Dump it Here

Skate said:

End of year - Investment Update


1. As the weeks and months go by, I expect the value of my investments to fluctuate. While market shifts and unforeseen events may pose challenges, dividends and franking credits should remain somewhat steady even in times of market uncertainty.

2. Ultimately, my investment strategy is designed to withstand market volatility and capitalise on the long-term growth potential of my portfolio. By adopting a patient, hands-off approach, I'm confident that my investments will continue to generate a sustainable and liveable income stream, helping me achieve my financial goals.












Skate.

Click to expand...

1. Why should the dividends remain steady in market uncertainty?

2. How is your investment strategy designed to withstand market volatility?

My understanding is that a straight buy and hold is subject to market fluctuations. In other words it cannot withstand market volatility. A covered call strategy could offset some volatility, but it carries its own issues. Dollar cost averaging is a pretty decent strategy with a fundamental bias, but that does not seem to be the strategy here.

jog on
duc

ducati916 said:

1. Why should the dividends remain steady in market uncertainty?

2. How is your investment strategy designed to withstand market volatility?

3. My understanding is that a straight buy and hold is subject to market fluctuations. In other words it cannot withstand market volatility.

jog on
duc

Click to expand...

@ducati916, thanks for your questions, let me answer them in order.

1. Dividends can remain somewhat steady in market uncertainty because they are paid out by companies based on their financial performance, which is not necessarily directly tied to short-term market fluctuations. While market volatility can impact stock prices, companies with strong fundamentals and a history of paying consistent dividends are likely to continue paying dividends even in times of market uncertainty. However, it's important to note that dividends can still be affected by a company's financial performance and other factors such as changes in industry trends or economic conditions.

2. My investment strategy is designed to withstand market volatility by focusing on long-term growth and income generation, rather than short-term market movements. I have a diversified portfolio of six high-quality companies with strong fundamentals, including companies that have a history of paying consistent dividends. Additionally, I have a long-term perspective and I'll avoid making emotional or impulsive decisions based on short-term market fluctuations. By adopting a patient, hands-off approach, I aim to ride out market volatility and benefit from the long-term growth potential of my portfolio.

3. Regarding your statement that a straight buy-and-hold strategy is subject to market fluctuations, you're correct. While a buy-and-hold strategy can be effective for long-term investing, it doesn't protect against market volatility. However, I believe that strategies like covered calls and dollar-cost averaging, which aim to offset volatility, come with their own set of risks and limitations that may not be worth the trade-off.

Instead, my focus will be on steadily building up my position in each of the six high-quality companies, while adopting a patient, hands-off approach to ride out market fluctuations and benefit from the long-term growth potential of my investments. By taking a long-term view, I aim to mitigate risk and increase the likelihood of achieving long-term success.

Skate.

Sorry My Dear friend Skate

But Your ship Design is what I call amateurish
It is the Design of a 14 year old IMHO who has not the courage to cross the road
What has happened to you?

Have you left all your Beginners behind with less than a Million Dollars?

What happened to your Non-Emotional Mechanical Indicators

I thought you were on a GOOD/ GREAT idea here

BUT it seems all has been ditched

I Am Very Saddened with witnessing you throwing in the towel on the Non-Emotional Mechanical approach

'avagoodweekend


NB: I Know you can do a lot BETTER than your latest Ship Design

Captain_Chaza said:

Sorry My Dear friend Skate

But Your ship Design is what I call amateurish
It is the Design of a 14 year old IMHO who has not the courage to cross the road
What has happened to you?

Have you left all your Beginners behind with less than a Million Dollars?

What happened to your Non-Emotional Mechanical Indicators

I thought you were on a GOOD/ GREAT idea here

BUT it seems all has been ditched

I Am Very Saddened with witnessing you throwing in the towel on the Non-Emotional Mechanical approach

'avagoodweekend
View attachment 168010

NB: I Know you can do a lot BETTER than your latest Ship Design

Click to expand...

