DXS - Dexus Property Trust

[So_Cynical]

If only they would have cashed in when property was booming and the US$ was twice the value it is now against the AUS$. Smart people who baught the assets you'd think.

Yep hindsight....the list of property's sold looks like a lot for a lousy 760 mill > 69 property's works out to be only 11.7 mill each average price...oh well, deals done and at least it wasnt done at fire sale prices like would of been the case 2 years ago.

REITS are breaking out a bit all over it seems. Wonder if they will continue through May!! Dividends r still good I guess.

The rally :dunno: ~ however dividends yep...with the increase DXS should start paying annual payouts above 6 CPS giving me a ROE of around 8% with 7 CPS closer to 9% not spectacular but i never expected the returns to be.

Ok for me cos im like 60% free carried anyway...and sitting on an cap gain of around 20% now.

 

[notting]

The rally :dunno:

Just referring to strong moves in MGR, CHC,ABP that had caught my I

Ok for me cos im like 60% free carried anyway...and sitting on an cap gain of around 20% now.

Can't be unhappy with that

 

[nulla nulla]

The Aud$ has come off its highs and is now back to parity with the US$. France and Greece are in the headlines as changes in government prompy international fears about europen sovereign debt and the survival of the Euro.

Dexus unloaded some US assets and the share price has now spiked up so the the previous resistance level of $0.905 has seemingly become a suppport level and recent trading suggests $0.93 may also be a support level. The gap between nta and share price has narrowed but the return on investment has not increased, the current share price infact deminnishing the yield ratio.

There was a rumour that Dexus was looking to take over the management of CPA from Colonial (like Charter Hall took over Macquarie office management) but i'm not sure the synergies of operation and additional income would justify the share price spike.

There is another distribution due in June (pays in August) but again I can't see this being big enough for a price push in the lead up. Perhaps players are taking positions to cover the posibilities of the acquisition of management rights, the div and the possibility of a capital gain down the road.



As always do your own research. Trade the volitility.

 

[So_Cynical]

(7th-May-2010) I've been watching Dexus for quite some time and last nite decided that DXS would be my primary target for acquisition today, just after the open was successful at 0.77

(14th-December-2010) In on today's dip @ 0.775 my second DXS entry this year and hopeful that at some point in the near future ill be able to exit at above 0.85

I totally sold out of Dexus today at 0.935 for a trade profit of around 20% ~ so with distributions an annual profit of about 15% PA for the 2 years that ive held. seriously who the hell would put money into TD's in this market. :dunno:

Still lots to like about DXS going forward, but i needed to free up some capital for recycling, trying to take advantage of this market low...more than happy to buy back in at under 0.82 if that ever happens again...GL to the holders.

 

[nulla nulla]

I totally sold out of Dexus today at 0.935 for a trade profit of around 20% ~ so with distributions an annual profit of about 15% PA for the 2 years that ive held. seriously who the hell would put money into TD's in this market. :dunno:

Still lots to like about DXS going forward, but i needed to free up some capital for recycling, trying to take advantage of this market low...more than happy to buy back in at under 0.82 if that ever happens again...GL to the holders.

You have done well. THe combination of initial purchase, accumulation on dips, distributions and ultimate capital gain over a two (2) year period has probably outperformed the market in general in the same period.

(seems there is a problem preventing attachments atm, just pretend there is a chart here showing the last six months movements. )

There is another distribution coming up this month which I suspect will hold the price up even in these Euro impacted times. I will be looking for a re-entry arround the $0.91 (or lower) area depending on what happens after it goes exdiv and what the market is doing re Europe toward the end of this month.

 

[notting]

Went short at .95.
Aus property is starting to crack at the foundations.
Should be a good spanking soon.

 

[nulla nulla]

Went short at .95.
Aus property is starting to crack at the foundations.
Should be a good spanking soon.

Personally I reckon the drop on Monday will not be as bad for Aussie REIT's as it will be for finance and mining. If anything there will likely be a drop followed by a fight back as other investors take advantage of any dip seeing reit's as an avenue of some security.

 

[notting]

Personally I reckon the drop on Monday will not be as bad for Aussie REIT's as it will be for finance and mining. If anything there will likely be a drop followed by a fight back as other investors take advantage of any dip seeing reit's as an avenue of some security.

I agree that there should be some short term relative strength due to dividend value and safe as houses perception. However, the blood will be everywhere, and the Ausi housing boom should finally get it's long overdue correction/collapse.

 

[skc]

I agree that there should be some short term relative strength due to dividend value and safe as houses perception. However, the blood will be everywhere, and the Ausi housing boom should finally get it's long overdue correction/collapse.

Dxs has no residential properties as far as I know. The dividend yield will hold this up for a while. Best time to short is a few days before ex-div imo. Also i think retail REITs are more at risk (and hence their higher dividend yield) so I'd short cfx or cqr instead

 

[notting]

Will do!
Pretty sure it's not going to be hard to take it off on Monday if I decide to!
Thanks for the input SKC.

