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Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

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jbocker said:
To add to my previous post I think the value of 'call centres' and the like has been given a much greater importance since COVID-19. Consumers are valuing the quality of the contact far more now having experienced the lack of physical presence.
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The other side to that is that a lot of the call centres are also closed due to covid !
 
SirRumpole said:
Telstra should follow suit.

I've had to call them a few times, and although the staff are helpful there was a lot of shoving around between one department and another with some of the calls getting lost in the process.

That's really a matter of procedure and training though, it could go just as bad in Australia.

It depends on the quality and knowledge of the staff and how keen they are to help. Although it sounds a bit biased to say it, maybe staff in Australia would be happier to help their "local" community rather than someone in another country.
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I swapped phone companies earlier this year largely triggered by the annoyance at quality of support. Which was a blessing as I went to a Aussie run provider (Moose Mobile) and saved about 40-50%(from memory) with better service. I am in the consideration of moving my ISP too and I think it will be Aussie Broadband (which also has totally Aussie support)
 
Another unintended consequence is rearing its head, fruit picking season is almost here and no backpackers=no fruit picked.
Farmers are starting to get nervous.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2...e-feared-due-to-coronavirus-controls/12504802
From the article:
Border closures shut out farm workers
State border closures have also impeded fruit pickers and shearers, with New South Wales refusing to permit seasonal workers entering that state from Victoria.

"There are lots of people in New South Wales that need jobs so I don't feel there is a labour shortage in NSW at all, if people want to come in and want to do that seasonal work, they've got to be subjected to that 14-day isolation period," Premier Gladys Berejiklian said last week.

Mr Littleproud said while he wanted to see unemployed Australians get back to work, short-term farm jobs are not always practical.

"I really do want to see Australians that are on unemployed benefits go and work — I just understand more than anyone, living in regional Queensland, that doesn't happen," Mr Littleproud said.

"Practically, people aren't going to travel."

What's Plan B?
It comes as the National Farmers Federation launched a campaign to help match farmers with workers.

"We're urging farmers to take the time to develop 'Plan B' for their farm's labour needs, based on an assumption that they will have limited to no access to a foreign workforce," NFF chief executive Tony Mahar said.

"We know the part time and seasonal nature of some farm work doesn't suit everyone.

"However. we urge jobseekers to keep an open mind about what's on offer."

Mr Mahar said in some cases, workers on farms could earn up to $1,000 per week.
 
sptrawler said:
Another unintended consequence is rearing its head, fruit picking season is almost here and no backpackers=no fruit picked.
Farmers are starting to get nervous.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2...e-feared-due-to-coronavirus-controls/12504802
From the article:
Border closures shut out farm workers
State border closures have also impeded fruit pickers and shearers, with New South Wales refusing to permit seasonal workers entering that state from Victoria.

"There are lots of people in New South Wales that need jobs so I don't feel there is a labour shortage in NSW at all, if people want to come in and want to do that seasonal work, they've got to be subjected to that 14-day isolation period," Premier Gladys Berejiklian said last week.

Mr Littleproud said while he wanted to see unemployed Australians get back to work, short-term farm jobs are not always practical.

"I really do want to see Australians that are on unemployed benefits go and work — I just understand more than anyone, living in regional Queensland, that doesn't happen," Mr Littleproud said.

"Practically, people aren't going to travel."

What's Plan B?
It comes as the National Farmers Federation launched a campaign to help match farmers with workers.

"We're urging farmers to take the time to develop 'Plan B' for their farm's labour needs, based on an assumption that they will have limited to no access to a foreign workforce," NFF chief executive Tony Mahar said.

"We know the part time and seasonal nature of some farm work doesn't suit everyone.

"However. we urge jobseekers to keep an open mind about what's on offer."

Mr Mahar said in some cases, workers on farms could earn up to $1,000 per week.
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The same issue will play out with the cropping season later in the year. Farmers often use either backpackers or experienced international farmhands.

