Dump it Here

[Skate]

Hi @Skate , Just curious if you got an update to the open positions of the Ducati Strategy? Also do you see EOS & AD8 are at a good entry point?

@Bazzi "The Ducati Daily Blue Bar strategy" is a daily strategy but I've decided to update the portfolio results after the close on Fridays. (a) As you have asked I'll update the strategy Dashboard as of the close of trade yesterday. (b) I'll also throw up the two charts for "EOS" & "AD8" so you can see the buy signals on the chart. When a signal is in a trade another is not generated till after it has been closed.














Hope this helps..

Skate.

 

[Bazzi]

@Bazzi "The Ducati Daily Blue Bar strategy" is a daily strategy but I've decided to update the portfolio results after the close on Fridays. (a) As you have asked I'll update the strategy Dashboard as of the close of trade yesterday. (b) I'll also throw up the two charts for "EOS" & "AD8" so you can see the buy signals on the chart. When a signal is in a trade another is not generated till after it has been closed.

View attachment 102353




View attachment 102354




View attachment 102355


Hope this helps..

Skate.

Thank you Skate!

 

[Skate]

Start Date: 18th March 2020
Portfolio Capital: $120,000
Positions in the Portfolio: 8
Fixed Position Sizing: $15,000



1. TNE @ $7.00 for 2142 shares on the 18th March 2020
2. PPH @ $2.99 for 5016 shares on the 23rd March 2020
3. BTH @ $0.47 for 31914 shares on the 25th March 2020
4. NXT @ $7.94 for 1889 shares on the 25th March 2020 - # SOLD 9th April 2020 @ $8.46
5. PNV @ $1.53 for 9803 shares on the 25th March 2020
6. NAN @ $5.45 for 2752 shares on the 27th March 2020
7. SLC @ $0.54 for 27777 shares on the 27th March 2020
8. NCZ @ $0.076 for 197368 shares on the 27th March 2020





















Skate.

 

[Skate]

Oh NO ! "The Ducati blue bar strategy" has a buy signal today for "SGH" - Slater & Gordon (I nearly fell off my chair). This signal would test my resolve as I'd be shaking in my boots investing even $1 on this dog let alone $15k. Personally I'll be following closely along as this might be the first time "The Ducati blue bar strategy" disappoints. (for the life of me, I can't see how it can't)

Well here's another one for the books "The Ducati blue bar strategy" has a buy signal today for "TER" - Terracom Limited I wouldn't be buying this position with your money let alone mine"

Follow your system
I was told many years ago, "Don't think you are smarter than your system" For those who are following these two dogs "SGH" & "TER" - "The Ducati blue bar strategy" gave two buy signals that rattled me. To tell you the truth I wouldn't have taken either of these two positions, not even with counterfeit money. After a few days the portfolio would be up $3,806.










Skate.

 

[ducati916]

View attachment 102381

Follow your system
I was told many years ago, "Don't think you are smarter than your system" For those who are following these two dogs "SGH" & "TER" - "The Ducati blue bar strategy" gave two buy signals that rattled me. To tell you the truth I wouldn't have taken either of these two positions, not even with counterfeit money. After a few days the portfolio would be up $3,806.


View attachment 102382




View attachment 102383


Skate.

Really aimed more at the discretionary crowd, but, still applicable to you systems chaps!

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

View attachment 102402

Really aimed more at the discretionary crowd, but, still applicable to you systems chaps!

jog on
duc

Do you mean that odds of success decrease as discipline and willingness increase?
This is so opposed to my learning and principles..
I noted the graph was drawn on the corner of a napkin: where did you find an open cafe?

 

[ducati916]

Do you mean that odds of success decrease as discipline and willingness increase?
This is so opposed to my learning and principles..
I noted the graph was drawn on the corner of a napkin: where did you find an open cafe?

Not my napkin!

The napkin is actually rather ambiguous. Does it mean:

(a) Discipline/Willpower are negatives; or
(b) Discipline/Willpower in the absence of a system/methodology are negatives; or
(c) Has the curve been incorrectly drawn; or
(d) Other?

I have all manner of screenshots from through the years collected on my computer (hence a lot of historical charts etc). I can't actually remember the context from when I grabbed it years ago.

But nicely noticed.

jog on
duc

 

[barney]

Really aimed more at the discretionary crowd, but, still applicable to you systems chaps!

Lol … What a nasty picture

Does it mean

It means neither a) b) nor c)

The "operative" words in the picture are "RELYING ON"

 

[Newt]

Or perhaps Napkin Zen is warning unless we are "one with the system", we will find ourselves having to constantly and consciously call upon our willpower to fight ourselves.

