Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Dump it Here

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Gringotts Bank said:
Rotter made something like 60 mill a year over a 10 year period, according to some reports. He did it by playing both sides of the depth.
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He's an interesting bloke, did it on the most liquid futures markets. Oddly enough I've found the most liquid futures markets (ES, Nikkei, Bund) to be the most profitable as well (not quite at 60mill a year though!!:D)
 
Speaking of PHD, I've got the tennis on in the background while I'm trading the Bund. I reckon if you look up Persistence, Hard Work and Determination in the dictionary there'll be a picture of Simona Halep under each entry, she's an amazing player.
 
Skate said:
Yep, trend followings systems work well in a Bull market & I'm way ahead of the game. (that's a given)

Lemon & Lemonade
But, there are good times & there are bad time that's the nature of the game. I just roll with the punches. Have a look at January 2018 to June 2018 & feel my pain.

Pain
Yep, and the people who can handle the pain do alright and the ones that don't handle it don't do alright! The right mindset is massive in this game!

Skate
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That's fantastic, what is your view/approach to a safe withdrawal amount from the account to live on/pay tax and how often.

My thoughts are that a withrawal of 5% of the account balance once a year for living expenses should be safe, the account should continue to grow and compound very well. As in a 20% return, of that roughly 5% tax (or 0 if smsf) 5% to live on and 10% adds to the balance for next year.
 
Thank you and congratulations on the wonderful thread @Skate What a wonderful contribution to ASF and the internet. Like everyone else I hope you continue to share your wisdom :)

P.S. you've scared the bejeebuz outta me when it comes to trading. But forewarned is forearmed, so thank you again.
 
willy1111 said:
That's fantastic, what is your view/approach to a safe withdrawal amount from the account to live on/pay tax and how often.

My thoughts are that a withrawal of 5% of the account balance once a year for living expenses should be safe, the account should continue to grow and compound very well. As in a 20% return, of that roughly 5% tax (or 0 if smsf) 5% to live on and 10% adds to the balance for next year.
Click to expand...

willy1111, being 65 with a SMSF (0% tax rate) the minimum withdrawal rate is 5% of the funds balance @ 1st July of the financial year.

We are in a unique position that we don't require or need any pension payment diverted from our SMSF - the Dividend imputation tax credit is worth around $30K plus a year, not looking forward to losing that as Labors new imputation tax plan treats investors differently & unfairly - the tax application applies differently to the vehicle SMSF invests in.

My post on the subject:
https://www.aussiestockforums.com/t...y-or-simply-survive.33847/page-11#post-977832

Copy & pasted from the "how-to-retire-early-or-simply-survive thread" Page 11 #109

Consider three people, all of whom have SMSFs in pension phase, and who — according to the current tax rules — pay 0% tax:

1. Banking Betty,
2. Rental Richard and
3. Dividend Davina.

(a) Banking Betty deposits $100,000, and earns $2,000 each year in interest. Betty doesn’t pay any tax.

(b) Rental Richard has a $100,000 property that pays him $2,000 each year in rent. Richard doesn’t pay any tax.

(c) Dividend Davina buys $100,000 worth of shares that earned a profit of $2,000. The company paid tax of $600, so Davina gets $1,400. Davina doesn’t pay any tax.

See the difference here?

Because Davina’s investment is in the form of shares in a company, she gets less than the other two. Even though she’s not supposed to pay any tax, the company paid tax, so she gets less.

Under current rules, she’d get the $600 back, delivering on the current government policy of a 0% tax rate, and equalising the return for each of those investors.

CONCLUSION: Bill Shorten, in effect, is penalising people for owning shares.

Skate.
 
Darc Knight said:
Thank you and congratulations on the wonderful thread @Skate What a wonderful contribution to ASF and the internet. Like everyone else I hope you continue to share your wisdom :)

P.S. you've scared the bejeebuz outta me when it comes to trading. But forewarned is forearmed, so thank you again.
Click to expand...

Darc Knight, thank you for your kind words, it hasn't gone unnoticed that you are one of my biggest supporter, so thank you for liking my posts, hitting the "like" give me a direction for the next post & it also lets me know someone is reading them.

Important
You hitting the 'like button' means more to me than I could express in few words.

Skate.
 
One last trading related "dump" before I grab some shuteye before the US markets open.