@Captain_Chaza, I appreciate your perspectives on my transition from being a trader to an investor. However, I want to clarify that I'm not giving up entirely, I'm simply taking a break to reassess my strategies. I understand that both you and @ducati916 have reservations about the companies I've chosen for my portfolio, which I intend to rely on for generating a sustainable income.

Skate.

Skate said:

@Captain_Chaza, I appreciate your perspectives on my transition from being a trader to an investor. However, I want to clarify that I'm not giving up entirely, I'm simply taking a break to reassess my strategies. I understand that both you and @ducati916 have reservations about the companies I've chosen for my portfolio, which I intend to rely on for generating a sustainable income.

Skate.

Click to expand...

They are not alone Mr @Skate
All eggs in 6 baskets?

Bhp one of them
share price when I started working for them mid 2000 was around $40 ( my manager was investing heavily in company sponsored shares so I remember)
It closed when the market is at its peak at $69 and was at $52 less than a year ago
So in just below 20y including a booming commodity market, credit expansion and non benign inflation that company that I highlight as I deeply know its flaws increased by less than 50 percent and divested it's jewels
You hope the dividends were matching the inflation losses, and the sale of assets got back some of this real loss..
The xao during that time more than doubled
miners use a finite resource...their lease.. so their intrinsic value diminishes with time...
Very very hard for non experts to do fundamentals on mining.
----
I understand the move to buy and hold
What is really puzzling/worrying me is:
the purposely absence of diversification: one company only and not an ETF or at least a few different miners
And even for this company why not having staged entries?
For me, it is very much like a "All on 4" at the roulette.
More exactly 6 such bets.
And yes this can be successfull..of course, blue chips, big names.
If Mr skate purpose is a painless steady income, this is not a chase to the next unicorn we all agree..
so is it not a good reason to spread shares entries and variety , add some non Australian market exposure, currency edging in a way or another?

Anyway, I am lost there but wish you all the best, genuinely.
Keep us posted..but for such a portfolio style, I would stick to quarterly or yearly updates for sanity and peace of mind and would not look at these daily or weekly ...
And let's not forget to celebrate the Christmas break and now new year

Skate said:

@ducati916, thanks for your questions, let me answer them in order.

1. Dividends can remain somewhat steady in market uncertainty because they are paid out by companies based on their financial performance, which is not necessarily directly tied to short-term market fluctuations. While market volatility can impact stock prices, companies with strong fundamentals and a history of paying consistent dividends are likely to continue paying dividends even in times of market uncertainty. However, it's important to note that dividends can still be affected by a company's financial performance and other factors such as changes in industry trends or economic conditions.

2. My investment strategy is designed to withstand market volatility by focusing on long-term growth and income generation, rather than short-term market movements. I have a diversified portfolio of six high-quality companies with strong fundamentals, including companies that have a history of paying consistent dividends. Additionally, I have a long-term perspective and I'll avoid making emotional or impulsive decisions based on short-term market fluctuations. By adopting a patient, hands-off approach, I aim to ride out market volatility and benefit from the long-term growth potential of my portfolio.

3. Regarding your statement that a straight buy-and-hold strategy is subject to market fluctuations, you're correct. While a buy-and-hold strategy can be effective for long-term investing, it doesn't protect against market volatility. However, I believe that strategies like covered calls and dollar-cost averaging, which aim to offset volatility, come with their own set of risks and limitations that may not be worth the trade-off.

Instead, my focus will be on steadily building up my position in each of the six high-quality companies, while adopting a patient, hands-off approach to ride out market fluctuations and benefit from the long-term growth potential of my investments. By taking a long-term view, I aim to mitigate risk and increase the likelihood of achieving long-term success.

Skate.

Click to expand...

Mr Skate,

1. Dividends are impacted by the company's leverage ratio (debt). Depending on when they took that debt out and any requirements to roll that debt over, at currently far higher rates, could impact their dividend policy. What is the debt situation with your 2 miners as miners usually carry high leverage? Banks are allowed to mark-to-fantasy their assets and move them off balance sheet or in the US bail themselves out via BTFP at the Fed. What is the situation with your 2 banks?