"Be one with the napkin and the system, grasshopper....."

I think I'm ready to branch out into selling super expensive vague guru trading courses now I'm full of bull#@%#

 

[ducati916]

Lol … What a nasty picture



It means neither a) b) nor c)

The "operative" words in the picture are "RELYING ON"

Could well be: so (d) Other.

jog on
duc

 

[ducati916]

Or perhaps Napkin Zen is warning unless we are "one with the system", we will find ourselves having to constantly and consciously call upon our willpower to fight ourselves.

"Be one with the napkin and the system, grasshopper....."

I think I'm ready to branch out into selling super expensive vague guru trading courses now I'm full of bull#@%#

"Do or do not, there is no try."

Yoda

jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

I'm throwing this one out there

"The Ducati blue bar strategy" gave two buy signals that rattled me. To tell you the truth I wouldn't have taken either of these two positions, not even with counterfeit money. After a few days the portfolio would be up $3,806.

When you doubt your strategy you won't have the confidence to trade it religiously without hesitation - "The Ducati blue bar strategy" springs to mind. I & a few others have questioned the effectiveness of this strategy, a strategy relying on only two indicators.

I've been thinking
After reading a few threads (a) "when-do-you-determine-when-to-buy-a-stock" thread (b) "how-far-will-the-market-fall" thread & (c) "when-to-buy-a-stock" thread. These are questions we all seek answers to no matter where we are in our trading journey.

Let's take this post (how-far-will-the-market-fall thread)

Yes there have been quite recently actually. The unknown drop in late 2018 had a beautiful V-shaped recovery and went onto make new highs as nothing ever happened. When there is no clear reason, stock market commentators and news web sites make fancy guesses at what caused it, like 6 reasons for the drop I don't know what'll happen but I think a perfect V-shaped recovery like the late 2018 through to early 2019 is unlikely.

@aus_trader spoke about the drop in 2018 that had a V-shaped recovery & referenced this article https://www.pbs.org/newshour/econom...ors-that-fueled-the-stock-market-dive-in-2018 so we could better understand why. In hindsight we can all make up a story to fit the narrative.

What about this post (when-to-buy-a-stock)

What do you guys look for when you buy a stock, and when do you decide to pull the trigger?

@SensibleInvesting nailed his first post by asking: "when do you decide to pull the trigger?" a simple question not easy to answer.

Whoa, let's backup a little
Duc has given us "The Ducati blue bar strategy" & the "DUC Indicator" (which by-the-way is private & confidential) so I'll concentrate on making an Indicator out of "The Ducati blue bar strategy". The Indicator gets a new name & colour coding so there is no confusion. the indicator has been named: "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator"

"The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator"
This new indicator can be used quite simply to answer all the questions above. The Stop bars are "RED" & the Go bars are "GREEN", just like traffic lights (the yellow ribbon means to be cautious) So how do we use "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" & what is it correlated to? - The answers will be in the next post.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

"The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator"
First let's recap the "The Ducati blue bar strategy". The strategy is simple in its execution by buying a position on the bar after the first "Blue" bar & "Sell" that position on the bar after the first "Red" bar. The new "Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" is just as simple. "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" displays red & green bars indicating when it's safe to trade & when it's not.

How does the indicator work?
Quite simply if you have a "Green" bar you are good to buy, if the bar is "Red" stop trading. My initial research uses the correlation of the "S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Monthly Index (XJOA)" applied to individual stocks. The indicator uses a "Monthly Periodicity" of the (XJOA) for smoothing effect. The periodicity of your trading strategy is insequential.

When is it safe to trade?
When it comes to answering "when is it safe to trade?" & "when do you decide to pull the trigger?" is answered by "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" that uses traffic lights. Green means GO & Red means Stop, the yellow ribbon means to be cautious.

Charts to come
In the next post I'll throw up some charts to see if the traffic lights picks up the scary trading periods correlated against "S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Monthly Index (XJOA)".

Skate.

 

[Skate]

"The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator"
There have been three recent scary trading periods bandied about on a few threads so I'll use them as an example. (1) The GFC (2) The unknown drop in late 2018 & (3) our most recent COVID-19 scare. I won't be commenting on the charts other than to say that we would have been wise not to trade the red bars between (31 Dec 2007 to 30th April 2009) the GFC period. We would have been well served not trading during "the unknown drop, late 2018" (31st December 2018 to 28th February 2019). With the advent of COVID-19 we should have ceased trading on the (28th February 2020) & be currently sitting on the sidelines waiting patiently for the next green bar to come along indicating it's safe to start trading again.

