Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Chronos-Plutus]

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These changes will get people working again, cannot see wage growth going anywhere.

Wage growth hasn't been going anywhere for a long time anyway. The problem I see is that the government thinks that they can keep the draconian business and civil restrictions while trimming the JobKeeper and JobSeeker.

We can expect more crime, more civil unrest and more protest in the coming months; when we already have a stretched police force trying enforce the draconian business and civil restrictions.

It is pretty simple really; if the JobKeeper and JobSeeker are to be trimmed, then the draconian business and civil restrictions need to be lifted.

It defies basic economics to think that the economy can function properly and jobs will come back when you're restricting people from going about their business; like you can only have X people at a function/event, every second table needs to be vacant in your restaurant, people need to work from home, people can't travel and move freely.

Anyway; large corporations are trimming their work forces. Didn't the NRL announce today that they are axing 25% of their workforce? Haven't QANTAS axed like 50% of their workforce?

Now the stock market looks like it is tanking again, wiping out trillions of dollars of private wealth, and the government thinks cutting income taxes right now is going to stimulate the economy when the economy can't function properly anyway due to the draconian business and civil restrictions and so many people are out of work.

So I am not sure how all this fits in with the government's economic reality.

 

[Junior]

Wage growth hasn't been going anywhere for a long time anyway. The problem I see is that the government thinks that they can keep the draconian business and civil restrictions while trimming the JobKeeper and JobSeeker.

We can expect more crime, more civil unrest and more protest in the coming months; when we already have a stretched police force trying enforce the draconian business and civil restrictions.

It is pretty simple really; if the JobKeeper and JobSeeker are to be trimmed, then the draconian business and civil restrictions need to be lifted.

It defies basic economics to think that the economy can function properly and jobs will come back when you're restricting people from going about their business; like you can only have X people at a function/event, every second table needs to be vacant in your restaurant, people need to work from home, people can't travel and move freely.

Anyway; large corporations are trimming their work forces. Didn't the NRL announce today that they are axing 25% of their workforce? Haven't QANTAS axed like 50% of their workforce?

Now the stock market looks like it is tanking again, wiping out trillions of dollars of private wealth, and the government thinks cutting income taxes right now is going to stimulate the economy when the economy can't function properly anyway due to the draconian business and civil restrictions and so many people are out of work.

So I am not sure how all this fits in with the government's economic reality.

Victoria will be fully operating again within weeks, aside from a handful of sectors which cannot 'socially distance' effectively, like events.

I would also expect state borders will largely come down by Christmas and we should see BIG interstate movement. Families have been kept apart for too long and many will be itching to travel interstate.

 

[over9k]

doubt.jpg

 

[over9k]

Furniture sales are also stratospheric.

I own fedex & ups.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Victoria will be fully operating again within weeks, aside from a handful of sectors which cannot 'socially distance' effectively, like events.

I would also expect state borders will largely come down by Christmas and we should see BIG interstate movement. Families have been kept apart for too long and many will be itching to travel interstate.

Well let's hope so. I would have thought that it would be prudent to first see Victoria operating again and at least have a major lifting of the majority of business and civil restrictions; along with a sustained reduction in COVID cases, before trimming the JobKeeper and JobSeeker.

I see this move to trim the JobKeeper and JobSeeker now as a major unnecessary gamble that is premature and which is likely to cause more problems for everyone.

 

[Junior]

You're applying a false equivalency. The economic harm was not caused by deaths. The economic harm was caused by the global economic situation. It is a completely false narrative that the economic harm is caused by the amount of people getting infected by this virus. Again I remind you of the previous country I was in (which I just use as an example because it was the most recent country I was in, but there are many others demonstrating the same concept) which has had extremely low virus infections/deaths and extreme economic harm. The economic harm is being caused because of the global situation, and this would affect Thailand with or without high virus numbers or lockdowns etc (as it happens, the have very low virus numbers with only a single death in more than the last 100 days and only about half a dozen infections). Sweden was also going to have its economic problems regardless of whether or not it had a virus issue. Like Thailand (and countless countries around the world), even if they magically had 100% immunity from the virus within their own borders, the economic issue would still hit them.

