Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Dona Ferentes]

They could but the thing about education exports is that actual education is only part of what's really being sold.

If the student doesn't physically end up in Australia then to considerable extent the value of the transaction has been eroded. Online etc is thus really only a very short term interim sort of solution.

indeed, the numbers moving from an education Visa at graduation to 457 or, hopefully, PR is astoundingly high

 

[Smurf1976]

Almost 400 million people are now under some from of coercive quarantine

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...ear-recession-world-holds-breath-coronavirus/

If that's correct then this is far, far worse than most seem to be assuming.

In Australian terms it's comparable to saying we've just locked down all of Brisbane plus literally the whole of WA, SA, NT and Tas. If we did that then without mining, farming, fishing, manufacturing, tourism and so on in those states running the country would be in quite a spot of bother rather quickly.

In the context of China, well 400 million's going to bring rather a lot of things to a halt surely?

 

[SirRumpole]

They could but the thing about education exports is that actual education is only part of what's really being sold.

If the student doesn't physically end up in Australia then to considerable extent the value of the transaction has been eroded. Online etc is thus really only a very short term interim sort of solution.

Sure, short term solutions for short term problems (hopefully that is what it will be).

At least it will let the students keep up with their courses until they can get here in person.

 

[basilio]

Update on the COVID-19 virus from World Health Organsiation. China is struggling to control the outbreak. Pouring billions in factories to keep them solvent. The risk to stability around the world is, they suggest, bigger than terrorism.

I suggest the economic impact will be felt far more quickly than markets are currently factoring.

Print Email Facebook Twitter More
WHO warns coronavirus, now dubbed COVID-19, is 'public enemy number 1' and potentially more powerful than terrorism
The first vaccine targeting the new coronavirus could be 18 months away, and the outbreak could end up creating a global threat potentially worse than terrorism, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned.
Key points:

• The novel coronavirus is now known as COVID-19
  
  • A British "super-spreader" is being held in quarantine despite making a full recovery
  • More than 1,000 people have died and more than 43,000 people have been infected

WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters in Geneva the vaccine lag meant "we have to do everything today using available weapons" and said the epidemic posed a "very grave threat".

"To be honest, a virus is more powerful in creating political, economic and social upheaval than any terrorist attack," Dr Ghebreyesus said.

"A virus can have more powerful consequences than any terrorist action.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-12/coronavirus-public-enemy-number-one-vaccine/11956446

 

[moXJO]

Update on the COVID-19 virus from World Health Organsiation. China is struggling to control the outbreak. Pouring billions in factories to keep them solvent. The risk to stability around the world is, they suggest, bigger than terrorism.

I suggest the economic impact will be felt far more quickly than markets are currently factoring.

Australia will feel the full force of any slowdown.
The virus is meh, the economic side for Australia is what has got me worried.

 

[notting]

16% in a day is no meh -

Shares in Blackmores sank 16 per cent after the high-flying vitamins producer unveiled a profit downgrade triggered by the coronavirus outbreak, which the company has conceded could disrupt its shipments to China for up to three months.

The pain will also be immediate, with the uncertainty around coronavirus and eroded margins prompting Blackmores to skip its interim dividend.

It is the latest company to warn that the spread of the coronavirus will play havoc with sales into China, as well as disrupting supply chains and transport links.

A2M has a pretty big suitcase trade too. Yet it is up.

 

[moXJO]

16% in a day is no meh -

Shares in Blackmores sank 16 per cent after the high-flying vitamins producer unveiled a profit downgrade triggered by the coronavirus outbreak, which the company has conceded could disrupt its shipments to China for up to three months.

The pain will also be immediate, with the uncertainty around coronavirus and eroded margins prompting Blackmores to skip its interim dividend.

It is the latest company to warn that the spread of the coronavirus will play havoc with sales into China, as well as disrupting supply chains and transport links.

A2M has a pretty big suitcase trade too. Yet it is up.

That was what I meant. The economic side of the flu will be worse than the overall health impacts.

 

[Smurf1976]

Shares in Blackmores sank 16 per cent

This one's a good illustration of the disconnect between the market and reality at present.

Shares in BKL were trending up, reaching a recent high on Thursday last week and then we have today's plunge.

Pretty clearly the expectations were very different from reality.

 

[sptrawler]

Well if we consider most of our junk comes from China and these days companies don't carry a lot of inventory, the retail wreckage thread come become very busy.IMO

 

[fergee]

This one's a good illustration of the disconnect between the market and reality at present.

Shares in BKL were trending up, reaching a recent high on Thursday last week and then we have today's plunge.

Pretty clearly the expectations were very different from reality.

Where does BKL source their ingredients from? It may be a supply chain issue as well as difficulties getting products into China.

 

[Smurf1976]

Well if we consider most of our junk comes from China and these days companies don't carry a lot of inventory, the retail wreckage thread come become very busy.IMO

We seem to be seeing quite a bit of the conventional business and economic ideas being called into question recently.

"Just in time inventory management" could be the next one?

 

[qldfrog]

That was what I meant. The economic side of the flu will be worse than the overall health impacts.

I will rephrase this as:
we do not know / have any idea of the overall health impacts but the economic side of the flu will be substantial

 

[moXJO]

Well if we consider most of our junk comes from China and these days companies don't carry a lot of inventory, the retail wreckage thread come become very busy.IMO

I was just about to whinge about this the other day. Nobody carries stock anymore. I try to get parts and end up having to wait a week all too frequently. Year's ago it was in and out with the part.

 

[sptrawler]

Tonight when I checked the mail, I asked the guy over the road about the issue, he imports outdoor furniture. He said he already has a problem with delays and people are cancelling their orders because of the delays, so it will become a big issue very quickly IMO. I wonder how companies like Hardly Normal will go, I wouldn't think they carry a big inventory, other than floor stock.
When we ordered a extendable dinning table and six chairs, we had to wait a couple of months, so I don't think it was in Australia. I could be wrong, time will tell.

 

[moXJO]

Tonight when I checked the mail, I asked the guy over the road about the issue, he imports outdoor furniture. He said he already has a problem with delays and people are cancelling their orders because of the delays, so it will become a big issue very quickly IMO. I wonder how companies like Hardly Normal will go, I wouldn't think they carry a big inventory, other than floor stock.
When we ordered a extendable dinning table and six chairs, we had to wait a couple of months, so I don't think it was in Australia. I could be wrong, time will tell.

Get ready for price hikes all round.

 

[Smurf1976]

Chinese Grand Prix postponed:

https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/51471569

The FIA, Formula 1's governing body, has accepted a request from Chinese organisers to postpone the Shanghai race, due to take place on 19 April.

Emphasis mine - point being that clearly a prompt resolution is not expected if they're cancelling an event that was scheduled to take place more than two months away.

 

[qldfrog]

Barcelona world telco conference cancelled:
https://www.lefigaro.fr/secteur/hig...ms-a-barcelone-est-finalement-annule-20200212
Effets can be unexpected

 

[qldfrog]

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-rapid-rebound-thesis-tested-103902810.html
Interesting to know which money is getting in and out of the market now.
Who are the suckers?

 

[Dona Ferentes]

...Who are the suckers?

It's not really suckers, the outcome is more nuanced than a binary set of options.

The risks have increased/ broadened, so it's best to position according to the new set of circumstances.

“I don’t think we can say that it is just a quarterly shock that then everything goes back to normal,” Alexandra Heath, head of economic analysis at the Reserve Bank of Australia, said on Wednesday.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

We got the Times


https://www-nytimes-com.cdn.ampproj...1/business/china-coronavirus-commodities.html