DXS - Dexus Property Trust

[nulla nulla]

Time to throw the rule book out. Dexus is striking out into unknown territory.

Will have to watch and see where it goes. The punters appear to be trying to close the gap between the NTA and the share price. With the rising dollar devaluing the overseas holdings i can't see the basis for Dexus jumping to the current levels.

 

[nulla nulla]

Started the week looking good: U.S commercial properties picking up value as an alternative to domestic rentals; The Aud$ romping away from parity with the U.S$; and Blackstone making a move on Valad reminding everyone that the Australian REIT's trading at a discount to NTA still have appeal to overseas investors.

Then it ran out of puff.

 

[Tekwrek]

Started the week looking good: U.S commercial properties picking up value as an alternative to domestic rentals; The Aud$ romping away from parity with the U.S$; and Blackstone making a move on Valad reminding everyone that the Australian REIT's trading at a discount to NTA still have appeal to overseas investors.

Then it ran out of puff.

Being so low in the sp, It does look very attractive as a takeover target.

 

[nulla nulla]

I'm surprised the big international hedge funds aren't trying to grab the Dexus U.S. assets via a share holding accumulation and challange to management, like they appear to be doing with CQO.

Also there doesn't seem to have been any announcements recently in regard revaluation of Australian & U.S assets to reflect improvement in commercial property values either (unless I missed them).



Nice upward channel developing, the lows are getting higher but the highs seem to be meeting rsistance in the $0.905 - $0.915 range. Could be building for an upward break out or????? As always DYOR & goodluck.

 

[nulla nulla]

Watching the small rebound in the reit sector Friday & Yesterday, dxs looked the odd one out as it held the $0.74 - $0.75 range while the others showed improvent.

I see DXS as closely matched to IOF in local and overseas property portfolio's, so when IOF picked up a few cents I jumped on board dxs at $0.75. A few minutes later I jumped off the train when the price hit $0.775



Quickest trade I've ever done with dxs. If the news stays good I expect the share price to return to the low to mid $0.80's and I will be looking for another entry.

 

[nulla nulla]

With the benefit of the market bounce, dxs rattled up to $0.835 at open on thursday morning but followed the market trend back down to $0.775 at close of business on Friday. It could test the lows again (and lower) in the next few days/weeks but in my opinion it is getting into the oversold territory.



IMO watch closely for any market recovery as dxs has shown it will go up just as quickly as it comes down. As always DYOR

 

[nulla nulla]

Like a stampeding Elephant there was no stopping dexus this week. Don't be surprised to see a retrace when the merger acquisition speculation runs out of fizz. Good to see it get closer to the nta.



Watch for a re-entry if you were like me and bailed out too early.

 

[nulla nulla]

Like a jet fighter in a vertical climb nearing maximum altitude, dxs goes into a stall but manages to find suffucient support to stop from plunging back to recent lows. Trading this week in a volitile but tight band it would seem that the dexus share price is regrouping for another try for higher altitude.



But wait, what is this, a heat seeking misile from europe and another one from the u.s.a. Can dexus avoid going into free fall again? Stay tuned for next weeks update as we continue to try and survive in this current volatile and extremely hostile environment.

 

[nulla nulla]

After the last post, where dxs looked like it was gathering strength for an upward surge, dxs rolled over and plunged down for ten days falling to $0.775. Three days later dxs is back on it's feet testing $0.85. This must be what it is like when you go bungy jumping and spring back up after the initial plunge.



Like bungy jumping, I would not be surprised if we see a few more dips and rises before dxs finds a consistant patern again.

 

[So_Cynical]

After the last post, where dxs looked like it was gathering strength for an upward surge, dxs rolled over and plunged down for ten days falling to $0.775. Three days later dxs is back on it's feet testing $0.85. This must be what it is like when you go bungy jumping and spring back up after the initial plunge.

View attachment 44707

Like bungy jumping, I would not be surprised if we see a few more dips and rises before dxs finds a consistant patern again.

Its an amazing trading stock...well has been, i would of make good money ignoring everything else and just waiting for the trading opportunities in DXS to appear.

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I'm going to the Dexus AGM on the 31st October...just for the hell of it. it will be my very first AGM, looking forward to the coffee and biscuits.

 

[nulla nulla]

The reit sector took (to me anyway) a slightly disproportionate down turn friday mid afternoon and I was about 1 minute too slow throwing a bid into the queue at $0.81. Subsequently, after selling through the bidders in front of me (and a few cross trades to bidders behind me) at $0.81, the share price jumped back up to $0.83 leaving me at the ticket window.



Not to worry, I'm pretty close to the front of the queue for the next irrational down swing.

 

[nulla nulla]

After missing the buy in dexus on Friday at $0.81, I pulled the bid. Yesterday when dexus dropped to $0.77 I jumped in. Hopefully Mr Bernanke's speech will spur the aussie reit sector as well and dxs will get back up above $0.83.