1. GFC red bars (31 Dec 2007 to 30th April 2009)







2. The unknown drop, late 2018 red bars (31st December 2018 to 28th February 2019)







3. COVID-19 red bars (starts on the 28th February 2020)




Summary
@ducati916 original idea of using two indicators to measure "volatility & volume" has developed into a stand alone trading strategy & now as a stand alone indicator. Both worthy in their own right.

Disclaimer
I'm not saying "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" is perfect or it should be used as a guide when it's appropriate to be "in-or-out" of the markets "but" posted to stimulate thinking along those lines & nothing else.

Fresh perspective
I'm sure with further research & refinement "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" may alleviate some of the fears associated with trading.

Skate.

 

[frugal.rock]

Some food for thought.
Was perusing the March 2020 Quarter Results Presentation for NCZ. Now, am not currently holding.
While the results look ok, the forward outlook looks better...
Why am I posting this here instead of the apparently more pertaining thread?
Because something else in the report jumped out at me.
The current situation with Zinc itself.
Production is crashing, according to NCZ report, half of the top 10 global mines are shut down or offline to some degree. Smelters are reducing
prices to attract more feed.

It's been on my mind for a while, that's to say, what the catalyst may be for the 10 year? down trend cycle on the POZ to reverse.
From my understanding zinc storage levels are at lows as well?
Something has to give. Up goes zinc.
Have I got the right track on this?

From my understanding @peter2 would probably be all over this already as I believe you follow the zinc price? And @Smurf1976, no doubt you have more stats than one can poke a stick at!?
Am I wrong in thinking that this has legs? Cheers.

F.Rock

 

[Skate]

From my understanding @peter2 would probably be all over this already as I believe you follow the zinc price? And @Smurf1976, no doubt you have more stats than one can poke a stick at!?
Am I wrong in thinking that this has legs? Cheers.

@frugal.rock I might be "misreading" your post. You say: "I believe you follow the zinc price?" - sorry that's not correct. I'm a 100% systematic trend trader - meaning I jump on confirmed trends & get off when they are finished. To be honest I don't even know the name of the company or their business model that I'm buying & frankly I don't care - they are just ASX codes to me.

8. NCZ @ $0.076 for 197368 shares on the 27th March 2020

"The Ducati Daily Blue Bar strategy"
It so happens NCZ is in the "The Ducati Daily Blue Bar strategy" portfolio, that's my total involvement. I'm sure other will chime in to answer your question.

Skate.

 

[Smurf1976]

And @Smurf1976, no doubt you have more stats than one can poke a stick at!?

Only thing I can add to this one is that zinc isn't necessarily zinc, there are differences in the purity of it and that comes down to there being two distinctly different production processes each itself having some minor variants. As with most things, the quality of the product affects its financial value - zinc isn't all the same!

The pyrometallurgical and electrolytic processes both start with the same basic step of roasting which in simple laymans terms means the zinc concentrate, the ore from the mines, is literally burnt (and it burns rather well, much like coal). From there the rest is vastly different.

Pyrometallurgical process: Roasting > Sintering > Retorting > Casting of metal.

Electrolytic process: Roasting > Leaching > Purification > Electrolysis > Casting of metal. For simplicity this process is commonly referred to as the RLE process (Roast Leach Electrolysis).

The pyrometallurgical process results in a zinc purity of around 98% which is good enough for galvanizing but that's about all. In contrast the electrolytic process produces two output streams - High Grade at 99.95% purity and Special High Grade at 99.995% pure zinc.

A major byproduct is sulfur dioxide, usually used on site to manufacture sulfuric acid, indeed there's more of that by weight than there is actual zinc produced. So the acid is a by-product financially but it's actually the largest product in physical terms.

Australia is the third largest zinc mining country with mines in the NT, Qld, WA, NSW and Tas and with major smelting operations located at Hobart and Townsville.

Just on 2% of the world's zinc is refined at the Hobart plant, which uses the RLE process, with production about half each of 99.95% and 99.995% grades.

Apart from the zinc concentrate from mining, other key inputs to the process are a fair bit of water and rather a lot of electricity most of which goes into the electrolysis stage of the process.

From an investment perspective though I'll caution that zinc companies have tended to be a bit like airlines. A very large scale operation involving lots of fancy equipment but it sure wouldn't be the first time a zinc company went broke indeed they seem to spend a lot of time on the edge financially, interspersed with the occasional boom where the money is made but things tend to look pretty grim much of the time.

