Dump it Here

[Skate]

Skate, you mentioned earlier today that you spent 3 months studying Japanese Candlesticks. I think (correct me if I'm wrong) in our discussions that you've mentioned also looking at trading Forex and also spent some time using Metastock?

I wonder if you'd mind sharing the path you've followed to reach the stage you're at with your trading now? eg. Software you've tried, different analysis techniques you've looked at, different investment vehicles (you mentioned LIC's) etc.

Software you've tried, different analysis techniques you've looked at, different investment vehicles (you mentioned LIC's)

Software
Like every business owner you have a strong understanding of the advantages of keeping accurate records & Microsoft is normally the choice of weapon. With a lot of financial software they have "Office Links".

An explanation
For those who don't know the power of "Office Links" , these links give you the ability to export files from one piece of software into another making manipulation of that data a breeze. Using 'OfficeLinks' allowed me to write reporting software for the 'Management Rights Industry' associated with the accommodation industry, I did that part time for 5 years

Share Trade Tracker
This is a portfolio manager (an excellent one in fact) for XLAutomation. Scott Lindsay was given a screen shot of my Portfolio Manager & he asked if I would allow him to use my features & incorporated those features into his software. Long story short, I'm an ongoing beta tester & a lot of my idea are now standard feature of his software.

Users
Users of 'Share Trade Tracker' - if you like the look of the colourful 'Dashboard' & reference boxes that change colour in reference to the cell content that came from me. Some of the ribbon also, the ATO franking Credit feature mine as well.

Investment Vehicles
1. Trading my Hybrid breakout strategy
2. LIC's as a long term 'investment' - dividends reinvestment (a set & forget strategy)
3. I have a few business investments
4. Like most I have a few residential realestate Investments
5. I also have a few commercial realestate investments

Yeh, I'm doing okay, trading started as a hobby, now its a passion.

Skate.

 

[captain black]

trading started as a hobby, now its a passion.

There's something we have in common

 

[Skate]

Thanks for sharing your trading path Skate.

I hadn't heard of Steve Nison, have vague memories of Louise Bedford writing some stuff on candlesticks.

A quick Google of Steve Nison has this review near the top of the search results:

https://www.tradingschools.org/reviews/steve-nison/

Sounds like they agree with your thoughts

Yes I do agree that the mystical candlestick patterns didn't work for me, there is a lot of information on coding candlestick patterns in Amibroker & I can report from personal experience not one strategy was successful in making money. (the name of the game is all about "making money")

Skate.

 

[tech/a]

From my perspective
Understanding candlestick patterns setups that work sometimes but not at other times didn't enrich my trading life.

Have you ever tried to get your head around VSA?

 

[captain black]

Yes I do agree that the mystical candlestick patterns didn't work for me, there is a lot of information on coding candlestick patterns in Amibroker & I can report from personal experience not one strategy was successful in making money.

I found the same. I couldn't find an edge in common isolated Candlestick patterns.

 

[captain black]

Have you ever tried to get your head around VSA?

That's where it gets interesting isn't it. Add in volume and multiple bar setups and you have a quantifiable edge.

 

[Skate]

Have you ever tried to get your head around VSA?

VSA
I've given (VSA) a good shot - I have read many books on Volume Spread Analysis & a few articles by Tom Williams. Following the principles of Wyckoff, Livermore, Tom Williams, and Anna Coulling. I would personally recommend Anna Coulling book would be the first book to read among others

I have the Amibroker indicators & find them useful but when you start to include or incorporate discretionary into the mix over hard coding that's where we'll part company.

Skate.

 

[captain black]

I have the Amibroker indicators & find them useful but when you start to include or incorporate discretionary into the mix over hard coding that's where we'll part company.

Most of the setups can be coded and used in a mechanical system, it doesn't have to be discretionary.

 

[tech/a]

Add in volume and multiple bar setups and you have a quantifiable edge.

include or incorporate discretionary into the mix over hard coding that's where we'll part company

In Isolation placing a car in gear, starting the engine or accelerating wont guarantee forward motion--put it all together and you have a much better chance.
Same with VSA.