The economic harm is caused indirectly by this virus, and associated illness and death. The economy relies on consumer confidence and free movement of people, the virus has interfered with that.

Even with no restrictions imposed by Government, restricted movement and activity will occur.

People do not want to catch a new virus, which is 3 times deadlier than the common flu, far more contagious, has no vaccine and where there is no evidence as to the long term implications of the contracting the illness.

They will not want to catch a virus, which means if they visit their elderly parents they might kill them or make them very sick. As has been pointed out, hospitals and aged care facilities have staff and visitors flowing in and out every day. You can't just lock up the elderly, and have the virus exclusively circulate amongst young and healthy people. It will infiltrate those facilities one way or another.

Likewise with any business, if they were to operate as normal and ignore the virus, they open themselves up to being liable for not keeping staff or customers safe. Without restrictions, people will not want to congregate in groups or crowds if this virus is circulating in the community. And Business will not want to be seen to be facilitating spread of the virus.

My point is, there is massive economic damage, regardless of Government-imposed restrictions. This thing isn't just an overblown figment of our collective imagination which can be ignored, it is real.

I'm not commenting on Australia's strategy or the severity of the restrictions imposed in Melbourne. I don't agree with curfews and the extent to which businesses have been closed down. I'm just pointing out, that there is every chance that we'll look back in a year or two and find that Australia's strategy worked out OK, compared with the likes of the UK and the US. In any case, it's too soon to definitely determine who handled it best.

 

[over9k]

Just look at the U.S - even if things reopen legally, people aren't just going back to their previous habits. Movie cinemas, bars, restaurants, sports stadiums etc etc etc are all ghost towns.

And then there's europe getting massacred all over again now.

 

[Smurf1976]

Even with no restrictions imposed by Government, restricted movement and activity will occur.

I've definitely got some doubts that people will be keen to travel further than they can quickly return home from given the precedent of people being literally locked out of their own state or country for extended periods.

Someone who lives in WA for example and goes to Sydney is taking a known and uninsurable risk of being stuck in NSW, potentially for months.

In contrast if someone in Melbourne drives to Adelaide, emphasis there on the word "drives", and pays close attention to the news well then they should be able to get back across the border in time if things turn bad again. Anyone relying on public transport (especially air or sea travel) or going further than they could realistically drive in a day is taking a risk of ending up stuck.

It's going to be a problem for the state governments I'm thinking. If the states want tourists from other states well then they all need to convince the masses that there's no risk of ending up stuck. In the meantime, I can see Victorians getting out and about but mostly within Victoria and same for the rest.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I've definitely got some doubts that people will be keen to travel further than they can quickly return home from given the precedent of people being literally locked out of their own state or country for extended periods.

Someone who lives in WA for example and goes to Sydney is taking a known and uninsurable risk of being stuck in NSW, potentially for months.

In contrast if someone in Melbourne drives to Adelaide, emphasis there on the word "drives", and pays close attention to the news well then they should be able to get back across the border in time if things turn bad again. Anyone relying on public transport (especially air or sea travel) or going further than they could realistically drive in a day is taking a risk of ending up stuck.

It's going to be a problem for the state governments I'm thinking. If the states want tourists from other states well then they all need to convince the masses that there's no risk of ending up stuck. In the meantime, I can see Victorians getting out and about but mostly within Victoria and same for the rest.

I think the Federal and State governments should get the Ghan and Indian Pacific trains up and running again:

Journey Beyond Rail - The Ghan, Indian Pacific & Great Southern

A legendary past, a new era of experience. Traversing far and wide across the country, The Ghan and Indian Pacific are icons of Australia.

journeybeyondrail.com.au

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

There are serious problems in Australia when we have 5 armed and aggressive police officers threatening 2 elderly ladies sitting on a park bench, in Melbourne, who have really done nothing wrong. How is the economy suppose to function properly when there are these sort of draconian civil restrictions?

Just to really call a spade a spade; obviously these Grandmas don't share the absurd and disconnected concerns of some people about the virus.

