Economic implications of a SARS/Coronavirus outbreak

[Smurf1976]

Some data on the A, B, C equation

How many of those excess deaths were due to COVID-19?

That is those diagnosed as well as those who had heart attacks etc and were dead and presumably not even tested for it?

 

[Sdajii]

0.5% of it population officially to coronavirus.
But it is much higher. It is amazing how many people appeared to have recovered and die from stroke, heart attack etc. This is due to the effect of the virus wrecking blood vessels.

Utter garbage, and this will be very easy to see in the near future. In 1-2 years we will have the data set of human fatalities, and we'll see that there has been very little increase in the number of human fatalities. The vast majority of fatalities have been people who were not long for this world anyway, and this will become very evident when we don't see an overall increase in human death.

In Australia, obviously, it's not even a blip on the radar. 102 deaths so far in half a year, with the spike over, we're not getting any more deaths now. It's possible we won't get another one at all. 102 is well within the variation in the number of deaths Australia sees between one day and the next!

I don't think any country is going to see a reduction in population due to Chinavirus deaths. Maybe due to all the insane political and economic turmoil, there will be migration or war which will reduce the population of some places, but not the virus itself, because *it's literally killing people around the time the vast majority of them would have died anyway*.

 

[Knobby22]

"Australia's deaths are but a blip."
Yes, I agree! This low result is because we did the actions you so disdain. Circuitous logic.

Use the USA example to support your argument, official or unofficial figures, the result is the same, massive numbers of deaths. Note that with the official covad figures you have to take into account the fact that you are not counted unless you die in a hospital (nursing homes are not hospitals, nor your own bed) and also if you are in a state like Florida you are not counted if you have a pre existing condition. So tell me why you think there is such a low death rate again?

Or look to Brazil to support your argument. Have you seen the mass graves? Do you believe their figures?

The truth is that lies are being spread to hide the disaster to calm the populace. Clearly it is only partially successful.

 

[Knobby22]

Some data on the A, B, C equation

In Australia overall less people are dying than normal due to the lockdown due to less travel so less car deaths, transmission of the flu not occurring, less acidenents from other causes. Male suicides are up though.

The Twitter comment is obviously dubious.
Looking for an out.

My last comment on this, economically the way this pandemic is treated effects the economy.

If there is a vaccine developed then countries that have kept it under control will end up much better off. If not then eventually they will have to go down the same route as some other countries.
By then though, there will be better treatments and as you know I have a substantial investment in one company that is very promising in this space.

 

[qldfrog]

0.5% of it population officially to coronavirus.
But it is much higher. It is amazing how many people appeared to have recovered and die from stroke, heart attack etc. This is due to the effect of the virus wrecking blood vessels.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html

And it is the nations duty to look after its citizens, even people 60 years old and older. Not to mention the long term effects to people who recover.

And so we agree as long as we do not kill more by ongoing social and economy misery?
If the couple owning the cafe started less than a year ago and which will not reopen hang themselves:
The bump on the death curve will be attributed to what? Undetected covid19 or government decision?
Cafe is real, i hope suicide will not happen..

Not easy..while fast we were too slow in the initial lockdown..actually stopping flights from China and cruise ships control IMHO
But i also believe we are too slow in releasing control now at least internally.
We can all agree the balance is hard to find and interests multiple.
Ideology plays between self responsabilities and nanny state views.with the tweaks of irresponsibility affecting the global community..at least a bit
But we should agree that we have to work eat and live.
Which bring it down to vaccine
If you hope a vaccine is coming, we can carry on lockdown no release of control
If as i do, you believe/know no vaccine will be there in at least medium term..years..:
Then we need to learn how to live with it and this does not mean no pub or concert etc
It also means a more in depth look at death figures related to age existing health and temperature climate
I have no God's truth and we can all be wrong, but i trust my readings of facts more than our qld medical top guru on leash to a partisan leader
In every country there is an unprecedented power grab by gov in power.
This is twisting both what you are told and the decision making process, from China to France to QLD and even councils

 

[qldfrog]

And so we agree as long as we do not kill more by ongoing social and economy misery?
If the couple owning the cafe started less than a year ago and which will not reopen hang themselves:
The bump on the death curve will be attributed to what? Undetected covid19 or government decision?
Cafe is real, i hope suicide will not happen..

