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Dave I reckon that your on the money here. Sometimes caution is needed other times charge in like a bull in a china shop and depart just as quickly. The market always dictates the win or loss.
Oh to have that crystal ball that tells all.
 
Captain_Chaza said:
This type of Comment Sinks Ships IMHO In a BIG WAY
You said "As a trend trader, I'm used to focusing on the bigger picture and identifying long-term trends."

This has failure written ALL OVER IT as no-one has ever been able to do it in the past
Click to expand...

@Captain_Chaza, thank you for sharing your concerns about my trading. I appreciate your honesty and understand your reservations, particularly regarding the emphasis on long-term trends.

Let me clarify that when I refer to long-term trends, I'm talking about trends that unfold over a period of weeks or months. My strategies are not focused on predicting short-term market fluctuations, but rather on identifying and capitalising on the overall direction and momentum of the Index I trade.

As a trader, I understand that there are always risks involved, and I take responsibility for my own trading decisions. While I acknowledge your scepticism, I believe in the potential of my approach to trading and I'm committed to continually refining and improving my strategies to maximise my chances of success.

Skate.
 
DaveTrade said:
If the market was not trending your win/loss ratio could skew sharply towards the loss side and therefore causing your account balance to decline.
Click to expand...

My stats from July 2022
@DaveTrade, I've been evaluating my trading performance over the past few months, specifically looking at the period from July 2022. While my trading hasn't changed, it's clear that something has shifted in the market. It's heartening that my win/loss ratio has an average of 1.95 - where my win percentage of 42% is on the low side, but it's in line with my style of trading.



Something has changed
When evaluating my equity curve below the dip at the area marked (B) is concerning. This dip has altered the appearance of the equity curve, between (A) and (C). I believe this dip has impacted my strategy's performance, making it more challenging for them to generate the same results as they did before. Although my results have since recovered, the equity curve still shows a "different pattern" than before, indicating something has changed.

I'm sure the oil price war, combined with the global economic downturn during this period, contributed to the dip.



Skate.
 

Probably correct. This worked very well between 2004-07 prior to the GFC so maybe I was just blind lucky to be trading full time at that point. Not so lucky when the GFC hit and the Ask side disappeared.
 
Sean K said:
Probably correct. This worked very well between 2004-07 prior to the GFC so maybe I was just blind lucky to be trading full time at that point. Not so lucky when the GFC hit and the Ask side disappeared.
Click to expand...
now i was looking elsewhere before 2011 but from what i read about the GFC , the GFC was different by the fact the Government ( and not just the US ) picked the winners ( who to save and boost the balance sheet with forced mergers ) and to some extent that 'winner-picking continues today in some nations

maybe trading in markets when a big fat finger of intervention can occur at whim has wrecked trader for all but the 'insiders '

( it is not just the Fed who is the buyer of last resort , it's the BoJ , the BoE the Swiss National Bank and the ECB , and maybe some others )
 
UMike said:
Still rekon there is gonnna be a Christmas rally.
Might come eraly and have a let down with December maybe?????
Click to expand...

I'm optimistic about a Christmas rally
With my trading, a positive momentum is building, and I'm excited to see where it takes us. However, I do have a concern that @UMike's comment about a potential letdown in December might be a jinx. Let's hope he's wrong and that we can continue to enjoy the good times.



Skate.
 

@Skate

Not sure if you are relating 'reason and logic' to stock trading. If you are:


To suppose that the value of a common stock is determined purely by a corporation's earnings and discounted by the relevant interest rates and adjusted for the marginal tax rate is to forget that people have burned witches, gone to war on a whim, defended Stalin, and believed Orson Welles telling them that Martians have landed.



That story can change on a change in the direction of a breeze.

The 'story' is/are everything that is in the public domain and widely disseminated.

Can this be avoided? Can the 'truth' be discerned? Can you trust data?

Are 'price' charts actually any use?
Are indicators derived from price charts any use?

jog on
duc
 
ducati916 said:
How Reason Can Make You a Better Trader: Lessons from Ayn Rand
One quote that particularly resonates with me is her statement about the "power of reason".
Click to expand...

@ducati916, the stock market is intriguing and complex, and your comment has aptly highlighted the unpredictable nature of human behaviour and sentiment.

Your points are well-taken, and they underscore the challenges of system trading, particularly when it comes to accounting for the nuances of human psychology and external factors that can impact market movements. This is precisely why I rely on technical analysis to inform my decision-making process.

However, it's also important to recognise that successful trading is not just about the ability to reason and develop a sound trading strategy. It's equally crucial to stay abreast of current market conditions and adapt your trading to changing circumstances, otherwise, the strategy can become obsolete or ineffective.

In other words, while reason is an essential tool for traders, it's equally important to remain open to new information, continually learn and refine one's approach, and adjust to the ever-evolving landscape of the market.

Skate.
 
“Reason” plays a crucial role in trading
Reason allows traders to make decisions based on facts, data, and logical analysis rather than emotions or hunches. This can lead to more consistent and successful trading outcomes. Reason is key to developing and executing a trading strategy with precision.

Reason helps traders to objectively assess the risks associated with different trades and to manage those risks effectively. This might involve multiple exit strategies limiting the amount of money you can "actually" afford to lose.

Reason helps traders to keep their emotions in check, having "emotional control" over their trading preventing them from making impulsive decisions based on fear or greed. At times trading can be an emotional rollercoaster, with the potential for significant gains and losses.

