Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Junior]

There is going to be a MASS exodus out of Melbourne this Summer. Hotspots will be super-crowded. May as well embrace it and be happy for business-owners, it will only be for a few weeks, then school & work will hopefully come back normally in late Jan.

 

[Smurf1976]

I heard that tourism is a net deficit for Australia.

That's what the statistics show yes. Australians traveling overseas take more money out of the country than foreign visitors bring to Australia so from a national wealth perspective it's a net loss.

It does generate activity and employment though that's for sure and that applies to Australians traveling domestically as well as international visitors.

 

[Smurf1976]

The surprise is they managed to go that long.i have not visited a flight center office in the last 10 year, travelled madly and am not even young.

Only people I know who've used travel agents in recent years are money rich and time poor.

They can find the time to take the trip but they know nothing about (say) Japan and don't have time to spend researching where to go and what to see there. They'll be more than happy to pay an agent to tell them that - they're not using them simply to make the booking.

Flight Centre with its focus on price probably isn't the best positioned to get those customers however since price isn't their focus, it's expertise they're looking for, price is whatever it is.

 

[qldfrog]

Only people I know who've used travel agents in recent years are money rich and time poor.

They can find the time to take the trip but they know nothing about (say) Japan and don't have time to spend researching where to go and what to see there. They'll be more than happy to pay an agent to tell them that - they're not using them simply to make the booking.

Flight Centre with its focus on price probably isn't the best positioned to get those customers however since price isn't their focus, it's expertise they're looking for, price is whatever it is.

money rich and time poor and IMHO probably internet illiterate? everything is there for the taking, just ask Siri or whoever is your tool of choice.
I really believe it is a matter of generation.

 

[qldfrog]

That's what the statistics show yes. Australians traveling overseas take more money out of the country than foreign visitors bring to Australia so from a national wealth perspective it's a net loss.

It does generate activity and employment though that's for sure and that applies to Australians traveling domestically as well as international visitors.

when an international visitor spend 1k in aus, it is spent here;
when an Australian spend 1k O/S he/she also spends money here: airport fees, booking Flight Center, parking, etc I would be VERY surprised if the overall balance is positive, plus while many would spend 10k for a world tour, I doubt many will spend 10k for a Victoria holidays....

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

Only people I know who've used travel agents in recent years are money rich and time poor.

They can find the time to take the trip but they know nothing about (say) Japan and don't have time to spend researching where to go and what to see there. They'll be more than happy to pay an agent to tell them that - they're not using them simply to make the booking.

Flight Centre with its focus on price probably isn't the best positioned to get those customers however since price isn't their focus, it's expertise they're looking for, price is whatever it is.

This could be a real positive in 2021.

Something I learnt this week...Australia has more than 100 caravan manufacturers. They are in for a massive boom over the coming 12 months. Every second person you speak to in Melbourne is planning a roadtrip, the highways are going to be chockas with campervans, caravans and motorhomes. It will be great for rural/regional Australia!

It will be great for rural/regional Australia!
I heard @Garpal Gumnut is ecstatic at the idea, as is every country person who will crawl at 60km/h to drive to their GP appointment or weekly shopping run 120km away.

Flight Centre and those atrocious Grey Nomads seem to be flavour of the day on the thread today.

A similar demographic plague both.

The CruisingVisitVeniceSailthebloodyDanube Brigade and Grey Nomads travel in packs. Whether it is behind me in Economy Class or along the Hume Highway heading towards Queensland from dreadful places like East Bentleigh they are the same. Luckily when I fly, Qantas keep them away from me by curtaining First and Business Class from them.

Along our Western Queensland Highways these wretches having shopped in Aldi or some other foreign shop trundle along at 80k and descend on towns which are doing quite well thank you from agriculture and mining.

I cannot wait for Flight Centre to open again. I couldn't give a rats if the money goes overseas. The thought of more grey nomads makes me want to start a North and West Queensland Party to secede from Australia.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

Flight Centre and those atrocious Grey Nomads seem to be flavour of the day on the thread today.

A similar demographic plague both.

The CruisingVisitVeniceSailthebloodyDanube Brigade and Grey Nomads travel in packs. Whether it is behind me in Economy Class or along the Hume Highway heading towards Queensland from dreadful places like East Bentleigh they are the same. Luckily when I fly, Qantas keep them away from me by curtaining First and Business Class from them.