Not easy..while fast we were too slow in the initial lockdown..actually stopping flights from China and cruise ships control IMHO
But i also believe we are too slow in releasing control now at least internally.
We can all agree the balance is hard to find and interests multiple.
Ideology plays between self responsabilities and nanny state views.with the tweaks of irresponsibility affecting the global community..at least a bit
But we should agree that we have to work eat and live.
Which bring it down to vaccine
If you hope a vaccine is coming, we can carry on lockdown no release of control
If as i do, you believe/know no vaccine will be there in at least medium term..years..:
Then we need to learn how to live with it and this does not mean no pub or concert etc
It also means a more in depth look at death figures related to age existing health and temperature climate
I have no God's truth and we can all be wrong, but i trust my readings of facts more than our qld medical top guru on leash to a partisan leader
In every country there is an unprecedented power grab by gov in power.
This is twisting both what you are told and the decision making process, from China to France to QLD and even councils

And need to add that actual treatment is actually already much better at the very least in Europe.a lot has been learnt and your odds drastically improved vs 3 months ago.hopefully the info is shared but i would not bet on it when you see the mess with the chloroquine ...

 

[qldfrog]

Arrrggg European countries have already ordered and prepaid 300millions dose vaccine with astrazeneca.
A future vaccine...tests results in September
Anyone with an IQ above a frog can guess that the results will obviously be positive.the company will collapse otherwise..
I just hope we will not be forced to use these early half baked attempts..
On the other hand, release a placebo, give it a 50% success rate..psychology.if you get the covid19 after bad luck..but it would been worse without
and do like the flu now.
People who would have died would be gone already and we would just have an extra disease around with reduced life expectancy mostly the years in aged care
0 change but great for psychology
And if I'm wrong, well all is good and very happy to be proven wrong

 

[Sdajii]

"Australia's deaths are but a blip."
Yes, I agree! This low result is because we did the actions you so disdain. Circuitous logic.

Use the USA example to support your argument, official or unofficial figures, the result is the same, massive numbers of deaths. Note that with the official covad figures you have to take into account the fact that you are not counted unless you die in a hospital (nursing homes are not hospitals, nor your own bed) and also if you are in a state like Florida you are not counted if you have a pre existing condition. So tell me why you think there is such a low death rate again?

Or look to Brazil to support your argument. Have you seen the mass graves? Do you believe their figures?

The truth is that lies are being spread to hide the disaster to calm the populace. Clearly it is only partially successful.

The USA is by far the worst hit country, mysteriously so, but even so, let's look at it, the single most extreme example in the world.

There have now been over 100,000 deaths in the USA due to Chinavirus. Heck, let's ignore the fact that a lot of those people have been recorded as COVID-19 deaths despite the fact that other things killed them while they happened to be infected and would otherwise have recovered. Let's just look at the official figures and take them at face value (which I believe paint a far worse picture than the reality).

The USA has around 8,000 people die per day (this varies seasonally in a normal year, it's more than this in winter, but averaged to the nearest thousand, it's 8,000 per day). So far the Chinavirus has killed over 100,000 people in about half a year. The most relevant thing to keep in mind is that the vast majority of these people were going to die soon anyway!

Now, even if (and this is not the case at all) the Chinavirus deaths were actually extra deaths, not just people dying who were going to die anyway, the extra deaths per day this year would not even be as great as the difference in number of deaths per day due to seasonal variation!

