Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[qldfrog]

For some figures as this is what this thread is for
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/tAwfmduGXGY3wcMrg0npEQ
This Chine article, from my translation, estimates the loss for the new year spring festival to 1.5 trillion yuans so around 500 billions USD. Numbers are always a trouble in chinese but 1.5 billion yuans would obviously be too small so must be the figure quoted.
The article highlights the pain on startups and SME

 

[sptrawler]

I think the people who were evacuated to Christmas Island, should thank their lucky stars, that they aren't on the Diamond Princess cruise ship?
Confined to cabin for two weeks , a lot of these people will be stuck in an inside cabin, which is no bigger than a large bedroom with no window.
Have a bit of a think about that OMG, worse than prison.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...se-ship-diamond-princess-australians/11936102

 

[qldfrog]

I think the people who were evacuated to Christmas Island, should thank their lucky stars, that they aren't on the Diamond Princess cruise ship?
Confined to cabin for two weeks , a lot of these people will be stuck in an inside cabin, which is no bigger than a large bedroom with no window.
Have a bit of a think about that OMG, worse than prison.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...se-ship-diamond-princess-australians/11936102

But we have to realise it is better than ICU for 2 weeks or the very limited space of a coffin for eternity..

 

[sptrawler]

But we have to realise it is better than ICU for 2 weeks or the very limited space of a coffin for eternity..

Absolutely, I was just highlighting the media making a big song and dance about Christmas Island, rather than putting a positive spin on the fact as a Country we are in a position where we can offer them reasonable quarantine provisions.

 

[macca]

Free evacuation flight, free food, free medical, free internet, free gym, private room for each family, grounds to walk around, totally disgusting so, so bad say the whingers but in fact the locals reckon it is better than their own conditions

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

https://www.smh.com.au/business/mar...lobal-economy-is-growing-20200206-p53y72.html

The Chinese Communist Party is actively minimising the numbers of nCoronavirus infections within it's borders, the ability of it's citizens to notify the outside world of the spread of the disease, and the effect on it's economy.

This is not going to end well.

I was extremely surprised to see the market rise today and took the opportunity to offload some stocks I purchased since the last time I went to cash last year.

When an epidemic which is basically due to overpopulation and poor food hygiene is dependent for it's control on some boffin finding a vaccine or a drug for a virus which can mutate, it is indeed "brave" to invest on such a hope.

We are "rooned".

gg

 

[Smurf1976]

This sounds rather bad:

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/05/business/shipping-coronavirus-impact/index.html

BIMCO members, which include 1,900 shipowners, operators, managers, brokers and agents, report limited or no demand from Chinese buyers of seaborne commodities, such as coal, crude oil and iron ore

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

It gets worse. From the Wall St. Journal. China, it appears, will be unable to implement the tariff agreement with the US.

Excuse the formatting.

China Set to Halve Its Tariffs On $75 Billion of U.S. Imports

BY LINGLING WEI
BEIJING—China said Thurs- day that it will slash tariffs on $75 billion of U.S. imports by half as part of an effort to im- plement the recently signed trade deal with Washington.
China’s Ministry of Finance said that starting Feb. 14, 10% tariffs on some U.S. goods would be cut to 5%, while other goods that have faced 5% levies will have those re- duced to 2.5%.
Those tariffs were imposed in September and December during a trade fight between the world’s two largest econo- mies.
The tariff reduction comes amid growth doubt over Bei- jing’s resolve and ability to carry out the phase-one agree- ment, in which China has
pledged to boost its purchases of American merchandise and services by $200 billion over two years.
A new viral outbreak that started in China in late Janu- ary and has spread to more than a dozen countries has caused a near-standstill in economic activity in the coun- try. Chinese authorities have put many parts of the country on lockdown to contain the outbreak.
Even before the outbreak, many economists and ana- lysts have cast doubt over Beijing’s ability to meet the purchasing targets, involving products including soybeans, poultry, oil and gas and man- ufactured goods.
Now, the weakening Chi- nese economy in the face of the virus could make it more
difficult for Beijing to carry out all the pledges.
But the tariff decision an- nounced by China Thursday indicates that the Chinese leadership remains intent on implementing the deal that has helped halt the nearly two-year trade war between the two nations.
“China hopes that both par- ties can abide by the agree- ment, strive to implement the relevant content of the agree- ment, strengthen market con- fidence, promote the develop- ment of bilateral economic and trade relations, and pro- mote world economic growth,” the statement issued by the Finance Ministry said.
The products covered by the tariff decision include auto parts, agricultural products, chemicals and crude oil.
The biggest section of the phase-one deal covers Chinese pledges to increase U.S. im- ports. Beijing agreed to buy an additional $200 billion in goods, with the deal calling for $77 billion in additional trade in 2020 and $123 billion in 2021.
Across the two years, the targets call for China to boost its purchasing above the levels seen in 2017 by about $78 bil- lion in manufacturing, $32 bil- lion in agriculture, $52 billion in energy and $38 billion of services. In 2017, the U.S. ex- ported $186 billion of goods and services. To fulfill the tar- gets in the deal, U.S. exports to China would need to climb to $263 billion in 2020 and $309 billion in 2021, an in- crease without precedent in the history of U.S. trade.

