Dump it Here

[Skate]

Well here's one for the books



Oh NO !
"The Ducati blue bar strategy" has a buy signal today for "SGH" - Slater & Gordon (I nearly fell off my chair) with @Trendnomics words ringing in my ears "you have to become comfortable with something that can be unbearable at times, to avoid emotional tinkering"

I've turned religious
I'm praying that "SGH" doesn't make it to the end of the day as a buy signal. This signal would test my resolve as I'd be shaking in my boots investing even $1 on this dog let alone $15k. Personally I'll be following closely along as this might be the first time "The Ducati blue bar strategy" disappoints. (for the life of me, I can't see how it can't)

Skate.

 

[Newt]

1) "Momentum" is a consequence of the statistical anomaly - we are currently saying, that the airplane flies due to it having wings (current answer depth).
2)Diversification/Position sizing does not attribute to a system being profitable or unprofitable - it does however contribute to the degree of profitability for a system with a positive expectancy + it determines the risk of ruin and ruin level of a system. But no amount of Diversification/Position sizing, will result in a long term profit, for a system with a negative expectancy. Diversification/Position sizing also has no impact on the underlying price action of a financial instrument. We can safely eliminate this as an answer.

So following on this TN, perhaps you're equating aerodynamic "lift" with nice green bar uptrends, and the tendancy for existing trends to continue after the initial market impulse for the initial price rise has passed?

 

[Trendnomics]

So following on this TN, perhaps you're equating aerodynamic "lift" with nice green bar uptrends, and the tendancy for existing trends to continue after the initial market impulse for the initial price rise has passed?

There is some truth to this - but then price action can't be random all the time. Also, why do we observe a trend existence paradox, between different time-frames (trends are far more prevalent for longer time-frames)?

Performing some auto-correlation tests on the price action of a highly liquid equity, at various time-frames (from 1 day to 50 days), reveals some interesting random/predictable transitions:



@ 3:19 in the video "16 days......". Sixteen days as a maximum test boundary? Anyone curious to do some tests beyond? I know I have.....

 

[Newt]

Ok, that suggests a thesis, and presumably you could go further looking at other dimensions of market capitalisation, price, turnover in addition.

Will have to get my thinking cap on how to wrest data out of the Norgate database.....

 

[Trendnomics]

Ok, that suggests a thesis, and presumably you could go further looking at other dimensions of market capitalisation, price, turnover in addition.

Will have to get my thinking cap on how to wrest data out of the Norgate database.....

https://au.finance.yahoo.com/quote/BHP.AX/history/

^^^ Accurate enough and purely an Excel exercise - pick your favourite top 50 stock (BHP in link is an example).

 

[aus_trader]

Well here's one for the books

View attachment 102250

Oh NO !
"The Ducati blue bar strategy" has a buy signal today for "SGH" - Slater & Gordon (I nearly fell off my chair) with @Trendnomics words ringing in my ears "you have to become comfortable with something that can be unbearable at times, to avoid emotional tinkering"

I've turned religious
I'm praying that "SGH" doesn't make it to the end of the day as a buy signal. This signal would test my resolve as I'd be shaking in my boots investing even $1 on this dog let alone $15k. Personally I'll be following closely along as this might be the first time "The Ducati blue bar strategy" disappoints. (for the life of me, I can't see how it can't)

Skate.

Yes this is a very interesting stock to play with. It has been de-fibrillated so many times back to life, I don't know whether it's on the path of the inevitable or it'll somehow find the strength and survive and prosper.
I have talked about this stock in various ASF threads including my spec portfolio thread with regards to how an ambitious UK law firm acquisition with massive debt funding unravelled this stock from a market darling status back in the day. Ever since it's done a clever 10 to 1 split or consolidation to rocket the share price to oblivion to prevent heart failure whenever the share price got close to zero.

 

[peter2]

@Trendnomics I've plotted the current closing price vs the close 16d, 30d and 50d earlier.
Do these graphs show the statistically anomaly that you hope we might see?
I'm not sure how to describe it other than over time prices disperse further. Prices get further away from the current price with time. With stock prices there's only two directions up and down.

My mathematically edge is selling as prices fall while holding those that are going higher.

I don't think this is the statistical anomaly that you're referring to.

 

[peter2]

@aus_trader this one's for you.

 

[ducati916]

Well here's one for the books

View attachment 102250

Oh NO !
"The Ducati blue bar strategy" has a buy signal today for "SGH" - Slater & Gordon (I nearly fell off my chair) with @Trendnomics words ringing in my ears "you have to become comfortable with something that can be unbearable at times, to avoid emotional tinkering"

I've turned religious
I'm praying that "SGH" doesn't make it to the end of the day as a buy signal. This signal would test my resolve as I'd be shaking in my boots investing even $1 on this dog let alone $15k. Personally I'll be following closely along as this might be the first time "The Ducati blue bar strategy" disappoints. (for the life of me, I can't see how it can't)

Skate.