 

[Junior]

There are serious problems in Australia when we have 5 armed and aggressive police officers threatening 2 elderly ladies sitting on a park bench, in Melbourne, who have really done nothing wrong. How is the economy suppose to function properly when there are these sort of draconian civil restrictions?

Just to really call a spade a spade; obviously these Grandmas don't share the absurd and disconnected concerns of some people about the virus.

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I agree...and I'm concerned about the growing police numbers and police powers, and wondering when we go back to 'normal', how much of this power will not revert back to pre-COVID levels.

In Australia, in general, we have a growing and increasingly draconian police presence, this year has really accelerated that trajectory.

The media will blame Andrews in Victoria of course, but memories are so short. At the most recent Victorian election, Matthew Guy's key promise was to be "tough on crime", by expanding police presence and sending more people to prison, for longer. Andrews was consistently accused of being 'soft on crime'. Now look at the narrative ;(

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I agree...and I'm concerned about the growing police numbers and police powers, and wondering when we go back to 'normal', how much of this power will not revert back to pre-COVID levels.

In Australia, in general, we have a growing and increasingly draconian police presence, this year has really accelerated that trajectory.

The media will blame Andrews in Victoria of course, but memories are so short. At the most recent Victorian election, Matthew Guy's key promise was to be "tough on crime", by expanding police presence and sending more people to prison, for longer. Andrews was consistently accused of being 'soft on crime'. Now look at the narrative ;(

Really it is Andrews and his ministry who makes the final decision; himself and the party will be judged by the electorate at the next election.

The police are just following orders.

What may eventuate is Labor losing governance in Victoria and Queensland, and the Coalition losing governance Federally. Not much political capital to waste under these conditions and circumstances.

A political middle road, to deal with COVID, for Premiers is WA and NSW; although I think Mark (WA) needs to lighten up domestically.

Andrews could have just requested that the people of Victoria be extra careful; only go out when needed, make sure to distance, wash hands, and so on. The vast majority of Victorians would have done the right thing and the COVID cases would have reduced eventually; instead he went full authoritarian/totalitarian.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I agree...and I'm concerned about the growing police numbers and police powers, and wondering when we go back to 'normal', how much of this power will not revert back to pre-COVID levels.

In Australia, in general, we have a growing and increasingly draconian police presence, this year has really accelerated that trajectory.

The media will blame Andrews in Victoria of course, but memories are so short. At the most recent Victorian election, Matthew Guy's key promise was to be "tough on crime", by expanding police presence and sending more people to prison, for longer. Andrews was consistently accused of being 'soft on crime'. Now look at the narrative ;(

Don't get me wrong; I think the international borders should be lock-tight until we see the end of the virus with a vaccine or it burns out. Domestically though we need to start being open-minded to lifting business and civil restrictions. Get a national COVID tracking entity established.

Time to move forward. At least tourism and business can do business again domestically.

Unfortunately I think that the Australians abroad shouldn't be allowed to come back home; they were warned just like SMART TRAVELER ADVICE FROM DFAT. They were told to come back home and they didn't; there should be no more international flights except for freight on goods of national importance.

 

[Smurf1976]

Andrews could have just requested that the people of Victoria be extra careful; only go out when needed, make sure to distance, wash hands, and so on. The vast majority of Victorians would have done the right thing

In principle agreed totally.

In practice there's an abundance of reports that people didn't do the right thing. That might only be a minority but it only needs a few and then there's an outbreak.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

In principle agreed totally.

In practice there's an abundance of reports that people didn't do the right thing. That might only be a minority but it only needs a few and then there's an outbreak.

Well he always could have claimed that he tried to advise his people of the right course of action, if the COVID cases never reduced. We are humans not robots. Economic destruction isn't really a justification for authoritarianism and totalitarianism based on weak data of a biological threat.

The statistical evidence based threat of current COVID cases in Victoria at the moment, in-fact across the nation, is weak as it is; health professional advisors are just winging it all on a prayer.

