Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[jbocker]

I can see that there are some who have some 'acceptance' to let some elders and the susceptible die in order to save some younger from suicide (due to lockdown and/or financial hardship). But I am not convinced that letting the virus rip does in itself prevents suicide nor prevents financial hardship for many. Having a virus loaded work environment causes stress for those who chronically fear its affect. After all it also a state of mind which can also lead to suicide.
I hear your argument and it certainly needs focus to prevention as much we do with the virus.

 

[moXJO]

I can see that there are some who have some 'acceptance' to let some elders and the susceptible die in order to save some younger from suicide (due to lockdown and/or financial hardship). But I am not convinced that letting the virus rip does in itself prevents suicide nor prevents financial hardship for many. Having a virus loaded work environment causes stress for those who chronically fear its affect. After all it also a state of mind which can also lead to suicide.
I hear your argument and it certainly needs focus to prevention as much we do with the virus.

People dying from the virus can cause just as much grief. Also any long term disabilities caused from the virus. We still seem to be learning about this disease.

Extended lock downs don't do anyone any favours either. The longer out of routine society gets the more social unrest starts brewing. Jobseeker and keeper were a smart and necessary move to keep it at bay. I have no doubt lock downs for business owners are highly stressful.

In Thailand a lot of people are dying from suicide. They couldn't afford to feed their families. Taxi drivers, tourist operators etc. Poorer countries are doing it extremely tough.

 

[jbocker]

Norway Sweden comparison (and Finland) Map shows location to each other the details of the virus as snap shot 14/07/2020 today from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Add the populations of Norway and Finland they approximate Sweden. Then look at the numbers. Significant and worth watching over time.

 

[wayneL]

I think the neglected metric is the promotion of fear of the virus.

*If*, and I do say if, this virus is really not worse then a bad flu season (which many health professionals are seeming to posit), then it is this fear which is creating the greatest economic effect both in terms of the behaviour of we proles and in government action.

When I was a kid in California the Hong Kong flu was running rampant and was actually a very big topic of conversation and concern... this I remember even though I was only about 8yo at the time.

But it didn't trash the economy, certainly not to the extent that we see today.

There are of course several facets to the current economic situation, but the promotion of fear is unprecedented.

 

[sptrawler]

There are of course several facets to the current economic situation, but the promotion of fear is unprecedented.

Which goes back to where we started, why is there so much fear being generated?

 

[Klogg]

You believe deaths is the issue here.
It is not.
It is the number of people being infected and the multiplier effect on the economy.
You cannot have a sound economy with high rates of infection.
More importantly, you cannot have a functional economy with an increasing R (ie. basic reproduction number).

In the shot term, you're very right. But once the wave is through, its through.

We can either face the music now, or forever lockdown our economy.

 

[rederob]

In the shot term, you're very right. But once the wave is through, its through.

We can either face the music now, or forever lockdown our economy.

There is no limit to the number of waves until a vaccine is available.
Additionally, well targeted "lockdowns" have proven effective and need not prevent the rest of the economy running normally.

 

[qldfrog]

Exactly. Half the population too sick to work does not an economy make. The combined man-hours lost due to lockdowns is waaay lower than whatever it would be if we just let the virus run rampant.

Figures? Sweden for example?

 

[qldfrog]

Which goes back to where we started, why is there so much fear being generated?

So the non conspiracy concept of a pushed reset
Virus as a pretext to a societal change.
Maybe to accept universal income in rightist minds or removal of freedom, ramping war for the "real leftist at heart"..so much being pushed under the covid pretext

 

[qldfrog]

So the non conspiracy concept of a pushed reset
Virus as a pretext to a societal change.
Maybe to accept universal income in rightist minds or removal of freedom, ramping war for the "real leftist at heart"..so much being pushed under the covid pretext

Btw, working like a charm judging by the reactions here and even denials of facts by even the most level headed persons of this forum.

 

[over9k]

Figures? Sweden for example?

Depends on how long the lockdowns are necessary for frog. You should know this.