 

[nulla nulla]

The three year chart shows dxs continues to trade sideways in a tight price range. $0.77 seems like a reliable entry point. The share price has shown it can drop further in line with the panic of the herd but when the market regains confidence, sometimes in a matter of hours, days or weeks, it rebounds.



As always dyor

 

[nulla nulla]

It has been an interesting fortnight for Dexus. The Sydney Morning Herald (BusinessDay section) splashed a large article by Carolyn Cummins (Commercial Property Editor) on the front page suggesting the Australian REIT sector needed to refinance $7 Billion of debt, with Dexus needing to roll over half a billion or there abouts in the short term. Ms Cummins indicated that Simon Wheatleys research team at Goldman Sachs had reservations that the REIT's would have problems refinancing because of the European sovereign debt impact on foreign banks funding A-REIT's debt etc etc etc. It was also suggested that some REIT's may need to do further capital raising.

The next issue had the same article (almost verbatum) on the second or third page and then later in the week Ian Verender weighed in with (IMO) a further wishy washy article (must have been having a quiet week).

Mirvac was the only REIT that reacted to the articles by issuing a notice.

Then on thursday last week (less than two weeks after the negative press), Michael Evans (in the same paper) debunked the earlier articles in a four (4) paragraph column "Flip Flop" advising that Mr Wheatley and his team had changed their minds "...We are not too concerned..". Mr Evans closed with the comment "Wonder what happened in the meantime?"

The share price got slapped down. Thats what happened. Sometimes you wonder about the relationship of journalists and broking firms.

On Saturday Ms Cummins article "The refinancing debate" has been relegated to the back page. The article reads like a back flip to the earlier press and tries to make out the current low levels of debt ratios around the 22% to 36% are high. All in all (IMO) a fairly pointless article.



It will be interesting this week to see whether dxs rallies from the tentative support at $0.815 or slides further back. As always DYOR and don't believe everything you read.

 

[nulla nulla]

Seems the market likes dexus and wasn't too worried by the confusing articles splashed arround in the previous two weeks. The main players in the A-REIT sector all faired well on Thursday and Friday of last week and DXS was no exception, surging to $0.86 in Fridays close.



As with CPA, I will wait to see where dxs is going before jumping in at these levels. If it drifts back along the lines of previous retraces I have a couple of low ball bids in the queue to take advantage of any opportunities.

 

[So_Cynical]

I'm going to the Dexus AGM on the 31st October...just for the hell of it. it will be my very first AGM, looking forward to the coffee and biscuits.

Attended the AGM today and came away with the following impressions.

• The Sydney Westin Hotel is one hell of a beautiful hotel..very classy.
• Lots of old people attended the AGM.
• Lots of old people asked silly questions.
• Clearly some share holders know little about how company's operate (silly questions)
• DXS will probably do a share buy back at some point in the near future.

Highlight of the meeting besides the gourmet sandwiches and luxurious surroundings was a little old lady in front of me at the table where pens, note pads and voting forms were laid out for use, nonchalantly picking up a handful of pens (about 20) opening her hand bag and dumping them in.

 

[nulla nulla]

You should never become emotionaly attached to the shares in your share portfolio, unless of course it is dexus. You gotta love a share that regularly moves in a consistant patern providing reliable entry & exit points for nominal increments allowing long term build up and excellent annual return on your capital.



Even better when you can combine a low entry point with the lead up to dxs going ex-div and hold for the combo capital gain and dividend. Watch this space for any fresh entry points between now and late December. As always, dyor, all care and no responsibility.

 

[nulla nulla]

You should never become emotionaly attached to the shares in your share portfolio, unless of course it is dexus. You gotta love a share that regularly moves in a consistant patern providing reliable entry & exit points for nominal increments allowing long term build up and excellent annual return on your capital.

Even better when you can combine a low entry point with the lead up to dxs going ex-div and hold for the combo capital gain and dividend. Watch this space for any fresh entry points between now and late December. As always, dyor, all care and no responsibility.

Sorry, forgot to include the chart in the first post.

 

[So_Cynical]

Dexus breaking out today (0.93) on the back of all this positive sentiment and yesterdays announcement about the sale of almost all the unwanted US assets, the Buy back and the new increased dividend payout policy.

http://www.dexus.com/upload/asxanno...ortfolio and capital mgmt initiatives.doc.pdf

Chart below of my DXS trading and holding activity's (spewing i had no money for the last big dip ) and the recent price action.
~

 

[notting]

Dexus breaking out today (0.93) on the back of all this positive sentiment and yesterdays announcement about the sale of almost all the unwanted US assets.

If only they would have cashed in when property was booming and the US$ was twice the value it is now against the AUS$. Smart people who baught the assets you'd think.
REITS are breaking out a bit all over it seems. Wonder if they will continue through May!! Dividends r still good I guess.