Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[qldfrog]

It's not really suckers, the outcome is more nuanced than a binary set of options.

The risks have increased/ broadened, so it's best to position according to the new set of circumstances.

All yesterday and last night it was good news galore, asx going up this morning etc
Anyone who cares to know is aware of the trade freezing , collapsing demands etc
But your smsf, run of the mill managers read the media feels all good and buy the dip, with many more knowledgeable bigger players offloading at a great price.
Then the reverse will happen in a few months when the issue will be basically over or fully taken into account price wise.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

All yesterday and last night it was good news galore, asx going up this morning etc
Anyone who cares to know is aware of the trade freezing , collapsing demands etc....

Well, all I know is that I took some money off the table a few weeks ago. Its sitting there burning a hole, but/ and everything I sold is still cheaper than my sell prices. Watchful waiting....

 

[sptrawler]

We got the Times


https://www-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/02/11/business/china-coronavirus-commodities.amp.html?amp_js_v=a3&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQCKAE=#referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s&ampshare=https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/11/business/china-coronavirus-commodities.html

This is probably one of the reasons the financial sector in Aust is doing o.k, not as reliant on the China economy, as the miners.

 

[qldfrog]

Well, all I know is that I took some money off the table a few weeks ago. Its sitting there burning a hole, but/ and everything I sold is still cheaper than my sell prices. Watchful waiting....

I think you did the right move, it is probably the duty of governments to avoid panic, keep wallets open, and it is our duty as citizens to read thru the lines and not gulp any propaganda, whatever the subject

 

[fergee]

I think you did the right move, it is probably the duty of governments to avoid panic, keep wallets open, and it is our duty as citizens to read thru the lines and not gulp any propaganda, whatever the subject

Very well said, I couldn't agree more with that statement.

 

[Knobby22]

I think you did the right move, it is probably the duty of governments to avoid panic, keep wallets open, and it is our duty as citizens to read thru the lines and not gulp any propaganda, whatever the subject

I can't work out what's going on.

I haven't acted yet as I am looking for evidence. I'm actually up a bit likely due to the type of shares I hold (mostly biotech, new economy financials). Up again today.

Also according to the Market Index site overall volatility is low. Low?

It doesn't add up. I feel I am missing something.

Maybe the serious money has decided that the virus is not deadly enough to cause that much carnage? Or China will win and it won't spread?

These guys are paid to think about this stuff full time and I don't buy the line that government propaganda would be that effective.

 

[qldfrog]

I can't work out what's going on.

I haven't acted yet as I am looking for evidence. I'm actually up a bit likely due to the type of shares I hold (mostly biotech, new economy financials). Up again today.

Also according to the Market Index site overall volatility is low. Low?

It doesn't add up. I feel I am missing something.

Maybe the serious money has decided that the virus is not deadly enough to cause that much carnage? Or China will win and it won't spread?

These guys are paid to think about this stuff full time and I don't buy the line that government propaganda would be that effective.

In time like the top of a bubble as we are now, anything crazy can happen
I give you a scenario: if the virus get worse and the economy gets decimated in the street, the feds will print more and more and shares is the way to go
The worse the situation, the higher the market...

 

[Smurf1976]

It doesn't add up. I feel I am missing something.

In the absence of any other explanation my thinking is central bank intervention.

 

[flurbius]

I thought it wasn't in the interest of a virus to wipe out the host. A virus can only multiply in a cell, so it's not in its interest to kill off all people. I remember but can't source an article about the inverse relationship between severity of the outbreak and its longevity.

The relationship between a virus and its host evolves over time, eg in some cases a virus will jump to a new host - say from bats to humans, when it first does this it is at its most deadly, as the pair evolve the virus becomes less deadly, eventually having very little effect on the host. In some cases after a long enough time the two can become symbiotic, unable to exist without the other.

the bats that are the usual hosts of covid19 have no symptons at all.

