Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[moXJO]

On a completely related note, anyone else just absolutely seething about/generally with the whole situation at the moment?

I mean the victorian outbreak was bad enough, but the fact that it's been allowed to spread is just unforgivable.

This year has been a write off to most people.

 

[Sdajii]

Exactly. Half the population too sick to work does not an economy make. The combined man-hours lost due to lockdowns is waaay lower than whatever it would be if we just let the virus run rampant.

We literally couldn't make half the population sick if we tried. Literally most people don't even have symptoms. If we literally give everyone in the world a dose of the virus, literally simultaneously, we still wouldn't have half the population sick. In the real world we would have a slighty struggle to have a particularly large percentage of the population out of action at any given time if we literally put in a reasonable effort to make it happen, and in the realistic scenario of the real world, we have a real life experiment (Sweden) doing as little as any country could reasonably be expected to do, in a cold climate, and we can see what's actually happening, and it's not what you're fearmongering about.

 

[Sdajii]

I can see that there are some who have some 'acceptance' to let some elders and the susceptible die in order to save some younger from suicide (due to lockdown and/or financial hardship). But I am not convinced that letting the virus rip does in itself prevents suicide nor prevents financial hardship for many. Having a virus loaded work environment causes stress for those who chronically fear its affect. After all it also a state of mind which can also lead to suicide.
I hear your argument and it certainly needs focus to prevention as much we do with the virus.

If you want to specifically look at the suicide issue (which is by absolutely positively no means the whole problem of the restrictions, it's not even anywhere near the majority of the harm caused, just one of many many facets), there's a huge difference between people facing a problem together, and people being forced to actively avoid seeking the comfort and assistance of friends and family, under the enforcement of humans with authority over them. People working together in a difficult situation causes people to be stimulated and form camaraderie, which is a good way to prevent depression. Being isolated and forced not to take action is an extreme way to induce depression. Depression is almost essential for causing suicidal ideation in most cases.

 

[over9k]

We literally couldn't make half the population sick if we tried.

I literally wasn't being literal. You appear to be a literal raving loon.

Saying XYZ should or shouldn't happen is irrelevant. What we all think changes precisely nothing. You need to end your crusade.

 

[Sdajii]

Saying XYZ should or shouldn't happen is irrelevant. What we all think changes precisely nothing.

What's it like to believe that individuals discussing things has no affect on anyone else, or alternatively, what's it like to believe that public opinion means nothing and has no impact on anything? What's it like to believe that individuals discussing topics as groups and exploring ideas has no value?

You need to end your crusade.

Funny how some people are arrogant enough to make statements like this to people they disagree with rather than discussing the topic in a meaningful way.

By all means respond to what I say with relevant points and arguments etc, but a post like this is stupid and leaves no potential for further meaningful discussion.

 

[over9k]

It's not supposed to leave potential for discussion. Its entire purpose is precisely to do the complete opposite and STOP this "discussion". How are you still not getting that?

This is not a thread for discussing our personal opinions reference what the government's coronavirus policies should be, it's a thread for discussing what the economic impacts of said virus pandemic have been/are and as an extension of that, how to profit (or at least protect our wealth) from them.

Person A reckons X should be done, person B reckons Y should be done, person C reckons Z should be done, blah blah blah, guess what? This thread isn't about what we reckon should be done, only what the effects of the pandemic and what either is or isn't being done in response to it actually are.

Just shut up already.

All of you.

 

[qldfrog]

If you want to specifically look at the suicide issue (which is by absolutely positively no means the whole problem of the restrictions, it's not even anywhere near the majority of the harm caused, just one of many many facets), there's a huge difference between people facing a problem together, and people being forced to actively avoid seeking the comfort and assistance of friends and family, under the enforcement of humans with authority over them. People working together in a difficult situation causes people to be stimulated and form camaraderie, which is a good way to prevent depression. Being isolated and forced not to take action is an extreme way to induce depression. Depression is almost essential for causing suicidal ideation in most cases.

