Dump it Here

MovingAverage said:

100% agree with your sentiment. This thread used to be good several years ago but has well and truly run out of steam and is devoid of serious insight. It has just become a thread for "inspirational quotes" in a quest for likes.

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Totally disagree! As someone trying to learn about the market and the many pitfalls involved I find this thread very valuable and very much appreciate the time Skate puts into explaining the many sides of trading.

If you don't need it - don't read it.....simples! But there are many that derive much value from this thread. Thank you Skate!

Skate said:

Sometimes you feel like dumping stuff & this thread might be the perfect place.

Helping Others
You might want to dump stuff here to help others

Unload
You might want to unload & dump something off your chest

Gems
You might even want to dump some gems here

Let it go
Sometimes you can't let somethings go till you dump it on paper

Dump it here
If you want to dump it, dump it here

Skate.

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The Best Place to Start is From the BEGINNING IMHO
I would love your Summary

Captain_Chaza said:

I would love your Summary

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The "Dump it here" thread
@Captain_Chaza you are correct to reference my first post as this thread was created specifically for members to pass on helpful information to others in a positive and supportive environment.

Whether you're looking to vent or share a trading idea this is the place to do it. By sharing your experiences and engaging with others, you'll not only gain valuable insights but also help stimulate participation from other traders.

Skate.

Skate said:

In summary, trading requires a combination of technical analysis skills, a solid foundation of trading principles, and the ability to navigate the challenges that arise.

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"The 'Dump it here' thread has evolved
I believe that by sharing multiple approaches to trading, we can inspire each other to refine our strategies and extract profits from this emotionally charged game. I practice what I preach, and my trading has had a few rollercoaster moments. I've been fortunate to have had some successful trading ideas, but I still face daily challenges in my quest to improve my skills.

Quick trading update
The current 2023/2024 financial year started strong, but August brought me back down to earth. However, September and November proved that perseverance pays off. December is going in the right direction at this stage.

Sharing is caring
I hope that by sharing my experiences, I contribute in a small way to our community.




December Outlook
At this early stage, a Christmas rally "might" be in the cards. Fingers crossed



Skate.

Skate.

Skate said:

View attachment 166797

Skate.

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I wish I could say that I was there, usually I think that I am there but just when I think that I'm safe in the water, I get too relaxed and then find myself getting bit anxious about a situation that I find myself in, a situation that I know that I shouldn't have let myself get into. The markets are continually changing and if you get too relaxed it can lead to a slight change not being noticed.

peter2 said:

The doomsayers are all predicting a dire 2024. That's going to be fun.
I'm anticipating more of the same ol'grind as we'll remain in this range for another year.

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@peter2 seems to have a somewhat cautious perspective regarding the market’s potential in 2024. It’s entirely reasonable to feel this uncertainty, considering the inherently volatile nature of trading where market sentiment alone can spin the market on a dime.

However, trading decisions should be based on thorough research and a well-defined strategy. By maintaining a positive mindset and sticking to a disciplined approach, traders can successfully navigate the market’s inherent unpredictability.

Skate.

Skate said:

@peter2 seems to have a somewhat cautious perspective regarding the market’s potential in 2024. It’s entirely reasonable to feel this uncertainty, considering the inherently volatile nature of trading where market sentiment alone can spin the market on a dime.

However, trading decisions should be based on thorough research and a well-defined strategy. By maintaining a positive mindset and sticking to a disciplined approach, traders can successfully navigate the market’s inherent unpredictability.

Skate.

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Morning Mr Skate,

So Peter2 is expressing conservatism around the bullishness of the market into 2024. Whether he is right or wrong is immaterial. The point I think is to have a bias based on analysis.

What form of analysis? Whatever you have the most confidence in.

Now you are probably the most vocal of the mechanical traders on ASF. I was reading through from the start of this thread yesterday.



The blue box corresponds with the EWA and 2016-2019 time period.

Market up, strategy up. Market dips, strategy dips.

More recently:



Again, a similar sort of correlation....save for the fact that your equity curve went to a high, while the market did not.

