This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

Dump it Here

Jump to new

@Captain_Chaza, I only use the opening prices for my chart analysis on both the buy and sell side as I trade exclusively in the pre-auction. Regarding TradingView charting software, while it’s true that paid services often offer more features, free software can still be a useful tool for many traders, especially those just starting out or with limited resources.

Skate.
 
Richard Dale said:
lack of attention to detail is a big issue.
Click to expand...

After much thoughtful consideration, I have decided to discontinue the following weekly post series:

1. My Real-Life Investment Strategy (Friday Weekly Post)
2. AI Vs Humans (Saturday Weekly Posts)
2. Skate's ASX20 Investment Strategy (Sunday Weekly Post)

This decision was not easy, as I have always been dedicated to providing educational and informative content. However, after reflecting on the feedback from @Richard Dale, I've concluded that these particular uploads no longer serve a meaningful purpose.

Skate.
 
Keep at least one of them going, it's gives people like myself inspiration to keep on seeking further knowledge and makes talking points where people can share knowledge. I've learned a lot from your posts during my short time here.
 
@TimeISmoney, after reflecting on the feedback from @Richard Dale, I've concluded that those previous uploads no longer serve a meaningful purpose. However, I can let you know that I have added Rio Tinto (RIO) to my investment portfolio.

Update to my real-life investment strategy
Today, I have made a strategic investment in Rio Tinto (RIO) to enhance the diversification of my portfolio. RIO complements my existing positions in BHP and FMG, providing exposure to the resource sector that aligns with my long-term investment philosophy.

Given Rio Tinto's strategic positioning in key commodities, such as supporting China's infrastructure development and the global transition to renewable energy, I believe it presents compelling opportunities for capital appreciation, even though the mining industry can be cyclical.

By adding RIO to my holdings, I aim to capitalise on its strong fundamentals and strategic positioning within the evolving resource landscape. This acquisition is a calculated decision to diversify my investments further and position my portfolio for long-term growth.

My real investment portfolio now holds ANZ, BHP, CBA, FMG, RIO, and WDS.



Skate.
 
I had a peculiar interest in the ai vs expert tracking.
If not too hard, could you keep that one live, maybe without your own system?
The key knowledge I got so far was more expert results vs ai vs xnt/xjoa indexes
I noticed how AI was so much better short term and then lost its edge
Keeping tracking that one would be agnostic , keep privacy yet be useful for many interested party.
I assume there that you will keep that tracking at least for your own benefit privately ?
And many thanks for your time, happy to see you taking Rio in, less than you are still giving your hard earn money to the bhp mob.
Have all a great week end
 
qldfrog said:
I had a peculiar interest in the ai vs expert tracking. If not too hard, could you keep that one live,
Click to expand...

@qldfrog, the evolving relationship between AI and humans is complex and rapidly evolving. As AI systems become more advanced and capable, the lines between human and machine intelligence are becoming increasingly blurred. I'd be happy to assist you with this request.

Saturday Weekly Posts
AI vs Humans Weekly results will be posted each week.

Skate.
 
qldfrog said:
happy to see you taking Rio
Click to expand...

@qldfrog, after taking an initial position in Rio Tinto (RIO) today, I plan to make an additional top-up investment in the near future. The portfolio tracking system I use automatically recalculates the values and allocations whenever there are price updates for the holdings.

As of the end of trade today


Skate.
 
Much appreciated and your time much valued
 
Does this mean you are Buying on Monday's Open?
 
farmerge said:
Unfortunately, Professor, as a lot of us are scuttled from the Good Ship Lollypop, we have no idea what these conversations are about.
Click to expand...

@farmerge, I make it a habit to quote the original post when responding, as it helps provide context. I always respond to comments directed at me, whether they are complimentary or not. Responding to every comment allows me to expand on and explain the reasoning and thoughts behind my original post.

Previously, I had posted an investment strategy of buying the ASX20 as an easy entry with low stress for those new to the markets. The Captain then made the point that the "Buy the ASX20" strategy should have been a "Buy the ASX19" strategy, dropping Telstra (TLS) from the list, and provided a compelling chart to support this suggestion. I then uploaded my own charts to demonstrate that even companies currently out of favour can still be traded profitably.

One question about my charts asked whether I buy at the close. I responded that when trading, I buy in the pre-auction to secure the opening price.

