Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[qldfrog]

I don't find these 'facts' useful. It's a pandemic; public health measures that worked in prior cases are in place. We await to see if they are successful. The thread is correctly focused on
"Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak"

You are right, i'd better shut up, and let people swallow the crap doctored news and buy the dip.
What would i know about China.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

goodness. Not having a go at you.

 

[Smurf1976]

The truth on this issue is that as of right now nobody knows with certainty how it will unfold and few if any people on the planet even have a firm basis upon which to make a prediction.

All we know with reasonable certainty is what can be observed and reasonably confirmed - cities shut down, borders closed, people evacuated, drops in commodity consumption, etc which collectively suggest it's a substantial problem at present but don't tell us what happens next.

 

[qldfrog]

goodness. Not having a go at you.

Sorry @Dona Ferentes , I'm on wechat with my team daily, 1000km from Hubei province and the impact there in the Guandong province is dramatic, no traffic, office and factory closed
i am getting frustrated by the ignorance of the public here
Not so much for health, it can be deadly but this is not the Spanish flu at all.
But as an economy the aftershocks in Australia can not be other than tremendous and we have absolutely nothing left to rely on outside China
Iron, coal,minerals, agri products and education/tourism hand in hand with China
They slow we freeze
https://www.news.com.au/finance/eco...k/news-story/24882341b49d4a0dfe9dc99c53fe641c

 

[sptrawler]

It is a real mess, we just don't know how much as smurf says, but it is easy to get caught up in it.
The Diamond Princess cruise ship is in quarantine in Yokohama, with about 4,000 passengers and crew onboard, I was on it 8 weeks ago for a month.
Just shows how luck can play an important part in your life.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/british-citizen-broadcasts-live-quarantined-124221526.html

 

[fergee]

https://www.ft.com/content/48bae4c0-472e-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441
Hyundai having supply chain issues, closing production lines.... who's next?

 

[SirRumpole]

The truth on this issue is that as of right now nobody knows with certainty how it will unfold and few if any people on the planet even have a firm basis upon which to make a prediction.

All we know with reasonable certainty is what can be observed and reasonably confirmed - cities shut down, borders closed, people evacuated, drops in commodity consumption, etc which collectively suggest it's a substantial problem at present but don't tell us what happens next.

The danger is that China won't tell us the real truth if it looks like that will interfere with their financial interests.

 

[fergee]

"LONDON (Reuters) - European stocks jumped sharply on reports that a Chinese university found a drug to treat people with the new coronavirus and researchers in the UK saying they made a "significant breakthrough" in finding a vaccine, several London-based traders said.

A scientist leading UK's research into a coronavirus vaccine told Sky https:// news that his team have made a "significant breakthrough" by reducing a part of the normal development time from two to three years to just 14 days.

Meanwhile, traders also cited a Chinese TV report that a research team at Zhejiang University has found an effective drug to treat people with the new coronavirus sharp for a rise in stocks."

 

[Smurf1976]

Incidentally in casual conversation with someone I don't know very well (but who has some interest in financial markets etc) I just happened to mention that "well we haven't seen any major panic about the virus yet".

They said nothing but looks said it all. Suffice to say I won't be mentioning it again to anyone I don't know extremely well - talking about religion would probably be a safer subject.....

 

[Smurf1976]

The danger is that China won't tell us the real truth if it looks like that will interfere with their financial interests.

It's a strange situation but I think one of the more accurate assessments will likely come from OPEC.

Yes the oil cartel - they're having a "technical" meeting in Vienna (OPEC headquarters) to examine the issue as a matter of urgency and given they've got $ billions at stake they'll be trying to get it right in terms of the impact on the oil market.

The outcome of that meeting isn't public and fair chance they won't say anything about what was discussed but it's to be followed by another meeting to decide on implementation and normal practice of OPEC is that this second meeting will be followed by a public statement. Keeping a watch on their oil production and whatever they say publicly after the next meeting will likely be somewhat more telling as to the real level of impact than any government statistics. Most alarming would be if they said absolutely nothing since the practice of making some sort of statement is well established.

 

[moXJO]

Possibly the real numbers leaked by tencent.

 

[qldfrog]

Possibly the real numbers leaked by tencent.

