Dump it Here

[divs4ever]

My key takeaways from each interaction we had
Less than useful. I expected more.

if that was a subscription service , yes i agree but it may improve over time ( or you may be able to fine-tune the questions to get a better outcome )

my key takeaway was the service was locked into a specific database , while rivals might use a 'consensus strategy ( access multiple databases but then select the majority choices )

 

[divs4ever]

@divs4ever, thank you for responding.



@divs4ever, this 12-month exercise is exclusively focused on tracking the “Capital Growth” of five selected companies from each participant. The results will reflect the continuous difference between the purchase price and the current market price of these stocks. Any dividends distributed during this period "will not" be factored into the ongoing analysis.

Skate.

cheers

so you can expect to lag in that experiment as the AI model will not see div. returns or franking as relevant ( whereas your bank account might tell a different story )

 

[Skate]

maybe AI could be directed at detecting stocks with increasing momentum ( share turnover ) combined with increasing/decreasing share price ( for those that write options or short sell )

@divs4ever, the point of my posts today was to demonstrate that the AI model available to us uses a search engine to respond rather than the capabilities of the model itself. When I listed my understanding of how stock picking should be conducted, "YOU.com" responded by confirming that they had indeed gathered their information from Morningstar.com.au. This is a pathetic answer, in my opinion. I know Morningstar has developed AI-powered tools to assist users in accessing investment research and data, but this response does not demonstrate any real understanding or insight into the topic.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

so you can expect to lag in that experiment as the AI model will not see div. returns or franking as relevant ( whereas your bank account might tell a different story )

@divs4ever, the primary objective of this experiment was to compare the stock-picking capabilities of an (AI) model with those of a reputed expert. I introduced an additional layer to the exercise by including five companies from my existing investment portfolio. It’s important to note that dividend returns or franking credits aren't relevant in this exercise, and won't be included, even if they provide me with an advantage.

Skate.

 

[TimeISmoney]

i think yes ( if convenient )

it will be interesting to see if any ASF members will use AI to enhance their stock-scanning abilities ( kind of hard to keep watch of those 1000 plus small caps )

If you could easily set your own parameters, let's say like daily and yearly percentage gains it could open new opportunities for different trades by screening the stockmarket way faster then humanly possible . You could manually do final checks wether the stock would be suitable for your own strategy.

In one of those AI picks it came up with FMG, FMG is OK I hold that stock in real life but I know there won't be any fast gains to be had with the current market outlookt on Iron ore, so therefore I deselected it, and that is how I ended up with four stocks out of five for. You will also notice I picked different dollar amounts invested on what I thought was value for money on one of the AI picks. The other I picked 1000 shares of each stock selected by AI.

 

[divs4ever]

@divs4ever, the point of my posts today was to demonstrate that the AI model available to us uses a search engine to respond rather than the capabilities of the model itself. When I listed my understanding of how stock picking should be conducted, "YOU.com" responded by confirming that they had indeed gathered their information from Morningstar.com.au. This is a pathetic answer, in my opinion. I know Morningstar has developed AI-powered tools to assist users in accessing investment research and data, but this response does not demonstrate any real understanding or insight into the topic.

Skate.

having dabbled in the computer hobby in the early in the early 2000's ( up to 2010 )

i watched some professionals trying to develop 'intelligent spam filters '

and in earlier years watched with interest the progress of computers playing chess against humans , that was a very slow/expensive process

but savvy/experienced investors only need to think but to the 'dot.com ' bubble to see the current trend to use 'AI' as a share price ' enhancer ( sometimes without adding any company value )

now if you have ever played much chess , you realize the computer has a database of permitted moves and possibly a database of classic games `should you vary a bit from classic games ( without blundering in the process ) the computer tends to get lost as it does not have well researched replies to draw on

 

[divs4ever]

If you could easily set your own parameters, let's say like daily and yearly percentage gains it could open new opportunities for different trades by screening the stockmarket way faster then humanly possible . You could manually do final checks wether the stock would be suitable for your own strategy.

In one of those AI picks it came up with FMG, FMG is OK I hold that stock in real life but I know there won't be any fast gains to be had with the current market outlookt on Iron ore, so therefore I deselected it, and that is how I ended up with four stocks out of five for. You will also notice I picked different dollar amounts invested on what I thought was value for money on one of the AI picks. The other I picked 1000 shares of each stock selected by AI.