Does the statistical evidence in Australia (ENSURING INTERNATIONAL BORDERS ARE LOCK-TIGHT) so far justify absolute authoritarianism and totalitarianism for draconian business and civil restrictions across the nation?

International borders closed and domestic borders open with tracking and tracing. That is the balance, in my opinion.

 

[Smurf1976]

Unfortunately I think that the Australians abroad shouldn't be allowed to come back home; they were warned just like SMART TRAVELER ADVICE FROM DFAT. They were told to come back home and they didn't; there should be no more international flights except for freight on goods of national importance.

As a concept agreed but in practice plenty have been trying to get back right since the start of the whole thing and are still unable to do so.

The trouble with government issuing directions is that they forgot to direct the airlines to make it possible thus making the government's directions somewhat pointless and a classic case of good intentions but poor implementation.

That's the biggest problem I see going forward. Everyone who ever traveled anywhere before this wouldn't have assumed they'd be literally locked out of their own state or even country for no reason other than politics. Quarantining people upon return isn't rocket science after all, the only reason to not do it is politics. Now that the risk of being a victim of politics is known to everyone, it'll make at least some people more wary of travel in general I think.

Meanwhile we just let a billionaire in from the UK, of all places, to judge a reality TV show. If that doesn't make the fundamental problems with all this clear to everyone then nothing will. A reality TV show, of all things - about as unimportant a reason to travel as there could possibly be, especially so given there'd be no shortage of people already in the country who'd be capable of doing the job so there's zero excuse for that one.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Plenty have been trying to get back right since the start of the whole thing and are still unable to do so.

The trouble with government issuing directions is that they forgot to direct the airlines to make it possible thus making the government's directions somewhat pointless and a classic case of good intentions but poor implementation.

That's the biggest problem I see going forward. Everyone who ever traveled anywhere before this wouldn't have assumed they'd be literally locked out of their own state or even country for no reason other than politics. Quarantining people upon return isn't rocket science after all, the only reason to not do it is politics and incompetence by governments.

Meanwhile we just let a billionaire in from the UK, of all places, to judge a reality TV show. If that doesn't make the fundamental problems with all this clear to everyone then nothing will. A reality TV show, of all things - there'd be no shortage of people already in the country or citizens stranded overseas who'd be capable of doing the job so there's zero excuse for that one.

International borders closed and domestic borders open with tracking and tracing. That is the balance in my opinion.

 

[Smurf1976]

International borders closed and domestic borders open with tracking and tracing. That is the balance in my opinion.

Does Australia have no obligation to its citizens whatsoever?

'The airline bumped us': One stranded Aussie family never made it home, but their pets did

An Australian family stranded in London have expressed frustration their pet dog and cat have already arrived in Sydney while they are still stuck overseas.

www.abc.net.au

A classic case where money buys someone a way in.

Economically, well it doesn't send a good message for the average run of the mill traveler going forward - go literally anywhere and you could well find yourself stuck and effectively abandoned. That won't encourage travel.

If someone went overseas after the pandemic started then I agree with you but if they were already here and have no means of returning then the government's inability to run quarantine facilities needs to be rectified in my view. Get someone competent and put them in charge.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Does Australia have no obligation to its citizens whatsoever?

The country will pay a price for that economically going forward I expect since it sends a worrying message.

'The airline bumped us': One stranded Aussie family never made it home, but their pets did

An Australian family stranded in London have expressed frustration their pet dog and cat have already arrived in Sydney while they are still stuck overseas.

www.abc.net.au

The obligation was to advise our Australian citizens to immediately come home. The advice was ignored.

You tell someone to not jump off a bridge and they do; it is not your fault.

We are already paying for this virus. International borders shut and domestic borders open.

 

[Junior]

Andrews could have just requested that the people of Victoria be extra careful; only go out when needed, make sure to distance, wash hands, and so on. The vast majority of Victorians would have done the right thing and the COVID cases would have reduced eventually; instead he went full authoritarian/totalitarian.

A simple request to do the right thing would have been nice, but unfortunately the Vic government's hand was forced when every other state decided to lock Victoria out. We're left with no choice but to go full virus elimination to bring us back in line with the rest of the country.