Dump it Here

Skate · 7 October 2023

ducati916 said:
I think that it would. If you stay out of bad markets for the system, its outperformance in good markets should remain. In aggregate you improve the systems performance.

@ducati916, I see your point. It's similar to what my neighbour said to me the other day. He commented that I've put on a few kilos and suggested I exercise and cut down on food to lose weight.

It made me think
"Why didn't I think of that?" It's a simple yet effective solution to a problem that, if implemented, will produce results. Similarly, your suggestion to stay out of bad markets makes sense. By avoiding unfavourable conditions, the system's performance should improve considerably. I'm sure this practical approach will make a difference.

ducati916 said:
Read back over some of your own posts re. learning new skills, study, etc. LOL.

I'm stumped with this comment
I took a moment to reflect on your comment about learning new skills and I'm unsure of the meaning behind the comment. While learning is important, it's equally essential for me to focus on mastering and refining existing skills and mastering what I already know. I believe that a combination of both will ultimately help me achieve my trading goals.

Skate.

divs4ever · 8 October 2023

Skate said:
@ducati916, I see your point. It's similar to what my neighbour said to me the other day. He commented that I've put on a few kilos and suggested I exercise and cut down on food to lose weight.

building up body fat is your own body's banking system ( not healthy if in excess , but neither is malnutrition )

the big danger there is getting into a fat increase/decrease cycle where after the decrease the body tries HARDER to increase you energy reserves ( because that is what fat is )

at one time in my mid 50's i took up body-building and had the pervert that cycle to put on bulk ( i am naturally very thin , and have very little body fat ) now this is very risky as the normal weight loss regime is because in loads up the liver and kidneys with extra work ( and you really don't want the filtration system messed up)

but back to the markets , i am guessing 'cash' means some sort of short-term money market ( or at call facility )

until April i was in an area with spiraling crime rates so gold and silver ( in any sort of volume was off the table )

between the new property and the share market that is about 90% of it but when in 'civilization i was buying long shelf-life commodities ( to use and trade in dire times )

now yes some of those share holdings are operating at very low ( or no ) cash risk , that seemed to be a good option for me

divs4ever · 8 October 2023

Skate said:
It made me think
"Why didn't I think of that?" It's a simple yet effective solution to a problem that, if implemented, will produce results. Similarly, your suggestion to stay out of bad markets makes sense. By avoiding unfavourable conditions, the system's performance should improve considerably. I'm sure this practical approach will make a difference.

but what is a 'bad market' in March 2020 i was like a kid in a toy-shop with a pocketful of cash ( and half wishing a had half a million more in cash ) .. too many choices not enough eyes to watch them with ,
to me early 2019 was a 'bad market ' nothing attractive to buy ( no good reason to buy 'reverse index' ETFs back then either , and worse still interest rates were anemic )

very much a case of knowing where your strengths are ( volatile markets , long trends , etc. etc etc )

good luck

rcw1 · 8 October 2023

divs4ever said:
but what is a 'bad market' in March 2020 i was like a kid in a toy-shop with a pocketful of cash ( and half wishing a had half a million more in cash ) .. too many choices not enough eyes to watch them with ,
to me early 2019 was a 'bad market ' nothing attractive to buy ( no good reason to buy 'reverse index' ETFs back then either , and worse still interest rates were anemic )

very much a case of knowing where your strengths are ( volatile markets , long trends , etc. etc etc )

good luck

Good afternoon Divs4ever

Ask Janis Gunars (John) Spalvins ...

Kind regards
rcw1

Skate · 9 October 2023

Skate.

Skate · 9 October 2023

Skate.

Alexander2023 · 10 October 2023

Good Morning, Afternoon, Evening All,

I note that Nick Radge has stated that he has turned off his Systems and is in Cash due to expectations of a possible impending Crash. While I have my doubts about his reasoning, I also ask: why would a Systems Trader sell Systems that aren't able to deal with a possible Market Crash?

Secondly, his Regime Filter seems inappropriate to predict a possible Market Crash.

I de-followed him long ago as he seems too much of a self promoter or Businessman of selling all things to do with Trading.

I guess I'll receive threats of Legal Action from him, like another Poster in this Thread, or the usual encouragement of Flaming by others associated with him, but can anyone shed light on my questions above please.

Thank you.

divs4ever · 10 October 2023

Alexander2023 said:
I also ask: why would a Systems Trader sell Systems that aren't able to deal with a possible Market Crash?

possible exchange and/or platform mal-functions and glitches

having been entangled in such issues ( mainly on Commsec ) i have thoroughly tested the patience and skills of Commsec support team , for up to two hours at a time ( at least they don't automatically block my calls )

HOWEVER i am almost completely a small retail investor , so if i can get jammed up by massive market movements , what chance a professional trader who does trades in the realm of hundreds of times more than me ( in both $$value and quantity of trades needing execution )

sometimes crises happen outside of your computers/internet provider , maybe Nick is just being extra cautious

Skate · 10 October 2023

Alexander2023 said:
I note that Nick Radge has stated that he has turned off his Systems and is in Cash due to expectations of a possible impending Crash. While I have my doubts about his reasoning, I also ask: why would a Systems Trader sell Systems that aren't able to deal with a possible Market Crash?

