Dump it Here

[Skate]

Portfolio Capital: $30,000
Positions in the Portfolio: 2
Fixed Position Sizing: $15,000

"The Ducati Dalmador Two Dogs Strategy"
It goes to prove that "The Ducati blue bar strategy" is no Chihuahua when it comes to strategies - it's more of a cute Labrador/Dalmatian mix. It's an offspring of a purebred Dalmatian and the purebred Labrador (hybrid). It's a mix of the easy-going Labrador & a feisty Dalmatian, which makes for a perfect dog & strategy. For those who are following these two dogs "SGH" & "TER" - "The Ducati Dalmador Two Dogs Strategy" gave two buy signals that rattled me. To tell you the truth I wouldn't have taken either of these two positions, not even with counterfeit money. Bugger me, the portfolio is now up $6,988 from $4,251 last week.

The Dalmador








Skate.

 

[peter2]

My tip for beginners is to avoid trading "dog" stocks. Yes, even dead dogs can bounce when dropped from a sufficient height. SGH has dropped from such a height that even a dead elephant would have bounced.

My tip is that your trading universe is an important part of your trading plan. You should run your strategy scans/explorations across companies that you'd be comfortable trading. Currently the ASX has approx 2500 listed stocks. IMO there's 1500 that shouldn't be there. I initially filter out these undesirables by volume traded. I then delete companies from my universe using a variety of reasons. Over time my trading universe reduces to about 400. I refresh this list every six months so that I include newer IPOs and very occasionally an old dog does learn new tricks. Some traders stick to the 500 stocks in the All Ords, some the ASX top 300. Create your universe.

The main reason for reducing the number of results in your scans is so that you focus on the better opportunities. Liking the setup but hating the company is not going to end well no matter what happens next. It's easier for me to delete the company from my trading universe rather than feel uneasy and noncommittal about the opportunity when it appears.

 

[Skate]

My tip for beginners is to avoid trading "dog" stocks. My tip is that your trading universe is an important part of your trading plan. You should run your strategy scans/explorations across companies that you'd be comfortable trading - filter out these undesirables by volume traded and very occasionally an old dog does learn new tricks. Some traders stick to the 500 stocks in the All Ords, some the ASX top 300. Create your universe, trading opportunity when it appears.

Reading between the lines
ASF is blessed to have so many members willing to pass on information that they have found beneficial in their trading endeavours. Those members have their own threads dropping crumbs along the way. When trading information is disseminated it's usually done in a scattergun manner where other posts have more precise details. Recently I had the privilege to gather a new understanding how others trade & their logic in doing so.

So what am I planning next
With an influx of new members "itching" to get their "foot in the door", or "dip their toes in" my next project might give them the opportunity. There are two option (a) watch along or (b) trade along. The new trading system will be explained in the next post. The positions will be disclosed before being traded with real money. Trading at first can be confusing, that's why we need a trading plan that includes a trading strategy, otherwise it's just plain gambling. Let me say, the strategy I'll be trading has exceeded my expectation so I'll be throwing caution to the wind jumping straight into the deep end.

Turning knowledge into action
There are no new idea out there but there are some discretionary ideas that can be coded & used in a mechanical trading system. As the saying goes, if what you learn leads to knowledge, you become a fool - but if what you learn leads to action, you can become wealthy. I want to practice what I preach by turning the knowledge gained from this forum & turn it into "action". "The Ducati blue bar strategy" has now been put to rest, there will be no further updates. I've combined all Duc's ideas & mashed them into a new trading system known as the "Action Strategy"

It's dangerous
I also want to remind others about the dangers of gambling when finances become tight but those who have the funds eager to ride "the bounce" my new strategy might be the ticket. Funds you are prepared to lose is the price of your ticket.

More to come...

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Let me explain the new "Action" strategy
It's a combination of discretionary ideas coded & used in a mechanical trading system. It's the natural progression from "The Ducati Blue Bar Daily Strategy", "The Ducati Stop & Go Indicator" & "The Ducati Acceleration Indicator" all respectable in their own right but with money management, new parameters & filters the idea (strategy) grows an extra leg. The make up of the new "Action Strategy" has been freely discussed whereas other information (that forms part of the strategy) has been provided to me in private.