The situation in Brazil is even less extreme. It's easy to get emotional and forget to think critically, when you have people would would have died over the next 6-12 months all dying within a couple of months, I mean, human death is a thing which people get emotional and irrational about and that's understandable, and I never have and never will try to discount how sad it is that those people lost a few months or in some cases a few years of their lives, but it's still not anywhere near as bad as the greater number of deaths and suffering which will be caused by the economic and social issues caused by the restrictions. There won't be any mention of the corresponding reduction in death rates over the next year or two, with funeral parlors etc having slower than usual business, you're just being shown and focussing on the immediate situation, not the big picture. The media isn't showing you emotive pictures of people who have hanged themselves, it's not publicising suicide statistics, it's not properly displaying the severity of the economic destruction, it's not encouraging people to think about the implications of a massive reduction in tax revenue and what this means for infrastructure, law, education, *HEALTHCARE* and how severe the impact will be for *DECADES*.

 

[IFocus]

Reading the comments here I now understand how the 2nd wave will be very possibly x number of times bigger than the 1st wave, some thing I couldn't understand about the Spanish flu.

Nothing like success breeding contempt.

 

[qldfrog]

Reading the comments here I now understand how the 2nd wave will be very possibly x number of times bigger than the 1st wave, some thing I couldn't understand about the Spanish flu.

Nothing like success breeding contempt.

As i tried to explain, and based on first hand contacts and families in France, people in countries which had to go thru the first wave and aware of gravity are now ready to face it.not a denial but awareness of danger yet relativity of it.
You are ready to drive a car, probably more dangerous for an 18y old than covid19. So yes it will spread but whereas the cases are still numerous, the number of deaths is decreasing and hospital non overwhelmed.
Note that northern hemisphere is in summer, and mask carrying now the norm.
Australia now has to decide if we want to become an Amish reserve or carry on living

 

[wayneL]

Reading the comments here I now understand how the 2nd wave will be very possibly x number of times bigger than the 1st wave, some thing I couldn't understand about the Spanish flu.

Nothing like success breeding contempt.

Undoubtedly a second wave, such is how epidemics work.

But... Important to distinguish data from narrative.

IE
Morbidity rate per 100,000 pop.
Co-morbidities
Excess morbidity rate
Median age of deaths Vs ave life span
Extraneous morbidities unrelated to covid, but as a result of economics
Morbidity rates Vs other viruses
... and a bunch of other vectors.

Such an awakening is required in order to look past the msm headlines and fear mongering and make a true and proper analysis

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

And so we agree as long as we do not kill more by ongoing social and economy misery?
If the couple owning the cafe started less than a year ago and which will not reopen hang themselves:
The bump on the death curve will be attributed to what? Undetected covid19 or government decision?
Cafe is real, i hope suicide will not happen..

Not easy..while fast we were too slow in the initial lockdown..actually stopping flights from China and cruise ships control IMHO
But i also believe we are too slow in releasing control now at least internally.
We can all agree the balance is hard to find and interests multiple.
Ideology plays between self responsabilities and nanny state views.with the tweaks of irresponsibility affecting the global community..at least a bit
But we should agree that we have to work eat and live.
Which bring it down to vaccine
If you hope a vaccine is coming, we can carry on lockdown no release of control
If as i do, you believe/know no vaccine will be there in at least medium term..years..:
Then we need to learn how to live with it and this does not mean no pub or concert etc
It also means a more in depth look at death figures related to age existing health and temperature climate
I have no God's truth and we can all be wrong, but i trust my readings of facts more than our qld medical top guru on leash to a partisan leader
In every country there is an unprecedented power grab by gov in power.
This is twisting both what you are told and the decision making process, from China to France to QLD and even councils

Very good points @qldfrog . However, climate does not seem to affect cases occuring. Compare Brazil to Australia to the USA in relation to climate and number of cases.

Releasing controls is more difficult than imposing them. In reality as with imposing controls the governments were advised by the doctors and they followed that advice, here. They also followed the advice in Sweden which was business as usual with disastrous consequences on lives lost and the economy. Denmark has taken the opposite tack to Sweden and is better off on both counts.

Lets assume a few things. From statistics which are skewed. I'll take Italy which has a higher number of older people than many other countries. The death rate in the age group is: 40-50 1% 50-60 2.7% 60-70 10% 70-80 25% 80+ 30%. Now all these older people have friends, or children, or grandchildren, or husbands or wives and all of the younger people have similar "ors", parents, siblings, children etc. So you cannot cookie cut a trade off between letting people die and business as usual. Workers will take time off to avoid a chance they may die even if it is 1% and will want to ensure their family get good care if they are sick. It is what makes us human, caring for others, worrying about sick people, well most of us anyway.