You are squeezing just enough juice out of the green patches of market action to stay positive in a pretty choppy market.

Contrasted with the 2016-2019 strategy which had a far easier market, you seem to have improved (adapted) the strategy. So congrats.

So a couple of questions:

(i) How different is the 2016 strategy from the 2023 strategy? Substantial or minor?
(ii) Given that your strategies more or less mirror the market, tightening up on exits has been the difference?

Assuming for the moment positive answers to those 2 questions, can we conclude that your overall market view changed? That this overall view has driven the modifications to the strategies?

With 3 basic market patterns: (a) outright bull, (b) outright bear and (c) sideways choppy, your strategy should be good to go for (a) and (c). How about (b)?

If we were to get a similar market to 2008-2009?



Would you squeeze enough juice out of the green? Assuming that the answer is again a yes, then:

(i) Would the system be in drawdown (probably);
(ii) How bad do you think it would be;
(iii) How long do you think it would last?

The drawdown is 1 element of testing the trader's resolve and psychology and belief in his system. The second element is how long that drawdown lasts. Duration is psychologically incredibly draining on the individual.

Which completes the circle with Peter2's comments on expectations going forward. I would argue (as Peter2 has) that an expectation going into 2024 is prudent if you have a tool belt and not simply a hammer.


jog on
duc

ducati916 said:

Morning Mr Skate,

So Peter2 is expressing conservatism around the bullishness of the market into 2024. Whether he is right or wrong is immaterial. The point I think is to have a bias based on analysis.

What form of analysis? Whatever you have the most confidence in.

Now you are probably the most vocal of the mechanical traders on ASF. I was reading through from the start of this thread yesterday.

View attachment 166911View attachment 166912

The blue box corresponds with the EWA and 2016-2019 time period.

Market up, strategy up. Market dips, strategy dips.

More recently:

View attachment 166910View attachment 166909

Again, a similar sort of correlation....save for the fact that your equity curve went to a high, while the market did not.

You are squeezing just enough juice out of the green patches of market action to stay positive in a pretty choppy market.

Contrasted with the 2016-2019 strategy which had a far easier market, you seem to have improved (adapted) the strategy. So congrats.

So a couple of questions:

(i) How different is the 2016 strategy from the 2023 strategy? Substantial or minor?
(ii) Given that your strategies more or less mirror the market, tightening up on exits has been the difference?

Assuming for the moment positive answers to those 2 questions, can we conclude that your overall market view changed? That this overall view has driven the modifications to the strategies?

With 3 basic market patterns: (a) outright bull, (b) outright bear and (c) sideways choppy, your strategy should be good to go for (a) and (c). How about (b)?

If we were to get a similar market to 2008-2009?

View attachment 166913

Would you squeeze enough juice out of the green? Assuming that the answer is again a yes, then:

(i) Would the system be in drawdown (probably);
(ii) How bad do you think it would be;
(iii) How long do you think it would last?

The drawdown is 1 element of testing the trader's resolve and psychology and belief in his system. The second element is how long that drawdown lasts. Duration is psychologically incredibly draining on the individual.

Which completes the circle with Peter2's comments on expectations going forward. I would argue (as Peter2 has) that an expectation going into 2024 is prudent if you have a tool belt and not simply a hammer.


jog on
duc

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@ducati916 thank you for your thoughtful response and for sharing your insights.

To answer your first question, I would say that my strategies have evolved significantly since 2016. While the core principles remain the same, I have made numerous adjustments and improvements over time, particularly in response to changing market conditions. For example, I have refined my entry and exit criteria, incorporated new indicators, and optimised my risk management techniques. These modifications have allowed me to adapt to different market environments and improve my overall performance.

Regarding your second question, I believe tightening up on the exits which ultimately makes the money has been a key factor in my improved performance. By being more disciplined with my exit strategy, I have been able to minimise my losses and maximise my gains, particularly during choppy market conditions.

In terms of my overall market view, I would say that it has evolved over time as well. While I still believe in the power of trend following, I have come to appreciate the importance of adapting to different market environments. For example, during the 2016-2019 period, the market was generally trending upward, which made it easier to trade. However, in 2023, the market has been choppier, requiring a more nuanced approach.

