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I do hope people don't miss this . Very sobering , indeed .

If it can happen to someone like Nick Radge , with all those resources at his finger tips , what chance is there for the rest of us ?

Is what I'm doing really the "educated guesswork " I like to kid myself with or is it just straight up .....gambling ?
 

Riding the Waves and Fluctuations of the Market
@dyna, it’s so true. We often question whether our trading is more than just guesswork or if it’s simply another form of gambling.

Contentious Point to Ponder
Ask any trader who has navigated a bearish market, and they’ll confirm they’ve experienced larger-than-expected drawdowns. In the long run, we all ride the market waves, and sometimes we get dumped through no fault of our own.

Skill vs. Luck
Trading, like betting on races, involves a mix of skill and luck. Sometimes, outcomes are purely random.

It’s a Numbers Game
Trading requires recognising low-risk, high-profit trades, to outperform the Index being traded. This is achievable with a solid trading strategy and trading plan.

Skate.
 
well it might well be gambling but resisting the urge to become excessively greedy , is a skill

balance greed and caution ( and applying them in a timely manner ) is the key to some success

anything more takes hard work and heavy thinking
 
dyna said:
If it can happen to someone like Nick Radge , with all those resources at his finger tips , what chance is there for the rest of us ?
Click to expand...

I think most aren't understanding why he posts absolute dollar figures rather than percentages.

It's to get an emotive response from you and educate you that emotive responses have no place in systematic trading.

As a percentage he wouldn't even be down double digits on that intramonth drawdown figure.
 
It is nearly always gambling unless you see a crack in the market where win is given or absence of loss.
But as opposed to casino, you can most often..not always..cut your losses and let profit run, so a gamble with a twist and the fact that with inflation and economic expansion, you have a very long term increase..as long as population grows and no funky green agenda brings you back to the stone age
 
Captain_Chaza said:
After > than a millions posts why are you still going in circles and circles and circles and have got nowhere?
Click to expand...

@Captain_Chaza, it might feel like a million posts, but each one contributes in a small way. I understand it can seem repetitive, but the goal of this thread is to keep everyone engaged and sharing their perspectives. Even critical comments bring new angles and spark fresh conversations.

Let’s keep the dialogue going and continue learning from each other!

Skate.
 
Skate said:
While some comments are quite critical, the thread’s popularity speaks for itself. With over a million views, it’s evident that many are drawn to check out the content being posted.
Click to expand...

In response to some more critical comments
Some members may not like what I post or the format of my posts and have been critical, saying my musings have no value. But interestingly, they are often the first to read what I have to say. Go figure!

Skate.
 

This mistake highlights how even small errors in decision-making can have significant consequences, especially in critical areas like the financial markets. It underscores the importance of attention to detail and careful consideration in all aspects of investing or trading.

Trading is hard, investing “not so much”
When confronted with two choices sometimes we do the wrong thing. The amount of capital you have can influence whether you lean towards investing or trading.

More Capital
Investing is often more accessible for those with more capital, as it allows for the ability to weather market fluctuations over the long term.

Less Capital
Trading can be more appealing to those with less capital looking for quicker returns, but it requires a high level of skill, time, and emotional control due to its inherent risks.

Skate.
 
Skate said:
Trading can be more appealing to those with less capital looking for quicker returns, but it requires a high level of skill, time, and emotional control due to its inherent risks.
Click to expand...
Yeah , and I don't know how anyone with a proper job and other commitments or even hobbies and and additional interests , would be able to make a good go of it .

ETF 's may be the answer for a young person but that requires almost the same infinite patience as investing !

Mr. Skate , I'm dying of curiosity over this . Did the increasing tax bill ( as well as the pressure of handing very large sums of cash ) from your years of trading , play a major role in your decision to move most of your risk capital into the longer term stuff with its fairly reliable dividend income and useful franking credits ?
 

@dyna, paying tax was never a consideration for me. At the time, I regarded it as a badge of honour to pay my way in society. The move to investing was primarily to give my mind a break, as all my time was spent thinking of new ways to squeeze a few more dollars out of the markets.

Background Story
Around 2014/2015, I was struggling to get a term deposit south of 6%. Six percent was the magical number as I could live off the interest. When term deposits sank below 6%, I was forced to look for better returns. The only option for me was to have a go at “trading.”

Early on, it was so confusing because I knew nothing about the stock market. The stock market should be called the “Business Market,” a place where you buy and sell small parts of a business.

I’ve been a mechanical system trader since 2015, and since then, I have experienced the ups and downs of the market. However, my faith in my methodology has been consistently rewarded. My trading capital started at $600k and quickly grew to $2.4m. During that time, I also skimmed enough to buy a home on the coast and take 17 cruises, three of which were world cruises. “Lady luck” was on my side as a trader.

I started investing in March 2020 parking my trading capital during the COVID-19 years, which worked out well. In December of 2023, I made a switch to full-time investing. Even though it was a snap decision, I had been thinking about the switch for a while. I set aside $2m for the exercise, managing to invest $1,961,921, which was close enough.

With dividends and franking credits, it works out to be around $180k per year passive income without the need to sell any shares. Even though the passive income is good, I do miss trading and will most likely restart trading again in the new year as I pledged a 12-month break from trading. Time will tell.

