Dump it Here

ducati916 said:

Or is now an evolutionary system falling within the definition of 'mechanical'?

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one would suspect the growing popularity of AI trending toward evolutionary with all those potential flaws or enhancements

ducati916 said:

1. The person aspiring to be a trader/investor, must have an insatiable desire/motivation/interest in financial markets.

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as an investor i think that insatiable desire must be tempered with some caution and a willingness to take ( at least some ) profit when things look like going crazy well ,
also while having a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing , knowing everything about everything can make some decisions difficult , when an instinctive reaction is needed

one needs to see the rewards as well as the risks ( and when a sudden shock is an opportunity , but also when it is a trap )

I couldn't agree more
A big thank you to @DaveTrade, @ducati916 and @divs4ever for sharing their valuable insights on what it takes to be a successful trader. Their comments highlight the importance of having a well-thought-out methodology, understanding one's own psychology, and being patient.

In addition to these factors, having a solid trading strategy and trading plan is also crucial for success. Discipline and emotional control are essential for sticking to the plan and avoiding impulsive decisions. Effective risk management is another key aspect of successful trading.

In summary, successful traders possess a combination of all the above, discipline, risk management skills, adaptability, capital management, and a commitment to continuous learning.

Skate.

I feel as if I have more to say (expanded explanation)
Successful traders often have a combination of skills, knowledge, and habits that help them achieve their goals. Here are some factors that I believe can contribute to a trader's success.

Market knowledge and understanding
Successful traders have a deep understanding of the markets they trade in, including the factors that affect price movements, trends, and market sentiment.

Trading strategy and plan
A well-thought-out trading strategy and trading plan can help traders make informed decisions, manage risk, and maximise profits. This includes setting clear goals, risk management strategies, and identifying profitable trading opportunities. Many successful traders use technical analysis to identify trends and repeatable patterns.

Discipline and emotional control
Discipline and emotional control are crucial for traders. They need to stick to their trading plan, avoid impulsive decisions, and manage their emotions during times of market volatility.

Risk management
Successful traders manage risk effectively, using techniques such as multiple exit strategies, and position sizing to minimise potential losses.

Adaptability
Markets are constantly changing, and successful traders adapt quickly to new market conditions. They are able to adjust their strategies to suit different market environments.

Money management
Effective money management is critical for successful traders. They need to manage their capital, to ensure they have sufficient money to take advantage of trading opportunities.

Continuous learning
Successful traders continuously educate themselves, staying up-to-date with market trends, news, and analysis. They also learn from their mistakes and adjust their strategies accordingly.

These are just a few of the factors that can contribute to a trader's success. Of course, each trader's approach will vary, and it's important to find a trading method that works best for you.

Skate.

Trading in a nutshell
Instead of making a lengthy post, I should have just said that trading requires a combination of technical analysis skills, a solid foundation of trading principles, and the ability to navigate the challenges that arise. By understanding the principles of developing a trading plan, and managing emotions and expectations, traders can enhance their chances of success in the dynamic and exciting world of trading.

Skate.

You lot remind me of another lot...

frugal.rock said:

You lot remind me of another lot...

12 Famous Philosophers and Their Guiding Principles - Invaluable

We explore some of the most influential philosophers, their schools of thought, and how we can learn from their forward-thinking approach.

www.invaluable.com

Click to expand...

@frugal.rock, thank you for providing and highlighting the key principles and ideas of each philosopher mentioned. Your contribution is greatly appreciated.

Skate.

divs4ever said:

as an investor i think that insatiable desire must be tempered with some caution and a willingness to take ( at least some ) profit when things look like going crazy well ,
also while having a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing , knowing everything about everything can make some decisions difficult , when an instinctive reaction is needed

one needs to see the rewards as well as the risks ( and when a sudden shock is an opportunity , but also when it is a trap )

Click to expand...

It is not an insatiable desire to trade, it is an insatiable curiosity on how markets trade/function/operate.

It is unlikely that anyone will know everything about everything. However, knowing the fundamental principles of the big ideas is within range of most if they apply themselves. That advice came from Charlie Munger.

Instinctive reactions.

Should never be required. That is the way to trouble. This whole field is covered in great detail by behavioural economics. The two giants in the field being Tversky & Kahneman. I'm sure you will have heard of them. Probably even read some/most of their ideas. Instinct or heuristics are a very dangerous place to be in financial markets.

While reward is why we are in the financial markets, RISK is the first and foremost consideration.