@jbocker playing on the emotional cord for the elderly:
my sister in law works in an assisted living in France, the elderlies were literally letting themselves die as they had absolutely nothing to live for during the lockdown there, they could not wait for it to end to be able to break the forced isolation not only from their family, but also social activities, visit etc
I would bet anything you can find as many proof as you want that what I write here is true

So what you really mean is that we can let very old people die, who cares they are nearly over, young people die and pay for years for that extended lockdown mistakes but not your age range because there is some actually well known statistical risk not big, but not zero that you might be a victim
Let you judge the ethics there

The only certain fact is that whatever lockdowns are mandated etc , cry and fight as much as we want, the virus will do its job, which is to replicate and contaminate now or later.
We can dream of vaccine if it helps people , but there will be none effective in the coming couple of years and it will take a while for that basic truth to sink in both people and leaders mind
So, back to investment:
the fake vaccine-> CSL,
invest in treatments
and the fact that sooner or later we will have to reopen:
buy selective undervalued physical players, be it shop or even attraction parks etc.
While you can by electronic on line, ladies will still like shopping for extra little black dress etc
even better maybe we could actually bet against the AUD, by deferring the inevitable, we maintain an artificially high currency prone to a relatively fast collapse.
To debate...

 

[wayneL]

It's not supposed to leave potential for discussion. Its entire purpose is precisely to do the complete opposite and STOP this "discussion". How are you still not getting that?

This is not a thread for discussing our personal opinions reference what the government's coronavirus policies should be, it's a thread for discussing what the economic impacts of said virus pandemic have been/are and as an extension of that, how to profit (or at least protect our wealth) from them.

Person A reckons X should be done, person B reckons Y should be done, person C reckons Z should be done, blah blah blah, guess what? This thread isn't about what we reckon should be done, only what the effects of the pandemic and what either is or isn't being done in response to it actually are.

Just shut up already.

All of you.

Okay well let me encapsulate and wind up this thread with a succintcity(sic).

We're all ****ed!

 

[over9k]

Okay well let me encapsulate and wind up this thread with a succintcity(sic).

We're all ****ed!

The next two weeks will be crucial. If this whack-a-mole approach doesn't work, I tend to agree with you - we'll be back to full on lockdown again. There's no way they're going to just let us go the way of the USA after all the lockdowns we've already been through. Not a chance.

 

[wayneL]

The next two weeks will be crucial. If this whack-a-mole approach doesn't work, I tend to agree with you - we'll be back to full on lockdown again. There's no way they're going to just let us go the way of the USA after all the lockdowns we've already been through. Not a chance.

I am filling out my immigration papers for Sweden as we speak.

Whoda thunk it, Sweden, the last bastion of liberty?

 

[Sdajii]

The next two weeks will be crucial. If this whack-a-mole approach doesn't work, I tend to agree with you - we'll be back to full on lockdown again. There's no way they're going to just let us go the way of the USA after all the lockdowns we've already been through. Not a chance.

We can not remain in lockdown forever.

The inevitable is still inevitable, even if you delay it.

 

[satanoperca]

You need to end your crusade.

You might wish to look in a mirror occasionally.
Sdajii offers a contextual point of opinion that should be consider, like everyone elses

The next two weeks will be crucial. If this whack-a-mole approach doesn't work, I tend to agree with you - we'll be back to full on lockdown again. There's no way they're going to just let us go the way of the USA after all the lockdowns we've already been through. Not a chance.

There is no way people will confirm if we continue to go into lockdown, human behaviour dictates this, not science or ideologies or opinions or thoughts. We are just animals in the end.

As for "Not a Chance". Definition of insanity is?

 

[SirRumpole]

We can not remain in lockdown forever.

The inevitable is still inevitable, even if you delay it.

The whole country is not being locked down now, if you don't include the international boarders and even those are open for returning travellers.

Hotspots are being locked down, but the people of Qld, SA, WA and most of NSW can slowly get back to normal. So that's now the strategy detect and isolate where outbreaks occur, relax restrictions where there are no outbreaks.

Seems sensible to me.

 

[satanoperca]

The whole country is not being locked down now, if you don't include the international boarders and even those are open for returning travellers.

Hotspots are being locked down, but the people of Qld, SA, WA and most of NSW can slowly get back to normal. So that's now the strategy detect and isolate where outbreaks occur, relax restrictions where there are no outbreaks.

Seems sensible to me.

Really, Sydney will be in lock down by the end of the week.

I'm in Melbourne, social distancing seems like a fairy tale.

Everyone needs to remember for this strategy to work, 99.5% of the population needs to comply, well this will never happen, if it was even slightly feasible, then why do we have police and goals, if everyone complied with the letter of the law.

PS. The whole thing is being driven by fear and greed. As a society we do not discuss one of 2 things that is inevitable for all living creatures, life and death. We use death to scare, just look how religion has controlled the sphere of fear of 1000's of years, be good and comply to heaven or if not, go to hell.

If more in society accepted death, discussed it, acknowledged it, we would be in a better place.

 

[rederob]

I've derailed this thread far too many times. Will respond later on in the appropriate thread if that's OK.