Skate.
 
I skimmed most of the AI discussion as most seemed very uninformed. Picking stocks using ChatGPT is not AI stock picking.

If anyone is interested in ML for stock selection, at a retail level, then check Portfolio123.

"Portfolio123 AI Factors utilizes powerful machine learning algorithms to find the optimal combinations from your long list of fundamental and technical factors. Something that is not possible to do manually regardless of how much time you were to spend.
AI Factors you create can then be used to create new investing strategies or to enhance your current strategies. AI Factors also offers diversification from your current investing strategies which were probably created using your knowledge of a small set of factors."

See https://portfolio123.customerly.help/en/ai-factor/ai-factors-user-guide.

I am no expert and don't understand most of it. For anyone really interested, visit Portfolio123 as a starting point. Or you could read this paper - file:///C:/Users/garys/Downloads/Machine%20learning%20goes%20global%20-%20Cross-sectional%20return%20predictability%20in%20international%20stock%20markets.pdf

I have no real interest or ability to go down this path. Good luck.
 

The article by Chris Conway of Livewire Markets, which inspired this exercise, highlights the evolving capabilities of (AI) in stock picking. As (AI) technology continues to improve, it will be interesting to see how it compares to humans in the field of finance.

Explanation - Fundie vs AI: The best ASX "Income" stocks for the next 12 months
This is a theoretical investment exercise pitting Google's (AI) Gemini against Dr Don Hamson from Plato Investment Management in selecting five "Income" stocks for the next 12 months.

Fundie vs AI: Who is the better stock picker? (and 10 ASX stock ideas for your trouble)

AI is getting better, faster, & stronger. Will it ever be able to pick stocks like a human? We take a step towards answering that question.
www.livewiremarkets.com

Results after 33 weeks
We recognise that this is nothing more than a fun, but nonetheless important, thought experiment. Ultimately, (AI) will likely become a tool that all use to make more informed decisions, across a broad range of topics.






Skate.
 


Hi Skate, nice work with your thread despite the knockers.

At the end of the day, everyone has their way of taking some skin out of the market which as we all know is challenging.

Personally, I am a TA strategist with some backup from the fundamentals.
The game can change very quickly depending on one thing and it’s called “Sentiment”.

My way of following the money has been hugely successful over my 18 years of trading, using a mid/long term TA approach using strategies that use a wider stop, of course using trailing stops with stocks on the upward spiral. I find many TA followers pull out way to early to take profits and don’t let the winners run ….

At present we’re in a bull market which is slowly making headway despite the fundamentals of a slowing economy & global uncertainty etc etc.

I’m not a believer of following any type of histeria like A1, however I am a big believer in following sectors where the money is flowing and selecting stocks within based on TA that are momentum builders within that sector.

In saying that, I’m holding some A1 stocks that are performing well but interestingly enough they are not out performers to date in my portfolio.

Of course it depends on stock selection!

In any case, keep up the good work.

I generally sit on the sidelines here but am a keen observer of how others perceive things within the market, good or bad, better or for worse.

One resource I’d advise all followers who are interested/connected to market conditions —> is to follow the 18.6 year property cycle which has been so accurate over a very long period of time. For me, it has been a godsend!

The below link is worth following, it has changed the way I trade and has made me think about things very differently …

Why 18.6 years 18 point 6 – Phil J Anderson | Property Share Market Economics

Hover over clock numbers for cycle details… Why 18.6 years? For over 25 years Phil Anderson has studied economics and markets. And he can say categorically that the Western economies exhibit an 18.6 year real estate cycle.
realestate.propertysharemarketeconomics.com
 
Rosscoe62 said:
At the end of the day, everyone has their way of taking some skin out of the market which as we all know is challenging.
Click to expand...

@Rosscoe62, thank you for your kind words and for sharing your insights. It’s always great to hear from experienced traders like yourself who have found success with their strategies.

I completely agree that sentiment plays a crucial role in market movements. Your approach of following the money and letting the winners run is indeed challenging but rewarding. It reminds me of Bill Williams, a well-known trader and author, who emphasises understanding market psychology and aligning trades with prevailing trends. By “wanting what the market wants,” you’re effectively following the market’s direction rather than fighting against it.

Thanks again for sharing your thoughts.

Skate.
 
I meant to share that we are currently in the ‘Winners Curse’ period of the 18.6 year cycle, the last 18 months - two years from now of the cycle before the bust!

Things will only get more bullish going forward but volatility is going to be highly more frequent. We’ve seen this already over the last month or so ….

Shortly the taxi drivers and people on the streets et al will be talking stocks like there is no tomorrow! The money will be pouring in, everyone thinking ‘how good is this’ …

It’s a matter of holding onto your seatbelts and riding it through. There are some unbelievable gains to made in certain sectors.

I’d be very careful of developments in the 18.6 year property cycle come late 2025 leading into 2026. Timing of course maybe within a 6 month period to a year or so from this point, give or take ….

This cycle is uncanny, it has predicted the cycles over the last 200+ years.

The astute will make good money but timing is imperative with getting out at the right time and going cash when the time is upon us. The non-believers might say what the hell are you talking about ….

Just remember the 2007-8 GFC crash …. going on 16 years ago now and fast approaching the conclusion of this current 18.6 cycle.
 
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