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farmerge said:
Geez I'm having trouble planning as far ahead as tomorrow. with the heat etc.
Click to expand...
i tried for a 10 year plan but the health got in the way after only 7( years )

luckily i decided to play ( relative ) safety right from the start

about the only wisdom i can add is .. have a comprehensive health check at the start ( i didn't ) i had a crazy 6 month spiral into an ad-hoc plan to redefine my income for investing
 
Skate said:
Think about how long are you going to live.
How would you invest if you knew you could live another 20 or 30 years after retiring?
Click to expand...
that would confound the medical folk , but that was my original strategy , before my working life was stopped ( early )

all was doing OK until mid 2016( apart from the disappointment of there being no crash around mid 2013 )

i selectively joined DRPs added and reduced to take opportunities

and ... we are being slow marched into WW3 , but will it go nuclear or biological ?
 
Investment Strategy Weekly Update
Investing can be a rewarding way to obtain financial freedom. However, it also involves some risks as the market is unpredictable, and there will be ups and downs along the way. You should focus on the long-term trends and returns, rather than the short-term fluctuations.

ANZ.AX Shares 15,572
BHP.AX Shares 13,225
CBA.AX Shares 3,698
FMG.AX Share 15,464
WDS.AX Share 13,887



Skate.
 
are you going to include your dividends on the way

i know many focus on capital gains/losses but investing is really about income received ( IMO )

interesting result considering the XJO touched a new record high during the week
 
divs4ever said:
are you going to include your dividends on the way
Click to expand...

@divs4ever, the dividends and franking credits will be comprehensively accounted for as each week passes. The objective is to explore the feasibility of deriving a sustainable income from a portfolio of five investments.

As the weeks and months go by, I anticipate fluctuations in the value of my investments. While market shifts and unforeseen events may present challenges, I'm more than convinced the investment portfolio will continue to generate a sustainable and liveable income stream.

Skate.
 
i hope you are correct ( because i am trying a similar strategy , with different shares )

but there are some unusual changes happening

cheers
 
Good luck Mr @Skate
A note:
I found the list of shares and their number not really useful:
Either the total packet value per company or even better a percentage would IMHO be more informative?
$value to put gain/loss on perspective
Or % but then we need % for gain/loss?

I missed most of the Christmas rally for my self invest super allocation started very end of last year but happy as well with a gain of above $5k out of less than $200k invested, in less than a month and a half.
Much more diversified in my case
 

peter2 said:
I'm with @Belli, ditch the spreadsheet. These investments have no value other than providing income.
Click to expand...

@qldfrog, after reading the comments from @Belli and @peter2, I naturally assumed that sometimes less is more, so I've decided to keep my weekly updates brief.

I originally planned to invest $2m split 6 ways, but after a week, I rebalanced my portfolio to ensure it was aligned with my investment principles and narrowed it down to 5 positions. 2 Banks, 2 Miners and an Energy company.

I based my decisions on three key factors:
1. Dividends: I looked for companies that offer consistent and attractive dividends, providing a steady income stream.
2. Franking Credits: I sought out companies that offer franking credits, which can increase my overall returns.
3. Capital Gains: I considered companies with a strong track record of increasing their share price over time.

Skate.
 
qldfrog said:
A note: I found the list of shares and their number not really useful: Either the total packet value per company or even better a percentage would IMHO be more informative? $value to put gain/loss on perspective Or % but then we need % for gain/loss?
Click to expand...

Skate's Investment Portfolio
@qldfrog, below are additional metrics and the percentage change for each investment.


















Skate.
 
divs4ever said:
i hope you are correct ( because i am trying a similar strategy , with different shares ) but there are some unusual changes happening
Click to expand...

@divs4ever, it's great to hear that you're also trying a similar investment strategy. I'd like to share some key metrics of the positions in my portfolio from the past year, and I'm always looking for ways to improve and optimise my investment strategy. I've been considering input from a few members, and I'm open to new ideas when it comes to adding to my portfolio.