Yesterday, I took a small initial position in Rio Tinto (RIO) to add to my real investment portfolio, and I plan to make an additional top-up. The Captain then asked if this meant I was buying on Mondays open. My response was that I plan to make an additional top-up investment in the near future.

As a side note, I have a position size formula that I use for trading, and a separate one for investing. For trading, I need to calculate an offer price to secure the opening price, as the exact opening price is unknown when I place my order. For investing, my orders are placed during the auction, so I know the price, and my position sizing is calculated to ensure my entire funds buy the maximum number of shares, leaving only cents behind. This formula requires multiple inputs to ensure a precise process.

To follow the conversation

Skate.
 


Disclaimer - This is a theoretical investment exercise
In this exercise, we put "Google (AI) Gemini" head-to-head with seasoned fund manager Dr. Don Hamson from Plato Investment Management. Both were tasked with providing their "top five growth and income stocks" for the next 12 months on the ASX.

First Place $29
# Dr. Don Hamson (Expert) - BLUE line on the equity chart (3 winning positions)

Second Place (-$1,516)
# Google Gemini (AI) - RED line on the equity chart (3 winning position)







Skate.
 
Skate, I'm not sure if you've raised this before but is your ASX20 Strategy going to go any better than buying the iShares ETF - ILC? The difference is the weighting. I wonder how much of a difference that makes?
 
qldfrog said:
I assume there that you will keep that tracking at least for your own benefit privately ?
Click to expand...

@qldfrog, you make a fair point.

I planned to keep my "Real-Life Investment Strategy," "AI vs Human," and "Skate's ASX20 Investment Strategy" all updated, as I found them all to be of interest. Posting the "Real-Life Investment Strategy" was more of an indulgence, while the other two held more personal value for me.

In particular, with "Skate's ASX20 Investment Strategy," I failed to properly account for the changes in the index composition since July 1, 2023. That was an oversight on my part.

While my initial approach may have been overly simplistic, I believe there is still value in demonstrating a straightforward strategy for those new to the markets. However, I agree that a more nuanced approach could provide a better learning experience for all involved.

The main goal of this experiment was not just about the returns, but to follow along the progress of the current ASX20 index. There are some, like myself, who are interested in how the current index constituents are performing at the moment. I currently hold positions in ANZ, BHP, CBA, FMG, RIO, and WDS, and I'm always on the lookout to add suitable candidates to my portfolio that fulfill my listed investment requirements.

Skate.
 
Sean K said:
Skate, I'm not sure if you've raised this before but is your ASX20 Strategy going to go any better than buying the iShares ETF - ILC? The difference is the weighting. I wonder how much of a difference that makes?
Click to expand...

@Sean K, that is a very valid point you raise. While the weighting differences are one aspect, there were several other important considerations I was trying to illustrate.

New members to our community join because they want information about trading as well as investing. My recent series of posts was to demonstrate how they can participate in the markets and trade without risking significant losses. To achieve this, my forum content can be broadly divided into three main areas: (a) educating members on the inherent dangers of being involved in the markets, (b) providing guidance on how to trade breakouts, which is my primary trading approach, and more recently, (c) discussing the merits of investing.

The "ASX20 Investment Strategy" was intended as an entry point into the markets and a stepping stone towards trading. The idea was for new members to gain experience with what the markets can offer, as well as the inherent stresses of market participation. I started with discussing LICs and posted about that journey. It took me three years of intense, 12-hour days to learn how to trade profitably. Investing in LICs initially felt like I wasn't in full control, but it served an important purpose in my development.

Trading has been extremely rewarding for me, and I consider myself "lucky" to have stumbled upon a helpful forum member who answered my questions and pointed me in the right direction. In the early days, I wanted results immediately, but being forced to seek the knowledge myself ultimately turned out to be for the best, even though I didn't realise it at the time. We all tend to want someone else to do the hard work for us, as the alternative requires personal effort.

Regarding the weighting differences, I'm not sure if that is a critical factor. Being equally dollar-weighted means you don't need to do any additional work or pick individual winners, as you simply buy the entire field of large-cap stocks. There will be some companies that perform well and others that struggle, not just in terms of returns but also due to market sentiment. My initial idea was to buy the ASX20 index, as these are the heavyweights of the market, with CEOs being paid to look after shareholder interests, which is ultimately what investors seek.

