Dump it Here

Skate · 10 October 2023

In today's series of posts
I wanted to provide an educational example for those who are new to trading. The recent experiences of traders like Nick Radge have highlighted the inherent risks of relying solely on historical strategy performance. It serves as a valuable lesson that even the most reliable strategies can fail, and markets can quickly turn against us.

Nick Radge, an experienced and skilled professional, has faced significant drawdowns over the past 18 months. This demonstrates that no one is immune to changing market conditions. It is crucial to understand that past success does not guarantee future profits. Traders must constantly adapt and take steps to mitigate risks, especially during challenging periods.

The main takeaway from this discussion is that trading is not a guaranteed path to success. It requires continuous learning, adaptability, and a disciplined approach to risk management. New traders should be cautious about blindly following strategies based solely on historical performance and instead focus on building their own understanding and skills.

It is essential to study various trading methodologies, develop a robust risk management plan, and regularly reassess and adapt strategies based on changing market conditions. By doing so, traders can increase their chances of long-term success and navigate the ups and downs of the financial markets more effectively.

Remember, trading is a journey that involves both successes and setbacks. It is through continuous learning and experience that traders can refine their skills, manage risks, and ultimately achieve their financial goals.

Skate.

Skate · 10 October 2023

divs4ever said:
Nick might be re-assessing the trading systems he is using , they might need some extra adjustments

Relying solely on historical strategy performance is risky
As traders, we must continuously evaluate and adjust our strategies to ensure they remain effective in the current market environment. Relying solely on historical performance is not enough, and we must always be prepared for unexpected market movements.

To further illustrate this point, let's take a look at a hypothetical scenario
Imagine a trader who has been using the same strategy for the past five years with great success. However, over the past year, the market has changed, and the strategy is no longer effective. The trader may experience significant losses if they don't adapt and adjust their strategy to fit the new market conditions. By continuously evaluating and adjusting our strategies, we can increase our chances of trading success.

Skate.

Skate · 10 October 2023

Today is a great reminder
For all of us to be mindful of how our words can be perceived by others, especially in a forum where tone and nuance can be easily misinterpreted.

It's so important to remember that constructive criticism or feedback is not a personal attack, but rather an opportunity for growth and learning. It's important to take feedback seriously, consider it thoughtfully, and respond graciously, whether we agree or disagree with it.

I appreciate all those who respond politely and respectfully today, even when faced with negative reactions. That sets a positive example for all of us and helps to create a supportive and respectful community where we can engage in productive discussions and learn from each other.

Skate.

divs4ever · 10 October 2023

should we thank Nick for helping to warm up this thread ???

i think we should

Skate · 10 October 2023

divs4ever said:
should we thank Nick for helping to warm up this thread ???

i think we should

Alexander2023 said:
usual encouragement of Flaming by others associated with him

I believe both statements are accurate
When I discuss anything to do with Nick it results in unattractive comments by him and others.

Skate.

Alexander2023 · 10 October 2023

My last indulgence at the "buffet table".

The notion that you can't see a Crash coming (unless its an almost instant one) or a Bottom being put in is incorrect. Plenty of top Traders do it everytime.

Flame On. Have a good day

divs4ever · 10 October 2023

i have seen this crash coming since late 2012 , i have been wrong on the arrival date for over a decade , i made a strategy and tweaked it as the opportunities arrived , i either have it covered or i haven't

time will tell

PS i was thinking down 40% in mid-2013 , but goodness knows what the delayed plummet will be once in arrives

Captain_Chaza · 10 October 2023

Alexander2023 said:
My last indulgence at the "buffet table".

The notion that you can't see a Crash coming (unless its an almost instant one) or a Bottom being put in is incorrect. Plenty of top Traders do it everytime.

Flame On. Have a good day

Name ONE (ie: #1)

Skate · 10 October 2023

Captain_Chaza said:
Name ONE (ie: #1)

Take your pick
@Captain_Chaza there is a litany of smart traders out there, you asked for one but here are four to choose from.

1. Ray Dalio
The founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest hedge funds in the world. Dalio is known for his ability to identify market trends and make successful bets on the direction of the market. He has been successful in predicting several market crashes, including the 1987 stock market crash and the 2008 financial crisis. Dalio's YouTube video are always inciteful

2. Michael Burry
Michael is a famous well-known trader who successfully predicted the 2008 financial crisis. Burry was a hedge fund manager who ran the Scion Capital LLC fund. He is known for his unconventional investment strategies and his ability to identify undervalued assets.