The Grain Handlers themselves will also be affected but to a lesser degree as many of their harvest staff come from school leavers or Uni students. Should Covid really get loose then it will get very messy for the Grain Handlers.

Oh yeah & anyone who does not hold high level status with QANTAS would be able to tell stories of incredibly long waits on hold & poorly trained call centre staff if you eventually get through.
 
wabullfrog said:
The same issue will play out with the cropping season later in the year. Farmers often use either backpackers or experienced international farmhands.

The Grain Handlers themselves will also be affected but to a lesser degree as many of their harvest staff come from school leavers or Uni students. Should Covid really get loose then it will get very messy for the Grain Handlers.

Oh yeah & anyone who does not hold high level status with QANTAS would be able to tell stories of incredibly long waits on hold & poorly trained call centre staff if you eventually get through.
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The government may have to incorporate it in the job seeker, job keeper programe somehow, there is a lot of money being thrown around in the name of 'work' ATM.
 
sptrawler said:
The government may have to incorporate it in the job seeker, job keeper programe somehow, there is a lot of money being thrown around in the name of 'work' ATM.
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With Jobseeker I guess there are relocation, no worse off & other clauses within the legislation that may apply.
 
wabullfrog said:
Should Covid really get loose then it will get very messy for the Grain Handlers.
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Economically, the covid has hardly any direct effect on fruitpickers etc,they are nor sick nor unable to work:
the misguided directives and isolation measures have that direct effect, may we all hope that will bring a bit of neurones back into our politicians.qld excepted as obviously too far gone
 
The conflict between health and economics during Covid-19 is not a dichotomy.

As recent events in Queensland with alleged criminal behaviour being implicated in introducing Coronavirus again to Queensland, commerce both licit and illicit will continue during these times.

All governments of whatever political stripe continue as best they can with Health authorities to implement measures both to contain the virus and facilitate mining, industry and commerce.

It is an extremely difficult if not existential time for small business.

Crime such as drug running, theft, violence and hard and soft-collar malpractice will continue.

To mitigate the economic downside it is important we all harden up and DO WHAT YOU ARE TOLD by health authorities.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
The conflict between health and economics during Covid-19 is not a dichotomy.

As recent events in Queensland with alleged criminal behaviour being implicated in introducing Coronavirus again to Queensland, commerce both licit and illicit will continue during these times.

All governments of whatever political stripe continue as best they can with Health authorities to implement measures both to contain the virus and facilitate mining, industry and commerce.

It is an extremely difficult if not existential time for small business.

Crime such as drug running, theft, violence and hard and soft-collar malpractice will continue.

To mitigate the economic downside it is important we all harden up and DO WHAT YOU ARE TOLD by health authorities.

gg
Click to expand...

Like you say, licit and illicit activity will continue. This is inevitable. A lot of people are trying to bring about the impossible, or acting as though the impossible is possible and people will all follow all the rules. The rules are set out under the assumption that all people will follow them, but clearly this is flawed thinking.

The reality is that we will see people breaking rules and at some stage the system will wake up and deal with it, but I'm not sure how soon that will happen.

Doing what is told by the authorities is the exact thing causing the economic downside. If the whole world took no serious measures to control the virus, it wouldn't have caused significant economic issues and it would now almost be over. Sweden being the case in point. Sweden's death rate is now negligible, and the only reason it has any economic issues is that the rest of the world has gone crazy and no country's economy is an island, and many are scared of Sweden, but I expect we'll see this change over the next few months as they see Sweden having better figures than other countries, which at some stage will have to do something similar.

Looking at Australia, we are seeing the numbers exceed the initial wave. When the virus first arrived and caught the country off guard with people not being prepared, it obviously started to spread. Then after being mostly (but importantly, not entirely) eliminated, and sitting quiet for a few months, it is now spreading faster than it did when it caught us off guard, even with all the public 'education', awareness, measures, shutting down all those businesses, having people work from home, etc. It's now weeks since people in Melbourne were allowed to even visit a friend or relative at all, and right now we have the virus escalating faster than ever before. This is the actual reality, which the system hasn't accepted as reality yet.

