Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Knobby22]

Australia beat Paris to the culture and I heard we can do it in 6 months.

 

[qldfrog]

Start counting before you can get immunised at your gp
So 01/08/20 we can get vaccinated in Australia ROL
You'd better be right but that will not save our mines or our tourism/education/casinos or luxury retails.even that early

 

[joeno]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51353279

The attitude on display from the US government and people is nothing short of ignorant. Showing childish animosity and apathy. The so called "leader" of the world is spreading panic and causing fear without an ounce of intention to help out with supplies, contrary to the recommendations of WHO. They're withdrawing all non-essential embassy staff and banning people coming/going from China from China. Causing a precedent for other countries to follow. Guess Americans are only around when there's something to gain (or dare i say, plunder)? Whether it's oil, cheap labour, and to enforce their suzerainty.

^ the type of free speech that would never be allowed to live in America. Typical hypocrites.

 

[ducati916]

China has now 'quarantined' +/- 50M people. With China accounting for +/- 19% of the world economy, and estimates that China will take a 3%/4% hit to GDP, that is +/- $500B to the world economy (so far).

That will eventually show up in local economies and if things don't improve soon, will start to exert a very negative effect on jobs etc.

jog on
duc

 

[againsthegrain]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-51353279

The attitude on display from the US government and people is nothing short of ignorant. Showing childish animosity and apathy. The so called "leader" of the world is spreading panic and causing fear without an ounce of intention to help out with supplies, contrary to the recommendations of WHO. They're withdrawing all non-essential embassy staff and banning people coming/going from China from China. Causing a precedent for other countries to follow. Guess Americans are only around when there's something to gain (or dare i say, plunder)? Whether it's oil, cheap labour, and to enforce their suzerainty.

^ the type of free speech that would never be allowed to live in America. Typical hypocrites.

yeah well when is the last time China gave aid or helped anybody but them selves, what comes around goes around

 

[qldfrog]

@joeno : the voice of his/her master...
Anyway, toll rising, bodies burning

 

[againsthegrain]

@joeno : the voice of his/her master...
Anyway, toll rising, bodies burning

yet its not that serious "let some of our tourists/sick tour your hospitals please"

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...s/news-story/c3447b296c96b23cdbc771b548c4f7e4
The more it goes, the more obvious it becomes it is a designer virus.
Man made...
Bj will blame the bad Americans
I just blame error/incompetence in the L4 lab.
I noticed how conveniently stable the death rate is
Yet 426 deaths, 20,438 cases
We were below 8000 cases a few days ago can we assume that the people who died were already infected then?
Fair assumption: so at least 426 deaths out of 8k contaminated that brings you 5pc mortality rates
And that is using Chinese fudged numbers
So epidemy is progressing, mortality rate is at very least 5pc not 2pc .i would trust the 10pc figure quoted by some scientists as quite realistic.
So do the count,
and learnt today that WHO and google facebook facebook twitters etc have joined to control the information on this outbreak.. obviously to prevent fake news..
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...-to-stop-spread-of-coronavirus-misinformation

 

[fergee]

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/h...s/news-story/c3447b296c96b23cdbc771b548c4f7e4
The more it goes, the more obvious it becomes it is a designer virus.
Man made...
Bj will blame the bad Americans
I just blame error/incompetence in the L4 lab.
I noticed how conveniently stable the death rate is
Yet 426 deaths, 20,438 cases
We were below 8000 cases a few days ago can we assume that the people who died were already infected then?
Fair assumption: so at least 426 deaths out of 8k contaminated that brings you 5pc mortality rates
And that is using Chinese fudged numbers
So epidemy is progressing, mortality rate is at very least 5pc not 2pc .i would trust the 10pc figure quoted by some scientists as quite realistic.
So do the count,
and learnt today that WHO and google facebook facebook twitters etc have joined to control the information on this outbreak.. obviously to prevent fake news..
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...-to-stop-spread-of-coronavirus-misinformation

Just because a virus has a lower mortality does not mean it is less dangerous. If the virus has a higher transmission rate (Ro) then more people may get said virus and more will die as a consequence. I have seen reports of coronavirus having an estimated Ro or 3-4.2(this is not yet proven) just for comparison sars was 2.0.
Here is Kate Winslet from the movie contagion to explain Ro.

 

[qldfrog]

indeed @fergee I do believe the reality is worse than what people are told, we have been fed a mortality rate of 2% ..which would still be very high , yet the sheer numbers provided show we are at at a minimum of 5%..See above calculation: happy to be demonstrated wrong
As for the propagation the estimates of 75'000 affected by HK uni was based on a conservative ro of 2.6 from memory; as long as ro is above 1, we are going for a serious issue. even at 5% mortality if 20% of China get affected, we are at 18millions deaths in China..sure some would die from other illnesses otherwise but that would collapse the hospital systems and many would die from other issues: accident, strokes, heart attacks. etc
And there is no reason this should stay confined to China
The "Spanish flu in 1918" killed more people than both WWI and WWII at a time when travel was slow, population much smaller than now and less dense mostly rural.
Netflix has a pre flu series Pandemy which is most interesting.Invest wisely, stay safe

 

[qldfrog]

Just because a virus has a lower mortality does not mean it is less dangerous. If the virus has a higher transmission rate (Ro) then more people may get said virus and more will die as a consequence. I have seen reports of coronavirus having an estimated Ro or 3-4.2(this is not yet proven) just for comparison sars was 2.0.
Here is Kate Winslet from the movie contagion to explain Ro.

