DXS - Dexus Property Trust

[robusta]

Entry / Exit with a small profit x frequency. In the current climate not a long term holder but certainly worth trading the swings. Occaisionly hold for the div and wait for the post exdiv fall/rebound to close out the trade (div plus trade profit, double dip). As always dyor.

Thankyou nulla nulla, hope it works out. I have a limited understanding of that type of trade. Goodluck

 

[nulla nulla]

Dexus took a small backward step today, but it is hard to see that the dividend has been factored into the price. However, it managed to stay above the resistance / support line of $0.785. Hopefully it can now work its way back up to the upper resistance levels of $0.815 then $0.835. Pushing into the upper channel levels of $0.86 would be even better and a break-out toward the net tangible asset value would be a most welcome xmas present.

 

[pixel]

For over a year, DXS has been oscillating in a rather narrow channel between 78 and 86c.



Since early December, it seems to have found support near the lower level of that channel, and my daily template is now showing a string of potential reversal signals:



That could be due to going ex-div next Thursday, December 23rd. But is 2.5c really worth stripping? Maybe there is more to it. I'll keep watching closely for an opportunity to join the register.

 

[nulla nulla]

Dexus went ex-div today (Div $0.0259). Closed yesterday on $0.815, fell to $0.79 shortly after open this morning then climbed back to close on $0.815. Hopefully it can hold it tomorrow and improve further next week.

 

[So_Cynical]

In on today's dip @ 0.775 my second DXS entry this year and hopeful that at some point in the near future ill be able to exit at above 0.85 same as last time...i find it a little strange that there seems to be so many (apparently) easy dividend/distribution plays available at the moment, DXS dipping down to the bottom of its trading channel a week or so before ex date just don't make alot of sense to me. :dunno:

I posted the above 9 days ago on 14th December, the (apparent) easy dividend/distribution play i saw turned out to be even more easy and profitable than i thought selling today would of got any conservative punter an easy 6.59 cents per share (8.5%) profit in only 9 days....and selling tomorrow may well turn out to be even better. :dunno:

 

[nulla nulla]

I posted the above 9 days ago on 14th December, the (apparent) easy dividend/distribution play i saw turned out to be even more easy and profitable than i thought selling today would of got any conservative punter an easy 6.59 cents per share (8.5%) profit in only 9 days....and selling tomorrow may well turn out to be even better. :dunno:

And if it breaks above the resistance level of $0.615, selling next week could be even better. I hope you bought enough volume to make your 8.5% ++ worthwhile.

 

[nulla nulla]

dxs held the pre div level lifting to close on $0.82. I like the chart but recent trading makes it apparent there are a few more ressistance levels it needs to break before it will get back to the upper levels of the trading range.

 

[So_Cynical]

14th-December-2010 - In on today's dip @ 0.775 my second DXS entry this year and hopeful that at some point in the near future ill be able to exit at above 0.85 same as last time...i find it a little strange that there seems to be so many (apparently) easy dividend/distribution plays available at the moment, DXS dipping down to the bottom of its trading channel a week or so before ex date just don't make alot of sense to me. :dunno:

Distribution ex date of 23 December and a 2.59 CPS distribution sounds ok to me.

Out today at 0.815 for a 4 CPS profit, plus the 2.6 CPS distribution, so a return of about 8.3% for my 1 month investment....not the exit i was planning for but i saw an opportunity to take a big average down into Suncorp so decided it was best take the profit and switch my DXS trade capital over to SUN.

As per my trading/investment/retirement plan i have left a small amount of capital and all the profit in Dexus, thus increasing my long term holding by about 80% and my free carry shares to about 50% keen to re-enter DXS the next time the SP dips below 0.78

 

[nulla nulla]

Out today at 0.815 for a 4 CPS profit, plus the 2.6 CPS distribution, so a return of about 8.3% for my 1 month investment....not the exit i was planning for but i saw an opportunity to take a big average down into Suncorp so decided it was best take the profit and switch my DXS trade capital over to SUN.

As per my trading/investment/retirement plan i have left a small amount of capital and all the profit in Dexus, thus increasing my long term holding by about 80% and my free carry shares to about 50% keen to re-enter DXS the next time the SP dips below 0.78

I dropped out yesterday also at $0.82. This was a return of $0.035c on my entry of $0.785 plus the dividend of $0.0259 giving a total return of $0.0609, 7.76% before brokerage. Not bad for a short term hold.

I will be looking for a re-entry arround $0.80 or lower.

 

[So_Cynical]

I dropped out yesterday also at $0.82. This was a return of $0.035c on my entry of $0.785 plus the dividend of $0.0259 giving a total return of $0.0609, 7.76% before brokerage. Not bad for a short term hold.