Follow or trade along
The strategy is designed for those itching to get involved. As we will be trading in the pre-auction, all positions, even the quantity of shares & the offer price will be disclosed before the opening of Monday's markets. The reporting will be accurate as "Share Trade Tracker" new release has included "Norgate" as the new data source.

In a nutshell
The new "Action" strategy is a "Weekly" $20k portfolio with $1k bets. The entry conditions of "volatility & volume" relies on other measures to tilt the odds of success in our favour. The strategy will be buying good companies at the "right time" & selling quickly when it goes against us. The exit will be at the heart of the strategy combining a looping "stale stop" & "a variable trailing stop" driven by a "volatility measure" taken from "other sources".

I'm shouting out to a few members
I've included a few members in the list below who have made a recent comment in the "Dump it here" or "trading the bounce" thread or were kind enough to "like" one of my recent posts. I'm hoping they will check-in each Friday or over the weekend to see the "Action Strategy" updated progress. (once it starts trading)

List
@ducati916 @frugal.rock @JimmyKesh @waterbottle @rogerlg @bigdog @aus_trader @peter2 @Newt @qldfrog @Metal Teeth @bluekelah @myrtie100 @gartley @Bazzi @sptrawler @wabullfrog @jbocker @Smurf1976 @imaginate19 @RickyY @laura @fiftyeight @Value Collector @JayGee @Boggo @Rsthree @Joe90 & a few others I couldn't think of.

More to come...

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Sampler - Backtests
So the backtests aren't cherried picked I've used the 2nd May as the start & finish dates

# Backtest period - 2/5/2017 to 2/5/2018




# Backtest period - 2/5/2018 to 2/5/2019






# Backtest period - 2/5/2019 to 2/5/2020



Skate.

 

[Skate]

The Action Weekly Strategy
Start Date: ASAP, dependant on an index filter turning on
Portfolio Capital: $20,000
Positions in the Portfolio: 20
Fixed Position Sizing: $1,000 (No re-balancing)

Weekly Update Format
1. The "Share Trade Tracker" Dashboard
2. Portfolio performance line chart
3. Open Positions Summary
4. Pending buy & sell positions

For those following
I'll be posting extensively before & after the execution of any position.

Included garden variety filters
Index, Price, Turnover, Volume & Rate of Change Filters - additional parameters, & setting form part of the entry & exit conditions that a not up for discussion.

Backtest comparison table


I'm locked & loaded
The next post will be when "The Action Strategy" turns on..

Skate.

 

[Rsthree]

View attachment 103172

I'm locked & loaded
The next post will be when "The Action Strategy" turns on..

Skate.

Great initiative and much appreciated.

I've been paper trading my 20k portfolio (20 × $1k) for the last few weeks, so this could be a great opportunity to transition to a live strategy benefiting from the brains trust in the group.

 

[Skate]

Great initiative and much appreciated. I've been paper trading my 20k portfolio (20 × $1k) for the last few weeks, so this could be a great opportunity to transition to a live strategy benefiting from the brains trust in the group.

@Rsthree I've had two other confirmations so that makes 4 of us. When the system turns on I'll post every bit of information so it will be easy to follow along. We will all be taking the same positions at the same time in the pre-auction with exactly the same execution price. Others will be watching on the sidelines while we will be riding the emotional roller coaster.

This post resonated with me

Markets can be scary in times of big falls (like at the end of 2018) and crashes like this one. I missed the bulk of the recovery that started in 2019 due to staying out of the market because of the fear, having liquidated late 2018. Should've stayed glued to this thread and those of Peter2's as you guys were investing right from the start of 2019 recovery.

Important point
I wouldn't be trading this strategy if it wasn't robust but just in case "we do lose" regard it as the price of your ticket.

Welcome aboard...

Skate.

 

[Bazzi]

@Rsthree I've had two other confirmations so that makes 4 of us. When the system turns on I'll post every bit of information so it will be easy to follow along. We will all be taking the same positions at the same time in the pre-auction with exactly the same execution price. Others will be watching on the sidelines while we will be riding the emotional roller coaster.

