Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

Sdajii said:

So, to summarise what you're saying: Even when no effort is made to contain the virus, only a paltry little number of people are affected.

You're literally saying the virus isn't spreading fast enough, in a scenario of no restrictions.

...and this is your argument for locking everyone down!

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No.
Please learn what the Swedes actually did, and what they continue to do.
And try not to invent arguments which do not exist.

rederob said:

No.
Please learn what the Swedes actually did, and what they continue to do.
And try not to invent arguments which do not exist.

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Okay, so they're doing an appropriate amount to control it? What is it?

We were meant to be in Sweden now - visiting good friends in Stockholm aged in their 70s, as are we.
There's no need to repeat the current Nordic stats here other than to say that Sweden, with roughly twice the population of its neighbours, has a hugely greater death rate per capita. Yes, they have tried to keep their economy viable - but are struggling with multiple issues [including economic] and, unless it has changed very recently the Swedes are not allowed to travel to Denmark, Norway and Finland. Relationships have been damaged and that has other consequences.
There's no perfect answer... including Sweden's. Safer here than there at this time.

Western Sydney might have to go into lockdown and isolate from the rest of the city.

I'll simply observe that this debate, and by that I mean in the overall context not specifically on ASF, has the same problem as other contentious issues such as (among others) energy.

If you are not personally an expert or at least having direct access to data and the knowledge required to properly interpret it, then getting to the truth is extremely difficult.

These debates all have the same basic problem that the majority of comment in the media etc is at least somewhat tainted by politics. Not generally by outright lies but more by omission.

Getting proper, factual information on these sorts of subjects, information that's free of political bias, is not at all easy. It's hard enough if you know what you're looking for, virtually impossible for the layperson.

I think that goes a long way to explaining why these sorts of subjects become problematic on this forum and elsewhere. Discussion is based upon "beliefs" rather than factual information and even if someone really does know the facts and is telling the full story, it's hard for others to ascertain that this is indeed the case given the volume of biased "information" around. Someone could easily dismiss the truth as a lie whilst believing a lie to be the truth.

COVID-19 has turned in to a Left Vs Right political divide in much the same way as other subjects. I use energy as an example, since it's something I've been involved with for an extended period long before the subject held any mainstream interest, but it's the same with rather a lot of things it seems. Most of what's said isn't wrong, just guilty of omitting some of the important points which don't suit one side or the other.

If the facts were understood and beyond doubt, if we didn't have that political bias in it distorting the picture, then and only then could sensible informed decisions be made.

Should I support a lockdown? Should I support the "let it rip" approach? Something else? Without having proper factually correct information, and being confident that this information is indeed correct and contains no errors or omissions, it's impossible to know.

End result = these subjects end up as political battlegrounds based on ideology. It happens on this forum, it happens in mainstream society, it happens in politics.

Smurf1976 said:

I'll simply observe that this debate, and by that I mean in the overall context not specifically on ASF, has the same problem as other contentious issues such as (among others) energy.

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You never observe, you hijack and dictate.

Smurf1976 said:

These debates all have the same basic problem that the majority of comment in the media etc is at least somewhat tainted by politics. Not generally by outright lies but more by omission.

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Hmm, well I can see your point , to a point.

It seems to me that the public political stance, from the politicians themselves that is has been fairly bipartisan, ie they all get access to the medical advice and should reach the same conclusions on how to react to outbreaks. But even so, yes there are political incursions. Like the "Right" want the economy opened up and income supplements to discontinue, while the Left want an extension of welfare payments and more restrictions.

You can certainly see the political divide on this forum too. Those that keep banging on about individual rights and sod everyone else wouldn't be voting Labor I wouldn't think but opinions are also determined by personal circumstances. Those that are young and fit may think that the situation is all a hoax to extend political control over the populace, while those in vulnerable groups think restrictions are a good thing because it protects them. Vested interests are pretty powerful.

The first political test will come in the Qld election. I reckon Ana will get a boost by her efforts at keeping Qld relatively virus free, and the Opposition will be hoping for an outbreak just before polling day.

I thought this thread was for the topic of economic implications, not politics.

Chronos-Plutus said:

I thought this thread was for the topic of economic implications, not politics.

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Politics determines economics in a lot of ways. As I said, if the Right get their way the economy will be open for business again, if the Left prevail it will be closed for longer. That's the way democracy works.

SirRumpole said:

Politics determines economics in a lot of ways. As I said, if the Right get their way the economy will be open for business again, if the Left prevail it will be closed for longer. That's the way democracy works.

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Well Sir Rumple; I have deliberately ignored many threads on ASF because the discussions haven't been fruitful when politics have been involved.

Discussing the economic implications of government policy and direction, or possible government policy and direction, is different to advocation of political ideology.

Chronos-Plutus said:

Well Sir Rumple; I have deliberately ignored many threads on ASF because the discussions haven't been fruitful when politics have been involved.

Discussing the economic implications of government policy and direction, or possible government policy and direction, is different to advocation of political ideology.

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Well, people have to come to a conclusion as to what political policy achieves the best result so that sometimes means agreeing or disagreeing with political policy.

Of course, it depends on who the "best result" benefits the most. The individual voter, businesses, the country at large etc. We all have to make our own minds up about that.

If you want to argue that as this is a stock market forum we should only focus on the benefits to business then I would say that is a false direction as business is only one part of the equation.

SirRumpole said:

Well, people have to come to a conclusion as to what political policy achieves the best result so that sometimes means agreeing or disagreeing with political policy.