Paul Rotter was mentioned today along with market liquidity. The quote below is from an article about him:

He mentioned in an interview that his biggest strength in trading is the ability to trade bigger when he has the advantage and to scale back when he doesn't or isn't trading well. This is a trait that I have seen often in very successful traders.
Click to expand...

I trade automated futures systems as well as some discretionary trading and scaling in and out of trades is the one thing I've found I spend more time on than anything when designing futures systems.
 
The story about ‘Open profits’

Have you ever thought this ?
Giving back open profits you tend to think – “I was lucky to have their money to give back & I've lost nothing of my own” then you start to beat yourself up justifying that you don't really see it that way at all, no matter how often you repeat it – you start to believe it’s really your money, your mind keeps saying it’s my money, I’m losing my money.

We all make up a story when under pressure
Losing open profits is very painful, so should we say "when it’s my money it’s my money."

Reality check
Open profits is not your money (at that stage of the trade) & having these thoughts will muck you up!

Well worth remembering
Open profits = Belong to the Market
Closed Profits = Belong to you

If you can accept that mindset (which a lot of traders can't) then that will serve you well when the volatility impacts your account.

Skate.
 
If you have an alternative view on this post, please feel free to express it. (I'm expressing my opinion only)

Japanese Candlesticks
I spent 3 months of my life studying Japanese Candlesticks patterns (3 months of my life I’ll never get back) only to find out that Candlesticks patterns do repeat consistently & work well sometimes, other times they don’t. As with trading, Japanese Candlesticks reading is not an exact science & it falls into the category of self interpretation.

Hidden meaning
You tend to interpret the hidden meaning of the Candlestick to construe or understand it in your particular way, sometimes you tend to see what you want to see & most times interpret the pattern as favourable that can lead you to trade with confidence.

Skate.
 
Skate said:
Open profits
Click to expand...

One of the ways to change the mindset around open profits is to think in terms of portfolio heat rather than portfolio profit at any one time.

A simple example

My system testing shows I can expect a drawdown of 20% of my portfolio at some stage.
My portfolio value has risen from $100K to $130K
If I'm expecting a 20% drawdown then I need to think in terms of my maximum portfolio heat (20%) so in reality my portfolio value is actually $130K -20% = $104K.

It's a bit oversimplified but it's a way changing your mindset.
 
If you have an alternative view on this post, please feel free to express it. (I'm expressing my opinion only)

Eyeballing charts
I’ve eyeballed heap of charts to see what has worked consistently over the past. I've studied the charts till my eyes go out of focus & I do see patterns everywhere but I've never seen a consistent pattern that I could turn into a code.

Predicting the future
Chart patterns are easy to spot when they are in the middle of the chart but as traders we can only trade at the hard right edge. Chart patterns look good in hindsight but less than handy predicting what will happen tomorrow.

Nice to visit
All patterns appear well after the fact, that’s a given, they tell you a story of what has happened in the past & not what will happen tomorrow. (pity)

Skate.
 
If you have an alternative view on this post, please feel free to express it. (I'm expressing my opinion only)

Charts are easy to interpret
Furthermore, I’m suggesting that chart patterns are easy to interpret after they happened & they are more predictable than they were before they occurred.

Unique ability
Chart readers have a unique ability to express their opinion on certain information that validates what we already know to be true and then create a story about it to make sense out of the event as we attempt to explain it to ourselves.

Skate.
 
If you have an alternative view on this post, please feel free to express it. (I'm expressing my opinion only)

Disclaimer
'captain black' has the unique ability to read chart patterns as they are developing, a skill I'll never understand, even though its been explained to me quite often. The captain see patterns forming that we can only dream of, but in all honesty he is a master at his craft.

Charting reading, leave it to the experts
Some Chart patterns can give you a false sense of security & can lead you into making a poor trading decision – chart readers always protect there ar$e by saying it could go this ways, than again the price may go the other way (bloody confusing at best)

Most traders can’t predict
I tend not to believe those who think they know what the future holds. Most traders can’t predict if the market will open higher or lower tomorrow let alone what a company’s price movement might do.

Skate.
 
A simple ponder for all of you Mechanical Systems traders.

We formulate
Entry condition which if triggered is tested to move to Exit Condition
X% of the time returning Y expectancy.

What happens in between is largely irrelevant.

Should this be so?
 

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