This post resonated with me


Important point
I wouldn't be trading this strategy if it wasn't robust but just in case "we do lose" regard it as the price of your ticket.

Welcome aboard...

Skate.

@Skate count one more confirmation in follow trading!
I look forward to ride the upcoming roller coaster

 

[Skate]

@Skate count one more confirmation in follow trading!
I look forward to ride the upcoming roller coaster

@Bazzi welcome aboard, that’s 5 of us.

Skate.

 

[Saqeeb]

Count me in too please @Skate
Thanks

 

[Skate]

Count me in too please @Skate
Thanks

@Saqeeb glad to have you aboard.

Skate.

 

[ducati916]

@Rsthree I've had two other confirmations so that makes 4 of us. When the system turns on I'll post every bit of information so it will be easy to follow along. We will all be taking the same positions at the same time in the pre-auction with exactly the same execution price. Others will be watching on the sidelines while we will be riding the emotional roller coaster.

This post resonated with me


Important point
I wouldn't be trading this strategy if it wasn't robust but just in case "we do lose" regard it as the price of your ticket.

Welcome aboard...

Skate.

In no particular order:

1. This thread (experiment) will if successful, attract evermore (inexperienced) traders in search of 'easy money'. As the back tests demonstrate, this has every chance (high probability) of being successful; therefore

2. Increasing amounts of (real) cash will be seeking entry into smaller cap. stocks (probably not an issue with larger liquid stocks). Is there enough liquidity in them, both for entry and exits? You might have to limit the size of the group and inform via group email of the signals as they arise.

3. Re. following the 'rules'. Remember the 'Turtles' experiment. Simple rules, cash even provided: still only 1 or 2 out of a group of about 10 actually followed the rules. I will be really interested to watch this in real time, or weekly updates for the psychological impact. True, in the Turtle experiment none or very few had any market experience. This could be the difference.

4. Dependency. What if you (Mr Skate) get hit by a bus?

5. I think the participants need to understand that this is an opportunity to learn and develop their own twists to trading. It will provide invaluable real trading experience (even with a bit of hand-holding) but that needs to be capitalised on. They need to read the market and learn when the system is about to generate a signal: from there, they can develop their own strategies. Looking at the current list, I don't think this is an issue currently, but it could fast become one if you attract real newbies (no offence meant to the newbies).

6. This is CRITICAL

Important point
I wouldn't be trading this strategy if it wasn't robust but just in case "we do lose" regard it as the price of your ticket.

7. The current environment is (extremely) volatile. High volatility increases both opportunity and risk. Markets when they 'top' (after trending) usually give plenty of warning. Trading market bottoms and bounces do not. Even the most robust signals have a lag. That makes exits less than optimal. Less than optimal really means losses.

8. All-in-all, can't wait to see the experiment go live.

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

In no particular order:

1. This thread (experiment) will if successful, attract evermore (inexperienced) traders in search of 'easy money'. As the back tests demonstrate, this has every chance (high probability) of being successful; therefore

2. Increasing amounts of (real) cash will be seeking entry into smaller cap. stocks (probably not an issue with larger liquid stocks). Is there enough liquidity in them, both for entry and exits? You might have to limit the size of the group and inform via group email of the signals as they arise.

3. Re. following the 'rules'. Remember the 'Turtles' experiment. Simple rules, cash even provided: still only 1 or 2 out of a group of about 10 actually followed the rules. I will be really interested to watch this in real time, or weekly updates for the psychological impact. True, in the Turtle experiment none or very few had any market experience. This could be the difference.

4. Dependency. What if you (Mr Skate) get hit by a bus?

5. I think the participants need to understand that this is an opportunity to learn and develop their own twists to trading. It will provide invaluable real trading experience (even with a bit of hand-holding) but that needs to be capitalised on. They need to read the market and learn when the system is about to generate a signal: from there, they can develop their own strategies. Looking at the current list, I don't think this is an issue currently, but it could fast become one if you attract real newbies (no offence meant to the newbies).

6. This is CRITICAL

Important point
I wouldn't be trading this strategy if it wasn't robust but just in case "we do lose" regard it as the price of your ticket.

