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Can Google's Gemini (AI) beat a human at trading
As (AI) continues to advance, it is likely to become an indispensable tool for small investors, providing us with a level playing field and helping us to stay ahead of the curve in the ever-changing financial landscape. What's particularly fascinating is that (AI) not only models the traditional "Technical Analysis" aspects but also has a solid grasp on sentiment analysis. This allows (AI) to interpret the financial market and identify the underlying reasons behind price fluctuations.

Skate.
 
It sounds like that AI should have an edge over the human in that it can consider all factors in real time without overlookinging anything. This will be very revealing showing if AI can live up to the hipe or if AI still has a way to go in it's development before it can live up to it's name.
 
AI may be in front now but will it have consistency, week one it made a loss. I know it's too soon to draw any conclusions but that loss is a red flag.
 
which human ?

some humans are cheating ( insider trading )

one human was disorientating HFTs with a simple programmable mouse

and then you have humans with a contrarian bent ,even if used occasionally , but wisely , that can produce out sized gains

so does your AI ( model ) try to beat the trend change or just react to the change quicker (than most )

it is very hard to level the playing field when some parts of the game is rigged
 
Well we do have a two against one situation.
 
Aren't most of the current AI options available to the average punter, trained on publicly available data? This would include statistical information like company fundamentals etc, technical information like growth, momentum etc, but also opinions from other investors, fund managers, forums and the like?

Depending on the questions asked of the AI and the instructions given, you could get very different answers.

I would potentially think that unless granular questions were asked around which way growth should be measured, or measurement around the sustainability of the income or many other numerous important questions - you could end up with a result that just represents the greatest number of recommendations for a stock in the AI's training data.

An example of this could be if Motley Fool, AustralianSuper, HotCopper and Morningstar all rated similar stocks as being the best opportunity, that is what you would end up with. Or it could even just pick the 5 highest consensus recommended stocks?

I would think, the experienced and consistent investor, that could ask the right questions of AI to do the leg work for them (crunching the statistics) should by rights come up with a competitive result.

Of course this is only as good as the 1st unpredictable world event to come up during the year that invalidates all of the selections

Love the thoughtpeice.
 
WilsonFisk said:
Love the thoughtpeice.
Click to expand...



@WilsonFisk, you've raised some insightful points about the current (AI) options available to the average investor. Many (AI) systems are indeed trained on publicly available data, which includes company fundamentals, technical indicators, and opinions from various sources. The output of an (AI) system can indeed vary depending on the questions asked and the instructions given.

In the specific scenario "Google Gemini (AI)" was asked to supply the "top five growth and income stocks" for the next 12 months on the ASX.

Gemini (AI) prioritised the five companies with the highest consensus on the simple question asked. However, I'm sure that each time the question is reformulated, (AI) will recalculate the selection results concerning that particular question.

Also, it's worth noting that the choice of which (AI) system to use can also influence the selection of stocks. Different (AI) models may have varying training data, and methodologies, which can lead to different recommendations. Therefore, if you use one (AI) over another, it could potentially yield an alternative selection set.

That being said, it's important to acknowledge that (AI) and humans are not infallible and may have limitations with unexpected events or market conditions that can indeed impact the validity of any investment strategy, including those based on (AI) recommendations. As investors, we consider these factors when selecting our "long-term" investment choices, (well I did).

As far as I'm concerned, it's important to ensure that selection choices include robust companies that can withstand the uncertainties and challenges presented by the market.

Skate.
 
i believe you are correct

unless the AI has the opportunity to delve into the more obscure data ( say digest the full reports of reserve banks and government reports ) even assuming the AI can penetrate pay-walls .

i can't see the advantage apart from the faster timing in making decisions/placing orders ( but in saying that , that is a BIG edge in professional trading )
 
WilsonFisk said:
Of course this is only as good as the 1st unpredictable world event to come up during the year that invalidates all of the selections
Click to expand...
and that is the edge of the watchful ( opportunistic ) investor .. recognize the pivotal event and alter the investments as they see fit ( buy extra of a bashed stock or take profit/cut losses etc )
 

Generating a sustainable income
The objective of this 12-month experiment is to explore the feasibility of deriving a sustainable income from a portfolio of five investments, based on three key principles: Dividends, Franking Credits, and long-term Capital Gains.









Skate.
 
interesting that your last two weeks are red , not that i am gloating too much , my February has so far been uninspiring
 
divs4ever said:
interesting that your last two weeks are red , not that i am gloating too much , my February has so far been uninspiring
Click to expand...

Since inception - the weekly average return is $12,740
@divs4ever, having a portfolio consisting of ANZ (Australia and New Zealand Banking Group), BHP (BHP Group Limited), CBA (Commonwealth Bank of Australia), FMG (Fortescue Metals Group Limited), and WDS (Woodside Energy) exposes the portfolio to market fluctuations. The performance of individual stocks and sectors can be influenced by various factors and investor sentiment. This can lead to swings in the market and impact the value of the investment portfolio from day to day.

Skate.
 
true , but the index ( XJO ) is flirting with all-time highs

one might have expected 5 large cap. div. paying stocks to be a better indication of that , and investor sentiment to be supportive
 
peter2 said:
If this investment is only about sustainable income then this is all we need.

View attachment 171007
Click to expand...

@peter2, you're absolutely right. The primary objective of this investment strategy is to generate sustainable income, and dividends are a crucial component in achieving that goal. However, it's important to consider a comprehensive approach that includes other elements such as Franking Credits and long-term Capital Gains.

Additionally, Franking Credits not only enhance the overall return of the portfolio but also have the potential to increase its value when funds are not immediately required that be reinvested.

Also, considering long-term Capital Gains is important for the overall growth and performance of the investment portfolio. Capital gains simply increase the value of the initial investment, allowing wealth to build over time.

By incorporating these three fundamental principles in my initial investment decision (1) Dividends, (2) Franking Credits, and (3) long-term Capital Gains I believe form a well-rounded and robust investment strategy aimed at generating sustainable income while maximising the potential benefits of the investment portfolio.

Skate.
 
divs4ever said:
true , but the index ( XJO ) is flirting with all-time highs

one might have expected 5 large cap. div. paying stocks to be a better indication of that , and investor sentiment to be supportive
Click to expand...

@divs4ever, I understand your perspective, and it does seem logical to expect that a portfolio consisting of five large-cap dividend-paying stocks would provide a better indication of the market's performance, especially when investor sentiment is supportive. However, it's important to remember that each company's performance is influenced by various factors, and they are at the mercy of the results they report.

In the case of natural resources, these companies can face pressure from multiple sources such as commodity prices, and global demand, that can significantly impact their operations and profitability.

Skate.
 
i am more watchful on ( unrealized ) capital losses , just in case a sudden change of plans is needed,

and don't forget inflation which is quietly devaluing your treasure chest

capital gains is nice , but with your portfolio you should be close to tracking the XJO
 

Where Soul Patts is investing for long term growth and dividends​


Where Soul Patts is investing for long term growth and dividends

With a market cap over $12 billion Soul Patts is now an ASX50 stock and there’s no signs of a slowdown.
www.livewiremarkets.com

Soul Patts is cashed up and ready for the next strategic investment​


Soul Patts is cashed up and ready for the next strategic investment

Washington H Soul Pattinson and Co is a stalwart of the Australian market, a diversified investment house whose roots run deep.
www.livewiremarkets.com

am not so much suggesting SOL as a buy ( i hold , but consider it too expensive to add )

but maybe there are some tips among this drivel
 
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