Callahan: I know what you're thinking: "Did he fire six shots or only five?" Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement, I've kinda lost track myself. But being this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world, and would blow your head clean off, you've got to ask yourself one question: 'Do I feel lucky?' Well, do you, punk?

[The thief gives up trying to retrieve his shotgun; Callahan picks it up and starts to walk away, lowering the hammer.]

Thief: Hey! [Callahan turns around] I gots to know...

[Callahan recocks and aims his revolver and pulls the trigger, but the gun just clicks on an empty chamber, and he grins, laughs, and walks away.]

Thief: Son of a bitch...

jog on
duc

 

[frugal.rock]

About SGH...
A few thoughts.
Yes, it's a dog when looking at the chart.
I can see the cause of the blue bar, however the volume is pathetic.
It's a signal, but a setup?
Maybe, if the bottom is in.
Here we go, the old bottom thing again....it may reverse and do the same sort of stupidly low volume trading going upwards..meh!?
Pink Pig's CAN fly backwards.
With a good jet pack.

The bookie's have it at 100:1
I give it 80:1 only cause them be legal eagles....

F.Rock

 

[Trendnomics]

@Trendnomics I've plotted the current closing price vs the close 16d, 30d and 50d earlier.
Do these graphs show the statistically anomaly that you hope we might see?
I'm not sure how to describe it other than over time prices disperse further. Prices get further away from the current price with time. With stock prices there's only two directions up and down.

My mathematically edge is selling as prices fall while holding those that are going higher.

I don't think this is the statistical anomaly that you're referring to.
View attachment 102254

Hey Peter. It appears you have only plotted the first quadrant of price action.

Plots to look like:


Theoretically the shorter time-frames will look like (random distribution):


Theoretically the longer time-frames will look like (predictable distribution):

But why?

 

[Skate]

BBand:I worked a lot on Zero Lag (well nearly ) code and the resulting code is both better overall than my BBand one, much more dynamic (but still weekly) and as BBand has only one entry I will replace it by my new ZLextrav2 system.

We are constantly being fooled by randomness
"Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets" is a book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb that I have mentioned once or twice before in the "Dump it here" thread. "Fooled by Randomness" was very insightful book as-well-as a good read, a real eye opener to say the least. Taleb's book deals with the fallibility of human knowledge & it was mentioned in the video posted by @Trendnomics. What a perfect segway for me to post about the "randomness" of Mechanical Trading Systems & systems trading in general.

The BBO Strategy
@qldfrog, I've traded my version of John Bollinger's Bollinger Bands (BBO) for others the acronym BBO means the "Bollinger Break Out". My trading strategy is called the "BBO Weekly Strategy" & I've traded the strategy with great success. All my systems went to (100% cash) in the last quarter of 2018. The "BBO Weekly Strategy" was one of the strategies I didn't trade in 2019 with one thing or another getting in the way.

GTFO & the DUC Indicator
I'll post up a few graphis to show the difference what a GTFO makes to trading. Using the GTFO comes with a couple of trade offs (a) accepting lower profits for (b) less downside risk. The Duc Indicator is new & it's a current struggle to get the GTFO & the DUC indicator to play nice together. Getting local & global indexes to mix is like trying to get water & oil to mix - it's a work in progress. I'll concentrate on the GTFO Indicator (my Vespa Scooter) as I'm still trying to learn to ride my Ducati - which is a better bike by the way.

The BBO Strategy
I'll post up a backtest for 2019 the year that the "BBO Weekly Strategy" wasn't traded to show "what could have been". The "BBO Strategy" isn't a bad strategy when all the "ducks align".








More to come
I'll have more to say in my next post with a few comparisons between "NO" GTFO versus "WITH" the GTFO indicator applied to the same "BBO strategy".

Skate.

 

[Skate]

2019 was a roaring market
The GTFO Indicator has not been designed to be effective in a roaring bull market as the markets will take care of themself.

Comparison Backtests
The backtests & Portfolio Equity charts displays that the GTFO Indicator has little effect when trading in favourable conditions but in the next post trading is 2020 is a different kettle of fish.








Nah..
Not much different at all.

More to follow
Lets wait till the next post to see the GTFO in action.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

The GTFO Indicator in action 2020
Till I can get "The Duc Indicator" to behave the "GTFO Indicator" is all I have to "demonstrate" the effectiveness of the indicator. The GTFO indicator has saved my bacon on a few occasions by exiting positions earlier than most other exit strategies.

Backtest results
On face value the GTFO indicator works well doing its job "but" not well enough "in my opinion". @ducati916 has given me the tools to overcome this shortcoming so I'm tasked with finding an application method that can be universally applied to all my strategies. I'm like a dog with a bone, I won't let it go until I can get "The Duc Indicator" & the "GTFO Indicator" working together. I must admit at the moment though it's a bit of a struggle.