Buying a personal investment portfolio like the ASX20 gives you the thrill of being directly involved and the ability to steer the decisions in your own best interest. I also suggested rebalancing the portfolio once a year to simplify the process, and noted that changes in the index constituents are not a significant issue.

Buying the ASX20 was proposed as a safe way to enter the markets, and my series of posts were oriented in that direction. Even though I have now decided to focus more on investing rather than trading, I still believe trading is the path to potentially generate larger gains, as it allows you to skim profits from the markets. Investing is a good starting point, but ultimately, the goal is to learn how to trade without blowing up your capital.

Skate.
 
@Sean K, to follow up, I wish to add to my previous post.

The "ASX20 Investment Exercise" is a purely hypothetical measure of the performance of Australia's "current" top 20 listed companies as of the 1st May 2024. The results focus on capital gains and dividends for the current financial year, with additional information on market capitalisation, dividend yield, and franking credit percentages.

The objective of this exercise was to explore a simple hypothetical scenario of investing $5,000 in each of the "currently listed" companies in the ASX20 index, with the start date backdated to the 1st of July 2023. Using the index's constituents as of the 1st May 2024, the aim is to determine the year-to-date returns, including both capital gains and dividends, of this $100,000 investment.

The ASX20 (XTL) index comprises the top 20 stocks by float-adjusted market capitalisation. Typically, the index undergoes quarterly rebalancing to account for changes in the market caps of the constituents. However, for this hypothetical exercise, I suggested the rebalancing should be performed annually, on the anniversary of the start date, to simplify the process. Meaning, that investing in the ASX20 can commence at any time, as the timing is irrelevant.

I acknowledge that my initial exercise failed to properly account for the changes in the index composition since July 1, 2023, which introduced survivorship bias in the analysis. Moving forward, the main goal of this experiment is not just about the returns, but about demonstrating how newcomers can engage in the markets with minimal stress.

The weekly progress is important to me and I'm still updating the weekly results. Knowing the companies in the report are the "current constituents" does it make much difference to this exercise? If others want to follow along, I'm happy to post the progress on Sunday mornings. Just let me know, if there is one that is interested in following along, consider it done.

Skate.
 
Sean K said:
Skate, I'm not sure if you've raised this before but is your ASX20 Strategy going to go any better than buying the iShares ETF - ILC? The difference is the weighting. I wonder how much of a difference that makes?
Click to expand...
yes i was wondering that as well was it worth the effort/cost to get your hands dirty vs. an automated formula

i am also watching for a reasonable entry into MVW during a market retrace as a counter-balance to the existing VAS holding
 

The Dream of Trading Success
Strategies promising high returns and low risks are common in the trading world. One such strategy is the ASX Top 5 Strategy, a medium-term momentum strategy applied to ASX 100 companies. The strategy claims a compound annual return (CAR) of 27.30% based on 20-year backtests. However, these promising results are based on theoretical, unaudited results. From January 2001 to March 2021, the strategy achieved a 27.3% CAR versus 9.1% for the S&P/ASX 100 Accumulation Index, but these are past results.

The Cost of the Dream
The ASX Top 5 Strategy is not free, costing $588 annually. This raises the question of who truly benefits - the traders seeking profits or the strategy's creators guaranteed to earn the fee, regardless of the strategy's actual performance.

The Reality of Trading
Strategies based on backtested results can give traders, especially those new to the market, a false sense of security. It is crucial to approach such strategies with a critical mindset, understanding that the only guaranteed winners may be the ones selling the dream. While the ASX Top 5 Strategy appears promising on paper, it is important to carefully evaluate any investment approach, and understand the risks involved, before making decisions.

In my opinion
It is important to be cautious of investment strategies that promote impressive results without providing audited performance data. As the adage says, "talk is cheap". Claims of high returns and low risk should be viewed sceptically without transparent, third-party verified information to back them up.

Skate.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

R
My strategy/plan going forward
Replies
13
Views
1K
RbNEO
R
Very nice Rain here today
4 5 6
Replies
103
Views
5K
farmerge
  • Poll
Financial Independence (Home Ownership, Super, Long Retirement) not possible for wage earners: What do we need and how do we get it?
11 12 13
Replies
258
Views
21K
Smurf1976
November 2024 DDD
2 3
Replies
53
Views
6K
ducati916
Ozempic: Magic Pill or Devils Bargain?
Replies
10
Views
2K
sptrawler
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...