 

[ducati916]

"The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator"
There have been three recent scary trading periods bandied about on a few threads so I'll use them as an example. (1) The GFC (2) The unknown drop in late 2018 & (3) our most recent COVID-19 scare. I won't be commenting on the charts other than to say that we would have been wise not to trade the red bars between (31 Dec 2007 to 30th April 2009) the GFC period. We would have been well served not trading during "the unknown drop, late 2018" (31st December 2018 to 28th February 2019). With the advent of COVID-19 we should have ceased trading on the (28th February 2020) & be currently sitting on the sidelines waiting patiently for the next green bar to come along indicating it's safe to start trading again.

1. GFC red bars (31 Dec 2007 to 30th April 2009)

View attachment 102424





2. The unknown drop, late 2018 red bars (31st December 2018 to 28th February 2019)

View attachment 102425





3. COVID-19 red bars (starts on the 28th February 2020)

View attachment 102426


Summary
@ducati916 original idea of using two indicators to measure "volatility & volume" has developed into a stand alone trading strategy & now as a stand alone indicator. Both worthy in their own right.

Disclaimer
I'm not saying "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" is perfect or it should be used as a guide when it's appropriate to be "in-or-out" of the markets "but" posted to stimulate thinking along those lines & nothing else.

Fresh perspective
I'm sure with further research & refinement "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" may alleviate some of the fears associated with trading.

Skate.

So Mr Skate, the indicator will simply run alongside the various systems and issue a signal, which can be taken or ignored in a discretionary manner?

jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

So Mr Skate, the indicator will simply (1) run alongside the various systems and (2) issue a signal, which (3) can be taken or ignored in a discretionary manner?

@ducati916 the indicator can be used in that way but I've coded it in such a way it integrates forming a part of my strategy.

Clarification
(1) Runs inside a strategy
(2) It's an indicator that allows a position to be taken if the strategy buy condition is met & on the flip side an OR statement is integrated into my looping exit strategy.
(3) As system traders we don't enjoy the benefits of being discretionary - when the indicator is GREEN it allows a position to be taken as per the strategy conditions - when the indicator is RED we get a forced sell.

In layman's terms
When the strategy generates a buy signal the "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" has the final say, meaning if the "S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Monthly Index (XJOA)" bar is "Green" bar you are good to buy. Normal exits still apply but the "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" is constantly looping & if the "S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Monthly Index (XJOA)" bar is "Red" an exit signal is generated.

How effective is the indicator
The indicator works extreme well, not perfect because of the inherent lag. Overall I'm very impressed.

What's next with "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator"
John Ehlers has done a lot of work formulating many ideas how to reduce lag & recently written a paper on the advantages applying rapid adaptation to volatility in price movement. Ehlers often modifies the alpha term of indicators by the amplitude of an oscillator scaled in standard deviations from the mean resulting in responsiveness by using different input parameter that are well suited for trend-following. I'm hoping that one size fit all (with minor compromises) but that's to be determined.

Let's Recap
1. "The Ducati blue bar strategy" - this is a "stand-alone" strategy that is very simple & effective trading strategy. (using two indicator)
2. "DUC Indicator" (is private & confidential) sheer brilliance & extremely effective
3. "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" integration went smoothly & surprisinging as effective as the two above in simplicity & results. I feel with reduced lag the "stop & go" feature will be a great addition to my stable of tools.

Skate.

 

[ducati916]

@ducati916 the indicator can be used in that way but I've coded it in such a way so it integrates in & forms part of any strategy.

Clarification
(1) Runs inside a strategy
(2) It's an indicator that allows a position to be taken if the strategy buy condition is met & on the flip side an OR statement is integrated into my looping exit strategy.
(3) As system traders we don't enjoy the benefits of being discretionary - when the indicator is GREEN it allows a position to be taken as per the strategy conditions - when the indicator is RED we get a forced sell.

In layman's terms
When the strategy generates a buy signal the "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" has the final say, meaning if the "S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Monthly Index (XJOA)" bar is "Green" bar you are good to buy. Normal exits still apply but the "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" is constantly looping & if the "S&P/ASX 200 Accumulation Monthly Index (XJOA)" bar is "Red" an exit signal is generated.

How effective is the indicator
The indicator works extreme well, not perfect because of the inherent lag. Overall I'm very impressed.

What's next with "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator"
John Ehlers has done a lot of work formulating many ideas how to reduce lag & recently written a paper on the advantages applying rapid adaptation to volatility in price movement. Ehlers often modifies the alpha term of indicators by the amplitude of an oscillator scaled in standard deviations from the mean resulting in responsiveness by using different input parameter that are well suited for trend-following.

So you managed to integrate the indicator to run inside your various strategies...nice.

I'll be interested to see how it performs in the 'bounce' that we have currently. A timely signal should the bounce (start to) collapse into a second low, would be very advantageous and I daresay profitable.

That is certainly where my current attention is: trading the bounce.

jog on
duc