DXS - Dexus Property Trust

[nulla nulla]

Fortunately Dexus found support last week at the $0.955 level and didn't breakout downwards as the loose pennant suggested. Perhaps a reflection of the strength of the Dexus property portfolio and the returns projected for fiscal 2012-2013. This week will be telling.

 

[nulla nulla]

Dexus managed to hold above the support level throughout the week. Friday opened on a good high at $0.98 then tested $0.985 (briefly) before fading through the day to close out on $0.96.



The two year chart (below) shows the sideways upward path dxs has been tracking. The step ups have been taking less and less time as resistance levels became support levels. Discount to NTA, solid yields and diversity in their portfolio across office and industrial property has made them an attractive place to park funds for some and get better returns than bank rates. REIT's appear to be comming back in favour over the last few months with several of them closing the gap on their nta and a few now trading at a premium to nta.




The Table below shows the Basic financial status of DXS as at close of business on Friday 7/9/2012.

Share:	DXS
Date:	Closing 7-09-2012
Closing Price	0.96
Issued Shares	4,839,024,176
Capital	4,645,463,209
Earnings $	0.0765
Dist $	0.0535
Yield %	5.57%
P/E	12.55
NTA $	1.01
Discount to NTA	4.95%

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Personaly I'd like to see the distribution increase as a proportion of the earnings. I suspect this would make Dexus an even more attractive investment choice and encourage the share price upwards toward the nta.

Disclaimer: The above figure may have errors and should not be relied upon when making investment decisions. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

Dexus broke through the support level of $0.95 testing $0.935 on Tuesday. Fortunately the lows were higher on Wednesday and today suggesting that Dexus may be about to break out back above the resistance/support level of $0.95..or maybe not (?).



If it doesn't kick back upwards from here the next support level is $0.91. Ouch. d.y.o.r. and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

If I ran a line down from the 7 August 2012 close of $1.005 to the 26 September 2012 close of $0.965 it would give the chartist a pennant intersecting with the recent support line of $0.95 (which was previously a resistance line). Does this mean we should expect a downward break out next week or is dxs simply consolidating and taking a breather on the uphill battle to close the gap to nta?



Hard to know what to expect. There is probably grounds to an argument that the share price is supported to some extent by the share buy back but it is still trading at a discount to nta, a good price earnings ratio and a good yield rate. No doubt it is still attractive to the investors that sit and hold for yield better than bank rates as well. I have a bid sitting in the queue at $0.945, I wonder if I will get them next week or whether the support line of $0.95 will hold and I will miss out.

 

[brettc4]

A triangle is forming and it will be interesting to see if we break up or down.
Every up day for the last 2 weeks has been on below average volumes, which leads me to believe the down move is a little more likely.



However, the high Australian dollar is making australian assets appear cheap to the rest of the world, and with our stable economy, some countries would be looking at buying real estate which will help hold the share price.

 

[nulla nulla]

A triangle is forming and it will be interesting to see if we break up or down.
Every up day for the last 2 weeks has been on below average volumes, which leads me to believe the down move is a little more likely.

View attachment 49324

However, the high Australian dollar is making australian assets appear cheap to the rest of the world, and with our stable economy, some countries would be looking at buying real estate which will help hold the share price.

Actually it works the other way. The high aud$ makes our assets (and exports) expensive to the rest of the world. This is one of the reasons that foreign investors were selling off our reit's as the aud$ was climbing. Foreign investors were benefiting from the run up of the share price combined with the increasing value of the aud$. Bit of a bonus on cashing out their investments.

There is a theory that our reit's have become more attractive since the rba rate cut. Our aud$ has slipped back against the US$ and our reit's have good yield, low Price Earnings ratios and are better financed these days while some of them still have a good discount to nta.

Dexus traded sideways out of the pennant of 29/9/12 and now appears to be finding support between the $0.945 - $0.96 range. However trading levels appear lower and the investors don't appear to be very confident pushing dxs above $0.98 (although it has hit $0.985 on interday spikes twice in recent weeks).