Reason allows traders to objectively evaluate their trading performance, identify any mistakes or areas for improvement, and make necessary adjustments to their strategy.

Skate.
 
DaveTrade said:
Yes


Yes
Click to expand...


So 3 charts.

The first I will provide you with the name and some relevant data.

The next 2...no names. Both have gone up...a lot. What can you tell me about these stocks? Anything?



At 'A' the story was good/great. The chart was good/great.

Next 2.

Both are US stocks.





Curious to see what, if anything you can deduce from just a price chart. There are some clues in there.

jog on
duc
 
As I continue to evolve as a trader
I've come to prioritise the security of minimising drawdowns over the pursuit of maximising profits. While some may argue that a take-profit stop is too conservative, I've found that it aligns with my personal trading goals and risk tolerance. By setting a take-profit stop, I can lock in gains and avoid getting caught in a drawn-out battle with the market.

In my experience, setting a take-profit stop has allowed me to exit positions early and avoid significant drawdowns. While it may mean leaving some profits on the table, it also allows me to sleep better at night knowing that I've protected my capital.

Ultimately, my goal as a trader is to build a sustainable and consistent track record, and I believe that managing risk through techniques like take-profit stops is essential to achieving that aim.

An image can convey the equivalent of a thousand words
@Nick Radge recently shared a chart of (EMR) that I’d like to use as an illustration to highlight the transformation in my thought process over time. This comparison will shed light on the evolution of my perspective from how I used to perceive things to my current viewpoint.



No take-profit exit strategy
I continue to trade the following strategy, which underscores the benefits of not capping the potential for profit. This approach allows for unlimited upside potential, emphasising the importance of letting your profits run. It’s a testament to the power of patience and long-term thinking in trading.




My current thinking
I’m increasingly inclined to seize profit opportunities as they arise. As demonstrated in the chart below, once profits are realised, there are no constraints on re-entering the position multiple times. This approach allows for capitalising on profitable situations while also providing the flexibility to make repeated trades.



Skate.
 
Trading Motivation
In trading, it’s essential to have a clear reason for every action you take, whether it’s entering a trade or deciding to trade in the first place. Without a solid reason, trading can become aimless. My sole motivation for trading is to generate profit. This profit provides the freedom to enhance the quality of life for those I care about.

I resonate with the phrase “the cobweb of your responsibility,” as it underscores the interconnectedness of our actions and their consequences.

Skate.
 
I use price charts and chart indicators to understand what a market is doing, and what is changing and the way it is changing. The price chart is the market in action.
 
investtrader said:
I am building a few positions. Market still unreliable but a bit more positive
Click to expand...

Mid-November Progress Report
So far, November has been promising, and I’m cautiously optimistic about the potential for a Santa Rally. However, I don’t want to jinx it. Fingers crossed for continued positive momentum.



Skate.
 
I like the idea of a trading plan being like a spider's web that is set up to capture some of the money from the markets as it drifts past the web.
 
DaveTrade said:
I use price charts and chart indicators to understand what a market is doing, and what is changing and the way it is changing. The price chart is the market in action.
Click to expand...

This is how I use charts
I’ve previously discussed the switch function and my approach to coding and utilising this feature in Amibroker. While it may be a bit advanced for beginners, I believe it’s worth explaining, especially since @ducati916 and @DaveTrade have broached the subject.

The `Switch` function in AmiBroker is a powerful "Chart" feature that allows you to create a "dynamic trading strategy" that can adapt to changing market conditions. This function empowers you to alternate between various trading strategies, indicators, or parameters, contingent on the conditions defined. At present, the “Switch Strategy” encompasses seven distinct strategies.

# Visualising these strategies on a chart can effectively highlight the subtle differences between them.

The `Switch` function works by allowing you to define a set of rules or conditions that determine which strategy or parameter should be used based on the current market conditions. You can think of it as a "decision tree" that evaluates different conditions and selects the appropriate strategy or parameter based on those conditions.

You use the `Switch` function to evaluate the conditions and select the appropriate strategy or parameter based on those conditions.

Additional reading for those who are interested

Dump it Here

AmiBroker Param Function The “Param Function” is the handiest feature that I use in my strategy development phase. The “Param function” allows me to switch between my definable parameters. This feature adds a new user-definable parameter to your strategy which is accessible via a Parameters...
www.aussiestockforums.com

Dump it Here

Moreover A picture paints a thousand words. These are a few typical "Pocket Pivot Strategy" entries (no-frills entry at that). The charts below display "pivot points" entries. Skate.
www.aussiestockforums.com

Dump it Here

AmiBroker Param Function The “Param Function” is the handiest feature that I use in my strategy development phase. The “Param function” allows me to switch between my definable parameters. This feature adds a new user-definable parameter to your strategy which is accessible via a Parameters...
www.aussiestockforums.com

Skate.
 
DaveTrade said:
I like the idea of a trading plan being like a spider's web that is set up to capture some of the money from the markets as it drifts past the web.
Click to expand...

@DaveTrade, I appreciate your trading-related interpretation. However, I’d like to clarify the context in which I was using the term.

As a parent and husband, I bear responsibilities towards my immediate family members, who are part of my “cobweb of responsibility”.

If everyone took care of their respective “cobwebs”, our lives would be more harmonious and interconnected. This concept extends beyond trading and into the realm of personal responsibilities, relationships and personal happiness.

Happiness to me is "Desiring the things that I have"

Skate.
 
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