Regarding your hypothetical scenario of a 2008-2009 style market crash, it's difficult to say how my strategies would perform in such a scenario. However, I believe that my focus on risk management and adaptability would serve me well. I have incorporated various risk management techniques into my strategies, such as a multi-level exit plan, which helps me to mitigate potential losses. Additionally, I have developed a system for assessing market conditions and adjusting my strategies accordingly, which would allow me to adapt to changing market dynamics.

In terms of drawdowns, I believe that they are an inevitable part of trading and a test of a trader's resolve and psychology. While I can't predict the future or guarantee that my strategies will never experience large drawdowns, I have worked to develop a system that can weather such events and emerge stronger on the other side.

Finally, I agree with you and Peter2 that having a tool belt and not simply a hammer is essential for successful trading. My goal has always been to develop a versatile trading system that can adapt to different market environments and capitalise on a wide range of opportunities.

Skate.

Captain_Chaza said:

I accept that Repetition may be your Strength in this very difficult teaching process

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Confessions of a Hobby Trader
Just when you start to believe you are a rockstar the market has an unkind way of bringing you back to reality. When you let complacency enter your mindset you will keep doing what you are doing until you make a conscious decision to pivot.



The Hybrid Strategy
I'm proud of my Hybrid Strategy, which has evolved significantly since its inception in July 2015. In February 2020, COVID-19 forced the Hybrid strategy into cash. With no trading, it afforded me the time to refresh the Hybrid strategy and adapt it more in line with changing market conditions.

During the period from March 2020 to July 2021, everything I touched seemed to turn to gold. I felt like a god, with the strategy performing exceptionally well. However, the next 12 months were challenging. I became too aggressive finding out that my "Index Filter" lost its effectiveness.

As the new 2022-2023 financial year began, I shifted my focus from a profit-driven strategy to a drawdown-driven strategy. I slowly realised when profits drove the strategy, "risk" was being pushed into the background. To address this, I added a new filter to the buy condition. Incorporating a "Percentage Up" buy filter made an immediate positive impact. At the same time, all my efforts went into formulating a "multi-dimensional exit strategy", which also improved the strategy's performance.

While my Hybrid Strategy is still a work in progress, I'm proud of the progress I've made and the lessons I've learned along the way. I'm committed to continuing to refine and improve it, to achieve even better results in the future.

Skate.

Being fooled by the randomness of the markets
When trading is going well, it's easy to fall into the trap of believing that your strategy is infallible. You start to think that all the effort you've put into developing your trading plan has paid off and that you've finally cracked the code to consistent profits. But the truth is, the markets are inherently random, and success in trend-following trading requires the ability to endure temporary setbacks while waiting for your portfolio to grow.

The key to success in trend-following trading lies not only in being right but also in being patient. It's easy to get swept up in the excitement of a winning streak, but it's crucial to remember that the markets are inherently unpredictable and can shift rapidly. This is why a well-defined exit strategy is essential, as it helps to mitigate risk and ensure that you're prepared for any unexpected market fluctuations.

Skate.

peter2 said:

I'm anticipating more of the same ol'grind as we'll remain in this range for another year.

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@peter2 Chart below is the Perfect Example
Charts tell a story, one that unfolds in the past. We've all been guilty of gazing at a chart and thinking, "If only I had entered here and here." For me, that's exactly what I did, and finding that elusive correlation became an all-consuming quest.

Peters chart
The yellow arrow displays "the start of a trend".




The Percentage Up Filter is a powerful tool that works in real-time
In my chart, I've highlighted the correlation between the market and my trading strategy using yellow arrows. As you can see, the chart is heavily marked, indicating that the strategy and market are closely aligned. This means that by only entering positions when the lower ribbon is green, there is a significant chance of success.



Skate.

Successful trading is not merely a game of chance
But rather the use of technical analysis to identify entry and exit points, increasing the probability of successful trades.