2. Long term growth is a function of (a) real GDP and (b) nominal GDP growth. Real GDP growth is pretty close to zero. Which leaves nominal GDP growth or inflation as it more colloquially known. What level of inflation will be beneficial to support earnings growth to your Super 6?

3. Yes they do. Have you backtested the differences to confirm the superiority of B&H? There is only 1 scenario that B&H outperforms: they go up and never come down. Now I understand that commissions play a role. B&H does save on commissions. In the US I pay zero commissions on stocks and virtually nothing on Options. So I am lucky in that way.

4. Building your position. Ok, this sounds much more promising. That would mean: (a) you have plenty of dry powder left, (b) you will continue trading/working and plow future profits/income into expanding your positions or (c) some combination of both.

Given that these are large, mature companies, why not buy a single ETF that takes away credit risk and leaves only market risk? The long term growth will likely be greater in the ETF. Plenty that give you a far higher yield. To add to that safety, you could also move up the capital structure into preferred's.



Of course you take on currency risk which is significant. However there will be (you would think) an equivalent ETF in Aus.

jog on
duc

Good morning champions,

Discussion on Gambling, Investing and Trading is nothing new. Everybody will have an opinion on it.

All three disciplines are what rcw1 terms to be inextricably interwoven.

Anybody can gamble, trade or invest, once or twice, weekly, monthly, even for 12 months, 24 months, 36 months etc ... maybe, but those that have stood the test of time... is no mean feat to be successful in either trading, investing or gambling or any combination. Time has a habit of exposing our weaknesses and brings us back down to earth with a thud. You are only as good as your last play no matter what methodology executed and no matter who you are. rcw1 has the tremendous respect for those that have a good go at it whatever their discipline, it doesn't matter a toss. Hope you all make millions !!!

A few things rcw1 is mindful of whether or not trading, investing or gambling:
You must:

Enjoy what you are doing;
Know what you are doing;
Always be honest with yourself;
Know when enough is enough, when to tactically withdraw; and
Make money

For mine there are three major differences between gambling and trading/investing.
1) Gambling is much more addictive; you have to be extremely careful not to be trapped by dependency;

2) With gambling (horse racing experiences) the probability of losing an investment is higher than the probability of winning more than the initial outlay; and

3) The adrenal rush is second to none when gambling, always.

Consequently, for mine, gambling (rcw1 punts on the horse races) carries the much greater risk. But … regardless, rcw1 luvs the challenge to pick winners and the adrenaline rushes that flow … in good times especially, but yes there are of course bad times.

rcw1 good news yarn:
Was at the track recently pockets loaded up with folded. Bookie been dealing with for ahh 40 odd years plus ... wasn't there, but his imbecile son was, who knows rcw1. We had a chat … about one of the locals about to jump, all too hard for lad, handed over mobile and said ring your father … What could he say … phone loaded with bookies name on speed dial ha ha ha ha

Anyways the lad rang … came back 30 seconds later said, Dad wants to talk to you ...hmmm rcw1 thought this one might just get over the line!!!

Done the deal over the phone there and then … cash and odds … handed the phone over to son … some nodding …

Anyways handed over 5 grand in $100 bills nicely folded $2500 each way on a horse …

About 20 or so minutes later rcw1 is standing in the bleachers … 100 M to go rcw1 select in a line with 3 other horses … There is no way in Australia would rcw1 feel the way rcw1 felt when it come home … trading a $5k stock or investing in a 5k stock …

The thing is … in rcw1 world … once the adrenaline had subsided and composure once again set in … rcw1 thought to himself … RichardHead … why praytell ... no balls!! even in gambling, a safe option, always a contingency … rcw1 should have put it all on the nose... it was there for the taking... all the evidence on the ground was there, but the realisation when all things considered, safest option with that amount of money was to limit the risk of loss and hope for some reward, some earn. rcw1 would argue, the same notion is applied as in trading and or investing, one way or another. Not always a good news story ... as is also the case whether one trades or invests....

