Dump it Here

[willoneau]

Read the article thanx for the refresher.
Now my original question was have you back tested an entry other than the open of the weekly bar?
and if so what results did you find. From your post I gather that you did and found it to be of a disadvantage to your style or your system?
the two that came to my mind was break above the signal bar and a close higher than the open of the entry bar. Both should be able to be coded and thus not discretionary.

 

[Skate]

Read the article thanx for the refresher.
Now my original question was have you back tested an entry other than the open of the weekly bar? and if so what results did you find. From your post I gather that you did and found it to be of a disadvantage to your style or your system? the two that came to my mind was break above the signal bar and a close higher than the open of the entry bar.

1. have you back tested an entry other than the open of the weekly bar?
Yes

2. if so what results did you find.
Liquidity is highest at the open. Amibroker backtests defaults using trade delays takes the opening price & trading in the pre-auction mimic this. (I trade in the pre-auction)

3. I gather that you did and found it to be of a disadvantage to your style or your system?
Both

4. The two that came to my mind was break above the signal bar and a close higher than the open of the entry bar.

Then wouldn't that be an exhaustion bar

The ‘Dump it here’ is an educational thread & it appears you have an understanding of a subject others may find interesting - so it might be the perfect time for you to make a post on the subject.

Skate.

 

[peter2]

More rambling thoughts from a short term trader that might be relevant to those who want to trade short term. It started with a post from @barney about the company SPT. I looked at the chart and noticed the huge bullish bar five days ago that was also a 1st BB on my charts. Yes, I'd seen this 1stBB but ignored it as it didn't comply with my 1stBB checklist. I dismissed it in seconds because it didn't fit with the strategy that I was using when I was looking through the 1stBB scan results.



Another person with a different strategy may have thought there was a great opportunity for a short term trade in SPT after seeing the huge bullish bar (30/8/19). This person may use a strategy that looks for obvious insto buying and anticipates that there may be some follow through immediately or in the next few days. The huge volume bullish bar would have come up in their scan results and they would have a few tactics to get into this trade opportunity.

One of my core beliefs as a short term trader is that there are an unlimited number of opportunities every day. My job is to find them and trade them using a plan. Some people like prospecting for gold, some look for truffles and some look for the next big wave. I like looking for the next trade.

I know there are lots of us out there looking for the next trade. Well, you're not going to find it without having a specific strategy in mind. It's almost impossible to look through the charts with multiple strategies in your head. Do I trade this break-out or this pull-back or this 1st BB or this huge gap up? We've got to clear the mechanism. (Know which movie this came from?)

This is another reminder to specialise. Master one strategy at a time. I started with break-outs of Darvas boxes. If you want to learn how trade huge volume days please ask because ASF has these specialists available.

 

[peter2]

If you really want to be a trader then be prepared to work for it. ASF has people willing to help but they're sick of all the time wasting wannabe traders. We discuss a strategy that they're keen to develop then we never hear from them again.

 

[Skate]

More rambling thoughts from a short term trader that might be relevant to those who want to trade short term. One of my core beliefs as a short term trader is that there are an unlimited number of opportunities every day. My job is to find them and trade them using a plan. Some people like prospecting for gold, some look for truffles and some look for the next big wave. I like looking for the next trade. I know there are lots of us out there looking for the next trade. Well, you're not going to find it without having a specific strategy in mind.

@peter2 your post couldn't have come at a better time as I've been struggling to code a daily strategy for many years (just over 3 years to be more precise), & it has taken a lot of effort & persistence.

My Daily Strategy is now into the 'paper trading' phase. I'm not going to clog up the 'Dump it thread' with another strategy but it would be educational if a successful systematic daily trader would post & discuss the process involved.

"The Daily Strategy"
Starting Capital: $300,000
20 Position Portfolio
Position sizing: $15,000
Start Date: 30th August 2019

10 positions filled, 10 to go..



Thank you Peter for making 2 more quality posts in the 'Dump it here' thread.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[ducati916]

We've got to clear the mechanism. (Know which movie this came from?)

