- Joined
- 8 June 2008
- Posts
- 12,424
- Reactions
- 18,088
Yes he is, but he will not sell to China for peanuts or beef.Of course,he doesn't care about Australia.
which is great for Americans..
Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak
- Thread starter greggles
- Start date
which is great for Americans..
- Joined
- 8 June 2008
- Posts
- 12,424
- Reactions
- 18,088
I mean sell his soul /bargaining chip..not talking trade here
over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
- Joined
- 12 June 2020
- Posts
- 5,225
- Reactions
- 7,315
Trump absolutely bent the canadians over the proverbial with the new nafta. He's about as america-first as it gets. Here's an excellent half-hour video on america's nafta play, i.e what they did to whom and why:
And he had very good reason to do so - canada is not the trading partner of the future:
In fact, mexico actually is:
This becomes especially so when you consider how much cheaper mexico's labour is and the fact that american shale oil, natural gas etc can literally just be plumbed straight across the border from texas to mexico to combine dirt cheap energy with dirt cheap labour:
Trudeau and his left wing lunacy combined with america and canada's left wing loons have also managed to block every single proposed pipeline out of alberta:
The one everyone's probably heard of is the keystone XL but there were plenty of others proposed. The energy east one was going to be a big one and Montreal mayor Denis Coderre appeared to be in a celebratory mood after the cancellation. According to Global News, “The mayor who has been the strongest opponent in Quebec of the pipeline that would have carried Alberta bitumen from Alberta to the Atlantic coast, said he was proud of work done by those who tried to stop it.”
Anyways, this has left the albertans with absolutely nowhere to actually sell their oil except canada and the united states, which is a market already unbelievably saturated by shale oil, which is far higher quality (requires far far less refinement) and therefore a market in which the albertans simply cannot compete.
What makes this even worse is that alberta is the only canadian province that's actually been a net tax payer (and in a BIG way) into the system for years now - all the other states are overwhelmingly dependent on its money and they seem to be doing their level best to kill the only golden goose they have.
All this combines to result in alberta being canada's only overwhelmingly conservative province and there now being a major secession movement within alberta because they are just so sick to death of the rest of the country both living at their expense and stopping them from actually earning a living themselves.
Again, this was all in motion long before trump:
The only thing being allies did is stop the yanks being outright hostile to them. Even then, they were still slapped with the same import tariffs on steel, aluminium etc that everyone else got, which have since been removed.
But the key takeaway here is that trump & lighthizer didn't (and don't) give a **** about canada in the slightest. All all of this did was enable the americans to **** them even more - and they did. NAFTA has basically finished canada - american's longest running/closest ally.
The only thing that matters here is leverage. Thankfully, australia does actually have some of that what with controlling roughly 55% of the world's iron ore supply, and it's about the only leverage this country has over anyone with anything on the entire global stage. Without it, australia is nearly as f***ed as canada is.
And he had very good reason to do so - canada is not the trading partner of the future:
In fact, mexico actually is:
This becomes especially so when you consider how much cheaper mexico's labour is and the fact that american shale oil, natural gas etc can literally just be plumbed straight across the border from texas to mexico to combine dirt cheap energy with dirt cheap labour:
Trudeau and his left wing lunacy combined with america and canada's left wing loons have also managed to block every single proposed pipeline out of alberta:
The one everyone's probably heard of is the keystone XL but there were plenty of others proposed. The energy east one was going to be a big one and Montreal mayor Denis Coderre appeared to be in a celebratory mood after the cancellation. According to Global News, “The mayor who has been the strongest opponent in Quebec of the pipeline that would have carried Alberta bitumen from Alberta to the Atlantic coast, said he was proud of work done by those who tried to stop it.”
Anyways, this has left the albertans with absolutely nowhere to actually sell their oil except canada and the united states, which is a market already unbelievably saturated by shale oil, which is far higher quality (requires far far less refinement) and therefore a market in which the albertans simply cannot compete.
What makes this even worse is that alberta is the only canadian province that's actually been a net tax payer (and in a BIG way) into the system for years now - all the other states are overwhelmingly dependent on its money and they seem to be doing their level best to kill the only golden goose they have.