The GTFO Indicator comes to life in March 2020
The GTFO Indicator kicked in to life in March helping to "lower" the loss - even so there was still pain attached.





The GTFO has been a band aid solution
Even with the GTFO band aid solution the loss would still have hurt - but not using the GTFO indicator would have been very unpleasant indeed.

Summary
The GTFO Indicator is a worthy tool, one that I'm proud to have in my tool box.

Skate.

 

[Newt]

Hey Peter. It appears you have only plotted the first quadrant of price action.

Plots to look like:

View attachment 102270
Theoretically the shorter time-frames will look like (random distribution):

View attachment 102272
Theoretically the longer time-frames will look like (predictable distribution):
View attachment 102271
But why?

Thanks for having a go Peter, and thanks TN for explaining further.
One explanation might be that over longer time periods, as present price increases more individuals feel they need to climb on the "gravy train", and in the reverse as price fall then more will exit. The "45% smear" on the 3rd graph suggests that this proportional effect applies in both directions, but as Peter has said our stops help contain the price drops, and hopefully let the price trends continue on.

It is less likely, but certainly impossible for present prices to be increasing and future prices decrease as new info is anticipated or becomes known.

Am I close at all??

 

[Skate]

Well here's one for the books

View attachment 102250

Oh NO !
"The Ducati blue bar strategy" has a buy signal today for "SGH" - Slater & Gordon (I nearly fell off my chair) with @Trendnomics words ringing in my ears "you have to become comfortable with something that can be unbearable at times, to avoid emotional tinkering"

I've turned religious
I'm praying that "SGH" doesn't make it to the end of the day as a buy signal. This signal would test my resolve as I'd be shaking in my boots investing even $1 on this dog let alone $15k. Personally I'll be following closely along as this might be the first time "The Ducati blue bar strategy" disappoints. (for the life of me, I can't see how it can't)

Skate.

Well here's another one for the books
"The Ducati blue bar strategy" has a buy signal today for "TER" - Terracom Limited

Summary
"TER" shares appear to be in a long-term bearish trend confirmed by multiple indicators showing demand for this stock is low which signals that investors see little opportunity in owning this stock at this time.

Time will tell
I'm now keenly watching "SGH" & "TER"

Why am I following these two with interest ?
"Because they are positions I wouldn't trust buying with your money let alone mine"

Skate.

 

[frugal.rock]

Wow. PDI Predictive.
This has been in my watchlist for a while.
Expected a gap up on open...
didn't expect 200% on open, and definitely didn't expect a high over 800% up.
Wow.

Could a, should a... didn't.
From whoa, to Go!
Watched from the sidelines, all chicken like...

Anyone holding or held/ out today?
Awesome stuff!

F.Rock

 

[qldfrog]

Hey Peter. It appears you have only plotted the first quadrant of price action.

Plots to look like:

View attachment 102270
Theoretically the shorter time-frames will look like (random distribution):

View attachment 102272
Theoretically the longer time-frames will look like (predictable distribution):
View attachment 102271
But why?

The way i see it TN:
Due to inflation and population growth, we have an overall bias on growth and increasing price on the extra long term.it is a fact known by the player so overall positive mind.

Then why we end up in a long term olive style distribution heading north east is in my opinion just the fear and greed(FOMO)
Hum this is going up today, let's get in too, self reenforcing loop until the fear hits the first investor:
hum i made a killing, better get some of this safe, let's sell or sell half..price growth slow..more fear from initial buyers less incentive of FOMO..we top
Same in reverse when price falls
None of the above actually cared of PE or economic results, it is just multiple independent thinkings and psychology creating a market behaviour, and generating trends
Virus, terrorist attacks, financial releases can obviously shock these but my understanding is that we are just observing the fear/greed at play
Our systems then try to find indicators of start /end of these trends to get in out in time
All entries are roulette plays but as opposed to Casino, we can start to bet or exit while the wheel
is turning, twisting our odds slightly
But always at risk of an earthquake collapsing the casino: GFC,war or covid-19

 

[qldfrog]

Just want to add most of Market activity is now machine created BUT these algorithms are built on past actions and mostly emulate human psychology too.

 

[frugal.rock]

Just want to add most of Market activity is now machine created BUT these algorithms are built on past actions and mostly emulate human psychology too.

So, do you think it might pay to "get with the program" ?
Have been observing algo behaviour lately.
With yesterday's volume and price action on PDI, algorithms definitely were involved. Seems like it's going to carry on today... today will see some big winners and probably bigger losers... Possibly a good short trade developing...?
Either way, am watching only.

However, FAU has been showing modest signs of improvement.
Hoping it's a stunt double of PDI...
Seems relatively unknown for the time being.
FAU thread dormant, until now.
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/fau-first-au-limited.34043/

F.Rock