3. Marc Faber
Faber is a Swiss investor and economist who is known for his bearish outlook on the financial markets. In the mid-2000s, he began to warn of a potential market crash, citing excessive leverage and speculation in the financial sector. Faber's fund, Marc Faber Limited, returned 300% in 2007, thanks to his successful short positions in the financial sector. Faber's YouTube video are scattered all over the forum

3. Bill Ackman
Ackman is a hedge fund manager who runs Pershing Square Capital Management. In 2007, he began to notice signs of trouble in the financial sector, particularly in the subprime mortgage market. He started shorting subprime mortgage-backed securities and eventually expanded his short positions to include other financial stocks. Ackman's fund returned 200% in 2007, thanks to his successful short positions.

Skate.

Captain_Chaza · 10 October 2023

You Said
Take your pick
@Captain_Chaza there is a litany of smart traders out there, you asked for one but here are four to choose from.

1. Ray Dalio
The founder of Bridgewater Associates, one of the largest hedge funds in the world. Dalio is known for his ability to identify market trends and make successful bets on the direction of the market. He has been successful in predicting several market crashes, including the 1987 stock market crash and the 2008 financial crisis. Dalio's YouTube video are always inciteful

How did he do on all the many other Crashes over the 35Years
Crikey How did he do on the DOT Boom/Crash
All clocks are correct Twice a Day

Same applies to the others

Skate · 10 October 2023

Captain_Chaza said:
Ray Dalio
How did he do on all the many other Crashes over the 35Years
Crikey How did he do on the DOT Boom/Crash
All clocks are correct Twice a Day

Same applies to the others

@Captain_Chaza, your comments are not representative of reality.

Ray Dalio's track record over the past 35 years is certainly impressive, delivering consistent returns that have outperformed the broader market over the long term. However, based on his track record and investment philosophy, it's clear that Dalio has a deep understanding of the markets and a proven ability to navigate challenging conditions.

Skate.

Captain_Chaza · 10 October 2023

Skate said:
View attachment 163809

@Captain_Chaza, your comments are not representative of reality.

Ray Dalio's track record over the past 35 years is certainly impressive, delivering consistent returns that have outperformed the broader market over the long term. However, based on his track record and investment philosophy, it's clear that Dalio has a deep understanding of the markets and a proven ability to navigate challenging conditions.

Skate.

I am Richer!

Skate · 10 October 2023

Alexander2023 said:
Anyway, I'm a Student not a Teacher. I just wanted insight into Nick's "fall from Grace".

@Alexander2023, Nick Radge's "Fall from Grace" was not the focus of my posts today, and your comment is not only off-topic but also inappropriate and disrespectful.

You asked two questions:
(1) Why would a Systems Trader sell Systems that aren't able to deal with a possible Market Crash?
(2) Secondly, his Regime Filter seems inappropriate to predict a possible Market Crash.

In answering your two questions
My intention was to show that even the best traders can struggle in difficult markets, and Nick Radge is a great example of this. Despite his success, he has faced challenges recently and has been open about his experiences.

I believe that Nick Radge is to be applauded for his tireless efforts to educate and empower both new and seasoned traders, constantly pushing the envelope with innovative strategies and invaluable insights.

When individuals reach a certain level of success and recognition in their field, they have the opportunity to share their insights and experiences with others and earn a living from it. Nick Radge has done just that, and his willingness to share his knowledge is admirable.

Skate.

Skate · 12 October 2023

Skate said:
When I discuss anything to do with Nick, it results in "unattractive comments" by him and others.

Credibility
Honesty and transparency are essential for maintaining credibility, especially when it comes to sharing or presenting information. Misrepresenting facts or twisting words can damage one's reputation and erode trust, making it harder to effectively communicate and be taken seriously in the future.

Misrepresentation
When someone misrepresents your words or twists them to prove a point. It's important to address the issue in a calm and respectful manner. I understand that we may have different opinions, but I want to clarify that my previous statement which is below was misrepresented.

I did not say that Ray Dalio can call market tops and bottoms, nor did I suggest that he is immune to drawdowns. My point was that he has a proven track record of delivering consistent returns over the long term.

My previous comments
"Ray Dalio's track record over the past 35 years is certainly impressive, delivering consistent returns that have outperformed the broader market over the long term. However, based on his track record and investment philosophy, it's clear that Dalio has a deep understanding of the markets and a proven ability to navigate challenging conditions".