Kevin Costner: 'For the Love of the Game'

jog on
duc

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Imaginings of a TF system here, but nothing to remotely tradable. By the time I get something worked out we will be in the midst of the 2020 bear market.

 

[Skate]

Lifted from “p2-asx-weekly-portfolio” thread.

I've decided to make a post about "Portfolio position sizing", a current discussion in the “p2-asx-weekly-portfolio” thread.

Hi Peter, This an important (and fascinating) area. Any new information, or facts contradictory to our established way of thinking should be reconsidered. I'm not as yet convinced 30 or more positions is optimal for how you trade. There is no doubt the ASX40 portfolio is delivering consistent and well above average returns.

Re number of positions, the commentary and careful observations are appreciated. I'm glad that 30+ positions works so well for both yourself and Skate, and also pleasantly surprised at the rate of portfolio growth. It may be that there are also psychological benefits in missing less winners and possibly keeping week to week variability down. As always, everyone must validate and review their own strategy. Personally however I can't justify straying above 15-20 positions.

What a great post
@Newt posted an "alternative view" about 'optimal portfolio position sizing' in the “p2-asx-weekly-portfolio” thread relating to his own experience & research. Newt has put forth a compelling argument even posting an optimisation chart that corresponds to his views that differs from the actual results trading a 40 position portfolio. It's refreshing how Newt explained an alternative point of view in a respectful manner that others could understand.

My views
All the posts I've made are written to pass on my experience I’ve gained over the years explaining that there is an alternative point of view or a different way of thinking about issues that may be beneficial to others, a little contrary to the accepted norm.

Psychological and behavioural reasons
As @peter2 eluded to in the “p2-asx-weekly-portfolio” thread - there are obvious “psychological and behavioural” reasons why a 30-stock portfolio is preferable to a 10-stock portfolio. There are fantastic risk/reward opportunities that you are willing to do at 3 per cent of your portfolio that you might be unwilling to do at 10 per cent. Historically it’s only a handful of stock that accounts for the bulk of market returns & having a 40 position portfolio gives you a fighting chance to find those handful of stocks that eliminates the risk of serious under performance.

Large enough to be meaningful
A 40 position portfolio has a meaningful allocation or otherwise you risk missing out on significant market opportunities. Your portfolio has to large enough to have a meaningful position size in each. I’m not after sector performance but rather I'm after the top 40 stocks that make up the All ordinaries. Also trading a large account position sizing is critical for slippage. (Reference: "Slippage" refers to the difference between the expected price of a trade and the price at which the trade is executed)

Under performance
My research is contrary to @Newt's findings in-as-much that a portfolio with a smaller position sizing in their portfolio 'under perform' whereas a 30-50 stocks in a portfolio for me is the “sweet spot” & that is what I aim for. In saying this there is no ideal number of stocks you should own, that is for your research & the strategy being traded.

There are factors you should consider
‘First’, how actively do you want to manage your portfolio?
‘Second’, you should decide how much risk you are willing to take &
‘Third’, this goes along with your risk to some extent, but you should consider if you are looking to be serious in this game as the quantity of positions in your portfolio can be a game changer.

It doesn't matter
The maximum number really doesn't matter.

If you're trading long-term
Buy when "you have all your ducks in a row" & sell when the stock goes 'stale' (stagnates) or after the position has reached its peak, crested & on the way down, it's not rocket science.

Skate.

 

[Newt]

Must admit Skate, I would be more inclined to traded an increased number of positions if not working F/T. Please do keep doing as you do. I'm more concerned with understanding the process and reasoning behind your decisions than backseat-driving what is appropriate for yourself, Peter or anyone else.

On another note, I've been listening to another pocast series lately ("Trading Story Podcast"), and wanted to share this one:

https://www.tradingstory.com/podcast/41-bruce-bower-on-peak-performance-trading/

There are some excellent references to the importance of a "process mindset" versus "individual trade mindset". There are examples on how focusing in this way is productive for athletes as well as traders, as well providing psychological buffer in hard times.