The Gyrations of the All-Ordinaries Index
Each gyration presents a unique opportunity. Capturing them presents the problem.



Market gyrations can kill a good strategy
Are you tired of using the same old trading strategy that doesn't adapt to changing market conditions? I know I was. That's why I created a dynamic trading methodology that combines three different trend-following strategies, each with its own set of parameters and filters. This approach allows the strategy to adapt to different market conditions, but I didn't stop there.

I wanted to take this idea even further. What if we could create a trading strategy that can switch between different parameters, settings, and functions based on market sentiment? This would allow a strategy to adapt to changing market conditions in real-time.

The benefits of this approach are twofold. First, it allows the strategy to adapt to changing market conditions without having to manually adjust the strategy. Second, it tries to maximise trading potential by using the most appropriate indicators and parameters for the current market conditions.

In summary, switching parameters, settings, and functions can be a powerful way to adapt to changing market conditions. Combining this approach can create a trading strategy that is both flexible and effective.

Skate.

Skate said:

During the period from March 2020 to July 2021, everything I touched seemed to turn to gold. I felt like a god, with the strategy performing exceptionally well. However, the next 12 months were challenging.

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indeed , although not a trader with cash in the war-chest ( and the tolerance of red oozing pools in the held assets ) it did seem like that for me also , it could easily have led to false confidence in the two years after .

regarding your disappearing post ( which appeared briefly between my two )

yes i understood the effort needed to be successful and the need for a reliable communications network and decided i should try a different strategy , less exciting to be sure , but then these days my risk tolerance is lower than last decade

Purely rhetorical as my system money is 0 pending the never coming sale of the farm:
As you stress the exit strategy importance:
You still carry a weekly system, but are you now considering a price/volume/index driven exit before the end of the week?
A stop loss for example which can automated as well?
I always thought it was a bit weird to wait for potentially a full week of falls before entering a sell order.
But it is true that when I tried to emulate mid week exit, the results were not that different..but this was also tested on a less choppy market

divs4ever said:

regarding your disappearing post ( which appeared briefly between my two )

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I deleted my post for a simple reason - no one likes to read lengthy boring posts.

To shorten the post, I'll just display a summary of the strategy's performance in an easy-to-read format. The average profit per trade is relatively low because I'm looking to minimise the risk with this strategy. As I get older risk becomes the most important aspect of my trading.

Trend Momentum Strategy - $100k Portfolio
Total profit: $28,436.75
58 trades
Average profit per trade: $490.29
Winning percentage: 58%
Win/loss ratio: 1.41 (58 wins, 41 losses)
System Drawdown -3.73%
Maximum drawdown: -$4,751.89

Exits
3 Take Profit Stops
28 Stale Stops
20 Trailing Stops

Skate.

qldfrog said:

Purely rhetorical as my system money is 0 pending the never coming sale of the farm:
As you stress the exit strategy importance:
You still carry a weekly system, but are you now considering a price/volume/index driven exit before the end of the week?
A stop loss for example which can automated as well?
I always thought it was a bit weird to wait for potentially a full week of falls before entering a sell order.
But it is true that when I tried to emulate mid week exit, the results were not that different..but this was also tested on a less choppy market

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@qldfrog sorry for the confusion. I was referring to a "Weekly Strategy" with entries and exits in Monday's pre-auction. There is no interference as I take the signals being presented at the end of trade Friday.

Skate.

Skate said:

@qldfrog sorry for the confusion. I was referring to a "Weekly Strategy" with entries and exits in Monday's pre-auction. There is no interference as I take the signals being presented at the end of trade Friday.

Skate.

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No confusion but you have not considered since started, let's say a stop loss exit that you would set on Mondays and valid anytime during the week?

qldfrog said:

No confusion but you have not considered since started, let's say a stop loss exit that you would set on Mondays and valid anytime during the week?

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@qldfrog I firmly adhere to my established routine and refrain from making any moves mid-week. Through extensive experimentation with various scenarios, I've found that deviating from this approach only scratches the surface. Consistently adhering to my trading rules and strategy has proven to be highly advantageous for my overall trading performance so far.

Skate.