Patience can be a learned skill. Longer, secular timeframes require significant patience. Longer, secular timeframes can compound smaller capital positions into huge positions. Risk is far better controlled. Small(er) risk, larger reward. Risk management is subject to epiphenomenalism. This is again, IMO, vastly under-appreciated.

At the other extreme, daytrading requires huge leverage, to turn a tiny move % wise into meaningful dollars. The action is frenetic. For most it is a very stressful endeavour (eventually) if not from day 1.

The key here is to become so good within your niche, that you gain access to OPM to trade for your own account, taking a % of the winnings.

Daytrading leverage is what, x3 your capital?
It gets interesting when the practical result is x100 or x1000+ your capital.

I know CFD's allow huge leverage. However the nature of their construction is useless for risk management.

Risk tolerance is something that cannot be learned/trained. It also changes over time. 25yrs ago when I started trading, I was a daytrader. Today I trade positions that last 1yr+. My point being: risk tolerance (usually) recedes with age. If you exceed your risk tolerance, it will end badly. Novice traders (always) overestimate their risk tolerance.

True risk assumed (taken on) is the measurement between noise and signal with a 15% return at 10% volatility. At 1yr the probability of success (signal, not noise) is 93%. At 1 day/hour/minute/second it is a gradation of 50%. The shorter the timeframe, the more noise you will need to endure. Noise is what plays havoc with (your) risk tolerance.

An observation of @Skate recent paper trading methodologies: there was some discussion around 'profit targets' and closing out trades once a profit target was reached. Absolutely the right approach in a bear market. Wrong in a bull market. Given that we are in a bear market, the right strategy. Once we return to a bull, that rule could (should) be amended.



I thought that this was an interesting post.

The question rather ties into the discussion above.

Does a daily routine/habit encourage short term trading through the temptation/excitement of entering/exiting trades? Or can one divorce oneself from the temptation of over-trading and simply undertake research, thereby maintaining ones connection with (interest in) the markets?

Personally I like to be engaged with the market everyday. That does not mean I am trading positions everyday. I am researching the secular trends and forces that are evolving in the markets.

One major theme that has become increasingly obvious is: the market history of bonds. The bull market in bonds has stretched back 40+yrs. Very few if any traders/investors were trading when this bull market started in 1982/83. The bull market has ingrained a reflex into institutional traders re. bonds, particularly at the long end. This is interesting. Which is why I tend to post on it rather regularly atm.

My point being: you can engage with the market on a daily basis, without needing to trade on a daily basis. Unless you are a gifted daytrader, really you should avoid short term trading altogether.

A long post.

jog on
duc

divs4ever said:

as an investor i think that insatiable desire must be tempered with some caution and a willingness to take ( at least some ) profit when things look like going crazy well

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When others share their thoughts and experiences on the importance of risk management in trading, it adds value for everyone, whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out. @divs4ever stresses the importance of exercising caution and taking profits when the going is good, rather than getting swept up in the excitement of the market and taking on excessive risk.

On the other hand, @ducati916 offers a different perspective, highlighting the value of being willing to take calculated risks in order to achieve greater rewards. By engaging in a discussion and considering multiple viewpoints, traders can enhance their understanding of the complexities involved in making informed trading decisions.

Skate.

ducati916 said:

Patience can be a learned skill. Longer, secular timeframes require significant patience. Risk is far better controlled. Risk tolerance is something that cannot be learned/trained. It also changes over time. Closing out trades once a profit target was reached. Absolutely the right approach in a bear market. Wrong in a bull market. Given that we are in a bear market, the right strategy. Once we return to a bull, that rule could (should) be amended.

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@ducati916, I couldn't agree more. Patience is indeed a learned skill that is essential for traders who want to succeed and, as you mentioned, risk tolerance is something that cannot be learned, as it's uniquely built into each trader.

In my own trading journey, I've come to realise the importance of having a flexible trading strategy that can adapt to changing market conditions. That's why I now use a "TakeProfit" stop, which allows me to lock in profits at a certain level.

In my opinion, the key to successful trading is having a well-thought-out trading plan and strategy, and the discipline to stick to that strategy even when it's challenging. Being adaptable and taking a patient, disciplined approach, allows me to maximise profits and minimise my losses.

I think it's important to remember that no two traders are the same, and what works for one trader may not work for another. That's why it's crucial to continuously learn and adapt and to always be willing to make adjustments to your thinking process as needed. I'm always eager to learn from others to improve my own trading skills.

Skate.

Trading consumes me, but it's a double-edged sword
On one hand, it offers the thrill of potential rewards, but on the other, it also presents frustrating unpredictability and the risk of significant losses. The disparity between logical expectations and the harsh reality of the market is a major challenge that can be difficult "for all of us" to navigate.