Of course, it depends on who the "best result" benefits the most. The individual voter, businesses, the country at large etc. We all have to make our own minds up about that.

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Well that is democracy, people will vote for what is best for them. This thread isn't for political philosophy and science, so I won't go reciting Plato for you.

Chronos-Plutus said:

so I won't go reciting Plato for you.

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Thanks.

Politics and policy at the same etymology, therefore if we are discussing economic policy, it is inseparable from political policy... so long as we stick to the economics other than going down the identity politics rabbit hole, hey.

All of these things are rather a matter of opinion and all policies, economic and political,have winners and losers, always. In fact every great economic theory has as its core, some sort of political philosophy.

I can see all of this resulting in western economies heading down the MMT avenue, essentially an economic theory but also rooted in political philosophy, the implications of such which can only be discussed on a political level... Winners and losers again, and I'm talking just about among we plebeians. Winners and losers exist at every level, even the political and societal *elite*.

When there is a monetary reset,and you can bet your life that that will happen (just look at the history of monetary systems in the last 150 years to see ample evidence of the frequency of this happening), it is a certainty that there will be some overarching political agenda to match.

It is utterly foolish to ignore this.

Sdajii said:

Okay, so they're doing an appropriate amount to control it? What is it?

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That information is freely available.

wayneL said:

Politics and policy at the same etymology, therefore if we are discussing economic policy, it is inseparable from political policy... so long as we stick to the economics other than going down the identity politics rabbit hole, hey.

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COV19 has caused many governments to rapidly enact economic remedies on the back foot.
The "surplus" promised year after year by our self proclaimed "better economic manager" of a federal government will instead be the biggest debt burden ever levied on our country.
If we are looking at "politics" from the sense of economic leadership, then the free market West has not come out overly well.
We could do a basic comparison of Sweden to Cuba - similar populations - and see that Cuba fared the health issues of COV19 far better, while on the economic front only its tourism sector has been impacted to a significant degree. It's hardly a "fair" comparison as it ignores so many other things about each nation's characteristics.
China's command economy has almost returned to normal while the USA's free market remains in free fall. China was able to use its political system to implement social controls which isolated COV19-affected people from infecting the rest of their nation. Maybe one could suggest China's health policies relating to COV19 are really economic policies, but that idea then taints the rationale for free market economies to adopt similar strategies.

as for vaccine what I and a few others have said :
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bu...hopes-a-grave-disservice-20200715-p55c3r.html
read my lips: WE WILL NOT HAVE A WORKING VACCINE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS
not me telling you that, relatively basic science, the one which is not asking for a new grant,gov funding;
This is a critical point which seems to be missed in the lockdown concept, so smooth the curve is and remain relevant. But we sadly need to let it propagate unless you expect eradication which is a pipe dream, but obviously many believe it can be achieve, just here because we are special on our island.
This naive attitude even within our governing bodies is killing this country economically.
As i said before, sooner or later even the dumbest in charge will realise and so the need of a political escape valve...
A great announcement of a vaccine by UQ/CSL let's add UNSW and ANU to avoid state conflict;
My 2c invest into CSL until the week after the announcement, you will need the cash by then

qldfrog said:

as for vaccine what I and a few others have said :
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/bu...hopes-a-grave-disservice-20200715-p55c3r.html
read my lips: WE WILL NOT HAVE A WORKING VACCINE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF YEARS
not me telling you that, relatively basic science, the one which is not asking for a new grant,gov funding;
This is a critical point which seems to be missed in the lockdown concept, so smooth the curve is and remain relevant. But we sadly need to let it propagate unless you expect eradication which is a pipe dream, but obviously many believe it can be achieve, just here because we are special on our island.
This naive attitude even within our governing bodies is killing this country economically.
As i said before, sooner or later even the dumbest in charge will realise and so the need of a political escape valve...
A great announcement of a vaccine by UQ/CSL let's add UNSW and ANU to avoid state conflict;
My 2c invest into CSL until the week after the announcement, you will need the cash by then

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Stop guessing!
There are over 100 vaccine candidates.
One or more may be effective enough to be in production next year.
Right now we do not know.
What we do know is that if there we get a viable vaccine, then it can be prioritised to the aged and those younger with chronic susceptible heath conditions.

SirRumpole said:

You can certainly see the political divide on this forum too. Those that keep banging on about individual rights and sod everyone else wouldn't be voting Labor I wouldn't think but opinions are also determined by personal circumstances. Those that are young and fit may think that the situation is all a hoax to extend political control over the populace, while those in vulnerable groups think restrictions are a good thing because it protects them. Vested interests are pretty powerful.

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I think this is a huge factor, which I've noticed talking to friends and clients. Most people support the position that suits their personal lifestyle right now (or political beliefs).
Anyone who is relatively anti-social or spends a lot of time at their home: firmly in favour of lockdown!
Anyone who lost their job, or works in hospitality: OPEN EVERYTHING UP!
Retirees who don't travel: LOCK IT DOWN.
Retirees who had a road trip or cruise booked in: REOPEN!
My Mum who plays golf: LOCKDOWN! (except golf courses...)

This review of what is happening in the US shows what is happening when this virus is out of control.

Reporting season starts soon, so at least then we will see the economic fallout to business.
From personal observations of family, friends and aquintances, all are working and all except for the one who owns a travel agency, seem to be doing o.k.
That is in Perth and country W.A, it may be worse over East, as it depends a lot more on the service and tourism industries.