 

[nulla nulla]

Dexus Chart?




jigjam

 

[nulla nulla]

Dexus appears to be moving up and value closing the gap with the nta. $0.95 appears to be a resistance level however the current pricew levels could be influenced by the forthcoming distribution. dxs appears to have well and trully broken away from the trading band of $0.76 - $0.865 with the more recent resistance level of $0.91 now being a support level.



Then again this could just be a market reflection of the "flight to safety" where shareholders are looking for stability and yields until the Spanish/Greek omellete finishes cooking. As always dyor

 

[nulla nulla]

In recent months dxs has been enjoying support around the $0.91 and resistance around the $0.95 levels. But in the last week or so dxs has tracked steadily down from it's recent highs and is now testing the support level of $0.91. Whether this is cyclical or indications something serious is undermining the share price, I don't know.





If it doesn't bounce here, I fear (when it goes ex-div before the end of June) that it may continue down and test the previous support level of $0.865. No doubt there will continue to be volatility in this share price as well, as rumours circulate about take overs (management of cpa?), inflated property prices, falling occupancies, the two speed economy and what ever the analysts had for breakfast last week. As always d.y.o.r. & good luck .

 

[nulla nulla]

I took a moderate entry in the closing auction thursday week ago entering at $0.915. I immediately popped a sell in the queue at $0.945, happy if I could get a $0.03 margin before close Friday this week before it went ex-div. I wasn't impressed when it went $0.905 on Monday but was happy as it climbed through the week.



A partial sale on Thursday was a nuisance and the opening drop on Friday made it look like I would be holding until next week for the div. Fortunately an upward spike arround 2:00pm took me out. I was surprised to see the share price drift back and close on $0.93. It wouldn't surprise me to see dxs test the sub $0.90 levels of the channel next week. As always d.y.o.r & good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

Didn't quite reach the sub $0.90 that I expected on Monday when it went ex-div, tapped $0.905 then rocketed back up to test $0.95 through the week.



Would have to be one of the fastest recoveries from going exdiv i have ever seen. Anyone holding for the combo, div and capital gain, would have made an impressive short term profit.

 

[nulla nulla]

Dexus appears to be at a very interesting place at the moment. Trading since August 2011 has seen the share price rise almost like a step ladder as they consolidate assets, return special divs, undertake a buy back and take institutional investors on a tour of their assets. Management appears to be ticking all the right boxes and the share price has narrowed the gap to nta.



Question has to be...Can the share price go higher or will it be impacted by what is going on in the rest of the world? Watch this space for the next exciting episode of DEXUS REIT Super Hero (Pun intended). As always D.Y.O.R. and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

Dexus continues to move sideways in the range $0.905 - $0.95. Dropping back to $0.91 early in the week and testing $0.94 in interday trading on Friday 13-7-2012. The current volitility appears to be influenced by perceived weakness in the other sectors encouraging investors to seek out the safe (?) shares like dexus with discounts to nta, low price earnings ratio's and yields better than bank rates. Then, of course, when the mood swings to a more bouyant market perspective, the investors dump the reits and rush back to the mining sectors etc.



The see-sawing mood swings create plenty of liqudity and a trade-able spread for the brave/insane investors. D.Y.O.R and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

The Dexus share price movement is getting very interesting. The share price appears to be moving in a patern of climbing stairs. Previous resistance levels are becoming support levels and the channels (steps) appear to be getting tighter. The recent move by investors seeking yields has also seen the channel bands tighten and the upward movement occuring over a shorter period in the trading channel.



First question occuring to me is whether the share price can turn the recent resistance level of $0.95 into a support level as the share price narrows the gap to the NTA? Not as easy to trade the channels lately as the share price appears to surge just when you might think the trading channel is settling into a routine.
Second question has to be whether the share price can sustain these levels in the face of the impending European meltdown and the tightening of credit globaly? As always d.y.o.r & goodluck.

 

[nulla nulla]

From mid July dxs kept testing the support level of $0.96 then bounce up to test $1.005 on 1/8/12 and again on 7/8/12 before dropping back to double bounce off $0.945 on 10/8/12 and 13/8/12.

Unfortunately the rebound to $1.00 on 15/8/12 was tenuous at best and the release of the 2012 results on 16/8/12 saw the share price fall testing $0.955 again on Friday. The summary report tried to put as positive a spin on the results and prospects for 2013 & 2014 as they could but the reality set in. A profit slump of 67% is a disaster in anyones language. Someone stuffed up with "mark to market" hedging and the income stream going forward will be under pressure to achieve the forecasts from day one.




With the published NTA of $1.00 per share, IMO, the yield of $0.0535 does not warrant Dexus trading at a market price equal to nta or a premium. Don't be surprised if there are more falls and changes in Dexus management. Do your own research and good luck.

 

[nulla nulla]

This week the market absorbed the report and dexus retreated from the nta value of $1.00 to find support at the $0.955 - $0.96 level.



Personaly, I was disappointed with the result and was surprised dxs didn't fall further. As it is, the chart represents a loose pennant and I can't see the justice in dxs breaking out upwards. I feel that management needs to show a little more innitiative and put into practice a working plan to get profit (and returns for investors) back on track. As always D.Y.O.R. .