However, with the right approach, trading can be incredibly rewarding
Trading requires a healthy bank balance, mental fortitude, and a well-thought-out risk management strategy to overcome the frustration that comes with the ups and downs of trading. By being prepared and staying focused, traders can achieve long-term success in this exciting and challenging field. It's also important to realise that "preparation and focus", are key to success in trading.

Skate.

Skate said:

Trading consumes me, but it's a double-edged sword
On one hand, it offers the thrill of potential rewards, but on the other, it also presents frustrating unpredictability and the risk of significant losses. The disparity between logical expectations and the harsh reality of the market is a major challenge that can be difficult "for all of us" to navigate.

However, with the right approach, trading can be incredibly rewarding
Trading requires a healthy bank balance, mental fortitude, and a well-thought-out risk management strategy to overcome the frustration that comes with the ups and downs of trading. By being prepared and staying focused, traders can achieve long-term success in this exciting and challenging field. It's also important to realise that "preparation and focus", are key to success in trading.

Skate.

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Hello Skate
Belief, respect and honesty are real good ‘start’ points / qualities to possess, right to the end … and into the grave ha ha ha. In more ways than one!!

You need to be a good person to boot, have ‘one’s own house ‘ in order, and carry oneself with dignity when under extreme pressure …when your world is about to cave in … there in lies the key to unlock self doubt. Good ol fashioned … decorum, ‘cool hand Luke’ in good times and in bad. Won’t necessarily change that specific outcome but makes you a stronger person and more resilient to go back into the field of battle and win. that pot of gold time and time again. Have fun knowing you have beaten the system and done something real special.

rcw1 thoughts.

Anyways, have a very nice Sunday Skate, have missed your punting comments in that punting thread

Kind regards
rcw1

divs4ever said:

...
also while having a little knowledge can be a dangerous thing , knowing everything about everything can make some decisions difficult , when an instinctive reaction is needed

...

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Good afternoon @divs4ever
Happy Sunday bloke.

You raise, for mine, a very good point here. rcw1 is guessing, it all depends on what level of risk you are prepared to accept. On the balance though, does procrastination, (a very strong word), on the pretense to risk!! limit opportunity??? Suggest that sometimes, experience and cunning, may well have a bearing on whether or not a trader makes that trade by joining the dots themselves rather than missing a damn good opportunity. If one pulls it off, then three ticks ; if not... hmm could well be on a hiding to nothing...
and put it down to experience ha ha ha ha ha and onto that next trade

Have a very nice day, today.

Kind regards
rcw1

frugal.rock said:

You lot remind me of another lot...

12 Famous Philosophers and Their Guiding Principles - Invaluable

We explore some of the most influential philosophers, their schools of thought, and how we can learn from their forward-thinking approach.

www.invaluable.com

Click to expand...

Good afternoon @frugal.rock
As rcw1 was scolling down reading this post... I kinda was left disappointed ....

How so?? you may well inquire ..

Cause you left out the important one ... the most contemporary. frugal.rock himorher self... ha ha ha rcw1 cracks himself up all the time

Kind regards
rcw1

edit: fix a spelling error...

Twitter post


Exploring the Impact of an "Index Filter" on System Trading Performance
As a trader, I'm always looking for ways to improve my trading strategies. Today, I came across a Twitter feed discussing the use of an "Index Filter" (Regime filter) versus trading using "No Index Filter," which sparked my interest in exploring its potential impact on trading performance.

In this post
I'll share my findings from a backtest comparing the results of trading with an "Index Filter" versus trading with "NO" Index Filter - as well as the results using a "Buy Filter" instead of an Index Filter. Apologies in advance for the size of the backtest comparison capture below.

Defining a Regime Filter
Before we dive into the backtest, let's first define what a regime filter is. Essentially, it's a tool used to identify and filter out certain market conditions. An "Index Filter" is simply an "ON-OFF" switch that determines when a buy position can be generated. By applying a regime filter, a trader can avoid entering trades during unfavourable market conditions, which can help improve trading performance.

Backtesting Results (1/1/2023 to 27/11/2023)
To test the effectiveness of a regime filter, I ran a backtest using one of my trading strategies with three variations: one with a regime filter, one without, and a third using a "Buy Filter" instead. The results were quite fascinating. The backtest showed that the version with the regime filter outperformed the version without it, hands down. But that's not all - the version using a "Buy Filter" instead of a "regime filter" showed even more impressive results.