The decision had been reached prior to the call to the bookie, as rcw1 never asked the bookie whether he was prepared to take $5K on the nose that those odds. Planning was there too, a desired course of action, based upon research in real time, as close to the race as was possible, just like one would when investing or in particular trading.

Read into that one what you will.

All the very best in 2024.

Kind regards
rcw1







Kind regards
rcw1

Skate.

As we close out another year
I'm taking a moment to reflect on my involvement in this thread and the lessons I've learned along the way. Transitioning from trading to investing has been a significant shift for me, and it's forced me to narrow my focus and prioritise the things that truly matter.

One of the key takeaways from my investment journey so far is the importance of dividend-paying companies. I've always been drawn to the idea of receiving regular income from my investments, and my brief was to find high-dividend paying companies that also offered franking credits and the potential for capital gains.

After much research and deliberation, I settled on six companies that met my criteria: ANZ, BHP, CBA, FMG, MFG, and WDS. These companies may not be the most exciting or sexy investments, but they are solid, reliable, and have a proven track record of delivering for shareholders.

My reasoning for selecting these particular companies was straightforward. I wanted to invest in businesses that I understood and that had a strong presence in the Australian and New Zealand markets. ANZ and CBA are the two largest banks in their respective countries, and BHP and FMG are leaders in the mining industry. MFG and WDS were a bit of a wildcard, but I believe they offered significant value and had the potential for strong capital gains.

I'm proud to say that my investment portfolio has performed well in the first 3 weeks, and I'm grateful for the early luck and timing of my decision. However, I'm also aware that no one wants to hear about how paint dries, so I'll limit my comments about my financial endeavours in the future.

To all, I wish you a happy and prosperous New Year. May your investments flourish and your dreams become a reality.

Skate.

Skate said:

As we close out another year
I'm taking a moment to reflect on my involvement in this thread and the lessons I've learned along the way. Transitioning from trading to investing has been a significant shift for me, and it's forced me to narrow my focus and prioritise the things that truly matter.

One of the key takeaways from my investment journey so far is the importance of dividend-paying companies. I've always been drawn to the idea of receiving regular income from my investments, and my brief was to find high-dividend paying companies that also offered franking credits and the potential for capital gains.

After much research and deliberation, I settled on six companies that met my criteria: ANZ, BHP, CBA, FMG, MFG, and WDS. These companies may not be the most exciting or sexy investments, but they are solid, reliable, and have a proven track record of delivering for shareholders.

My reasoning for selecting these particular companies was straightforward. I wanted to invest in businesses that I understood and that had a strong presence in the Australian and New Zealand markets. ANZ and CBA are the two largest banks in their respective countries, and BHP and FMG are leaders in the mining industry. MFG and WDS were a bit of a wildcard, but I believe they offered significant value and had the potential for strong capital gains.

I'm proud to say that my investment portfolio has performed well in the first 3 weeks, and I'm grateful for the early luck and timing of my decision. However, I'm also aware that no one wants to hear about how paint dries, so I'll limit my comments about my financial endeavours in the future.

To all, I wish you a happy and prosperous New Year. May your investments flourish and your dreams become a reality.

Skate.

Click to expand...

Take a look at CHC as a possible add to your portfolio, also maybe consider adding some VAS as a decent counter weight to your direct shares.

Skate said:

I'm taking a moment to reflect on my involvement in this thread and the lessons I've learned along the way. Transitioning from trading to investing has been a significant shift for me, and it's forced me to narrow my focus and prioritise the things that truly matter.

