Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[qldfrog]

According to ABC, 38 of 70 found with the virus had no symptons..... .as they slowly test everyone on the ship.

Since the only ones tested previously had symptoms I'm thinking that roughly 80% who catch it will not be effected.

Also we have better treatment systems.

So instead of 1 in 50 dying, I'm thinking maybe one in 500.

Still a hell of a lot, and will cause huge disruption.

I did not know the number you quoted ..good news..but as you said, even 1 out of 500 would still be high
And we have not yet realised economically the losses already incurred here in oz
Our miners SP and GDP figures are not yet affected, lag plus wishful? thinking?

 

[Knobby22]

I did not know the number you quoted ..good news..but as you said, even 1 out of 500 would still be high
And we have not yet realised economically the losses already incurred here in oz
Our miners SP and GDP figures are not yet affected, lag plus wishful? thinking?

Yes, that is bad news, not good news. It will likely be spread by people with little or no symptoms.

In the Age today, a great interview by Elizabeth Knight with Andrew Cuthbertson of CSL.
Also on AM today, Professor Suboro was interviewed by the ABC.

They are both indicating this virus is likely to be very contagious and I get the impression they have little hope of containment. Worth listening/reading for yourself if interested.

Back to work.

 

[qldfrog]

And let's not. Forget these are the CCP figures so to take with a grain of salt

 

[qldfrog]

Yes, that is bad news, not good news. It will likely be spread by people with little or no symptoms.

In the Age today, a great interview by Elizabeth Knight with Andrew Cuthbertson of CSL.
Also on AM today, Professor Suboro was interviewed by the ABC.

They are both indicating this virus is likely to be very contagious and I get the impression they have little hope of containment. Worth listening/reading for yourself if interested.

Back to work.

yes was going to post the link, interesting interview I agree with your feeling about containment, we will just have to hope these measures slow down the spread and wait for the vaccine.
Not a good time for the elderly, big wealth transfer ahead :-(

 

[basilio]

The struggles China is having with industrial production becasue of the spreading virus is having a knock on effect globally.

Apple is the best bellwether for the coronavirus fallout
Larry Elliott
Outbreak is supply and demand shock for tech giant and markets must wake up to the global risks

There are plenty of signs of the strains China’s economy is coming under as a result of the coronavirus. The sharp fall in German business confidence is one because Europe’s biggest economy suffers when demand for its exports falls. The decision by Cathay Pacific, Hong Kong’s flag carrier airline, to cancel 40% of its flights in February and March is another.

But the best bellwether of what has been happening in China is Apple, which has warned that it is on course to miss its revenue forecasts in the first three months of 2020. China is a big market for Apple – accounting for about one-sixth of its global revenues – and is the source of most of its products. The coronavirus represents a demand and a supply shock to the company.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...e-best-bellwether-for-the-coronavirus-fallout

 

[Dona Ferentes]

“In considering adjustment to our guidance for FY20 we have prudently taken into account the potential impact of COVID-19 on manufacturing and export trade, along with the continued growth of the group during 1H20, the power of the CargoWise platform, drivers of organic growth, annual customer attrition rate of less than 1 per cent and continued relentless investment in innovation and expansion across our global business," founder and chief executive Richard White, of WiseTech WTC, said in a statement.

Down 20% on reduced guidance

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Cancellations for cruise ships in Asia; but some local upside as they're redeployed. Sthn hemisphere season extended.

https://www.traveller.com.au/cruise...cancelled-cruises-and-redeployed-ships-h1lwn1

With the coronavirus outbreak showing little sign of slowing, cruise lines are abandoning Asia and sending their ships to different parts of the world, including several large ships heading to Australian waters. Some have even cancelled all trips in the region until the end of the year..

 

[qldfrog]

interesting this is the current front page of Al Jazeera:

now compare this with the national broadcaster of one of the most dependent economy:

unreal.. and ASX reaching new height..
https://www.aljazeera.com/programme...ak-effect-oil-gas-market-200215131949394.html

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...n/news-story/8f283b2c07461737574795553d9ed72f

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I can't believe the insouciance expressed in the market reaction to this virus. Every indicator seems to assume a stimulus, a lost month or so and then business as usual. And no flow on disruption. But it ain't going to be like that.

Firms in China's sprawling services sector, from restaurants and hotels to shops, cinemas and travel agents, have borne the brunt of the outbreak, besides small manufacturers that were just barely profitable, economists said. "The employment situation is OK in the first quarter, but if the virus is not contained by end-March, then from the second quarter, we'll see a big round of layoffs," said Dan Wang, an analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

Job losses could run as high as 4.5 million, she forecast. Private firms account for 80 per cent of urban employment.

 

[sptrawler]

I think a lot of money, is running back to Australian based income companies and away from those that rely on supply or demand from Asia.
Just my guess.
By the way, nice word, insouciance .

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Analysis by ch-aviation showed that as of last week, 1215 aircraft operated by airlines from China, Hong Kong and Macau were grounded, or 29 per cent of the total fleet. This included a third of China Eastern’s fleet, or 196 aircraft; the 173 aeroplanes operated by China Southern; the 119 aircraft belonging to Air China and the 100 jets at Hainan Airlines, which represents 44 per cent of its fleet. More than 100 aeroplanes were parked at Beijing Capital Airport, 79 at Guangzhou Baiyun International and 60 at Hangzhou International.

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.skynews.com.au/details/_6133998228001
Way for Chinese residents to bypass the travel ban...not really surprising

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...ivers-$250-million-hit-to-wa-tourism/11981048
WA tourism cost already estimated at $250m
So $1b overall plus students plus supplies issues coming in
Except of the usd/aud, the market is still aiming for the sky

 

[fergee]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...ivers-$250-million-hit-to-wa-tourism/11981048
WA tourism cost already estimated at $250m
So $1b overall plus students plus supplies issues coming in
Except of the usd/aud, the market is still aiming for the sky

The USD bull run is still in play. It will only get stronger before it starts a big slide down again. I would not be surprised to see it hit 62 or even below that, great for Aussie exporters, AUD POG and tourism once Covid-19 is under control.

 

[IFocus]

It Gets Surprisingly Ugly: US Freight Shipments Plunge 9.4%, Steepest since 2009
by Wolf Richter • Feb 19, 2020
But the coronavirus impact has not been felt yet; that will come later.

Shipment volume in the US by truck, rail, air, and barge plunged 9.4% in January 2020 compared to the already weak January a year earlier, according to the Cass Freight Index for Shipments. It was the 14th month in a row of year-over-year declines, and the steepest since October 2009, during the Financial Crisis:



https://wolfstreet.com/2020/02/19/i...ght-shipments-plunge-9-4-steepest-since-2009/

The market isn't reflecting this at all so assume all priced in.

 

[fergee]

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-5...news/world&link_location=live-reporting-story

"Covid-19 Costs airlines US$29 billion"

 

[Smurf1976]

Airlines, freight, tourism, universities.....

There would seem to be a major disconnect between the financial markets versus the real economy at present.

 

[SirRumpole]

At about the 18 minute mark Peter Hartcher gives some interesting observations of how China treats Australia vs how they treat the rest of the world.

https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/partyroom/thats-a-really-good-question!/11983380

 

[basilio]

Update on the effect of the CoronaVirus on Australia in particular product shortages

From batteries to shutters: Australian firms eye potential coronavirus shortages

Hospitality and travel have already been hard hit, while there are concerns of looming shortages of products such as iPhones and batteries

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ian-firms-eye-potential-coronavirus-shortages