7. The current environment is (extremely) volatile. High volatility increases both opportunity and risk. Markets when they 'top' (after trending) usually give plenty of warning. Trading market bottoms and bounces do not. Even the most robust signals have a lag. That makes exits less than optimal. Less than optimal really means losses.

8. All-in-all, can't wait to see the experiment go live.

jog on
duc

@ducati916 , unless mistaken, @Skate will only tell us of his purchase/ sell after the facts, as i do on my thread.
i follow the Dump it thread religiously, mostly as a new idea initiator and role model but i doubt anyone would be tracking and buy /sell the same codes, with a delay.
Would be nice as if we were popular enough, our wishes would become true as hordes of groupies would pile in in the obscure small caps we just purchased..
Did i just reveal the secret of "market newsletters?

 

[ducati916]

@ducati916 , unless mistaken, @Skate will only tell us of his purchase/ sell after the facts, as i do on my thread.
i follow the Dump it thread religiously, mostly as a new idea initiator and role model but i doubt anyone would be tracking and buy /sell the same codes, with a delay.
Would be nice as if we were popular enough, our wishes would become true as hordes of groupies would pile in in the obscure small caps we just purchased..
Did i just reveal the secret of "market newsletters?

Actually from what Mr Skate said:

@Rsthree I've had two other confirmations so that makes 4 of us. When the system turns on I'll post every bit of information so it will be easy to follow along. We will all be taking the same positions at the same time in the pre-auction with exactly the same execution price. Others will be watching on the sidelines while we will be riding the emotional roller coaster.

I read it as they will be trading as a group: ostensibly $1000/ea. Clearly however, there is no enforcement of a $1000 position. If I was following the signal, I could place $10K if I wished. In small caps. that is going to cause issues.

I think, at some point, Mr Skate will need to issue signals by email or some-such, just so that the opportunities in small caps. are not distorted. In the larger caps. probably not an (immediate) issue.

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Actually from what Mr Skate said:

@Rsthree I've had two other confirmations so that makes 4 of us. When the system turns on I'll post every bit of information so it will be easy to follow along. We will all be taking the same positions at the same time in the pre-auction with exactly the same execution price. Others will be watching on the sidelines while we will be riding the emotional roller coaster.

I read it as they will be trading as a group: ostensibly $1000/ea. Clearly however, there is no enforcement of a $1000 position. If I was following the signal, I could place $10K if I wished. In small caps. that is going to cause issues.

I think, at some point, Mr Skate will need to issue signals by email or some-such, just so that the opportunities in small caps. are not distorted. In the larger caps. probably not an (immediate) issue.

jog on
duc

My mistake indeed.hum..
I would not do it as our modus operandi is to buy at open , putting a buy a few pc above last close.if too many people do the same, you distord at least the open price if not the day demand

 

[qldfrog]

@Skate, count me in
If you want , i could pm you what my systems actions are in exchange, or just follow my thread for post action knowledge
To be clear i do not intend to trade your results unless they actually match my systems.

 

[rogerlg]

I would personally like to give a Big Thank You to Skate he has generously given his knowledge and time to this thread which has helped me a lot and given me much more confidence, and to ducati916 and qldfrog for there support of the Skate and the thread. Thank you All !!!

 

[Rsthree]

I see this as a great opportunity to learn. I would want to analyse and understand why each trade is being placed, as other than a potential reward, blindly following a system would not help me learn.

I'm not 100% how the auction process works but if a number of people are bidding on a small cap stock then conceivably some may miss out. Moreover I believe Skate uses a limit order so that would narrow the field even more. It will be an interesting process, looking forward to it.

 

[Rsthree]

6. This is CRITICAL

Important point
I wouldn't be trading this strategy if it wasn't robust but just in case "we do lose" regard it as the price of your ticket.

7. The current environment is (extremely) volatile. High volatility increases both opportunity and risk. Markets when they 'top' (after trending) usually give plenty of warning. Trading market bottoms and bounces do not. Even the most robust signals have a lag. That makes exits less than optimal. Less than optimal really means losses.

jog on
duc

We may need to have our resident shrink on standby just in case some group counselling is required.