In term of impact Shanghai is now threatened by lockdown.
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/02/04/chinese-city-lockdown-approaches-shanghai.html
This would be massive as Shanghai is one of the 2 key heartlands of the chinese economy/industry
The other one is Guangdong province and the pearl river delta: HK, Shenzhen, Macao and Guangzhou.
So far, Guangdong is to reopen for business on Monday.
I will post if there are related news i im aware of

 

[qldfrog]

In term of impact Shanghai is now threatened by lockdown.
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/02/04/chinese-city-lockdown-approaches-shanghai.html
This would be massive as Shanghai is one of the 2 key heartlands of the chinese economy/industry
The other one is Guangdong province and the pearl river delta: HK, Shenzhen, Macao and Guangzhou.
So far, Guangdong is to reopen for business on Monday.
I will post if there are related news i im aware of

Actually Shenzhen shutting down public transport
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/bb4aST8-V61jxe6HHqAaAg
Open with chrome and run the google translate
Crudely:
In order to do a good job in the current stage of the new coronavirus epidemic prevention work in the public transport industry, to protect the health and safety of citizens and passengers, and to combine the current epidemic prevention and control needs, the industry's actual situation and passenger flow, from February 3, 2020, the city will appropriately adjust conventional public transport Line service scale. The relevant matters are notified as follows:


1. All regular bus lines will extend the departure interval, reduce the departure frequency or adjust to scheduled departures.


2. The operation of some regional buses, peak lines, night shifts, and inter-city bus lines is temporarily suspended.


3. Citizens are advised to plan travel time in advance, use mobile apps such as “Traffic in Hand” to check the real-time arrival status of conventional buses, or call the bus service hotline for travel consultation.

 

[Knobby22]

Do you think they will win?
I hear commentators saying the death rate is only 2%, no where near as serious as SARs but 1 in 50 people dying if this gets out seems a big deal to me. I don't want those odds personally or for my family.

 

[SirRumpole]

Do you think they will win?
I hear commentators saying the death rate is only 2%, no where near as serious as SARs but 1 in 50 people dying if this gets out seems a big deal to me. I don't want those odds personally or for my family.

Comparison of Corona virus with seasonal flu.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

 

[qldfrog]

Comparison of Corona virus with seasonal flu.

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

I think comparisons should be with h1n1 in term of infection.
Time will tell

 

[joeno]

@joeno : the voice of his/her master...
Anyway, toll rising, bodies burning

Yes you're right i'm a slave. I was paid. I'm a billionaire shill of commies. Where do you think i have all these 1000s of dollars to invest in the ASX? Anyways... conventional bias and bland "China is bad /didn't do ___ so they deserve it" which would be considered unacceptable if literally any other ethnicity was mentioned instead. I was more focusing on US's reaction but general ignorance is evident even in this thread.

Btw did Americo-sphere countries ban Africans when Ebola hit? Or North Americans with H1N1... Or Middle Eastern people when MERS was around? Hmm... no power play required for those countries.

I apologise for the Chinese / commies... they are ignorant of world affairs and are not cognisant of America's passive aggressive "power plays". Hence they made the choice of containing the disease & causing themselves a lot of damn trouble, rather than simply letting it be and spreading Coronavirus to the world. The wicked thrive and good demise. Can't be too nice/naive in this world. If only the commie government knew...

 

[joeno]

yet its not that serious "let some of our tourists/sick tour your hospitals please"

Hmm not sure if skinhead

yeah well when is the last time China gave aid or helped anybody but them selves, what comes around goes around

"Yeah well when is the last time Australia gave aid or helped anybody else but themselves, what comes around (bushfires) goes around"

^ about as true as your statement. It's not ok for Aussies to have treasonous attitudes (or commit treason). It's ok for Chinese people to have treasonous attitudes. It's not ok for people to talk bad about Australia when it's insensitive and there are victims. It's ok if it's China.

It's evident from those "falun dafa" protests to those Shenyun dance brainwashing cult b*******. Nonsense breeding nonsense. Righteousness in lying. A coward's profit in mutual dignity lost.

 

[qldfrog]

Hmm not sure if skinhead


"Yeah well when is the last time Australia gave aid or helped anybody else but themselves, what comes around (bushfires) goes around"

^ about as true as your statement. It's not ok for Aussies to have treasonous attitudes (or commit treason). It's ok for Chinese people to have treasonous attitudes. It's not ok for people to talk bad about Australia when it's insensitive and there are victims. It's ok if it's China.

It's evident from those "falun dafa" protests to those Shenyun dance brainwashing cult b*******. Nonsense breeding nonsense. Righteousness in lying. A coward's profit in mutual dignity lost.

@joeno You are so playing your own violin. Anyway, rants like that are numerous.all sides...
If you were a real supporter of Chinese people, not the CCP, you could have better issues to raise and real help to give
A quick ignore addition and the noice is gone.

 

[basilio]

Could this be a Black Swan event for the stock market and world economy ? It is not slowing down and the range of economic concerns is expanding by the day.

Will coronavirus make markets take a 'black swan' dive?
Impact of Chinese outbreak has already rippled out well beyond world’s No 2 economy

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...kets-black-swan-dive-chinese-outbreak-economy