All this combines to result in alberta being canada's only overwhelmingly conservative province and there now being a major secession movement within alberta because they are just so sick to death of the rest of the country both living at their expense and stopping them from actually earning a living themselves.
Again, this was all in motion long before trump:
The only thing being allies did is stop the yanks being outright hostile to them. Even then, they were still slapped with the same import tariffs on steel, aluminium etc that everyone else got, which have since been removed.
But the key takeaway here is that trump & lighthizer didn't (and don't) give a **** about canada in the slightest. All all of this did was enable the americans to **** them even more - and they did. NAFTA has basically finished canada - american's longest running/closest ally.
The only thing that matters here is leverage. Thankfully, australia does actually have some of that what with controlling roughly 55% of the world's iron ore supply, and it's about the only leverage this country has over anyone with anything on the entire global stage. Without it, australia is nearly as f***ed as canada is.
IFocus
You are arguing with a Galah
- Joined
- 8 September 2006
- Posts
- 7,472
- Reactions
- 4,467
The problem with iron ore is if war breaks out, we will all be speaking Chinese before you know it.
- Joined
- 22 May 2020
- Posts
- 1,276
- Reactions
- 681
The waste-to-energy plant that was stolen from me in North Queensland; YES IT WAS ME!:
Want me to keep painting the skeleton
Want me to keep painting the skeleton
Last edited:
- Joined
- 30 June 2008
- Posts
- 15,357
- Reactions
- 7,232
Indeed Australia does have mountains of iron ore . And to date China is our largest customer.
So hypothetically consider these scenarios as responses to the current Aust/China tensions.
1) China starts to delay/knock back Australian iron ore shipments as it pours investments into Brazil iron ore and develops its own mines elsewhere in Africa.
2) Australia heroically follows US policy and decides that Chinas expanding influence in Asia is now politically unacceptable and gives China and the iron ore industry 6 months notice that all iron ore exports to China will cease
China eyes African prospects to iron out trade tension with Australia | Lowy Institute
Investing in largely untapped iron ore sources in Africa might be Beijing’s answer to diversifying import sources.
www.lowyinstitute.org
'Ultimately it's not going to work': Economist downplays China's trade threats
China's dispute with Australia is so far skirting the biggest trade between the two countries, iron ore. But while some analysts are worried the dispute will extend there, others say China will eventually have to back down.
www.abc.net.au
over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
- Joined
- 12 June 2020
- Posts
- 5,225
- Reactions
- 7,315
The major problem the chinese have reference brazil is that brazil's been absolutely wasted by coronavirus. They've been desperate to secure an independent mineral(s) supply for years - hence the "new silk road" or "belt and road" plan and all the unbelievably dodgy **** they've been up to in africa.
The bigger problem they have is geography - they import almost everything they need: All their raw materials, their oil, energy, everything. The whole country is a step along a supply chain, not an end consumer market or the beginning point of it like australia is what with providing the raw materials.
This has worked very well for the past 30 years as the yanks have secured the world's supply lines, most notably the persian gulf and the planet's oil. But with the shale oil revolution (and I don't use that term lightly) making the yanks oil independent, the last thread linking the americans to the wider world has been severed.
As a result, china has to figure out how to secure its own supply of almost everything when almost every single neighbour and distant cousin it has absolutely hates them. Visually, it looks like this:
That skirmish between the indians & the chinese a few weeks ago is just the beginning. Almost every single neighbour china has is capable of cutting off its supply of something critical - oil, iron ore, food, whatever. Geographically, china is completely hemmed in. Numbers count for nothing - what good is a 50 million strong standing army if a couple of warships placed in shipping-lane choke points can cut half their food supply off? Or oil?
If the yanks (or almost anyone else) wanted to, they could place china under siege conditions within a week. There is a reason why a 50 million strong chinese army hasn't made everyone in its neighbourhood its bitch:
It can't.
But this is only the first half of the disaster. Here's what china's demographics used to look like:
And here's what it now does:
China is the 3rd fastest ageing nation in the world behind japan & south korea. In 50 years' time there will be approximately 500 million fewer chinese in the world.
