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Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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Smurf1976 said:
There's no certainty as to how all this ends, we're all observing and speculating to some extent, since there's no relevant precedent for current circumstances.
Click to expand...

There is no detailed certainty about how this could all end.
But if a car goes over a cliff we know what the general picture looks like.

Is this an appropriate metaphor ? I would suggest that this is the first time in history that a world as technologically integrated and vulnerable has been exposed to a pandemic that still out of control and undermining more and more elements of the thousands of wheels that keep the current world turning.

We have already become acutely aware of supply lines of scores of essential products.

Let's hope we can get on top of this collectively.

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Cheers to all the people working their butts off to keep themselves, their businesses and the wheels still turning.
Many of us arn't facing that challenge and it is too easy to forget that the industrial world we see doesn't just continue by magic.
 
Don't worry about the short term. Be concerned about the long-term. This could cost heaps.

Parkinsonism as a Third Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic? - IOS Press

Since the initial reports of COVID-19 in December 2019, the world has been gripped by the disastrous acute respiratory disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus. There are an ever-increasing number of reports of neurological symptoms in patients, from s
content.iospress.com
 
Here's a depressing reality:

Sales of EXISTING (not new, but EXISTING) homes are at their all time peak, matching what they were in 2006 just before the GFC.



Anyone care to guess why?
 
over9k said:
Here's a depressing reality:

Sales of EXISTING (not new, but EXISTING) homes are at their all time peak, matching what they were in 2006 just before the GFC.



Anyone care to guess why?
Click to expand...

Hey mate, why is that depressing ?
 
Coronavirus lethality. Old(er) people dying and their estates (homes) being sold.

Doesn't account for all of the data obviously, but it's reality.
 
over9k said:
Coronavirus lethality. Old(er) people dying and their estates (homes) being sold.

Doesn't account for all of the data obviously, but it's reality.
Click to expand...

Hmmm

Not sure I agree with you there, generally older established homes on larger blocks are more desirable to those that can afford them, demand also pumped up by developers looking at carving up blocks, I see it all the time, really annoys me but not much I can do about it.

The disparity you're seeing could be due to the drop in demand on new builds in the outer suburbs, these are the most vulnerable of areas, where new migrants tend to reside.

Net immigration is on the slide...
 
Oh no doubt. The borders are closed. But if an old fart gets bumped off, there's going to be a house to sell, and it's really only old people that this thing is actually lethal for.

The U.S is at 200,000 and counting I believe.
 
over9k said:
Oh no doubt. The borders are closed. But if an old fart gets bumped off, there's going to be a house to sell, and it's really only old people that this thing is actually lethal for.

The U.S is at 200,000 and counting I believe.
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most of them are male and outlived by the (fitter generally) wives so hardly any change in term of newly deceased estates.sorry to disagree
 
over9k said:
Sales of EXISTING (not new, but EXISTING) homes are at their all time peak, matching what they were in 2006 just before the GFC.



Anyone care to guess why?
Click to expand...
My assumption is there's a degree of forced sales in that.

However many due to being dead and the rest because they can't pay the mortgage. Both are forced sellers, perhaps not technically by law but in practice, and will take the highest offer even if it's not as much as they really wanted. They're not in a position to wait for however many years etc.

Just my assumption there.
 
over9k said:
Here's a depressing reality:

Sales of EXISTING (not new, but EXISTING) homes are at their all time peak, matching what they were in 2006 just before the GFC.



Anyone care to guess why?
Click to expand...

Margin calls, loans etc

People are going broke, this is not a positive sign, but rather a negative one
 
cutz said:
There is also evidence here of an increase in excessive alcohol consumption due to I presume economic and/or other pressures.

Not being judgmental, just find it rather sad.
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Maybe not sad, just people drowning their sorrows as they have no or very little control of the situation in Melbourne, as Chairman Dan is in control and no pollie in Vic will accept any responsibility for the mishandling of the quarantine.

What is very sad is it take approx 45days to create a habit and in this case, alcoholism.
 
cutz said:
There is also evidence here of an increase in excessive alcohol consumption due to I presume economic and/or other pressures.

Not being judgmental, just find it rather sad.
Click to expand...
I'd read low pub numbers but high bottleshop numbers. So the two would cancel each other out perhaps?
 
over9k said:
I'd read low pub numbers but high bottleshop numbers. So the two would cancel each other out perhaps?
Click to expand...
I don't know the current figures but under normal circumstances bottle shops is where a large portion of alcohol is sold, the rest mostly pubs and restaurants as well as things like festivals, a tiny minority at nightclubs and other after-midnight venues.

It would only need a fairly small % increase in bottle shop sales to offset a large decline in the other outlets.

On the other side, well it has been reported that some breweries have dumped large quantities of beer earlier in the pandemic. Tanker loads of it were sent straight to sewage works where it was added later in the process and ultimately turned into electricity (alcohol + sewage sludge > CH4 > internal combustion generating set > electricity) since that was the only use for it that had any value at all given its short shelf life.

The sewage works at Glenelg (Adelaide) was going through about 900 litres of beer an hour, 24 hours per day, a while ago getting rid of it. Was delivered to site in tankers not via the sewer pipes.
 
If Trump wins the election I think there will be a huge resurgence in domestic manufacturing, and as smurf has said a massive unwinding of globalisation, which started with good intentions but has run its course.
The virus has probably been the catalyst needed to bring the issue to a head.
If Trump loses, well it will be an interesting future for Australia IMO, how Australia will stop China buying us will be interesting.
Time will tell but interesting times ahead, in the next 6 months. ?
 
I think if Trump wins we are more susceptible to China. Trump is a unilaterast, willing to do deals such as beef to undercut our interests as well as leave us naked against China's might. Fortunately China has reneged on the deals due to Trumps verbal attacks

It has been a lesson for us and we must (and are now) forming partnerships with other middle powers to resist the bullying. Vietnam, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, we must act together.
 
Agree with second part of post, not the first, but that is no surprise.TDS or not, China is not our economic friend.
 
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