Its just so easy hey Nulla it amazes me why everyone isn't doing this :dunno: seriously who would have money in a term deposit when easy safe returns like this are so plentiful in this market...it was like the ASX gods served this up for us, the SP tanking 2 or 3 weeks before ex div and then back up to 4-5% from the bottom after the ex date.

 

[nulla nulla]

Its just so easy hey Nulla it amazes me why everyone isn't doing this :dunno: seriously who would have money in a term deposit when easy safe returns like this are so plentiful in this market...it was like the ASX gods served this up for us, the SP tanking 2 or 3 weeks before ex div and then back up to 4-5% from the bottom after the ex date.

And, naturally, 2 days after I sold it rallied to $0.84. Not to worry, dxs appears to be cyclical and I expect further opportunities will arise to be in low for more trades.

 

[nulla nulla]

Friday wasn't a good day for REIT's. The foreign sovereign debt issues are expected to put a crimp on the balance sheets of those companies borrowing offshore as the credit crunch tightens available money and increases the cost of borrowing. Eventually some one must wake up that most of the Australian REIT's have reduced their borrowing and spread the refinancing across 2012 and beyond.

 

[nulla nulla]

After retracing to $0.81 - $0.82, the market woke up and decided dxs was/is a buy. Now testing the upper channel levels of $0.86 and closing the gap on it's nta value, the question to decide is: Has dxs peaked or is it going to break out of the channel and keep going north?

 

[So_Cynical]

After retracing to $0.81 - $0.82, the market woke up and decided dxs was/is a buy. Now testing the upper channel levels of $0.86 and closing the gap on it's nta value, the question to decide is: Has dxs peaked or is it going to break out of the channel and keep going north?

Personally i vote for a fall back to under 0.78 that way i can load up again and pocket some more easy money...The REIT's are still range bound, however eventually they will all get a leg up when the general market starts to push fresh highs....i really hope the market stays range bound and going sideways, 12 more months of this and i reckon i could grow my net worth by maybe 30 or 40%

 

[nulla nulla]

The moving average is going in the upward direction, the volumes are good and the Relative Strength Index can't make up its mind as to whether the share price is overbought and due to fall or whether it can go higher.
The share price retraced a small amount today, but then the whole market (except perhaps Telstra) retraced today.
The all ords hovering arround 5000 is making a lot of investors nervous. Can we go higher on the back of our low unemployment, Increasing occupancy of office space, lower gearing, improving returns or are we about to see a minor/major correction. DYOR.

 

[nulla nulla]

And just when you thought it couldn't go much higher it bangs on another 5%. The RSI chart suggests the share is moving into the overbought area as the gap between the share price and the moving average opens up. The share price has narrowed the gap to the nta value.



The long term view makes you wonder if Dexus has finaly broken out of the channel?

 

[So_Cynical]

And just when you thought it couldn't go much higher it bangs on another 5%. The RSI chart suggests the share is moving into the overbought area as the gap between the share price and the moving average opens up. The share price has narrowed the gap to the nta value.

View attachment 41477

The long term view makes you wonder if Dexus has finaly broken out of the channel?

View attachment 41478

Its a break out! .. i wonder if the trendy"s are on to it.? time will tell if the channel is broken for good, as i said in my last post in this thread, or its just a extraordinary intermediate top....Alot of the RIET's seem to be making fresh highs.

The REIT's are still range bound, however eventually they will all get a leg up when the general market starts to push fresh highs.

Maybe we need to look at a longer term chart...and consider that perhaps the channel is widening, with the upper trend line moving up a little? so perhaps a new bottom of around 79 or 80 cents? :dunno:
~

 

[nulla nulla]

Is $0.85 a new support line? Can we expect dxs to move into a higher level trading channel from here? Or is it only a temporary reflection of market sentiment? What ever it is Dexus is a trader as the market in Australian REIT's struggles to close the gap with NTA and maintain value going forward. My only reservation is that Dexus still has a significant exposure to the U.S.A property market.

 

[So_Cynical]

Is $0.85 a new support line? Can we expect dxs to move into a higher level trading channel from here? Or is it only a temporary reflection of market sentiment? What ever it is Dexus is a trader as the market in Australian REIT's struggles to close the gap with NTA and maintain value going forward. My only reservation is that Dexus still has a significant exposure to the U.S.A property market.

I reckon the bottom trend line on my chart will hold, mite take a while for the SP to get down to that line and that trend line could well end up at the 81 or 82 cent level by that time....anyway the days of buying DXS at under 79c could very well be gone, unless there's a major shift in sentiment.

 

[nulla nulla]

So_Cynical looks like he may have got this right. Dexus appears to be determined to hold onto the $0.86 level as a baseline and appears to be getting plenty of support trying to test the $0.87 and higher levels. All the more surprising when you consider the AUD$ continues to test higher levels and this is a big disincentive for overseas hedge funds to pick up dexus.

I have revised my entry points upward (for now) to the $0.80 - $0.82 level (if it gets down there again).