With a nta backing of $1.01, dxs is not giving punters much head room to trade. The prospects of dxs being worth a premium to nta in the present economy is, in my opinion, unlikely.

Share:	DXS
Date:	16-Oct-12
Closing Price $	0.97
Issued Shares	4,839,024,176
Capital $	4,693,853,451
Earnings $	0.0765
Dist $	0.0535
Yield %	5.52%
P/E ratio	12.68
NTA $	1.01
Discount to NTA	3.96%

As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

Three (3) days on and very little has changed. Dexus appears to be range-bound between $0.96 and $0.98.



I reckon, that if the management could see their way clear to open up the distributions to a greater percentage of earnings, the dexus share price would narrow the gap on nta while still having a relatively low price earnings ratio. Still dxs remains a popular share in the market place and the volumes of turnover each day seem to act as a benchmark for the other reit's.

As always d.y.o.r and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

Management put together a slide show for institutional investors and it appears that they lapped it up...for a few days at anyrate. DXS jumped to the premium levels of $1.015 before the rockets ran out of fuel and the parachute opened. Falling back to close out the week at $0.985 dexus managed to hold at the previous resistance level.



It will be interesting to see whether this is the result of short term euphoria or whether $0.985 will become a new support level (as have most of the previous recent resistance levels). One more step on the rising step ladder or a peak to dip back from to establish a new trading range? What would I know? Watch this space and see what the future brings. For what it is worth, I sold out at $0.975 and the missus sold at $0.98. There is a dividend comming up in December and if the share price retraces it could be worth getting on board for a div/capital gain combo. I'm a bit wary of trying it at the present price level though. As always d.y.o.r and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

Dexus took a hit this week (as did a few other office focused reits's) closing out the week in the flurry of Friday sell off's at $0.965. The September Quarterly update released wasn't enough to stem the sell down although the drop wasn't as savage as some other reit's suffered.



If the share price doesn't rebound from here the next support levels are $0.96 and $0.955. Like other Australian reit's, Dexus is due to stump up a dividend in december which will no doubt influence holders and buyers alike. Distribution remains on track for 5.8 cents for year ending 30/6/13 (approx $0.029 for December?)
As always d.y.o.r and good luck. .

 

[nulla nulla]

They should rename Dexus "yacka". If it was any tougher, it would rust.



Back to the $0.98+ range in a heart beat. As always d.y.o.r and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

The three year chart shows the steady progress the dexus share price has made since the GFC low of march 2009. Sideways and upwards narrowing the gap to nta as management reduced debt, sold off non core assets, divested U.S. assets at book value or better and pursued their stated objective of focusing on value assets in Australia.



From a traders perspective, dexus has been a fantastic share to trade. As it climbed the upward/sideways channel, an entry on or near the lower bar followed by an exit near the upper bar (or at a profit level you were happy with to minimise risk) was the easiest trading I have ever enjoyed. Even when the share price seemed to be range bound from July to October 2012 between $0.94 and $0.98 there were plenty of trade opportunities. However from late October 2012 through to December 2012 dexus started to swing erraticaly. The movement was much harder to predict (imo) and the upward swings could be fantastic while the drops were comparable to comming off medication. Sudden and painful. In the last few months I found it hard to trade dexus and the recent dividend was not enough to entice me to try for a combo trade of div and capital gain.



The sell of the last few days seems to be over the top in my opinion. Are yield stocks out of favour already? The RSI chart now suggests dexus is moving into the oversold territory.



What now? A bounce back above $1.00 or further downward pressure to test the support levels of $0.98 and $0.96? I dunno. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

Like an oscilating pendulum Dexus has rebounded from the oversold area and is now testing even higher levels (since the GFC). You would have to ask yourself how long the love affair with high yield stocks can last and how high will the share price go before the yields at the new highs become less attractive and a sell off starts?



Watch out for the next increase in interest rates and the associated rise in the aud$ against the greenback. As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

Dexus continues to climb providing a spread of a few cents as it oscilates within the sideways upward channel. The challenge now seems to be whether we can trust the bullishness pervading the market and buy in on the dips with confidence the share price will recover versus being exposed to a crash when the "correction we must have" finally occurs.