We need to accept that humans are human and will do what humans do. The virus will spread in places like Melbourne and Sydney and won't go away until a Sweden model is used. There will be outbreaks in other areas. Importantly, this is mostly going to affect people such as 90 year olds in nursing homes. This has various social implications etc, but since we're keeping this on topic and only looking at economics, knocking out a small number of elderly people in nursing homes has a trivial effect on the economy.
 
Sdajii said:
Like you say, licit and illicit activity will continue. This is inevitable. A lot of people are trying to bring about the impossible, or acting as though the impossible is possible and people will all follow all the rules. The rules are set out under the assumption that all people will follow them, but clearly this is flawed thinking.

The reality is that we will see people breaking rules and at some stage the system will wake up and deal with it, but I'm not sure how soon that will happen.

Doing what is told by the authorities is the exact thing causing the economic downside. If the whole world took no serious measures to control the virus, it wouldn't have caused significant economic issues and it would now almost be over. Sweden being the case in point. Sweden's death rate is now negligible, and the only reason it has any economic issues is that the rest of the world has gone crazy and no country's economy is an island, and many are scared of Sweden, but I expect we'll see this change over the next few months as they see Sweden having better figures than other countries, which at some stage will have to do something similar.

Looking at Australia, we are seeing the numbers exceed the initial wave. When the virus first arrived and caught the country off guard with people not being prepared, it obviously started to spread. Then after being mostly (but importantly, not entirely) eliminated, and sitting quiet for a few months, it is now spreading faster than it did when it caught us off guard, even with all the public 'education', awareness, measures, shutting down all those businesses, having people work from home, etc. It's now weeks since people in Melbourne were allowed to even visit a friend or relative at all, and right now we have the virus escalating faster than ever before. This is the actual reality, which the system hasn't accepted as reality yet.

We need to accept that humans are human and will do what humans do. The virus will spread in places like Melbourne and Sydney and won't go away until a Sweden model is used. There will be outbreaks in other areas. Importantly, this is mostly going to affect people such as 90 year olds in nursing homes. This has various social implications etc, but since we're keeping this on topic and only looking at economics, knocking out a small number of elderly people in nursing homes has a trivial effect on the economy.
Click to expand...
Thanks @Sdajii

I prefer to look forward rather than back. We are now in the operational phase of health and economic control during Covid, so mate, JUST DO WHAT YOU ARE TOLD and encourage others to do the same.

I have my own ideas on Sweden but it is pointless discussing it. It's a bit like some poor bastard in a trench in Flanders in 1917 whose leg has just been blown off, saying, I don't think the Kaiser should have started the war.

We need to unite behind our present leaders in Australia, ( let's not discuss the Orange Fool in the White House ) , change course as necessary under our medical and economic advisers, and choose our leaders in a democratic manner. Support of the vulnerable and a just social system with adequate penalties for wrongdoers rich or poor will get the economy back on track.

gg
 
Sdajii said:
Like you say, licit and illicit activity will continue. This is inevitable. A lot of people are trying to bring about the impossible, or acting as though the impossible is possible and people will all follow all the rules. The rules are set out under the assumption that all people will follow them, but clearly this is flawed thinking.

The reality is that we will see people breaking rules and at some stage the system will wake up and deal with it, but I'm not sure how soon that will happen.

Doing what is told by the authorities is the exact thing causing the economic downside. If the whole world took no serious measures to control the virus, it wouldn't have caused significant economic issues and it would now almost be over. Sweden being the case in point. Sweden's death rate is now negligible, and the only reason it has any economic issues is that the rest of the world has gone crazy and no country's economy is an island, and many are scared of Sweden, but I expect we'll see this change over the next few months as they see Sweden having better figures than other countries, which at some stage will have to do something similar.