Secondly, his Regime Filter seems inappropriate to predict a possible Market Crash. I de-followed him long ago as he seems too much of a self promoter or Businessman of selling all things to do with Trading. I guess I'll receive threats of Legal Action from him, like another Poster in this Thread, or the usual encouragement of Flaming by others associated with him, but can anyone shed light on my questions above please.

@Alexander2023, thank you for sharing your thoughts and insights into Nick Radge's trading performance and offering a constructive perspective on the importance of his Twitter comments. In the next post, I will shed some light on why "it's essential to keep our strategies current and adapt to changing market conditions".

@divs4ever, I believe Alexander was referring to commercially available trading strategies that should be able to handle the rigours of all trading conditions, including possible market crashes, which have been coded by professionals rather than the odd glitches now and again.

It's understandable to be concerned about the reliability of trading systems, especially given the potential for unexpected market events and why it's important to be cautious and prepared for various scenarios. However, it's also important to remember that no trading system is foolproof, and even professional traders can face challenges in extreme market conditions.

Skate.

Skate · 10 October 2023

Alexander2023 said:
I ask: why would a Systems Trader sell Systems that aren't able to deal with a possible Market Crash?

@Alexander2023, that's a fair question.

Nick Radge's Trading Performance - A Lesson in Adaptability
As a small community dedicated to learning and improving our trading skills, it's important to analyse and discuss various trading strategies and performance. Nick Radge's Twitter account has been sharing his trading performance with his followers, but he has now decided to discontinue this idea of displaying his ongoing trading results. I decided to take a closer look at his statements and wanted to share my findings with you.

According to Nick Radge's tweets
His trading performance for the calendar year 2022 was a loss of -$988,833, and for this calendar year 2023, his trading account is so far down -$248,895 as of the "16th of September, 2023" when he stopped reporting. He has also mentioned that he has turned off his systems and gone to cash. It's important to note that Nick Radge's statements and actions are his own opinions and do not necessarily reflect the views of the wider trading community.

Skate.

Alexander2023 · 10 October 2023

divs4ever said:
possible exchange and/or platform mal-functions and glitches

having been entangled in such issues ( mainly on Commsec ) i have thoroughly tested the patience and skills of Commsec support team , for up to two hours at a time ( at least they don't automatically block my calls )

HOWEVER i am almost completely a small retail investor , so if i can get jammed up by massive market movements , what chance a professional trader who does trades in the realm of hundreds of times more than me ( in both $$value and quantity of trades needing execution )

sometimes crises happen outside of your computers/internet provider , maybe Nick is just being extra cautious

Thank you for the response.

Successful Traders I know and Institutions have multiple Accounts on different Power Grids, ISPs etc so if one goes down they can switch to the backup. I'm even prepared for that to some degree.

But going to Cash as a Systems Trader everytime things look precarious seems overkill. He moves in and out faster than most people too I assume, its automated.

It was very evident on Wednesday night that the Instos were accumulating, Thursday night a very small bit of Red, then Friday night another Rally. How he didn't see that at least on Thursday morning is beyond me.

Skate · 10 October 2023

Alexander2023 said:
I note that Nick Radge has stated that he has turned off his Systems and is in Cash due to expectations of a possible impending Crash. But going to Cash as a Systems Trader everytime things look precarious seems overkill.

Hitting the Pause Button
Even an experienced trader who has enjoyed profitable periods in the past has incurred huge losses over the last 18 months. It just goes to prove that even experienced skilled professionals like Nick Radge demonstrate that no one is immune to changing conditions. I note that @Alexander2023 remarked that Nick Radge has turned off his systems and is in cash due to expectations of a possible impending crash. While going to cash may be a prudent move, it's worth considering whether this approach is necessary or appropriate for a Systems Trader.

Sustaining an Ongoing Massive Drawdown
Seeing traders like Nick Radge incur huge drawdowns highlights the risk of relying solely on historical strategy performance. Markets can quickly turn against us, and even the most reliable strategies can fail. If I were facing similar mounting losses while declaring "All my strategies remain well within tested boundaries," without adapting or taking steps to mitigate risk, you'd be justified in questioning my judgment.

Skate.

divs4ever · 10 October 2023

Alexander2023 said:
Thank you for the response.

Successful Traders I know and Institutions have multiple Accounts on different Power Grids, ISPs etc so if one goes down they can switch to the backup. I'm even prepared for that to some degree.

But going to Cash as a Systems Trader everytime things look precarious seems overkill. He moves in and out faster than most people too I assume, its automated.