View attachment 173224

actually FMG ( i don't hold currently ) might surprise you if it attains 'Green Credentials ' are gets included in the 'sustainable ' ETFs ( you know those stocks that hardly make any profit and survive on research grants )

then all it needs to do is keep the market cap. in the 'top 50 ' ( and 'sustainable' ) and the ETF market makers will do the heavy lifting

 

[Skate]

In one of those AI picks it came up with FMG, FMG is OK I hold that stock in real life but I know there won't be any fast gains to be had with the current market outlook on Iron ore, so therefore I deselected it

actually FMG might surprise you

The Art of Numbers
@TimeISmoney, below is a Snapshot of FMG Fortescue’s last 12-months performance that @divs4ever eluded too. A picture paints a thousand words, and in the world of trading, these words translate into numbers.

With a remarkable +21.20% change, FMG Fortescue has demonstrated significant growth oscillating between $18.91 and $29.95, showcasing a healthy volatility, characteristic of a vibrant company.

What’s more intriguing is the prospect of a "tremendous increase" if the stock regains its 52-week high. This potential upswing underscores the dynamic nature of FMG, where every fluctuation tells a story.



Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

Was awake far too early thisMorning so I formulated a few similar queries to chat gpt :
Repeating the same question return slightly different answers but with a few refinements, answers narrowed down to a few candidates, MQG, bhp csl resmed regularly and poppiing from time to time fmg CBA and a few others.not very original
I would feel better playing small caps with AI to try to find a hidden gem, more that following masses in asx20 stocks
But interesting and feeling like it is worth researching further asYou can formulate your own questions and add specific requirements

 

[Skate]

I would feel better playing small caps with AI to try to find a hidden gem, more that following masses in asx20 stocks

The five positions in my investment portfolio are all constituents of the ASX20
These companies, listed below, represent a diverse range and are some of the largest and most influential corporations in Australia. The estimated annual dividend from these investments is approximately $134,955, in addition to franking credits. This diversified portfolio not only provides a robust income stream but also potential capital growth opportunities.

1. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ)
2. BHP Group Limited (BHP)
3. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)
4. Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG)
5. Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)



Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

View attachment 173241



The five positions in my investment portfolio are all constituents of the ASX20
These companies, listed below, represent a diverse range and are some of the largest and most influential corporations in Australia. The estimated annual dividend from these investments is approximately $134,955, in addition to franking credits. This diversified portfolio not only provides a robust income stream but also potential capital growth opportunities.

1. Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ)
2. BHP Group Limited (BHP)
3. Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA)
4. Fortescue Metals Group Ltd (FMG)
5. Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS)

View attachment 173240

Skate.

Yes I know Mr @Skate and when asking the ai engine, thanswerei got were axs20 while I asked..within the xao.
But we can refine our query, add "with lower risk, highLiquidity, etc etc...
It would be interesting to investigate further, and maybe even ask things like
in January 2020 and based only on data available then, what would.....
Anyway exciting but still no cash to play

 

[rnr]

Yes I know Mr @Skate and when asking the ai engine, thanswerei got were axs20 while I asked..within the xao.
But we can refine our query, add "with lower risk, highLiquidity, etc etc...
It would be interesting to investigate further, and maybe even ask things like
in January 2020 and based only on data available then, what would.....
Anyway exciting but still no cash to play

Hi @qldfrog,

If your doing research is it really relevant if you've go no cash to play....research maybe...perhaps just testing an idea!

Cheers Rob

 

[qldfrog]

Hi @qldfrog,

If your doing research is it really relevant if you've go no cash to play....research maybe...perhaps just testing an idea!

Cheers Rob

True but i always found having skin in the game give me more incentives.....and make the study more accurate.
But I am still looking at it...and time availability factor is involved.
Currently both cash and time poir

 

[ducati916]

The Art of Numbers
@TimeISmoney, below is a Snapshot of FMG Fortescue’s last 12-months performance that @divs4ever eluded too. A picture paints a thousand words, and in the world of trading, these words translate into numbers.

With a remarkable +21.20% change, FMG Fortescue has demonstrated significant growth oscillating between $18.91 and $29.95, showcasing a healthy volatility, characteristic of a vibrant company.

What’s more intriguing is the prospect of a "tremendous increase" if the stock regains its 52-week high. This potential upswing underscores the dynamic nature of FMG, where every fluctuation tells a story.

View attachment 173233

Skate.