I'm personally grateful for some pokes and prods you gave me Skate many months ago. In hindsight alsmost certainly would have missed a large part of the ASX rally earlier this year by toying about with entry dates and smaller during the bull market, then probably over-trading when slower or downward times come. I'm shocked how obvious it is now that I was hobbling what is (hopefully) a reasonably good systematic trading strategy. And I always thought I was perfect.....

 

[Gringotts Bank]

I've gone off coffee and have been searching for a replacement. This is an old-skool Aztec brew.

Recipe: boiling water, handful of cloves, vanilla bean, raw cacao (100% chocolate) and chilli powder.

Only had one cup so far. Will forward test over the course of this week, as tolerated.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Note to self: don't use Ghost Pepper chilli.

 

[aus_trader]

Note to self: don't use Ghost Pepper chilli.

OMG ! Anything hotter than Sweet Paprika powder is out of bounds in my place. Just a note, I've tried Chai Tea with spices in it and do like the flavour, but I don't like the commercial stuff as they tend to have too much sugar. I like to buy the Chai Tea ingredients and make the tea and put just the amount of sugar to my taste.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

OMG ! Anything hotter than Sweet Paprika powder is out of bounds in my place. Just a note, I've tried Chai Tea with spices in it and do like the flavour, but I don't like the commercial stuff as they tend to have too much sugar. I like to buy the Chai Tea ingredients and make the tea and put just the amount of sugar to my taste.

I was kidding about the Ghost pepper. I just use standard ones. My concoction isn't very nice to drink but the cloves give it some sweetness. Plenty of studies on chilli and cocoa, but who knows what to believe. Chilli does cross the blood brain barrier, so it would at least make sense that it could improve brain perfusion/oxygenation. PEA in cocoa seems to be a bit of a mood booster. I made money today so that's ironclad proof it works. Google 'Bro science'.

 

[aus_trader]

I was kidding about the Ghost pepper. I just use standard ones. My concoction isn't very nice to drink but the cloves give it some sweetness. Plenty of studies on chilli and cocoa, but who knows what to believe. Chilli does cross the blood brain barrier, so it would at least make sense that it could improve brain perfusion/oxygenation. PEA in cocoa seems to be a bit of a mood booster. I made money today so that's ironclad proof it works. Google 'Bro science'.

Sounds good GB.

I don't use chilli, but use a few aromatic spices such as cinnamon, cloves, cardamom and ginger in my chai brewing. May even use a tiny bit of star anise, but not too much as this makes it too strong with an aniseed taste. I put all the ingredients in a muslin bag and let it infuse into the boiling tea pot. The good thing about bagging the ingredients is, I can use it a few times at least before it no longer infuses the spice aromas into the tea. Can't claim any super powers when I drink it, but I enjoy it.

 

[Skate]

I've been thinking..
I've had a few messages asking for trading help & trading advice but most questions revolve around the amount of funds they have set aside for trading - varying from $2,000 to $80,000. The most recent question was - "I have $40,000 is that enough to get started?"

Lets live trade "The BOX Strategy"
I was thinking this might be a good exercise for the 'Dump it here' thread to live trading a $40,000 portfolio & report weekly of its progress giving others an insight if trading a portfolio of this size would be profitable & viable .

The BOX Strategy
I have a spare strategy. "The BOX Strategy" has already been paper traded on this thread with pleasing results. The last thing I want to do is clog up the ‘Dump it here’ thread with reporting another live trading strategy but if enough members are interested I'll go ahead & trade this strategy & report weekly on its progress.

$40,000 will get you trading
$40,000 is enough money to get started. Many people never start trading because they’re worried about losing but this shouldn't hold anyone back as you can learn as you go by trading small positions. The very act of getting started is much more important than getting it right. Trading isn’t about getting rich, but more about one day having the financial independence of being able to support yourself without an income.

Mission Statement
Aim to make an average of 25% per year trading a small account.


Does anyone want to see the weekly trading progress of "The BOX Strategy" ? - if yes - hit the "LIKE" button & if there is enough interest I'll post the progress each week.

