Unless I'm missing something I believe that the stale exit code used by @Skate addresses this problem.
I feel like a dump this morning ...about takeovers.
Note my goal as a system trader is to simulate as close to actual trading as possible. Also, I’m not a short term trader.
There are two situations for takeovers, firstly holding a stock for a period then taken over (can’t avoid). Secondly, a buysignal is triggered by a takeover bid (can avoid).
This Amibroker code is relevant for both situations in backtesting delisted stocks. Trades that have been entered yet have no sell signal and these will "probably" have an exit value at or near takeover price.
Code:NonTradedPeriod = 30; SymbolDT = DateTimeAdd(DateTime(), NonTradedPeriod, inDaily); Delisted = BarIndex() == (LastValue(BarIndex()) -1) AND DateTimeDiff(Now(5), SymbolDT) >= 0; Sell = Sell or Delisted;
Better still, if you use Norgate data: https://norgatedata.com/amibroker-faq.php#exitpriortodelisting
If you don't use this for backtesting, you could be left with a bunch of stocks blocking buysignals. These stocks will withhold your capital and effect backtest results.
In real time trading, would you have exited on the announcement of a takeover, waited until the takeover is completed or accept a new ASX code?
I sell before a takeover is completed but should you choose to accept your mission of a new ASX code, what happens to exits? There would be no exitsignal for your new ASX code when running an Amibroker exploration as there would be no buysignal. Perhaps it's possible to manually add a trade but you could save the ASX code to favourites in Amibroker and check stops. Depending how complex exits are, this could be tricky. i.e. if your exit uses the buyprice or has some timed stop from the entry signal.
For the second situation where a takeover triggers a buysignal you could use one of the above choices (except “exited on the announcement”) but using the Amibroker code above simulates not buying, except if in real time the stock doesn’t end up being taken over!
Mr Monte Carlo is helpful guy
So do you get in hoping for future higher bidder , or run away
Unless I'm missing something I believe that the stale exit code used by @Skate addresses this problem.
SirB, I think you must have mis-spelt the stock code, you must be talking about "EPW".Damn!
Scan this week and top of the list is EPM with a big spike and a takeover announcement.
Fridays close $2.45.
"ERM's founder and top shareholder, Trevor St Baker, who speaks for 27 per cent of the company's shares, said in a statement he would accept the offer of $2.465 a share if no higher bid emerges".
My cash account sits at $50k but I am being cautious and using only $10k of it. I started trading with $30k but due to my stupidity removing a stop loss on an APT trade I lost $3k and am now treading lightly. Hence why I'm asking if this is how you all trade or if I should bump up my risk or trade with more money and half my stop loss amount. I know, catch - 22
Since it's on the way up I want to buy into gold, but not sure which ETF or Stock I should consider.
I've been testing & coding @peter2 1st Blue Bar (SuperTrend Strategy) that has been discussed in his thread. I'm now a believer - his strategy performs well. Peter is onto something here & his posts on the topic are pure gold
SirB, I think you must have mis-spelt the stock code, you must be talking about "EPW".
Backtesting with in-sample and out-of-samples data
Your right, I mixed up the code with their name
EPW - ERM Power Limited
Skate, do you or have you thought about re-testing your system after trading it for some time. An example could be: if real trading for a couple of years, backtest say 5 years plus one year actual trading with one year out-of-sample and compare? I was out of the market a lot of last year and average trade can be 6 months so very few stats. Any thoughts about this? I've read people like to retest every year but I'd say it depends on your average trade length.
Yeah not sure, I'm just dumping it here. Haven't read the whole thread and about the stale exit.
This may be one post to read
Especially after today. You know when a company puts an announcement's headline in all caps it's serious business. Looks like things are finally paying off for STX shareholders. Well done to those that hold! STX up another 55.2% to 22.5c today.
Skate, how does it prove it when some stocks have a strong bar with no follow through?Hi @greggles & @barney
I've hijacked your post from the "stx-strike-energy" thread that I can use for an educational post in the 'Dump it here' thread about market knowledge.
Disclaimer
As I'm on the ride of ASX:STX, in at $0.135 & it's a perfect segue to explain "when you know - it's too late"
The market is not a level playing field
The stock market is not a level playing field, but most individuals trade as if it is. They assume they have the same information as everyone else, so they focus on the facts that are readily available to them & ignore how a stock is actually moving.
Someone out there always knows more than you do
We don’t consider that maybe someone out there knows a lot more than they do & perhaps that might account for why a stock is moving the way it is. We have all seen a situation in which a stock suddenly starts making big moves up or down such as [STX] & then a short time later significant news is released that explains why that move took place.
I want to alert others
Someone out there always knows more than you do, and you shouldn’t assume otherwise.
Valuable information
It is just plain foolish to think that trading is a level playing field when it comes to receiving valuable information & rather than complain about that fact, we must use it to our advantage by paying close attention to those who do have inside information. There is absolutely no way a small individual trader like us has superior knowledge about a company but the good news is that small traders don’t need an informational edge. They make up for it by moving fast and being reactive to breakouts the very essence of a trend trader.
Someone knew
Look at my weekly chart, someone knew something well in advance of the news being released, I'm so lucky my strategy snagged the breakout - in @ $0.135.
Standard Chart [STX]
View attachment 97088
Expanded view of the same chart [STX]
View attachment 97089
Skate.
Skate, how does it prove it when some stocks have a strong bar with no follow through?
Then wouldn't that be an exhaustion bar , were someone knows it's going to go the other way?Skate, how does it prove it when some stocks have a strong bar with no follow through?
I suspect that finding a niche or strategy and learning it, practising it, reflecting on it and sticking to it, maybe more important than which one you choose. . .
Worth reposting in this thread as it's exactly correct. New traders and investors generally abandon winning strategies too early.
Reading another thread I was thinking how important the journey is and not wanting to clog up that thread I thought I might dump here if thats O.K. Then I see your post Peter and I think how important staying the course is and so, face one of my unresolved conflicts.Worth reposting in this thread as it's exactly correct. New traders and investors generally abandon winning strategies too early.
Reading another thread I was thinking how important the journey is and not wanting to clog up that thread I thought I might dump here if thats O.K. Then I see your post Peter and I think how important staying the course is and so, face one of my unresolved conflicts. I feel better for dumping - thanks.
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