Unreal Expectation
I understand that some people may have unrealistic expectations about the abilities of great investors like Ray Dalio. However, it's important to remember that even the best investors in the world can't predict market tops and bottoms with certainty. Bridgewater Associates, which Ray Dalio founded, has a proven track record of delivering consistent returns over the long term, but that doesn't mean they're immune to drawdowns. No trader or investor is.

Skate.

rcw1 · 12 October 2023

Skate said:
Credibility
Honesty and transparency are essential for maintaining credibility, especially when it comes to sharing or presenting information. Misrepresenting facts or twisting words can damage one's reputation and erode trust, making it harder to effectively communicate and be taken seriously in the future.

View attachment 163905

Misrepresentation
When someone misrepresents your words or twists them to prove a point. It's important to address the issue in a calm and respectful manner. I understand that we may have different opinions, but I want to clarify that my previous statement which is below was misrepresented.

I did not say that Ray Dalio can call market tops and bottoms, nor did I suggest that he is immune to drawdowns. My point was that he has a proven track record of delivering consistent returns over the long term.

View attachment 163906

My previous comments
"Ray Dalio's track record over the past 35 years is certainly impressive, delivering consistent returns that have outperformed the broader market over the long term. However, based on his track record and investment philosophy, it's clear that Dalio has a deep understanding of the markets and a proven ability to navigate challenging conditions".

Unreal Expectation
I understand that some people may have unrealistic expectations about the abilities of great investors like Ray Dalio. However, it's important to remember that even the best investors in the world can't predict market tops and bottoms with certainty. Bridgewater Associates, which Ray Dalio founded, has a proven track record of delivering consistent returns over the long term, but that doesn't mean they're immune to drawdowns. No trader or investor is.

Skate.

Good afternoon Skate

Hoping find you well. Couple things:

Nothing like good ol fashioned comments made that can be used as a motivational inspirational tool / platform by a trader… to springboard into bigger and better, greater things . Sticks and stones ….

Elite sports men and women after many years in their fields always get distracters, many boxers and rugby league players have been accused of being ‘washed-up’ and come back and play almighty games / fight winning bouts post the comments ha ha ha ha ha beautiful… rcw1 always embraces the battler.

There are some brilliant people out there, quite remarkable really … no doubt about that .. ability to understand multiple themes, ability to interpreted data quickly … move mountains but on the other side of the coin there are those that don’t even come close. Those at the other end; ha ha; slow on the uptake … no disgrace for mine, rcw1 is one of them.

Uneducated, sure, but schooled in the ways of the world and life skills at a very young age. Even still, truth be told, there are posters and authors that rcw1 simply cannot understand what the puck they are talking about ha ha ha ha too smart for rcw1 …

So as a trader, and everything in life rcw1 needs to keep it very simple, uncomplicated but practiced!!! Cool hand luke Do something over an over an over again you start to get good at it …. if it works do it again again and again, watch and keep watching the stock day after day , What it does under whatever circumstances; begin to know it better than itself, read about it, learn and become resilient, patient then pounce all over it … smash it time and time again until no more juice left in the orange … taking that coin on offer Ha ha ha then move to the next one …

The world according to rcw1. Ha ha ha Have a very nice Friday Skate, and get a rum into ya bloke!! …

Kind regards
rcw1

Skate · 12 October 2023

Skate said:
"Honesty and transparency are essential for maintaining credibility, especially when it comes to sharing or presenting information".

In my opinion, "the words that people use are a window to their soul"
@rcw1, the way people communicate with others can indeed be a reflection of their personality, character and values. The words people use can also reveal their level of "intelligence, and education". For instance, someone who speaks with a condescending tone or uses patronising language may come across as arrogant or dismissive.

It's unfortunate that some individuals, like him, feel compelled to belittle others and employ offensive language in their responses. However, it's important to recognise that disagreements can be expressed without resorting to personal attacks or insults. This is a valuable lesson that he has yet to learn.

Skate.

rcw1 · 12 October 2023

Skate said:
In my opinion, "the words that people use are a window to their soul"
@rcw1, the way people communicate with others can indeed be a reflection of their personality, character and values ...

Skate.

Good evening Skate,
Ah yes, perhaps also beliefs ... can be factored into the equation too, maybe much more difficult to detect. maybe?

Have a very nice night.

Kind regards
rcw1

Skate · 13 October 2023

Skate.

Skate · 13 October 2023

Skate.

Skate · 16 October 2023

Skate.

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