A vaccine is the real furphy. My doctor friends tell me it is pie in the sky until mid to late 2021. And the rub is that immunity from coronavirus and hence from a vaccine may well be very shortlived unlike influenza. How many colds do people get as opposed to influenza each year or two. Just think about it. Vaccines are for Wall St. and dreamers. And the Tangerine Clown in the White House.

The real answer in all of this is that nobody knows what the correct thing to do is. This virus is called novel for a good reason. It is new. Very new.

I do hope we get a vaccine soon and I do hope that small business and young workers and families are not blighted by the lockdowns. It is a very difficult situation we are in.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

Very good points @qldfrog . However, climate does not seem to affect cases occuring. Compare Brazil to Australia to the USA in relation to climate and number of cases.

Releasing controls is more difficult than imposing them. In reality as with imposing controls the governments were advised by the doctors and they followed that advice, here. They also followed the advice in Sweden which was business as usual with disastrous consequences on lives lost and the economy. Denmark has taken the opposite tack to Sweden and is better off on both counts.

Lets assume a few things. From statistics which are skewed. I'll take Italy which has a higher number of older people than many other countries. The death rate in the age group is: 40-50 1% 50-60 2.7% 60-70 10% 70-80 25% 80+ 30%. Now all these older people have friends, or children, or grandchildren, or husbands or wives and all of the younger people have similar "ors", parents, siblings, children etc. So you cannot cookie cut a trade off between letting people die and business as usual. Workers will take time off to avoid a chance they may die even if it is 1% and will want to ensure their family get good care if they are sick. It is what makes us human, caring for others, worrying about sick people, well most of us anyway.

A vaccine is the real furphy. My doctor friends tell me it is pie in the sky until mid to late 2021. And the rub is that immunity from coronavirus and hence from a vaccine may well be very shortlived unlike influenza. How many colds do people get as opposed to influenza each year or two. Just think about it. Vaccines are for Wall St. and dreamers. And the Tangerine Clown in the White House.

The real answer in all of this is that nobody knows what the correct thing to do is. This virus is called novel for a good reason. It is new. Very new.

I do hope we get a vaccine soon and I do hope that small business and young workers and families are not blighted by the lockdowns. It is a very difficult situation we are in.

gg

Agree with you GG on vaccine pipe dream, would disagree with some of your stats ..more exactly its assumption of ongoing effect and definitively as i can experience it, the resulting effect on behaviour.
How many people are in very bad health: serious diabetic obese and existing cancer etc...these are wiped by the first waves..no denial.aged a strong factor.but for the rest..the 99,%..well they want to carry one living.
Whole movements wants to change the society for the 99% against the 1pc..do not expect less with the virus.
Whatever you or i think will not matter much when the pression will rise.facts do not matter much as we can see with BLM etc
Economically the world will restart and now that noone care about plastic straws, we will see a huge GDP boost from the virus and related activities.

I always remember the saying best GDP creation is for the terminally ill in intensive care.however flawn, this indicator will rebound and so the market

 

[over9k]

Big talk of a second wave in china over the weekend. Lots of ASX red as a result. Will be interesting to see how U.S is effected now as everyone were expecting a massive bounce tonight and that's now looking uncertain.

 

[sptrawler]

Agree with you GG on vaccine pipe dream, would disagree with some of your stats ..more exactly its assumption of ongoing effect and definitively as i can experience it, the resulting effect on behaviour.
How many people are in very bad health: serious diabetic obese and existing cancer etc...these are wiped by the first waves..no denial.aged a strong factor.but for the rest..the 99,%..well they want to carry one living.
Whole movements wants to change the society for the 99% against the 1pc..do not expect less with the virus.
Whatever you or i think will not matter much when the pression will rise.facts do not matter much as we can see with BLM etc
Economically the world will restart and now that noone care about plastic straws, we will see a huge GDP boost from the virus and related activities.