1. ANZ (ANZ Group Holdings)
ANZ's stock price has been steadily increasing over the past year, with a strong 1-year return of 6.79%. The stock has outperformed its sector and the ASX 200 over the same period. The bank's recent financial results have been positive, with a 2.82% increase in net profit after tax and a 7.87% increase in earnings per share. The stock's price-to-earnings ratio is 12.18, which is slightly above the sector average. ANZ's strong performance is attributed to its diversified business model, strong capital position, and growth in its retail and commercial banking segments.

2. BHP (BHP Group)
BHP's stock price has been declining over the past year, with a -3.78% return. The stock has underperformed its sector and the ASX 200 over the same period. The company's recent financial results have been mixed, with a 2.55% increase in earnings per share but a 0.35% decrease in revenue. The stock's price-to-earnings ratio is 18.18, which is above the sector average. BHP's performance has been impacted by the decline in global commodity prices, particularly iron ore and coal, which have affected the company's revenue and profitability.

3. CBA (Commonwealth Bank of Australia)
CBA's stock price has been steadily increasing over the past year, with a strong 1-year return of 5.47%. The stock has outperformed its sector and the ASX 200 over the same period. The bank's recent financial results have been positive, with a 5.89% increase in net profit after tax and a 2.25% increase in earnings per share. The stock's price-to-earnings ratio is 19.73, which is slightly above the sector average. CBA's strong performance is attributed to its strong retail banking segment, diversified business model, and growth in its wealth management and insurance segments.

4. FMG (Fortescue Metals Group)
FMG's stock price has been volatile over the past year, with a 1-year return of 25.49%. The stock has outperformed its sector and the ASX 200 over the same period. The company's recent financial results have been mixed, with a 1.56% increase in earnings per share but a 0.29% decrease in revenue. The stock's price-to-earnings ratio is 8.39, which is below the sector average. FMG's performance has been impacted by the volatility in global iron ore prices, which have affected the company's revenue and profitability. However, the company's strong balance sheet and growth prospects in the iron ore market could potentially drive the stock price up in the long term.

5. WDS (Woodside Energy Group)
WDS's stock price has been declining over the past year, with a -10.51% return. The stock has underperformed its sector and the ASX 200 over the same period. The company's recent financial results have been mixed, with a 1.55% increase in earnings per share but a 7.19% decrease in revenue. The stock's price-to-earnings ratio is 14.85, which is slightly above the sector average. WDS's performance has been impacted by the decline in global oil prices, which have affected the company's revenue and profitability. However, the company's strong financial position and growth prospects in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market could potentially drive the stock price up in the long term.

Skate.
 
well in my opinion most of the worthwhile stocks are currently over-riced , but that is no help to those buying now

so let's try my 'instinctive approach ' where is the 'puck ' ( market ) moving to ?

street level information ( looking around , and talking to small business [ mostly unlisted ] ) has a tough view of the current economy completely at odds to the mainstream narrative ( and ASX around record highs )

so are we in a two tier economy ?

if so you want a BIG cap. stock ( more likely to get a government lifeline ) and yet has access to street level stress

... so how about BSL , out here i see new sheds and tanks ( but hardly any new houses )

now i was in BSL years back for a very nice ride ( and you would have to force me to buy above $6 ) , but for the new buyer it has size , it is still looking to grow

DJ Rio Tinto, BHP, BlueScope to Partner on Low-Carbon Steel From Iron Ore
BHP $46.30
-$0.12 (-0.3%)$46.29$46.40
09 Feb 2024 10:55:16
17 Views 0 comments
By Rhiannon Hoyle
Iron-ore miners Rio Tinto and BHP Group said they will partner with steelmaker BlueScope Steel to consider the development of Australia's first electric-smelting furnace pilot plant that would make low-carbon steel from iron ore.
The companies will jointly aim to demonstrate they can produce molten iron from Pilbara ore using renewable power in combination with so-called direct reduced iron, or DRI, technology, they said in a joint statement on Friday. The trio will look at a number of locations in Australia for the proposed pilot plant which, if approved, could be commissioned as early as 2027, they said.
Rio Tinto and BHP are two of the world's biggest iron ore miners--alongside Brazil's Vale--and iron ore from Australia's Pilbara region accounts for more than half of global exports. Today, that ore mostly feeds blast furnaces in Asia that require coal to make steel.
If the pilot is successful, "it could help open a potential pathway to near-zero greenhouse gas emission-intensity operations for steelmakers that rely on Australian iron ore to meet global steel demand," the companies said in the statement.
Write to Rhiannon Hoyle at rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
February 08, 2024 18:55 ET (23:55 GMT)

and sells to customers big and small , local and international

now yield looks slim ( about 2% ) but fully franked and some room from capital gain

