Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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qldfrog said:
Chinese buying them reimported from Brazil at 7$ a piece plus postage..a lot of money there
There is no availability, production is 20 millions a day as told there, not enough..and restricted to doctors and medics..but still mandatory to get outside in most of China
Expect shortage to extend outside China
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Foxconn (yes the one that makes the Apple iPhones) has switched some of its production lines to make masks for its own staff (and others) so that it can restart its electronics production lines without too much fear of its workers catching the coronavirus, what ingenuity
 
againsthegrain said:
climate change and unpredictable Aus govt make Australia a less stable country to go to
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I partially agree but Australia continues to defy all financial logic. American friends of mine just don't believe me when I tell them about house prices here, they say oh for that price it must be a mansion close to the city with 7+ bedrooms 5+ bathrooms on an acre of land, when I tell them, that's for a 3 bedroom 1 bathroom on 1/8 of an acre and more than 20 miles from the city, oh and needs renovation, they just tell me to get off the drugs and book into rehab. Property is one of our biggest wealth creators, I always think that one day it really has to crash (like by 60% or more) but it never does. I always look the fool when I keep saying its going to crash, meanwhile property prices double again.
 
Johny5 said:
I partially agree but Australia continues to defy all financial logic. American friends of mine just don't believe me when I tell them about house prices here, they say oh for that price it must be a mansion close to the city with 7+ bedrooms 5+ bathrooms on an acre of land, when I tell them, that's for a 3 bedroom 1 bathroom on 1/8 of an acre and more than 20 miles from the city, oh and needs renovation, they just tell me to get off the drugs and book into rehab. Property is one of our biggest wealth creators, I always think that one day it really has to crash (like by 60% or more) but it never does. I always look the fool when I keep saying its going to crash, meanwhile property prices double again.
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The problem is there is a growing population and most newcomers want to live in Sydney, Melbourne, so it just goes back to supply and demand.
When people stop buying prices will come down as happens everywhere, while people are prepared to pay the prices, they will just rise to what the market can bear.
 
My gut feeling about the economic implications of the coronavirus is, when it is finally under control, the urbanization of the Chinese population will take on a new impetus.
The Chinese Government wont want a repeat of this, or even worse, so i think major steps will be made to 'clean up' the issues.
This in turn will IMO will cause another acceleration in demand for raw materials.

With the Western World driving toward carbon neutral and China urbanizing, I think we may be on the cusp of another major boom in Australia. Time will tell.
Just my thoughts.
 
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sptrawler said:
The problem is there is a growing population and most newcomers want to live in Sydney, Melbourne, so it just goes back to supply and demand.
When people stop buying prices will come down as happens everywhere, while people are prepared to pay the prices, they will just rise to what the market can bear.
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I remember when Melbourne was a wasteland for property investment in the early 1980's.

It developed and boomed on wool and gold in the 19th century.

It will bust again, boom and bust is a natural cycle anywhere.

gg
 
noirua said:
Virus outbreak simply reinforces current trends
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Agreed - it fits with the trend away from globalism which has been emerging for quite a while now. This virus didn't start it, nor did Brexit or the "border adjustment" idea to enforce environmental or labour standards but they're all steps along the way. The whole free trade versus protectionism thing is after all just a cycle like many economic and political things are.

Meanwhile in the immediate term there's some drama emerging with minerals it seems: https://www.theage.com.au/business/...a-shipments-due-to-virus-20200209-p53z2w.html
 
This is going to hurt the education business model.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...l-ban-due-to-coronavirus-20200210-p53zd8.html
From the article:
Australia is set to extend its coronavirus travel ban in a move expected to hammer the education sector and block 100,000 international students from entering the country in time for the start of semester.
The extension of the travel ban, which is not expected to be formally announced until Saturday and could last another fortnight, will rattle the university sector as it prepares for lectures to begin without tens of thousands of students. Orientation Week at many universities is due to start on February 24.

Up to 56 per cent of the Chinese international student cohort at Australia's top universities remain overseas, including 65,000 from the Group of Eight, including Monash, the University of Sydney and the University of Melbourne.
 
Certainly hit the Unis but it will also impact accommodation, and retail outlets that won't see the spending power of so many people.

I would think that if these students represented even 5% of the spend in the CBD this loss would be serious

On top of that the collapse in Chinese tourism will add another blow to the economy. Honestly I think there will be serious unraveling in the next 1-2 months. Watch the next quarters GDP figures...

Bushfires and coronavirus twin disasters hit Australia's tourism sector
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...navirus-bushfires-hit-tourism-sector/11949922
 
basilio said:
Certainly hit the Unis but it will also impact accommodation, and retail outlets that won't see the spending power of so many people.

I would think that if these students represented even 5% of the spend in the CBD this loss would be serious

On top of that the collapse in Chinese tourism will add another blow to the economy. Honestly I think there will be serious unraveling in the next 1-2 months. Watch the next quarters GDP figures...

Bushfires and coronavirus twin disasters hit Australia's tourism sector
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...navirus-bushfires-hit-tourism-sector/11949922
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Surely there could be some remote access classrooms set up , or online video lectures could be done for a lot of courses I would think.
 
They can get that already from British Unis based in China
Still a money earner but not the same as students here
 
SirRumpole said:
Surely there could be some remote access classrooms set up , or online video lectures could be done for a lot of courses I would think.
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They could but the thing about education exports is that actual education is only part of what's really being sold.

If the student doesn't physically end up in Australia then to considerable extent the value of the transaction has been eroded. Online etc is thus really only a very short term interim sort of solution. :2twocents
 

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