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.newsyworld.com/youve-got-to-keep-buying-asx-inches-higher-despite-virus-uncertainty/
Basically, even if it is a catastrophic event, as long as the feds are printing, follow the lemmings

 

[qldfrog]

From time to time, it is good to scale things into perspective.
We now have better knowledge and at last a mortality rate
From my readings and i am happy to be proven otherwise, the mortality rate is around 2%,
If the virus can not be restricted to China, based on its ro it is expected to contaminate between 30 and 60 % of the world population
So for us in Australia, that would mean 26m x0.3x0.02 or 156,000 deaths
In perspective, the common flu kills below 1200 person in Australia in its worst year
And we record around 160k death in Australia per year
That virus would double the number.
These are available data taken conservatively, now you understand why the gov responses have been relatively strong
Note
To be more rigorous, some of the virus deads would have died otherwise anyway elderly etc so maybe just an increase of 100000 deaths a year...
Disclaimer:
I do own invocare and another company in that business domain

 

[Smurf1976]

Another way to look at it is that as a cause of death it’s minor compared to total deaths but it’s already bigger than any plane crash or industrial accident.

 

[Knobby22]

We know it's about 2% once you show symptoms but we really have no idea what percentage of people develop symptoms after catching it.

The ship off Japan is going to be very helpful. Unfortunately at present they can only test a small number of people per day.

 

[qldfrog]

Another way to look at it is that as a cause of death it’s minor compared to total deaths but it’s already bigger than any plane crash or industrial accident.

Not at 156,000 in Australia alone

 

[qldfrog]

And vaccine availability not before 18 months at the earliest

 

[qldfrog]

We know it's about 2% once you show symptoms but we really have no idea what percentage of people develop symptoms after catching it.

The ship off Japan is going to be very helpful. Unfortunately at present they can only test a small number of people per day.

Yes/no..i see your point but
You show symptom, you get tested and recorded but then if positive, your immediate family contacts get tested too, at least in parts of China and definitely outside China so you can be symptom less but recorded
The 2% is not really only for sick people
In any case, the death toll could realistically be well over cancer heart disease etc
It would become, hopefully for a one time only, the main death reason in the world..and this is not scenario "catastrophe"

 

[joeno]

behaviour of western countries (USA) is honestly shameless. Forget the whole donate or not donate. We all know western countries aren't donating a dime to this humanitarian crisis due to the fact that China is their "ethnic enemy".

But further to that instead of saying "ooh that's bad." The reaction is more like "haha! suckers! this is what you get for human rights. being bad blah blah" and bashing Chinese students wearing masks. When you try to debate, all of a sudden you're a Chinese government shill.

Next time there is a crisis like a bushfire or school shooting in the US / Australia I'm going to tell my Chinese friends rather than feeling bad they should just LAUGH OUT LOUD

 

[Knobby22]

Yes/no..i see your point but
You show symptom, you get tested and recorded but then if positive, your immediate family contacts get tested too, at least in parts of China and definitely outside China so you can be symptom less but recorded
The 2% is not really only for sick people
In any case, the death toll could realistically be well over cancer heart disease etc
It would become, hopefully for a one time only, the main death reason in the world..and this is not scenario "catastrophe"

According to ABC, 38 of 70 found with the virus had no symptons..... .as they slowly test everyone on the ship.

Since the only ones tested previously had symptoms I'm thinking that roughly 80% who catch it will not be effected.

Also we have better treatment systems.

So instead of 1 in 50 dying, I'm thinking maybe one in 500.

Still a hell of a lot, and will cause huge disruption.

 

[sptrawler]

If it is contained, which it probably will be, the virus will die out as SARS did.
It has to have an unhealthy host to breed up in, by reducing the movement of people the hosts decline and immunity in the healthy population overcomes it. Well that is my understanding.

 

[frugal.rock]

My thinking is, based off the deaths reported, I believe the spike was 2 or 3 days ago.
The daily figure is dropping. Which is good.
China has done a great job containing the spread.
Any other country and I am quite sure the containment wouldn't have been so stringent.
My thoughts are most restrictions will be lifted around 2 to 3 weeks from now.
The figures from the next few days will be figures decisions are made from IMO.
The economy hasn't been priority, however, every day that goes by, is putting pressure on governments.
No doubt, there will be spot outbreaks, and smaller geographic areas will be 'shut down'.
Whilst not out of the woods yet, the progress is happening.

F.Rock