( i hold BHP and not BSL or RIO )

now many see 'consumer staples ' as safe havens and despite the risks ( which are being poorly rewarded ) some brokers are backing GNC ( Bell Potter is tipping a 30% capital gains ) i prefer SGL(LV ) which has usually very low liquidity

SGL ( the voting version ) has the feature of only being owned by selected rice-growers ( no vulture capitalists )

( i hold both GNC and SGLLV )

so what am i trying to buy ( or add to ) currently

WDS ( below $25 i am prepared to wait )

FEX , iron and some room for growth

NIC , iron/nickel/specialty steel and operates outside Australia

ILU looks like a train-wreck but if anyone can make money out of rare-earths iLU is one of them

HZN ( i don't hold yet but have an order in ) while the big guys are talking take-overs, mergers , this one is finally making some profits

GRR iron pellets , is mostly ignored by the big guys one steady customer ( the Chinese majority holder ) ( not very liquid )

GNE , a NZ power utility ( so no franking ) half-owned by the NZ government the 'ugly sister 'of the big 3 ( includes MCY and MEZ ) i hold all 3 , already has 'green energy assets ' but NZ is 'a small pond ' so not so liquid )

and EVN which is starting to look like another OZL ( a lot of 'averaging down and patience needed ' before the sunshine )

most of these will fail your screening , but then i already hold 'the bottom drawer ' stocks which i currently consider over-priced )

i suppose the irony in this is the 'puck analogy ' in real life in school cricket i used to play ( when i did ) at silly mid-on ( or off ) so close to the batsman , many would hit directly at you ( expecting you to duck ) and i would step aside and ( normally ) catch the ball one hand
 
AI vs. Expert: The Stock-Picking Showdown
Have you ever wondered if artificial intelligence (AI) can beat human experts at stock picking? - I recently read a thought-provoking article about an experiment to decide who is the better stock picker. The experiment was about pitting Google's AI, "Gemini", against seasoned fund manager Dr. Don Hamson from Plato Investment Management to determine who is the better stock picker.

On the 22nd January 2024
Google Gemini was asked, for its top five growth and income stocks for the next 12 months on the ASX. Simple instructions and easy for AI to respond to. The response to its selection was interesting which will be listed in the next few posts.

But there's a twist
I'm throwing my hat in the ring too! - I'm curious to see how my picks fare against these heavyweights.

Skate.
 
AI vs. Expert: The Stock-Picking Showdown
The results of this experiment will not only shed light on the effectiveness of AI in stock picking but also underscore the importance of collaboration between humans and AI in investment decision-making. By harnessing the strengths of both, we may be able to formulate a more comprehensive and informed investment strategy that leverages the best of both worlds.

The Rules of the Game
The experiment is straightforward. We’re each starting with a $100k portfolio, divided equally across five stocks, each worth $20,000. Each participant will select five income stocks and provide a brief rationale for their choices. The performance of these stocks will be tracked until the end of the year, with entry prices calculated from January 22, 2024.

The ultimate question we aim to answer
Who is the superior stock picker?

Skate.
 
AI vs. the Expert
It’s important to clarify that AI is not intended to replace human judgment completely. Instead, it’s designed to offer insights that might not be immediately apparent to human analysts. As we delve deeper into the capabilities of AI in investing, it’s crucial to remember that both AI and human analysts have their unique strengths and weaknesses.

The purpose of this experiment
Is simply to ignite a discussion about the role of AI in investment decision-making and the factors to consider when selecting stocks. The year-long performance of these picks will offer valuable insights into the strengths and weaknesses of both AI and human stock pickers. The outcome over time will not only shed light on the effectiveness of AI in stock picking but also underscore the importance of collaboration between humans and AI in investment decision-making.