Click to expand...

not the reverse ??

the things that truly matter ( at least in the shorter term ) are more urgent than trading

i mean i don't foresee you having a New Year's Eve bonfire burning all your old trading books notes, and records ( or selling them on Ebay )

i think in a few years time you might revisit them with fresh eyes and maybe even an apprentice or two so you can refine and improve all those years of research and skills

qldfrog said:

They are not alone Mr @Skate
All eggs in 6 baskets?

Bhp one of them
share price when I started working for them mid 2000 was around $40 ( my manager was investing heavily in company sponsored shares so I remember)
It closed when the market is at its peak at $69 and was at $52 less than a year ago
So in just below 20y including a booming commodity market, credit expansion and non benign inflation that company that I highlight as I deeply know its flaws increased by less than 50 percent and divested it's jewels

Click to expand...

Mate, you need to check your facts, in mid 2000 BHP was $7.00per share, Not $40, and it’s paid $79.50 in dividends since then.

If your boss was investing in 2000 and held till now he has done wonderfully, earning himself a 13.8% annual return for the last 23 years and that’s if he just put his dividends under the mattress, if he reinvested dividends it would be closer to 20%.

You should have followed your boss, bought some BHP put it on the dividend reinvestment plan and just held. No doubt it would have outperformed your journeyman trading efforts over the last 20 years.

Also, BHP has never been $69 it’s at its all time high now at $50.41. Seriously mate are you even fact checking because your memory seems a bit off.

Value Collector said:

Take a look at CHC as a possible add to your portfolio, also maybe consider adding some VAS as a decent counter weight to your direct shares.

Click to expand...

@Value Collector, I should have reached out before I made my snap decision. I had been keenly focused on companies that would provide a sustainable income. At this stage, I'm happy with my initial selection but will be looking to add to my investment portfolio and your suggestions have provided a pathway for doing this, thank you.

Skate.

Skate said:

@Value Collector, I should have reached out before I made my snap decision. I had been keenly focused on companies that would provide a sustainable income. At this stage, I'm happy with my initial selection but will be looking to add to my investment portfolio and your suggestions have provided a pathway for doing this, thank you.

Skate.

Click to expand...

i worked out early in my investing adventure , there is just one person who has to justify decision , and that is the face in your mirror ( sure family count , but it is you that pulls the buy/sell trigger )

you planted your acorn three weeks back now let's see how it grows

cheers

Value Collector said:

also maybe consider adding some VAS

Click to expand...

Distribution history of VAS. While it may fluctuate it has paid a quarterly distribution since it was listed in 2009.


Same with STW which I held from 2002 until I swapped to VAS*.


* Still think that was a silly move on my part. Why I did it, I really don't know. Maybe I thought it was a great idea at the time but I doubt my current financial situation would be all that different if I stuck with STW.

Skate said:

As we close out another year
I'm taking a moment to reflect on my involvement in this thread and the lessons I've learned along the way. Transitioning from trading to investing has been a significant shift for me, and it's forced me to narrow my focus and prioritise the things that truly matter.

One of the key takeaways from my investment journey so far is the importance of dividend-paying companies. I've always been drawn to the idea of receiving regular income from my investments, and my brief was to find high-dividend paying companies that also offered franking credits and the potential for capital gains.

After much research and deliberation, I settled on six companies that met my criteria: ANZ, BHP, CBA, FMG, MFG, and WDS. These companies may not be the most exciting or sexy investments, but they are solid, reliable, and have a proven track record of delivering for shareholders.

My reasoning for selecting these particular companies was straightforward. I wanted to invest in businesses that I understood and that had a strong presence in the Australian and New Zealand markets. ANZ and CBA are the two largest banks in their respective countries, and BHP and FMG are leaders in the mining industry. MFG and WDS were a bit of a wildcard, but I believe they offered significant value and had the potential for strong capital gains.

I'm proud to say that my investment portfolio has performed well in the first 3 weeks, and I'm grateful for the early luck and timing of my decision. However, I'm also aware that no one wants to hear about how paint dries, so I'll limit my comments about my financial endeavours in the future.

To all, I wish you a happy and prosperous New Year. May your investments flourish and your dreams become a reality.