This matters because not only does china rely on access to the rest of the world for its inputs, but because of that massive baby bust after 1990, it relies on access to the rest of the world's consumer markets to sell its stuff as well because after that 30-34 age group, there's nobody left in china to actually sell anything to.
That big spike in the 30-34 age group is responsible for the entirety of all the "china's on a massive rise and going to take over the world" carryon we've been hearing for basically the entirety of the 2010's.
Now, this is an economics forum so I don't think I need to give everyone a lesson in demographic economics. As you can see, that rise is a total flash in the pan. It will fade as fast as that spike in population ages out of consumption age, i.e right now.
What is key to understand here is that it is actually the americans, who provide trade security for most of the planet (both export and import) which actually provide everything that make modern china possible. All the yanks need to do is take their aircraft carriers and go home, i.e pull the rug out, and the whole thing falls apart. They don't actually need to actively do anything to annihilate china, all they need to do is stop doing everything they are (were) doing.
When you combine this with the very simple fact america's demographics are so, so much more favourable than china's:
(The average american is now younger than the average chinaman just FYI)
You see it becomes very obvious that it is america which is the trading partner of the future, not china. It'd be america even if the yanks didn't pull the rug out from the chinese, but it becomes 100x so when you have a united states that's outright hostile to them. China is almost completely at their mercy, and the yanks are just pulling the rug out & letting the whole thing fall to pieces. Even the democrats are hawkish as hell on the chinese.
The entire country is one massive house of cards. All this nonsense you hear about china taking over the world etc is just that - total nonsense.
But boy does it get people to click on news articles
The bigger problem they have is geography - they import almost everything they need: All their raw materials, their oil, energy, everything. The whole country is a step along a supply chain, not an end consumer market or the beginning point of it like australia is what with providing the raw materials.
This has worked very well for the past 30 years as the yanks have secured the world's supply lines, most notably the persian gulf and the planet's oil. But with the shale oil revolution (and I don't use that term lightly) making the yanks oil independent, the last thread linking the americans to the wider world has been severed.
As a result, china has to figure out how to secure its own supply of almost everything when almost every single neighbour and distant cousin it has absolutely hates them. Visually, it looks like this:
That skirmish between the indians & the chinese a few weeks ago is just the beginning. Almost every single neighbour china has is capable of cutting off its supply of something critical - oil, iron ore, food, whatever. Geographically, china is completely hemmed in. Numbers count for nothing - what good is a 50 million strong standing army if a couple of warships placed in shipping-lane choke points can cut half their food supply off? Or oil?
If the yanks (or almost anyone else) wanted to, they could place china under siege conditions within a week. There is a reason why a 50 million strong chinese army hasn't made everyone in its neighbourhood its bitch:
It can't.
But this is only the first half of the disaster. Here's what china's demographics used to look like:
And here's what it now does:
China is the 3rd fastest ageing nation in the world behind japan & south korea. In 50 years' time there will be approximately 500 million fewer chinese in the world.
This matters because not only does china rely on access to the rest of the world for its inputs, but because of that massive baby bust after 1990, it relies on access to the rest of the world's consumer markets to sell its stuff as well because after that 30-34 age group, there's nobody left in china to actually sell anything to.
That big spike in the 30-34 age group is responsible for the entirety of all the "china's on a massive rise and going to take over the world" carryon we've been hearing for basically the entirety of the 2010's.
Now, this is an economics forum so I don't think I need to give everyone a lesson in demographic economics. As you can see, that rise is a total flash in the pan. It will fade as fast as that spike in population ages out of consumption age, i.e right now.
What is key to understand here is that it is actually the americans, who provide trade security for most of the planet (both export and import) which actually provide everything that make modern china possible. All the yanks need to do is take their aircraft carriers and go home, i.e pull the rug out, and the whole thing falls apart. They don't actually need to actively do anything to annihilate china, all they need to do is stop doing everything they are (were) doing.