gg

 

[So_Cynical]

It's just not slowing down, should be plateauing soon if they really do have it under control.
~

 

[Smurf1976]

If gas isn't being used then that's a reasonable indication that factories are idle:

China's biggest buyer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) also rejected shipments, telling some suppliers that it would not accept delivery of cargoes because of constraints caused by the coronavirus.

https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/...stries-china-cuts-orders-200206055926135.html

 

[Dona Ferentes]

A view from Singapore

https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject...e-minister-on-diversifying-supply-chains.html

 

[qldfrog]

Free evacuation flight, free food, free medical, free internet, free gym, private room for each family, grounds to walk around, totally disgusting so, so bad say the whingers but in fact the locals reckon it is better than their own conditions

I believe it is just the globalists who can not admit the illegal immigrants were taken care of properly in Christmas Island.
so the place has to be evil..dirty hot cold whatever
In the same way any true refugee would be happy to be safe there with their family, most quarantined people there with a bit of intelligence must be very overjoyed to be alive and safe/safer

 

[qldfrog]

Factories are closed over most of China until at least Monday

If gas isn't being used then that's a reasonable indication that factories are idle:



https://www.aljazeera.com/ajimpact/...stries-china-cuts-orders-200206055926135.html

 

[Dona Ferentes]

I believe it is just the globalists who can not admit the illegal immigrants were taken care of properly in Christmas Island.
so the place has to be evil..dirty hot cold whatever
In the same way any true refugee would be happy to be safe there with their family, most quarantined people there with a bit of intelligence must be very overjoyed to be alive and safe/safer

yes but these spinners of falsehoods believe
a) in the tooth fairy
b) that its their entitlement to rule
c) the last election was stolen
d) and Kafka was a work of fiction

As long as e) doesn't come to pass, I'll just keep chuckling along and ignore them
e) being; off to the re-education camp for the recalcitrants

 

[Smurf1976]

Factories are closed over most of China until at least Monday

I should have added that I mean closed as in closed more than they were expected to be closed for Chinese New Year etc.

I understand that there's normally a slowdown at this time of year in China but to be literally turning away entire ship loads of commodities, especially ones with very broad application in their end use such as gas, suggests the slowdown is substantially greater than just normal New Year stuff etc.

It also has potentially major implications for Australia given that iron ore, coal and gas are our top commodity exports.

 

[qldfrog]

I should have added that I mean closed as in closed more than they were expected to be closed for Chinese New Year etc.

I understand that there's normally a slowdown at this time of year in China but to be literally turning away entire ship loads of commodities, especially ones with very broad application in their end use such as gas, suggests the slowdown is substantially greater than just normal New Year stuff etc.

It also has potentially major implications for Australia given that iron ore, coal and gas are our top commodity exports.

You are right:
everything should have restarted full speed this week, and that does not even consider areas in full lockdown.
if SZ(Shenzhen) is supposed to start back on monday, i wonder how if public transport is heavily shut down
I think Australia is often missing the size factor in China.
hard to even imagine until you go there
SZ is 12.5 millions in a modern city building most of your made in china electronic and software
11 metro lines transporting 6 millions people a day, to run this city and make your IBM ThinkPad or smartphone.if public transport is limited, so will be work activities.
I am repeating myself but even if a miracle cure is found next week and a vaccine at the end of the month(dreaming) the effects of what has already happened will be very hard on us especially.
Far far less on the US or Europe but having the ASX above 7100 today seems complete lunacy.
I am aware we should not spread panic as it can self generate ill effects, but being blindsided is not great either.
I recommend people make their own judgements and basically look at the weight of China in our economy then act to their best interest

 

[SirRumpole]

I should have added that I mean closed as in closed more than they were expected to be closed for Chinese New Year etc.

I understand that there's normally a slowdown at this time of year in China but to be literally turning away entire ship loads of commodities, especially ones with very broad application in their end use such as gas, suggests the slowdown is substantially greater than just normal New Year stuff etc.

It also has potentially major implications for Australia given that iron ore, coal and gas are our top commodity exports.

I suppose there will always be an initial shock followed by a settling down and management of the situation.

If the slowdown lasts for more than a couple of months then I think we are looking at a serious issue.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...pered-by-coronavirus-casino-shutdown/11942502



gg

 

[qldfrog]

Prophetic gg?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02...pered-by-coronavirus-casino-shutdown/11942502



gg

 

[againsthegrain]

@joeno You are so playing your own violin. Anyway, rants like that are numerous.all sides...
If you were a real supporter of Chinese people, not the CCP, you could have better issues to raise and real help to give
A quick ignore addition and the noice is gone.

whoaa the communist propaganda trumpet, people in Australia and the West are too intelligent to eat up this kind of bs, please leave it back in China and North Korea. I have no problem with Chinese coming here but don't bring the brainwashing with you