Skate.
 
Contestant number 1
AI is a rather new technology offered to the masses was asked to select five stocks in a particular style and pit it against a real stock picker, in a fun thought experiment. I recognise that this is nothing more than a bit of fun. Ultimately, AI will likely become a tool that all use to make more informed decisions, across a broad range of topics.

On the 22nd January 2024, Google "Gemini" was asked, for its top five growth and income stocks for the next 12 months on the ASX. The response to its selection was interesting.

Google Gemini AI Picks:
1. Harvey Norman (ASX: HVN) - High dividend yield and potential rebound after profit dip.
2. National Storage REIT (ASX: NSR) - Growing demand for self-storage and consistent dividend payouts.
3. Transurban (ASX: TCL) - Toll giant enjoying increased traffic and reliable income stream.
4. Macquarie Group (ASX: MQG) - Financial powerhouse with diversified revenue and solid dividend history.
5. Dexus Property Group (ASX: DXS) - Office landlord, recovering rental market, and attractive current yield.

Skate.
 
Contestant number 2 (Don Hamson)
Dr Don Hamson from Plato Investment Management, with over 25 years of investment management experience. He founded Plato Investment Management Limited in 2006 has written several white papers on after-tax investing, and has spoken at many conferences and seminars on this subject. Before Plato, Don was Head of Active Equities, Asia Pacific and a member of the global Senior Management Group at State Street Global Advisors, responsible for over $10B in active and enhanced equity investments. In conclusion, Don is no slouch.

Dr. Don Hamson's Picks:
1. Ampol (ASX: ALD) - Australia's largest fuel refiner and retailer with a strong yield and healthy franking balance.
2. JB Hi-Fi (ASX: JBH) - Strong management team with a proven track record in discretionary retailing.
3. Macquarie (ASX: MQG) - Reliable yield generator in income portfolios, with a great track record of growing earnings and dividends.
4. Medibank Private (ASX: MPL) - Insurers are positioned to benefit from higher interest rates and lower claims, making Medibank a strong pick.
5. Rio Tinto (ASX: RIO) - Mining giant with high exposure to iron ore, delivering solid outcomes for shareholders despite doomsayers.

Skate.
 
Contestant number 3 (Skate)
I based my investment decisions on three key principles, Dividends, Franking Credits and long-term capital Gains.

1. Dividends
I wanted to invest in companies that offer consistent and attractive dividends, providing me with a steady income stream.

2. Franking Credits
I looked for companies that offer franking credits, which can increase my overall returns.

3. Capital Gains
I also considered the potential for capital growth, investing in companies with a strong track record of increasing their share price over time

Skate's Picks:
1. ANZ Bank (ASX: ANZ) - Dividend Yield: 6.6%, Franking Credits: 56%
2. BHP (ASX: BHP) - Dividend Yield: 4.7%, Franking Credits: 100%
3. CBA Bank (ASX: CBA) - Dividend Yield: 3.9%, Franking Credits: 100%
4. FMG (ASX: FMG) - Dividend Yield: 7.6%, Franking Credits: 100%
5. Woodside Energy (ASX: WDS) - Dividend Yield: 11.7%, Franking Credits: 100%

Skate.
 
Can Google's Gemini Beat Dr. Hamson in Income Stock Picking?
For years, experts debated the potential of AI in financial markets. Today, the debate gets real as Google's AI, Gemini, takes on seasoned fund manager Dr. Don Hamson in a head-to-head income stock-picking challenge. Both contenders have chosen five income stocks, aiming for the highest combined return over the next year. Can AI outperform human expertise? Follow along as I track their performance and uncover valuable insights.

Background
Gemini is a cutting-edge large language model trained on vast financial data.
Dr. Hamson boasts a 20-year career with a proven track record in income investing.

Experiment Details
Objective: Compare the annual return of five income stocks chosen by each participant.
Rules: Each participant chooses their stocks. Trades cannot be adjusted throughout the year.

Data & Transparency
The performance will be tracked using "Share Trade Tracker" in combination with Yahoo or Norgate data.
All picks and results will be publicly disclosed weekly and at the end of the experiment if there is interest.

Skate.
 
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