When you combine this with the very simple fact america's demographics are so, so much more favourable than china's:
(The average american is now younger than the average chinaman just FYI)
You see it becomes very obvious that it is america which is the trading partner of the future, not china. It'd be america even if the yanks didn't pull the rug out from the chinese, but it becomes 100x so when you have a united states that's outright hostile to them. China is almost completely at their mercy, and the yanks are just pulling the rug out & letting the whole thing fall to pieces. Even the democrats are hawkish as hell on the chinese.
The entire country is one massive house of cards. All this nonsense you hear about china taking over the world etc is just that - total nonsense.
But boy does it get people to click on news articles
Last edited:
- Joined
- 30 June 2008
- Posts
- 15,357
- Reactions
- 7,232
Came across this story on stress testing of US banks.
The Feds want to be confident the Banks won't fall over as COVID continues to undermine the local and international economy. Essentially they want to know how banks would cope if the other side of a big deal falls over.
Sobering story.
The second story makes clear why the Feds should be taking such a close look at the stability of the big banks. There is a lot of furious paddling under the water.
The Fed Announces New Bank Stress Tests: Will Look at What Would Happen if a Major Counterparty Defaulted
Shhh! Don’t Tell the Fed these Wall Street Banks Have Tanked 34 to 48 Percent Year-to-Date. (The Fed Thinks They’re a “Source of Strength”)
....The safety and soundness of the U.S. financial system requires that banks that are sitting on more than $1 trillion in deposits not be highly-interconnected; not have tens of trillions of dollars in dangerous derivatives; not be holding trillions of dollars off their balance sheet; not be engaging in criminal activity; and are broken up when they show a serial pattern of wrongdoing. Jerome Powell’s Fed has failed to enforce every single one of those common sense rules when it comes to JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup.
The Feds want to be confident the Banks won't fall over as COVID continues to undermine the local and international economy. Essentially they want to know how banks would cope if the other side of a big deal falls over.
Sobering story.
The second story makes clear why the Feds should be taking such a close look at the stability of the big banks. There is a lot of furious paddling under the water.
The Fed Announces New Bank Stress Tests: Will Look at What Would Happen if a Major Counterparty Defaulted
The Fed Announces New Bank Stress Tests: Will Look at What Would Happen if a Major Counterparty Defaulted
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 17, 2020 ~ At the time the Fed released the results of its bank stress tests in June, it announced that because
wallstreetonparade.com
Shhh! Don’t Tell the Fed these Wall Street Banks Have Tanked 34 to 48 Percent Year-to-Date. (The Fed Thinks They’re a “Source of Strength”)
....The safety and soundness of the U.S. financial system requires that banks that are sitting on more than $1 trillion in deposits not be highly-interconnected; not have tens of trillions of dollars in dangerous derivatives; not be holding trillions of dollars off their balance sheet; not be engaging in criminal activity; and are broken up when they show a serial pattern of wrongdoing. Jerome Powell’s Fed has failed to enforce every single one of those common sense rules when it comes to JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup.
Shhh! Don’t Tell the Fed these Wall Street Banks Have Tanked 34 to 48 Percent Year-to-Date. (The Fed Thinks They’re a “Source of Strength”)
By Pam Martens and Russ Martens: September 24, 2020 ~ Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s oft repeated mantra this year – that the behemoth Wall
wallstreetonparade.com
over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
- Joined
- 12 June 2020
- Posts
- 5,225
- Reactions
- 7,315
Market research telling us nothing we couldn't intuit already: People with home offices have been more productive and people without them have been less productive.
Who would have thought?
- Joined
- 26 March 2014
- Posts
- 19,661
- Reactions
- 11,962
At last the government seems to be cottoning on to the plight of our manufacturing industry.
www.abc.net.au
Vaccines, recycling and space tech the focus of new manufacturing plan to grow local industries
The Federal Government will pump close to $1.5 billion into Australia's manufacturing sector, outlining plans to shore up local production and close holes in supply chains laid bare by COVID-19.
www.abc.net.au
- Joined
- 14 February 2005
- Posts
- 15,099
- Reactions
- 16,887
We can make it or mine it.
It's factories versus coal mines.
I'll take the former since the latter's ultimately doomed. I'd even happily pay more tax if it's actually being used to build a real future for the country.