BTW this is a very nice and clear explanation of ro

 

[basilio]

If we are really fortunate the international efforts to stop progression of the virus beyond China is largely successful. Hopefully outbreaks in Europe, US many other countries will be contained.

Having said that if China continues to sicken and more importantly the economic effects of an isolated China expand, then there will be a squeeze across the world.

In 2003 when SARS was about China represented around 5% of worlds GDP. It is now around 19%. That is a lot of grief..

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-composition-of-the-world-economy-by-gdp-ppp/

 

[SirRumpole]

Apparently a vaccine to protect against the Coronavirus will take around 20 months - if all goes well..

By which time the virus would have mutated into something else...

 

[sptrawler]

Macau Casino's to close due to virus.
https://www.malaymail.com/news/mone...lose-casinos-for-two-weeks-over-virus/1834366

 

[Smurf1976]

China's oil consumption is reported to have declined by 20%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-is-said-to-have-plunged-20-on-virus-lockdown

If true then that's outright massive and considering how oil is used it would seem a reasonable reflection of the "real" economy at least when viewed in the relatively short term (so ignoring any move to electric cars etc).

I oil use really is down 20% then we can expect to see some pretty substantial volume drops in most commodities.

 

[qldfrog]

China's oil consumption is reported to have declined by 20%

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-is-said-to-have-plunged-20-on-virus-lockdown

If true then that's outright massive and considering how oil is used it would seem a reasonable reflection of the "real" economy at least when viewed in the relatively short term (so ignoring any move to electric cars etc).

I oil use really is down 20% then we can expect to see some pretty substantial volume drops in most commodities.

so my plan against iron, if you stop economic activity in China for a month that is 10% of consumption going in smoke: maybe this year CO2 emissions there will NOT go up?
And this is an already incurred effect so prices should reflect that in iron, oil, copper.lesser effect on COAL but still there

 

[Dona Ferentes]

one doomster wrote the following

...Wuhan announces they have a problem.

To make matters worse the mayor of Wuhan tells everybody that up to 5 million residents of Wuhan had left the city before it was locked down.

Everyone starts staring at their smart phones watching scenes of ghost towns in China as residents take refuge behind locked doors and airline after airline announces that they won’t fly to China.
Company after company tells us they are telling their employees to stay at home.
Country after country announces restrictions on Chinese tourist arrivals.

I’ve never seen anything like this before. Have you?

All of which begs the question what impact will this have on the Chinese economy and the rest of the world?

I’ve got an answer. A lot!!

Will the Chinese grow at 4%, 3%, 1% in the first quarter? Will we get a negative Q1 GDP print?

I can’t quantify the impact to a decimal or even a percentage point, but if this continues for another month, 2 months or, heaven forbid, 6 months then China is in recession.

This all comes at a very, very bad time for China. Their significant corporate debt levels are already leading to a spike in corporate defaults and global companies were looking to shift production away from China. The coronavirus will exacerbate and accelerate both of these phenomena.

We know that China will respond with both fiscal and monetary stimulus. Perhaps we may even see a G-20 2008 style co-ordinated programme to support the global economy.

In this regard the coronavirus could well lead to governments engaging in fiscal stimulus as monetary policy loses its potency.....

You never know this could all be over in the next month, but somehow I don’t think so.

What I do know is that the feedback loops have been set in motion and they are negative and intensifying. When markets are priced for perfection even the smallest imperfection can lead to some degree of pain.

The coronavirus is much, much more than a small imperfection and it entails the dislocation of the second largest economy in the world and the one that contributes more to global growth than any other. This one is very different.

...but that was last weekend. He went on to say "Watch for the reopening of the Chinese equity markets after their New Year week-long break". That has now happened, the sky didn't fall in.

 

[qldfrog]

one doomster wrote the following ...but that was last weekend. He went on to say "Watch for the reopening of the Chinese equity markets after their New Year week-long break". That has now happened, the sky didn't fall in.

So all is good fall less than 10pc with up to 173billions usd of support by the Chinese reserve bank.
Lets go long
And i know the flu kills 60000 person a year we are not yet at a 1000..officially, in a bit more than a month

 

[Dona Ferentes]

And i know the flu kills 60000 person a year we are not yet at a 1000..officially, in a bit more than a month

I don't find these 'facts' useful. It's a pandemic; public health measures that worked in prior cases are in place. We await to see if they are successful. The thread is correctly focused on
"Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak"

 

[qldfrog]

I don't find these 'facts' useful. It's a pandemic; public health measures that worked in prior cases are in place. We await to see if they are successful. The thread is correctly focused on
"Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak"

That fact is
So all is good fall less than 10pc with up to 173billions usd of support by the Chinese reserve bank.