Looking at Australia, we are seeing the numbers exceed the initial wave. When the virus first arrived and caught the country off guard with people not being prepared, it obviously started to spread. Then after being mostly (but importantly, not entirely) eliminated, and sitting quiet for a few months, it is now spreading faster than it did when it caught us off guard, even with all the public 'education', awareness, measures, shutting down all those businesses, having people work from home, etc. It's now weeks since people in Melbourne were allowed to even visit a friend or relative at all, and right now we have the virus escalating faster than ever before. This is the actual reality, which the system hasn't accepted as reality yet.

We need to accept that humans are human and will do what humans do. The virus will spread in places like Melbourne and Sydney and won't go away until a Sweden model is used. There will be outbreaks in other areas. Importantly, this is mostly going to affect people such as 90 year olds in nursing homes. This has various social implications etc, but since we're keeping this on topic and only looking at economics, knocking out a small number of elderly people in nursing homes has a trivial effect on the economy.
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Potentially reinjecting money in the economy away from economically negative aged care artificial life extension.
Different debate but related in a way with euthanasia, right to die decently etc as discussed on other thread.
Our village is booming as never, a short drive from the city, masses are going for a drive, sipping coffees and walking around
Absolutely amazing..far away from the WFH so either a new perspective on life for many or just milking the system
I drove then took the train at what used to be peak time to the cbd on monday
Less than a person per carriage
People who have to work in the cbd are driving there.
Think societal cost, not mentioning co2 for the believers.
I bet you many are thinking: why did i bother doing the 8 to 5 race before, no one cares, makes no difference
I work less, pay less taxes, drive comfortably to the city, not pushed around...
That is not going away
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
Thanks @Sdajii

I prefer to look forward rather than back. We are now in the operational phase of health and economic control during Covid, so mate, JUST DO WHAT YOU ARE TOLD and encourage others to do the same.
Click to expand...

I see your frustration spilling over here. Shouting at me, as though it is somehow relevant. The reality is that your words are meaningless. I'm looking forward, I'm saying that reality is what it is and will be what it will be. Even if your shouting at me actually made me change (which it won't, and I haven't been doing anything risky anyway, which you seem confused about), there are tens of millions of people in this country and they are not going to listen to your shouting. Every time we see a story on the news about someone visiting a family member or going to work or sneaking across the border, we have people getting angry about it, and acting like it is somehow surprising, and demanding that it never happen again, with a mindset of 'if everyone stays at home and doesn't go out, we'll be okay'. The reality is that it won't happen like that, looking forward, there will be people who break the rules. I'm not talking about what I want to happen or what I'll personally do, I'm talking about what definitely will happen in the future, which is in conflict with what you're shouting about, which is why you're frustrated.

I have my own ideas on Sweden but it is pointless discussing it. It's a bit like some poor bastard in a trench in Flanders in 1917 whose leg has just been blown off, saying, I don't think the Kaiser should have started the war.
Click to expand...

The relevance is that it's a proven model and we can adopt is now, which in a few months would bring an end to the issue. I don't think that's going to happen now or particularly soon, but at some stage we inevitably have to do something like it. I expect that an ineffective vaccine will be used as an excuse to allow a Sweden model to be used, while we are told to pretend it's something else.

We need to unite behind our present leaders in Australia, ( let's not discuss the Orange Fool in the White House ) , change course as necessary under our medical and economic advisers, and choose our leaders in a democratic manner. Support of the vulnerable and a just social system with adequate penalties for wrongdoers rich or poor will get the economy back on track.
Click to expand...

It's peculiar that you demand people unite behind the leaders you like and denounce the once you don't (despite having been democratically elected!) and also say that we follow future democratically elected leaders (but not currently democratically elected leaders if you don't like them), as though this might actually happen. How do you reconcile telling people to faithfully follow democratically elected leaders while simultaneously telling them not to? Obviously this is not a logical attitude.
 