To the extent any good comes from this pandemic, it's that it might bring about desperately needed changes that were always going to take some sort of crisis to see done.
- Joined
- 14 February 2005
- Posts
- 15,099
- Reactions
- 16,887
Flight Centre are closing more physical shopfronts.
As with most of this, once they're gone they're gone, they're unlikely to come back.
www.smh.com.au
As with most of this, once they're gone they're gone, they're unlikely to come back.
Flight Centre to close another 90 stores as border closures bite
Flight Centre will shut a further 90 stores across Australia as the ongoing closure of state and national borders keep holidaymakers grounded and the travel group in hibernation.
- Joined
- 8 June 2008
- Posts
- 12,424
- Reactions
- 18,088
The surprise is they managed to go that long.i have not visited a flight center office in the last 10 year, travelled madly and am not even young.Flight Centre are closing more physical shopfronts.
As with most of this, once they're gone they're gone, they're unlikely to come back.
Flight Centre to close another 90 stores as border closures bite
Flight Centre will shut a further 90 stores across Australia as the ongoing closure of state and national borders keep holidaymakers grounded and the travel group in hibernation.
Covid killing travel for the baby boomers, it will not come back.i have no understanding how could anyone see any value with flight center as a company
A horse cart manufacturerin 1920s equivalent..
PZ99
( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)
- Joined
- 13 May 2015
- Posts
- 3,303
- Reactions
- 2,403
"S&P said total state, territory and commonwealth debt reached $1tn for the first time in April"
www.theguardian.com
That's our money folks
Reserve Bank of Australia may have to buy state debt if Covid recovery slow, S&P says
Ratings agency says bank could use ‘monetary finance’ strategy its governor opposes as huge budget deficits threaten state credit ratings
That's our money folks
- Joined
- 26 March 2014
- Posts
- 19,661
- Reactions
- 11,962
I heard that tourism is a net deficit for Australia. ie there are more tourists going out and spending their money elsewhere than there are coming in and spending their money here.
So once our domestic borders are open, the local tourist industry could be in for a boom as those that once would have gone O/S spend their money here instead.
- Joined
- 15 November 2006
- Posts
- 1,205
- Reactions
- 678
This could be a real positive in 2021.
Something I learnt this week...Australia has more than 100 caravan manufacturers. They are in for a massive boom over the coming 12 months. Every second person you speak to in Melbourne is planning a roadtrip, the highways are going to be chockas with campervans, caravans and motorhomes. It will be great for rural/regional Australia!
- Joined
- 8 June 2008
- Posts
- 12,424
- Reactions
- 18,088
It will be great for rural/regional Australia!
I heard @Garpal Gumnut is ecstatic at the idea, as is every country person who will crawl at 60km/h to drive to their GP appointment or weekly shopping run 120km away.
- Joined
- 15 November 2006
- Posts
- 1,205
- Reactions
- 678
It will be great for rural/regional Australia!
I heard @Garpal Gumnut is ecstatic at the idea, as is every country person who will crawl at 60km/h to drive to their GP appointment or weekly shopping run 120km away.
haha yep, there will certainly be plenty of whinging from the locals. But unfortunately for a town to thrive, they need people moving through, visiting, spending money. After bushfires & then COVID, they will be desperate for it, the alternative is all your local business owners shutting up shop.
- Joined
- 8 June 2008
- Posts
- 12,424
- Reactions
- 18,088
My experience of the grey nomad in country towns is:
Might buy petrol if far enough from city but otherwise will camp for free at the rest , emty the wastes there and drive on to the next regional center to refill at ALDI woolies
If lucky, they might suffer a car break down and benefit the local garage but do not hold your breath
Cynical?
over9k
So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
- Joined
- 12 June 2020
- Posts
- 5,225
- Reactions
- 7,315
Depends if it's a tourist hotspot or not.
Otherwise, it's just a service town, probably relying on the local agriculture or something. Maybe a mine if it's lucky.
Otherwise, it's just a service town, probably relying on the local agriculture or something. Maybe a mine if it's lucky.
Similar threads