 

[captain black]

In Isolation placing a car in gear, starting the engine or accelerating wont guarantee forward motion--put it all together and you have a much better chance.
Same with VSA.

From a discretionary trading point of view the synergies between VSA setups and Market Profile are something I've been exploring. I noticed similar decision points when CanOz and I were posting trades in real time in Modest's futures thread.

It's not something I've been able to code into a system but it's been interesting testing the setups.

 

[peter2]

re: Skate's hybrid system results for 17-18. Wow.

Congrats and damn, you've forced me to re-evaluate my preference to hold 8-12 positions in my portfolios. Did you also research this aspect for your system?
Clearly with lots of small positions one big hit isn't going to be noticed and with so many positions you're almost certain to get into most of the best trends of any period.

Now I have to research this myself. More work to do.

 

[captain black]

with so many positions you're almost certain to get into most of the best trends of any period.

I'm sure Skate will add more, but around 20 positions is the sweet spot for a trend following system.

Now I have to research this myself. More work to do.

It's never ending isn't it

 

[Skate]

re: Skate's hybrid system results for 17-18. Wow.

Congrats and damn, you've forced me to re-evaluate my preference to hold 8-12 positions in my portfolios. Did you also research this aspect for your system?
Clearly with lots of small positions one big hit isn't going to be noticed and with so many positions you're almost certain to get into most of the best trends of any period.

Now I have to research this myself. More work to do.

Sweet Spot
peter2, 53 positions is the sweet spot for my HYBRID Strategy as testing confirms. (but nothings perfect)

Combined strategy
I'm running (3) separate breakout systems combined into one strategy. The combination of strategies allow me to set individual parameters making sure I pick up that signal quicker. Getting onto the move at the right time pays huge dividends in overall performance.

Taking the signal early
Trading weekly and getting the signal early makes the difference between a good system to a better system. I've added additional filters & indicators as I use a very large Looping stop (a chandelier stop for a simpler explanation) its in place to keep me safe. (I've explained before I'm a trading wimp)

ROC indicator
I've explained in an earlier post how the Exit (stale Stop) works & how I use the (ROC) to gauge momentum (traders interest) going into the trade & when it stalls & downturns I'm out of the trade quick smart.

I'm not using a stock standard Rate of Change indicator (ROC) there's a little more to it than that.

Don't let other tell you its not all about trends
I'm a Trend Follower & a quick and simple explanation for others - if traders want to jump on & push a stock price higher count me in but as soon as I know the interest starting to wain (lose momentum) I'm off the sucker looking for the next ride.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Thank God its Friday..

The market has closed.
After 6pm tonight I'll push one button in Amibroker & it will tell me 3 things in column order (Hint: it's in the same order I'll use to place an order in Commsec)

(a) what ASX code to buy
(b) how many shares to buy &
(c) what price to offer in the pre-auction.

Trading doesn't get any simpler that that (automated trading excluded)

Let me do a 'Kevin Rudd'
I'll ask a question & I'll answer it myself.

Q1 What am I buying ?
No idea & frankly I don't really care

Q2 Why are you buying it ?
The Amibroker Exploration gives me a signal that the stock has met my strict entry conditions.

Q3 Are you worried about buying a DUD
Nope, I know 50% will be losers, that's Trend trading

Q4 When will you sell the position
When Amibroker give me a Sell signal, "I will not sell early" no matter how the position is travelling (it's captains black rule not mine)

I wouldn't trust myself to make a sell decision, left up to me I'd most likely get it wrong anyway.

Yep, trading for me is boring.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

captain black, before you ask.

I have 4 signals today, I'm cheering..

Skate.

 

[captain black]

captain black, before you ask.

You need to add psychic to your list of talents.

I have 4 signals today, I'm cheering..

Ah, nice, slowly building up a full portfolio

Not sure how many positions I'll be opening up on Monday, the scans are scheduled to run automatically in about 40 minutes time for my ASX systems.

 

[captain black]

I have 4 signals today, I'm cheering..