Sdajii said:
If the whole world took no serious measures to control the virus, it wouldn't have caused significant economic issues and it would now almost be over.
Click to expand...
That's not even a guess: It is wholly contradicted by real world evidence of spread, including what is abundantly clear in the USA which has been trying to mitigate spread.
Sdajii said:
Sweden being the case in point. Sweden's death rate is now negligible, and the only reason it has any economic issues is that the rest of the world has gone crazy and no country's economy is an island, and many are scared of Sweden, but I expect we'll see this change over the next few months as they see Sweden having better figures than other countries, which at some stage will have to do something similar.
Click to expand...
Sweden has got measures in place, and I believe continues to have them in place, to mitigate spread. Borders to Sweden were closed by other countries, so it had also been effectively like how we are presently treating Victoria.
Sweden's social structure and sense of social responsibility is nothing like Australia's, so suggesting we can just do what they do would never work. Our cultural similarities to the USA and UK suggest we would fail massively.
I will later post some Queensland data and show how well our strategy of containment has worked vis a vis Sweden.
 
Sdajii said:
I see your frustration spilling over here. Shouting at me, as though it is somehow relevant. The reality is that your words are meaningless. I'm looking forward, I'm saying that reality is what it is and will be what it will be. Even if your shouting at me actually made me change (which it won't, and I haven't been doing anything risky anyway, which you seem confused about), there are tens of millions of people in this country and they are not going to listen to your shouting. Every time we see a story on the news about someone visiting a family member or going to work or sneaking across the border, we have people getting angry about it, and acting like it is somehow surprising, and demanding that it never happen again, with a mindset of 'if everyone stays at home and doesn't go out, we'll be okay'. The reality is that it won't happen like that, looking forward, there will be people who break the rules. I'm not talking about what I want to happen or what I'll personally do, I'm talking about what definitely will happen in the future, which is in conflict with what you're shouting about, which is why you're frustrated.



The relevance is that it's a proven model and we can adopt is now, which in a few months would bring an end to the issue. I don't think that's going to happen now or particularly soon, but at some stage we inevitably have to do something like it. I expect that an ineffective vaccine will be used as an excuse to allow a Sweden model to be used, while we are told to pretend it's something else.



It's peculiar that you demand people unite behind the leaders you like and denounce the once you don't (despite having been democratically elected!) and also say that we follow future democratically elected leaders (but not currently democratically elected leaders if you don't like them), as though this might actually happen. How do you reconcile telling people to faithfully follow democratically elected leaders while simultaneously telling them not to? Obviously this is not a logical attitude.
Click to expand...

Listen @Sdajii . ( whispers sooto voce )

Read it again. You poor deluded bastard.

gg
 
Dona Ferentes said:
economic implications thread, chasps !!

*Edit
Click to expand...
Hope springs eternal that the "chasps" will toe the line.

My expectation is that economically we will recover and move on. Many opportunities will arise once the volatility of the present unstable situation settles for all.

@Joe Blow should have an angry boys and girls thread wherein off-topic kerfuffles can carry on out of the hearing of nanny whip, even for good boys and girls who occasionally show frustration with muppets.

gg
 
It isn't all bad news, first time we have had negative cpi in a long time.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/australias-inflation-turns-negative-2020-07-28
From the article:
SYDNEY--Australia's annual inflation turned negative for the first time in 22 years in the pandemic-hit second quarter as government childcare subsidies and lower oil prices fueled the biggest quarterly fall on record.

The country's consumer price index fell by 1.9% over the three months to June 30, according to the official Australian Bureau of Statistics. Annual inflation fell to minus 0.3% from 2.2% three months earlier.

The ABS said the government's move to make childcare free from April 6 as part of its response to the economic hit from the coronavirus was the biggest driver of Australia's first annual deflationary print since March 1998.
The largest sector drag on prices came from an 11% fall in household contents and services, which included a 95% drop in childcare costs due to the subsidies.
Fuel prices declined 19% in the quarter, while falling education costs also weighed.
ABS chief economist Bruce Hockman said the overall CPI would have risen 0.1% in the quarter without those three factors.
 

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