NZ's basically life as normal (aside from the borders being closed) now and they didn't lock down for long at all because they did the lockdowns early/before the virus could really spread.

The U.S meanwhile is long past the point of no return.

 

[Klogg]

There is no limit to the number of waves until a vaccine is available.
Additionally, well targeted "lockdowns" have proven effective and need not prevent the rest of the economy running normally.

There sure is. Herd immunity is real.

If the counter argument is that the virus mutates, so immunity won't last... well neither will a vaccine in that case.

Related to lockdowns, check this out:



Sweden have only had minor modifications to their social distancing, but new cases are falling.


R-effective is basically below 0 in a country that has not locked-down.


Similarly, daily deaths are dropping:



Given they've run the same policy most of the way through, I'd say they're at the tail end of wave 1, with a reasonable portion of their population developing anti-bodies. Not enough for herd immunity yet, but they're much further progressed than Australia. We're just kicking the can down the road.


EDIT: If you'd like to debate the effectiveness of Sweden's approach, do so with data please. Not forecasts, not emotive articles - data.

 

[over9k]

Again, whether we all think lockdowns should occur or not is irrelevant. They're going to happen. Let's profit.

Kogan has now had a stellar run for example.

 

[moXJO]

Again, whether we all think lockdowns should occur or not is irrelevant. They're going to happen. Let's profit.

Kogan has now had a stellar run for example.

Its a great time for hobbyists, that's for sure.

 

[Klogg]

Again, whether we all think lockdowns should occur or not is irrelevant. They're going to happen. Let's profit.

Kogan has now had a stellar run for example.

You're right.

On topic:
I believe the price you're paying for online retailers in most cases is well and truly overcooked.
On the other hand, looking at physical retailers that have strong online components is a much better strategy.

Take a look at ADH. Two strong online offerings growing at 50%+.
Mocka alone generates ~$10m EBIT currently, with revenue about half that of TPW (but better margins). Yet with ADH you get the Adairs online & Adairs retail stores, along with Mocka, cheaper than TPW.
Go figure.

And, once COVID has passed, those retailers with physical components that actually survive, will enjoy a lack of competition and cheaper rental rates.

 

[over9k]

Agreed completely. This is walmart. Going down the gurgler until they announced walmart+, a proper competitor/version of amazon prime.

The vast majority of my capital is in U.S markets though so I obviously follow them much more closely.

AU's just chop chop chop for the next couple of weeks until we find out whether this victorian outbreak is going to wreck the whole country or not. We're currently in whack-a-mole mode with no certainty that we aren't going to go back to closed state borders, shut pubs etc etc again.

 

[IFocus]

There sure is. Herd immunity is real.

Sweden have only had minor modifications to their social distancing, but new cases are falling.

Given they've run the same policy most of the way through, I'd say they're at the tail end of wave 1, with a reasonable portion of their population developing anti-bodies. Not enough for herd immunity yet, but they're much further progressed than Australia. We're just kicking the can down the road.

Best I could find is 6% there is a 14% in a populated area that is a long way from herd immunity.

Not arguing against the Swedish model as its far too early will need at least 2 to 3 years before the different approaches can really be evaluated fully IMHO.

BTW Isn't what the US in some states are doing the same by default?

 

[Klogg]

Best I could find is 6% there is a 14% in a populated area that is a long way from herd immunity.

Not arguing against the Swedish model as its far too early will need at least 2 to 3 years before the different approaches can really be evaluated fully IMHO.

BTW Isn't what the US in some states are doing the same by default?

I've derailed this thread far too many times. Will respond later on in the appropriate thread if that's OK.

 

[over9k]

On a completely related note, anyone else just absolutely seething about/generally with the whole situation at the moment?

I mean the victorian outbreak was bad enough, but the fact that it's been allowed to spread is just unforgivable.

 

[Klogg]

On a completely related note, anyone else just absolutely seething about/generally with the whole situation at the moment?

I mean the victorian outbreak was bad enough, but the fact that it's been allowed to spread is just unforgivable.

Only that such an easily addressable issue was not fixed sooner.

If we are aiming to suppress the spread, let's do it right the first time.