Why a Regime Filter Makes a Difference
In my opinion, it's because the filter helps to eliminate trades that are likely to be unprofitable due to unfavourable market conditions. By doing so, it helps improve the overall trading performance by reducing the number of negative trades.

Improving Upon the Filter
Of course, there's always room for improvement. I encourage everyone to experiment with different filters and see what works best for your trading strategy. Perhaps you'll find that a different type of filter, such as a "Buy Filter," works even better. The key is to keep testing and refining your approach until you find what works best for you.

# Click on the backtest report to expand



Skate.

PHEW!
What a lot of Waffle this thread has become

Words, Words and Words and Nothing More than words

Does somebody here get paid by Words?

My Advice is SIMPLE! ! To Each and Everyone of Us

Respect your Success in climbing the LADDER and then remove the LADDER

It is as Simple as That!

Salute and Gods' speed

Captain_Chaza said:

Yes! you did offend me
I don't take rejection all that well

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@Captain_Chaza, it's important to remember that this forum is a community with a diverse range of members who have different levels of involvement and interests.

Creating content and sharing experiences on this forum is similar to practising a religion. While some members are deeply invested and actively engaged, others may be less involved.

We all create content based on our individual experiences, hoping that others may find value in the knowledge we share from our perspectives.

It's important to remember that the value of our content is not defined by the number of words but by the perceived quality of the content and the potential impact, it may have on others that truly matters.

It's possible that some members may not engage as they may not have found it relevant to their interests.

Rather than focusing on the number of words I use, it's important to remember that respecting others is a two-way street. We should strive to support and uplift each other, while also recognising that we all have different paths to success. I hope this helps to provide a different perspective on the situation.

Skate.

Skate said:

@Captain_Chaza, it's important to remember that this forum is a community with a diverse range of members who have different levels of involvement and interests.

Creating content and sharing experiences on this forum is similar to practising a religion. While some members are deeply invested and actively engaged, others may be less involved.

We all create content based on our individual experiences, hoping that others may find value in the knowledge we share from our perspectives.

It's important to remember that the value of our content is not defined by the number of words but by the perceived quality of the content and the potential impact, it may have on others that truly matters.

It's possible that some members may not engage as they may not have found it relevant to their interests.

Rather than focusing on the number of words I use, it's important to remember that respecting others is a two-way street. We should strive to support and uplift each other, while also recognising that we all have different paths to success. I hope this helps to provide a different perspective on the situation.

Skate.

Click to expand...

Skate said:

@Captain_Chaza, it's important to remember that this forum is a community with a diverse range of members who have different levels of involvement and interests.

Creating content and sharing experiences on this forum is similar to practising a religion. While some members are deeply invested and actively engaged, others may be less involved.

We all create content based on our individual experiences, hoping that others may find value in the knowledge we share from our perspectives.

It's important to remember that the value of our content is not defined by the number of words but by the perceived quality of the content and the potential impact, it may have on others that truly matters.

It's possible that some members may not engage as they may not have found it relevant to their interests.

Rather than focusing on the number of words I use, it's important to remember that respecting others is a two-way street. We should strive to support and uplift each other, while also recognising that we all have different paths to success. I hope this helps to provide a different perspective on the situation.

Skate.

Click to expand...

All I am saying is
Respect your Success in climbing the LADDER and then remove the LADDER
It is done in Business every day of the week

Captain_Chaza said:

All I am saying is
Respect your Success in climbing the LADDER and then remove the LADDER

Click to expand...

Its an interesting and succinct analogy el-Capitaan, and I'm sure everyone understands your point.

I also like analogies and with that in mind, I can see some potential nuances to the black and white nature of your ladder scenario. I believe what Mr @Skate is promoting on his thread is meant to be varying degrees of "grey" ....

With said "grey" in mind ....

a) You cannot remove the ladder if you are still only "half way" up (insert one's own personal position) ... as most traders are

b) If one assumes he has reached the summit of this imaginary ladder, and removes it .... He has possibly taken away his opportunity to climb any further ..... He would be better served by "extending" the ladder a few more rungs Or simply trade his ladder in for a longer one.

Of course there are limits to everything, lol! Time to invest in a cherry picker for this chap methinks!

Captain_Chaza said:

All I am saying is
Respect your Success in climbing the LADDER and then remove the LADDER
It is done in Business every day of the week

Click to expand...

What I take from your analogy is that once you've achieved success, remove the way for people beneath you to follow. And perhaps all those around you who are on their own ladders. And look to you for help. Only to see you’ve left them behind.

Not saying to help everyone get to the top of success, but to be a beacon of potential and not forget where you started.

Edit: Which is probably exactly what it means