Looks like I've got a busy Monday coming up. 12 entries and 8 exits across 3 systems.

My "traditional" index filter I use on 2 of the systems is still positive. My "experimental" machine learning index filter on the other system is also still positive but is beginning to weaken. In testing it has been more reactive than the traditional filter and switches off and on quicker. In testing and paper trading it's improved my CAR/MDD quite a bit, will be interesting to see how it performs in live trading.

 

[ducati916]

Yes I do agree that the mystical candlestick patterns didn't work for me, there is a lot of information on coding candlestick patterns in Amibroker & I can report from personal experience not one strategy was successful in making money. (the name of the game is all about "making money")

Skate.

Indeed, single candlesticks, pretty useless. You need to lean backwards, blur your focus and look at a block of 5 or 6. Seriously.

jog on
duc

 

[willy1111]

Investment Vehicles
1. Trading my Hybrid breakout strategy
2. LIC's as a long term 'investment' - dividends reinvestment (a set & forget strategy)
3. I have a few business investments
4. Like most I have a few residential realestate Investments
5. I also have a few commercial realestate investments

Yeh, I'm doing okay, trading started as a hobby, now its a passion.

Skate.

Well done!

Having designed and now trading a system expected to return 20% plus per year on average with less than half an hr input per week what are your thoughts on simplifying your investments further by selling off real estate investments, LICs?

If you were able to rewind the clock 25 years, would you diversify as much as you have or concentrate more strongly on a trading strategy like you have developed?

 

[Skate]

Well done!

Having designed and now trading a system expected to return 20% plus per year on average with less than half an hr input per week what are your thoughts on simplifying your investments further by selling off real estate investments, LICs?

If you were able to rewind the clock 25 years, would you diversify as much as you have or concentrate more strongly on a trading strategy like you have developed?

willy1111, let me unpack your question, giving you an idea of the expectation placed on our shoulders. As a communal animal I’ve fallen for the human trait of conformity, being an imitator of others.

From birth we are conditioned to learn, work hard, raise a family & be financially self-sufficient. Nobody is going to give you the money you need to support yourself let alone raise a family, buy a house etc, that's the very reason we seek employment. The only person who can make sure you’re able to do it on your terms is you.

Your quality of life depends on you & you alone, we all think we are special but in reality our live are a result of a long series of random events. I'm different to most you would meet, I see the world through my eyes & not how the world really is. I think differently to most, mainly on a deeper level, a trait I thought we all possessed. (not so)

Happiness is really about is creating a quality life of financial independence that will affect everything you do or plan to do.

Question 1
"Having designed and now trading a system expected to return 20% plus per year on average with less than half an hr input per week what are your thoughts on simplifying your investments further by selling off real estate investments, LICs?"

1. Simplify my investments further, why what the point, my investments are simple (well to me they are)
2. Sell off my real estate investments, investments (assets) that produces an income, assets that increases in value over time. Nope, never thought about it & its not even on the radar.
3. LIC's are our long term investment strategy geared to look after us in our later years of retirement, also it's difficult to trade a large pool of funds in the Australian markets (at worst our LIC's will be used for estate planing)

Lots of free time
I've given away most of our wealth (the secret to living is giving) I still have business interests. Having a lot of free time, I though trading would be fun, a hobby now a passion. I'm currently bored with trading, its proven to be less than exciting, 30 minutes a week is really closer to 15/20 minutes.

Question 2
"If you were able to rewind the clock 25 years, would you diversify as much as you have or concentrate more strongly on a trading strategy like you have developed?"

Wind the clock back 25 years, never really through about it. I retired at 46 (meaning I was a free agent, others were doing the work for me) it didn't take me long to realise that working took up a lot of my spare time. Freeing up time is not what it's cracked up to be.

Would I do things differently, most likely not, I've added in a small way to society, I've donated to charities, I've employed people, I've conformed to the norm whereas trading add no value in these aspects. What I've achieved being a member of a community has been rewarding, whereas trading only adds value to my wealth.

Skate.