You keep referencing the Swedish model because they have not gone as far as other European nations in terms of affecting their economy.
Sweden has not come close to herd immunity which is estimated to require over 6 million of their population to be affected, compared to the paltry 75k to date. In other words, no less than another 85 similar waves would need to sweep through Sweden for their magical immunity to kick in.
The thing we should be looking at more closely, however, are the industries which are most impacted by COV19.
Across the globe travel, tourism and hospitality have suffered most. In Sweden tourism contributes less than 3% to GDP, while in France it is nearer 10% and Italy 13%.
It is important to use reliable equivalences if you are going to propose one country has done better because "x," as it is likely to be more complicated than that.
I am on the record as liking a lot of what Sweden has done. However, they are seen as more socially responsible than most nations and, as a result, less likely to indulge in the individual stupidities that cause the virus to prosper.

 

[Sdajii]

The whole country is not being locked down now, if you don't include the international boarders and even those are open for returning travellers.

Hotspots are being locked down, but the people of Qld, SA, WA and most of NSW can slowly get back to normal. So that's now the strategy detect and isolate where outbreaks occur, relax restrictions where there are no outbreaks.

Seems sensible to me.

And can anyone tell me what will happen if things go back to normal?

If not, let me tell you: The inevitable will happen.

Do you expect or propose an indefinite state of locking people down whenever there is an outbreak?

I'm in Melbourne, I have been for four and a half months, since just right before the first lockdowns. The first time we were locked down the streets were empty, I was walking around in the middle of the street, there were no cars, it was surreal. This time I'm not sure if there has been a reduction in traffic or the traffic is normal and I'm just imagining it, but it's close enough to normal that I don't know. The first time at the supermarket everyone looked terrified, bewildered, panicked. This time they're just going shopping, they either look like it's a normal day, or they look fed up, bored, etc. (and if they're fed up and bored they're obviously not keen to play by the rules, and at best they're doing it grudgingly and half-heartedly, and clearly their diligence will only decline).

You can not maintain a state of emergency unless you have actual problems. People just aren't going to take it seriously. My friends interstate tell me everyone is just going about their days like nothing is different.

People aren't going to take this seriously indefinitely. Sure, a few will. A vocal minority will chirp about it online, but months ago many of us were talking about the inevitability of emergency fatigue, and now in Melbourne we're clearly seeing it. Most people just don't care, they're sick of being locked up. This isn't totalitarian China, people in a free country are going to want to act like it's a free country. I'm literally legally banned from visiting a friend. It would literally be illegal for me to go inside my neighbour's home for a cup of coffee, or to sit in a park and chat with a friend. That is not an ongoingly stable situation in Australia. A significant proportion of the population will ignore the law and that proportion will increase each time they are subjected to it.

The reality is that this disease really isn't that bad, which means people can't be kept scared by it. This isn't the plague where people are horribly sick and dying all around. The hyped up media isn't matching the reality and people can tell. Old people, cancer patients, etc, they've always died, it usually doesn't scare people. Heck, even legitimate dangers like smoking, drinking, etc don't scare everyone. In a situation which relies on everyone doing the right thing, in a free country, it's just not going to work, and neither should it in this case.

 

[Sdajii]

You keep referencing the Swedish model because they have not gone as far as other European nations in terms of affecting their economy.
Sweden has not come close to herd immunity which is estimated to require over 6 million of their population to be affected, compared to the paltry 75k to date. In other words, no less than another 85 similar waves would need to sweep through Sweden for their magical immunity to kick in.

So, to summarise what you're saying: Even when no effort is made to contain the virus, only a paltry little number of people are affected.

You're literally saying the virus isn't spreading fast enough, in a scenario of no restrictions.

...and this is your argument for locking everyone down!

 

[macca]

I am filling out my immigration papers for Sweden as we speak.

Whoda thunk it, Sweden, the last bastion of liberty?

A few countries in Asia new exactly what to do, did it promptly and have never shut down either.

They have had plenty of experience with bugs from China over the years, we should have copied them from day one

 

[wayneL]

A few countries in Asia new exactly what to do, did it promptly and have never shut down either.

They have had plenty of experience with bugs from China over the years, we should have copied them from day one

Yeah but, Sweden has other attractions

 

[qldfrog]

Yeah but, Sweden has other attractions

long blond hair on long legs instead of long black hair on short legs...matter of taste ;-)
it will be hard to visit either unless you are not Australian?. Australian have to stay behind our new walls..we are learning daily from Mr Xi

Now where are the economics there?