As always, do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

Seems someone doesn't trust the pervading market bullishness and Dexus has been drifting down even before todays market fiasco. Unfortunately where most of the A-REIT's bounced off the lows soon after open Dexus could only try before closing out the day lower at $1.02.



Big volume today. it will be interesting to see whether dxs can bounce from $1.02 or will test the lows? As always do your own research and good luck.

 

[So_Cynical]

Seems someone doesn't trust the pervading market bullishness and Dexus has been drifting down even before todays market fiasco. Unfortunately where most of the A-REIT's bounced off the lows soon after open Dexus could only try before closing out the day lower at $1.02.

View attachment 51366

Big volume today. it will be interesting to see whether dxs can bounce from $1.02 or will test the lows? As always do your own research and good luck.

Must be close to breaking below the channel, i would think a strong buy at under $1

 

[nulla nulla]

At $1.02 the yield is over 5% and the share price is trading at a discount to nta. The discount to nta for a strong A-REIT share like dxs is unusual in recent months. On Fridays close, out of 17 shares in the A-REIT table I follow only four (4) shares were at break even or discount to nta. The rest were all trading at a premium.

Share:	DXS
Date:	18-Mar-13
Closing Price	1.02
Issued Shares	4,839,024,176
Capital	4,935,804,660
Earnings $	0.0557
ROE	5.46%
Dist $	0.0535
Yield %	5.25%
P/E	18.31
NTA $	1.03
Discount to NTA	0.97%

If it goes under $1.00 and I have any funds available I will double up my existing holdings and hold for a combo capital Gain and dividend play.

 

[nulla nulla]

Dexus bounced off $1.02 and quickly regained $1.06 (with a short burst to $1.065)on good volumes. The drop back to $1.035 - $1.04 was another re-entry opportunity and I went back for another tilt.




The world seems to be starting to put the Cyprus problems back in perspective and I am anticipating it will be business as usual next week. As always D.Y.O.R. and good luck

 

[nulla nulla]

Pinch me I must be dreaming. Dexus closing at $1.175 after tapping $1.20?



They sold a property and no doubt are cashed up. Not sure whether investors are looking for a capital return or increased dividend? I would expect surplus funds to be used to pay down debt and reduce their gearing. After all the sale of a property also means a drop in income and their yield and returns on equity are not the highest among the A-REIT sector? as always do your own research and good luck.

 

[ASAP]

Actually it works the other way. The high aud$ makes our assets (and exports) expensive to the rest of the world. This is one of the reasons that foreign investors were selling off our reit's as the aud$ was climbing. Foreign investors were benefiting from the run up of the share price combined with the increasing value of the aud$. Bit of a bonus on cashing out their investments.

There is a theory that our reit's have become more attractive since the rba rate cut. Our aud$ has slipped back against the US$ and our reit's have good yield, low Price Earnings ratios and are better financed these days while some of them still have a good discount to nta.

Dexus traded sideways out of the pennant of 29/9/12 and now appears to be finding support between the $0.945 - $0.96 range. However trading levels appear lower and the investors don't appear to be very confident pushing dxs above $0.98 (although it has hit $0.985 on interday spikes twice in recent weeks).

View attachment 49348

With a nta backing of $1.01, dxs is not giving punters much head room to trade. The prospects of dxs being worth a premium to nta in the present economy is, in my opinion, unlikely.

Share:	DXS
Date:	16-Oct-12
Closing Price $	0.97
Issued Shares	4,839,024,176
Capital $	4,693,853,451
Earnings $	0.0765
Dist $	0.0535
Yield %	5.52%
P/E ratio	12.68
NTA $	1.01
Discount to NTA	3.96%

As always do your own research and good luck.

where do you get this information from???

 

[nulla nulla]

ComsecIress/Huntleys, Dexus Annual Reports, Dexus ASX Notices and ASX End of Day Share Prices. I keep a spread sheet and try to keep it up to date when any changes are announced. From time to time the data may be out of date or contain errors and it should not be relied upon when making investment decisions.

Hence my closing comment: As always, do your own research and good luck