I always remember the saying best GDP creation is for the terminally ill in intensive care.however flawn, this indicator will rebound and so the market

The real unknown about the virus, is if there are any long term residual problem with the virus, it may well have a dormant component that doesn't surface until the immune system becomes compromised with age or other causes.
Somewhat like shingles, they stay dormant until a person is run down, then they surface.
From what has been written about the virus, it has a HIV component, which in itself can only be controlled not erradicated.
If that is the case it would be far better to not get the virus at any age, it would also be better to let the virus run its course overseas, before allowing free flow of overseas travellers.
My guess is we aren't being told the whole story, it is the only possible answer, for such a radical intervention worldwide.
Just my opinion.

 

[basilio]

The real unknown about the virus, is if there are any long term residual problem with the virus, it may well have a dormant component that doesn't surface until the immune system becomes compromised with age or other causes.
Somewhat like shingles, they stay dormant until a person is run down, then they surface.
From what has been written about the virus, it has a HIV component, which in itself can only be controlled not erradicated.
If that is the case it would be far better to not get the virus at any age, it would also be better to let the virus run its course overseas, before allowing free flow of overseas travellers.
My guess is we aren't being told the whole story, it is the only possible answer, for such a radical intervention worldwide.
Just my opinion.

COVID 19 is totally new. Every doctor who is treating it acknowledges no one understands all the ramifications of the illness because these is insufficient experience of the disease . There are ongoing discoveries of longer term effects on people who have recovered. A number of children seem to be affected by associated illnesses. Scientists are aware of different strains of COVID 19 plus the probability of additional mutations.

All of these issues as well as its infectiousness and capacity to severely incapacitate and kill people makes it a serious threat.

Again, I just can't fathom how there are still people arguing to essentially let it rip when the experiences in China, Italy, France UK USA and Brazil (and many other countries) demonstrates the accelerating death and tragedy it brings.

Promoting the concept that we should have a freely functioning economy as per 2019 while thousands of people are falling sick and dying while infecting others who do likewise seems bizarre .

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

Big talk of a second wave in china over the weekend. Lots of ASX red as a result. Will be interesting to see how U.S is effected now as everyone were expecting a massive bounce tonight and that's now looking uncertain.

I liquidated my equity portfolio again last Friday. Just sitting on cash, precious metals and 2 small cap miners.

 

[over9k]

I'm slightly down from friday morning buy - there's been a +4 into friday afternoon and then -8 swing today literally just since friday morning. You'd be -12 or more if you'd bought friday arvo. The volatility is just nuts.

Here I've been arguing with a quant on the "trading the trend" thread that all the old rules underpinning his models (e.g AU following USA so if USA friday is green then AU monday should be) are out the window and he's still completely against me.

Good dip to buy into though.

 

[Chronos-Plutus]

I'm slightly down from friday morning buy - there's been a +4 into friday afternoon and then -8 swing today literally just since friday morning. You'd be -12 or more if you'd bought friday arvo. The volatility is just nuts.

Here I've been arguing with a quant on the "trading the trend" thread that all the old rules underpinning his models (e.g AU following USA so if USA friday is green then AU monday should be) are out the window and he's completely against me.

Good dip to buy into though.

I sold out last Friday afternoon after the open dumped and had a bit of a recovery, at which point I exited. I had only just begun to buy back in over the last few weeks as I liquidated my portfolio in mid February.

This may turn out to be a W shaped recovery or perhaps the market will fall below the March lows and linger around those levels for a while.

 

[over9k]

Yeah this is how I got hosed last week with BA - a double digit swing in a single day is just absurd.

As I've said in the other thread though, most of the AU stuff actually has solid fundamentals so it's not the wipeout it appears to be.

As I said previously, buy into it.

USA is very different and heading for a 2nd wave (which despite the news carryon, AU isn't) and I've parked everything I have there in stay at home stocks - zoom, ebay, paypal, amazon, cisco. The only other stuff I'd touch with a bargepole would be intel/amd/nvidia. MAYBE microsoft.