FMG is not showing 'earnings' growth, to which the appellation 'growth' is applied. In fact it is demonstrating earnings compression.

Volatility in the share price and capitalisation value is not as important to FMG as it would be to a bank. Therefore, on a 'fundamental' analysis the demonstration of share price volatility is not terribly important.

On a technical analysis, of course it is important.

Be careful not to conflate a 'fundamental' analysis with a 'technical' analysis.

jog on
duc

 

[divs4ever]

True but i always found having skin in the game give me more incentives.....and make the study more accurate.
But I am still looking at it...and time availability factor is involved.
Currently both cash and time poir

AI if refined does give the opportunity of a personalized scanning tool , so maybe a little time well spent (playing with parameters and keywords )

cheers

 

[Skate]

View attachment 173253

FMG is not showing 'earnings' growth, to which the appellation 'growth' is applied. In fact it is demonstrating earnings compression.

Volatility in the share price and capitalisation value is not as important to FMG as it would be to a bank. Therefore, on a 'fundamental' analysis the demonstration of share price volatility is not terribly important.

On a technical analysis, of course it is important.

Be careful not to conflate a 'fundamental' analysis with a 'technical' analysis.

jog on
duc

@ducati916, thank you for your insightful comments. You’re absolutely right that FMG is not showing ‘earnings’ growth, but rather earnings compression. This is an important distinction and I appreciate you bringing it to light.

As for the volatility in the share price and capitalisation value, I agree that it’s not as crucial for FMG as it would be for a bank. However, it’s worth noting that volatility can still provide valuable insights into the market’s perception of the company’s future prospects.

Regarding your point about not conflating ‘fundamental’ analysis with ‘technical’ analysis, I couldn’t agree more. Both types of analysis have their place and can provide valuable insights when used correctly. It’s important to understand the differences between them and to apply them appropriately.

Looking at the income statement you posted, it’s clear that while FMG’s total revenue has increased over the years, so too have its costs, leading to fluctuations in net income. This is something that investors should certainly take into account when considering FMG’s future prospects.

Once again, thank you for your thoughtful analysis. It’s discussions like these that help us all become better investors.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

AI if refined does give the opportunity of a personalized scanning tool , so maybe a little time well spent (playing with parameters and keywords )

cheers

Trading using (AI)
Personalising an (AI) model for trading, as suggested by @divs4ever, is certainly achievable. However, it’s a complex process that requires a significant amount of effort and expertise, even when using an open-source (AI) model, and may not be the right fit for everyone.

While the process may appear simple, it’s actually quite complex. However, it’s crucial to remember that while (AI) can provide valuable insights, it's not infallible even when all the ducks align. Meaning, (AI) is not without its flaws.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

FMG is 2nd most volatile stock in top20 and for that very reason its top of my list for tradable stocks in big caps . The top 5 volatility group has the 3 big IO stocks in it which is no surprise to me. Volatility one of the most overlooked metrics in trading and yet one of the most important for me

The key aspect of trading is risk management
Trading requires effective risk management, and volatility is just one aspect to consider. While high volatility can create opportunities for short-term traders like @Chipp, it also increases the potential for risk.

Commodities on the other hand, such as iron ore often exhibit high volatility due to price fluctuations, underscoring the need for a robust risk management strategy in trading. Investing, on the other hand, can be simpler, akin to riding the waves of volatility.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Market fluctuations
The image below shows the impact of market fluctuations on my investment portfolio over a short period (2 hours). It demonstrates how the value of individual stocks (ANZ, BHP, CBA, FMG, WDS) can significantly change due to these fluctuations. Understanding short-term market fluctuations is crucial for investors to appreciate and accept.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

The thrill of looking at profits
Looking at profits fuels the passion for trading and investing. However, it’s crucial to understand that not all profits are the same.

There are two distinct types of profits: ‘Open’ and ‘Closed’
‘Open Profits’ are essentially paper profits. They represent the potential gains on your current positions in the market. These profits are subject to market fluctuations and can change rapidly as demonstrated in my previous post. They aren’t truly yours until you close the position. On the other hand, ‘Closed Profits’ are the gains you’ve realised by closing a position. Once a trade is closed, these profits are secured and belong to you, irrespective of future market movements.

Understanding this distinction is the key
When you accept that ‘Open Profits’ belong to the market and only ‘Closed Profits’ belong to you, navigating the markets becomes a much smoother journey.

Skate.