Along our Western Queensland Highways these wretches having shopped in Aldi or some other foreign shop trundle along at 80k and descend on towns which are doing quite well thank you from agriculture and mining.

I cannot wait for Flight Centre to open again. I couldn't give a rats if the money goes overseas. The thought of more grey nomads makes me want to start a North and West Queensland Party to secede from Australia.

gg

was not expecting less GG

 

[sptrawler]

That's what the statistics show yes. Australians traveling overseas take more money out of the country than foreign visitors bring to Australia so from a national wealth perspective it's a net loss.

It does generate activity and employment though that's for sure and that applies to Australians traveling domestically as well as international visitors.

Most who come to Australia, are adventure seeking backpackers.
Most Australians who travel OS, are cashed up and cover all age groups.
It is only while Aussies are at home, they can get away with bleating about how poor they are and pizzing in everyones pocket. When OS everyone knows they are cash cows.lol

 

[Smurf1976]

money rich and time poor and IMHO probably internet illiterate?

Not internet illiterate just time poor and lacking knowledge of where to go and what to see when they get there.

Yes they could research it themselves but that applies to pretty much anything - apart from disabled etc nobody else needs someone to mow their lawns, wash their car or do basic carpentry for example but in practice many choose to pay someone to do it.

 

[qldfrog]

Most who come to Australia, are adventure seeking backpackers.
Most Australians who travel OS, are cashed up and cover all age groups.
It is only while Aussies are at home, they can get away with bleating about how poor they are and pizzing in everyones pocket. When OS everyone knows they are cash cows.lol

Some truth but in the last 5y/ decade the os visitors were joined by Chinese travel groups.
While i have no doubt most of the associated companies, a nice inner club, would have reported quite a low tax return profit, the inbound money, associated purchases of UGGs, wool doonas, abalones,etc within our domestic market was extremely significant and i doubt any of that is included in our travel comparison figures.not to mention associated kids uni fees and unit purchased
A market gone and dusted.
As to Australian lining up to dream world or crocodile farms, good luck.once maybe but not twice.a whole industry slaughtered.who cares, we got welfare, debt and NDIS..

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

The economic effects of Covid will only become more clear when Government use of stimulus changes from short to longer term, and from individual to national rebuliding.

It does not look good for larger cities. They will have to depend on private investment and their internal economies to survive. Although it is a stretch for me to understand how many times a cup of coffee can be sold back and forth to make an economy, that is what Melbourne plans at present.

Agriculture and mining will survive, the latter seems like a better bet, although the former has kept us going for tens of thousands of years. A reset may be inevitable with smaller crop holding entities and less industrialisation due to manpower shortage.

It is possible to recover with a smaller population, the Germans did it twice in the 20th century albeit with significant inflation.

Interesting times.

gg

 

[over9k]

And in ever-repeating news:



It's almost as if a lot of people actually prefer to work remotely. Apparently sitting in traffic or sardine-crammed into a train for two hours a day sucks. Who knew?

Evidently there's a productivity hit to (some) people and so you can negotiate a pay cut to drop your productivity if it means you get to work from home.

Not even a tradeoff if you have a home office/don't lose any productivity. You could probably even negotiate a raise as your employer is no longer renting office space for you.

All round win.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

"I must again repeat what the assailants of utilitarianism seldom have the justice to acknowledge, that the happiness which forms the utilitarian standard of what is right in conduct is not the agent's own happiness but that of all concerned." (John Stuart Mill)

Perhaps Danny boy might like to read some books before he burns them ?

Now that we all are having a laugh.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

These dumb idiot politicians will jump how high requested when off-beat health professionals tell them to act, but when a military professional says not to buy some dud French subs to defend the nation; it is a different story.

PATHETIC PEOPLE IN CANBERRA!

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I am not suggesting to take an aggressive posture towards China at the moment. China seems to struggle with their ancient Eastern philosophy:

46 When a country is in harmony with the Tao, the factories make trucks and tractors. When a country goes counter to the Tao, warheads are stockpiled outside the cities. There is no greater illusion than fear, no greater wrong than preparing to defend yourself, no greater misfortune than having an enemy. Whoever can see through all fear will always be safe.