Skate.

Click to expand...

Well Professor Skate without your valuable input in the ASF we as a collective bunch would be a lot worse off.
So I thankyou sincerely for what you have to say and wish you a happy New Year and prosperous one also of course.

Skate said:

@vinvest, I encourage you to take a look at the "Dump it here" thread as a starting point for your trading journey. The thread has been active since 2018, and @debtfree recently shared some impressive stats, including over a million views.

Click to expand...

In @vinvest thread today, I posted about some trading principles and challenges. Trading is an exciting endeavour that offers financial opportunities. However, it is important to approach trading with a solid foundation of knowledge and skills to increase the chances of success. One popular approach within technical analysis is trend following. By identifying and following trends, traders aim to capitalise on market momentum and make profitable trading decisions.

It is important to acknowledge that unrealistic expectations can be detrimental to trading success. Many traders fail because they underestimate the competitive nature of the market and the intelligence of other participants. Recognising that trading is not an even playing field can help traders set realistic goals and focus on continuous improvement.

Skate.

To re-invigorate @vinvest back into the world of trading I intend to encourage him to dust off Amibroker and give it a whirl. I know that you've used it in the past and found it to be a bit clunky, but I want to assure you that it's come a long way since then. With a little practice and patience, I'm confident that you'll find it to be a powerful and user-friendly platform for technical analysis and trading.

To demonstrate its capabilities, I've included some examples of backtests that you can run using Amibroker. These tests were conducted using historical data from 2023, and they showcase the program's ability to identify precise entries and exits. By analysing the price chart and applying various technical indicators, you can gain valuable insights into market trends and make informed trading decisions.

2023 Backtest
A backtest provides a comprehensive picture of a trading strategy's capabilities, showcasing vital metrics and performance indicators. The backtest report includes 64 trades, with 4 Take Profit Stops, 23 Trailing Stops, and 27 Stale Stops.

If you're unsure about any of these terms or metrics, a simple search using the keyword "Skate" will give you a clear and concise explanation. Additionally, the system percentage drawdown is a critical metric that I recommend paying close attention to. It offers valuable insights into the strategy's risk management and potential for profitability.

By analysing this metric, you can gain a better understanding of the strategy's overall performance and make informed decisions about its effectiveness.



Skate.

We have all said it in hindsight
We've all said it, "If only I had brought it here and sold it there." But instead of just saying it, I'm doing something about it. I'm coding and testing my ideas to see if they work.

For example
Take a look at the backtest above. It includes some interesting trades. Looking at the charts below, you might find yourself wondering where you should have taken a buy position and where you should have hopped off the ride.

Well, that's exactly what I try to figure out and code it. By using historical data and testing different scenarios, I'm able to get a better sense of what works and what doesn't. It's not always easy, but it's a process that's well worth it in the end.





Skate's Trend Momentum Strategy
My "Trend Momentum Strategy" has been designed to identify potential trading opportunities. With precisely coded instructions, the strategy displays clear buy and sell signals on the price chart. Are they perfect? Of course not, but they're good enough to help you carve out a few dollars in the market.





Another example
Marked and non-marked price chart of (ASX:LAU)




Marked Price Chart (ASX:LAU)
With the buy and sell are displayed on the price chart.



Skate.

Here is a chart that should hold interest (XAO)
My trading strategy relies on a "Buy Timing Filter" that zeroes in on the most promising time to buy, even in the most turbulent markets. The chart is the All Ordinaries, the only Index I trade.

The "Buy Timing Filter" is designed to only display buy signals when the market is advancing, helping me avoid costly mistakes and maximise my potential profits. And the best part? When the "Buy Filter" is ON, the lower ribbon turns a bright green, making it easy to spot the perfect entry points.

Of course, no trading strategy is foolproof, but my "Buy Filter" has proven to be a valuable tool in my arsenal. It's helped me navigate even the most unpredictable market conditions with confidence and precision.




Skate.