This is the proposed strategy



The BOX Strategy
Weekly Strategy (Start Date: On or after 16th September 2019)
$40,000 Capital
20 Position Portfolio
$2,000 Fixed Positions (re-balanced weekly)

Don't forget to let me know by hitting the 'Like' button, if there is enough "likes" I'll post the weekly progress..

Skate.

 

[sptrawler]

I've been thinking..
I've had a few messages asking for trading help & trading advice but most questions revolve around the amount of funds they have set aside for trading - varying from $2,000 to $80,000. The most recent question was - "I have $40,000 is that enough to get started?"

Lets live trade "The BOX Strategy"
I was thinking this might be a good exercise for the 'Dump it here' thread to live trading a $40,000 portfolio & report weekly of its progress giving others an insight if trading a portfolio of this size would be profitable & viable .

The BOX Strategy
I have a spare strategy. "The BOX Strategy" has already been paper traded on this thread with pleasing results. The last thing I want to do is clog up the ‘Dump it here’ thread with reporting another live trading strategy but if enough members are interested I'll go ahead & trade this strategy & report weekly on its progress.

$40,000 will get you trading
$40,000 is enough money to get started. Many people never start trading because they’re worried about losing but this shouldn't hold anyone back as you can learn as you go by trading small positions. The very act of getting started is much more important than getting it right. Trading isn’t about getting rich, but more about one day having the financial independence of being able to support yourself without an income.

Mission Statement
Aim to make an average of 25% per year trading a small account.

View attachment 97356
If you would like to see the weekly trading progress of "The BOX Strategy" - hit the "LIKE" button & if there is enough interest I'll post the progress each week.

This is the proposed strategy

View attachment 97357

The BOX Strategy
Weekly Strategy (Start Date: On or after 16th September 2019)
$40,000 Capital
20 Position Portfolio
$2,000 Fixed Positions (re-balanced weekly)

Don't forget to let me know by hitting the 'Like' button, if there is enough "likes" I'll post the weekly progress..

Skate.

That sounds great Skate, what do you think of starting a new thread in the Tading Strategies/Systems, dedicated to it so that you can start at the very beginning i.e setting it up and then following it through?
It would be a great learning tool and easy to follow if it concentrates on one strategy and its development.
Just my thoughts, its your baby and your dump it here thread proves you credentials.

 

[Skate]

That sounds great Skate, what do you think of starting a new thread in the Tading Strategies/Systems, dedicated to it so that you can start at the very beginning i.e setting it up and then following it through?
It would be a great learning tool and easy to follow if it concentrates on one strategy and its development.
Just my thoughts, its your baby and your dump it here thread proves you credentials.

I see where you are coming from Joe, one thing that I think would increase the number of posts and also streamline the search function for new and old members, would be if the members broke their threads down to sensible sized threads.
For example Skates "Dump it here" thread, it is obviously highly regarded and accessed by a lot of people, but it is cumbersome. If the thread was broken down to 'obvious' threads i.e down to its components, where each thread reflects a different knowledge base, for example: MACD, Momentum, Price Rate of Change, Relative strength, Oscillators, Volume by price, etc it would probably make ten threads.

Hi @sptrawler that's a great idea "but" I started the 'Dump it here' thread to be educational & my preference is to keep all my posts in the one thread. I'll even high-jack a post in another thread, making my comments in the 'Dump it here' thread for others to read.

Skate.

 

[sptrawler]

Hi @sptrawler that's a great idea "but" I started the 'Dump it here' thread to be educational & my preference is to keep all my posts in the one thread. I'll even high-jack a post in another thread, making my comments in the 'Dump it here' thread for others to read.

Skate.

That sounds fine Skate, just an idea, the Dump it here thread is great.
It was just a thought to start educational threads, focusing on different methods, but it was only a thought.
It is your baby, hope I didn't step on your toes.

 

[aus_trader]

Hi Skate,
That sounds great.

Are you going to only show weekly performance ? I find without knowing the actual stocks traded I am a little lost when it comes to how the strategy is picking the trades i.e it's effectiveness and relevance to me. Even if the stock codes are revealed after the trades are closed, I would find that more interesting than just looking at the performance results only.

Just my thoughts.