If only they could adopt such a peaceful philosophy.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I am not suggesting to take an aggressive posture towards China at the moment. China seems to struggle with their ancient Eastern philosophy:

46 When a country is in harmony with the Tao, the factories make trucks and tractors. When a country goes counter to the Tao, warheads are stockpiled outside the cities. There is no greater illusion than fear, no greater wrong than preparing to defend yourself, no greater misfortune than having an enemy. Whoever can see through all fear will always be safe.

If only they could adopt such a peaceful philosophy.

In my opinion we still trade as friends, however we can't accept foreign control of our essential infrastructure, farm land, and utilities. Just the same as China.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

How is this for you Dan Andrews; still getting paid your few hundred thousand a year?

"In man's life his time is a mere instant, his existence a flux, his perception fogged, his whole bodily composition rotting, his mind whirligig, his fortune unpredictable, his fame unclear." (Marcus Aurelius)

Just grabbed it out of my library for you.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

So this is the deal:

Those idiots in Canberra will do their dirty deals for the French subs; and in return I am left alone to get my job in a library: Fair?

 

[over9k]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

"More than half of companies plan to shrink their offices as working from home becomes a regular fixture after the Covid-19 pandemic ends, according to a survey by Cisco Systems Inc.



Some 53% of larger organizations plan to reduce the size of their office space and more than three quarters will increase work flexibility. Almost all of the respondents were uncomfortable returning to work because they fear contracting the virus, the poll found.



Cisco, the largest maker of networking equipment, recently surveyed 1,569 executives, knowledge workers and others who are responsible for employee environments in the post-Covid era. The findings suggest many of this year’s radical changes to work life will remain long after the pandemic subsides.



The poll, conducted for Cisco by Dimensional Research, concluded that working from home is the “new normal.” More than 90% of respondents said they won’t return to the office full time. 12% plan to work from home all the time, 24% will work remotely more than 15 days of each month, while 22% will do that eight to 15 days every month".



Cisco's stock price has fallen off a cliff since mid july as this is not exactly recent news:




And thomson-reuters might be realising that this is work in the modern age/commercial real estate isn't going to recover and so are cutting their losses whilst they can:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

"Thomson Reuters Corp. is exploring the sale of its 50% stake in Manhattan office tower 3 Times Square, becoming the latest media giant to rethink its property holdings, according to people with knowledge of the matter.



The company has tapped an adviser to solicit potential interest in buying Thomson Reuters’ stake in the property, which it co-owns alongside Rudin Management Co., said the people, who asked not to be identified because the matter is private. The 32-story building serves as a hub for the news service.



No final decisions have been made and the company could retain the property, which opened in 2001 and includes roughly 885,000 square feet (82,000 square meters) of space -- as well as outdoor billboard space for rent. It’s not immediately clear how much the building would fetch in a sale, but at $800 per square foot, it could be valued at roughly $700 million".


As I've said before, working from home is actually a massive increase in efficiency if done right, so unless a lot of commercial real estate is rezoned & refitted as residential, it's done for on account of simply no longer being needed.

 

[qldfrog]

And in ever-repeating news:

View attachment 112672

It's almost as if a lot of people actually prefer to work remotely. Apparently sitting in traffic or sardine-crammed into a train for two hours a day sucks. Who knew?

Evidently there's a productivity hit to (some) people and so you can negotiate a pay cut to drop your productivity if it means you get to work from home.

Not even a tradeoff if you have a home office/don't lose any productivity. You could probably even negotiate a raise as your employer is no longer renting office space for you.

All round win.

About that win win, if you dig a bit deeper:
What FB has just announced aka Mark Z:
In the name of fairness ROL:
If you do work from home and relocate in a cheaper area, you will have a pay cut as your living costs..aka mortgages etc are lower
You will also discover in numerous new studies that you are expected to work more, and be at call...
A great socialist heaven of equal pay worldwide with capitalist plus of being based on the lowest denominator aka lowest pay.
A scam within a scam for the masses.
DYOR
Just wondering how long it will take for people to wake up? The "you are fired " notice in the mail (or SMS) or before?