It was very evident on Wednesday night that the Instos were accumulating, Thursday night a very small bit of Red, then Friday night another Rally. How he didn't see that at least on Thursday morning is beyond me.

well if Skate's analysis of Nick's tweets are close to accurate

Nick might be re-assessing the trading systems he is using , they might need some extra adjustments

when i was punting ( on the race-tracks ) back in the '70s and '80s 'doubling up was popular , that is after a losing bet you doubled up on the next bet , etc etc ( until you went broke or recovered from your string of losing events )

being a natural tightwad i successfully resisted this strategy , but many ( including some friends ), couldn't resist

maybe Nick is a Kenny Rogers fan ( The Gambler reference )

now i walked away from gambling when i realized i was successful on three 'lucky breaks ' in a row , and left the scene while i was ahead , not many can do that , most will think they can regain the skillful calculations given time and perseverance

PS i would be a nervous wreck relying on punting or trading for my entire income , but others seem to do it

Alexander2023 · 10 October 2023

Skate said:
Hitting the Pause Button
Even an experienced trader who has enjoyed profitable periods in the past has incurred huge losses over the last 18 months. It just goes to prove that even experienced skilled professionals like Nick Radge demonstrate that no one is immune to changing conditions. I note that @Alexander2023 remarked that Nick Radge has turned off his systems and is in cash due to expectations of a possible impending crash. While going to cash may be a prudent move, it's worth considering whether this approach is necessary or appropriate for a Systems Trader.

Sustaining an Ongoing Massive Drawdown
Seeing traders like Nick Radge incur huge drawdowns highlights the risk of relying solely on historical strategy performance. Markets can quickly turn against us, and even the most reliable strategies can fail. If I were facing similar mounting losses while declaring "All my strategies remain well within tested boundaries," without adapting or taking steps to mitigate risk, you'd be justified in questioning my judgment.

Skate.

Thanks Skate

You may know more about him than I do, but the possibility exists that he's using old Data and Strategies that don't work in changing Markets? He's focused too much on the Business and not on staying on top of his Game?

The Regime Filter he mentioned seems quite "interesting" for Trading those small Caps. It would appear it puts him in buying Laggards too, in my opinion.

Skate · 10 October 2023

Alexander2023 said:
Secondly, his Regime Filter seems inappropriate to predict a possible Market Crash. The Regime Filter he mentioned seems quite "interesting" for Trading those small Caps. It would appear it puts him in buying Laggards too, in my opinion. The possibility exists that he's using old Data and Strategies that don't work in changing Markets?

@Alexander2023, in terms of his regime filter, I have to agree with you to some degree. Nick Radge's regime filter may not be suitable for predicting a possible market crash and it's important to remember that no single indicator or tool can accurately predict a market crash.

Instead, it's always best to use a combination of different indicators and analysis techniques to form a well-rounded view of the market. Nick himself acknowledged the limitations of his regime filter when he asked for suggestions to improve or replace it. The fact that he stopped reporting his results a month ago also raises questions about the effectiveness of his approach.

Skate.

Skate · 10 October 2023

Alexander2023 said:
He's focused too much on the Business and not on staying on top of his Game?

@Alexander2023, it's important to recognise that trend following is a challenging strategy that requires patience, persistence, and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions.

While Nick has been focused on growing his business, he may have taken his eye off the ball when it comes to staying on top of his game. It's easy to get complacent when things are going well, but it's important to constantly evaluate and improve your strategies to stay ahead of the curve. I'm sure Nick is currently doing a bit of soul-searching to establish if he could have done better while sticking with the long game.

However, it's important to note that the saying "The only way to make money system trading is by selling the system" is not entirely accurate. While selling a trading system can be a source of income, it is not the only way to make money through system trading. In fact, many successful traders have been able to generate consistent profits by employing a combination of different strategies and continuously refining their approach.

Skate.

Nick Radge · 10 October 2023

Dear me...really? FFS, the ignorance here is astounding.

@Alexander2023
Wow - 3 posts and 3 attacks. How's the credibility...

Please explain where I have ever stated there is an impending crash? I have used Regimne Filters for over 20-years and the research that backs them up as useful tools are extensive. My portfolios constantly move between being fully invested and cash. They have done so for decades. It's no secret and I have written extensively about it.

@ divs4ever There are no adjustments to my strategies. They're all well within their tested boundaries.

@ Skate "Seeing traders like Nick Radge incur huge drawdowns.."
This is nothing more than an emotional comment and the precise reason why the exercise was run. My drawdown, in percentage terms, is a little over 20%. I think you, or anyone will be hard-pressed to find any trader on the planet that hasn't had a 20% drawdown at some stage. It happened in 2011 and again in 2018. Even so, my long term CAGR, even as at today, still stands at some +23%.

"I'm sure Nick is currently doing a bit of soul-searching to establish if he could have done better while sticking with the long game."
Or perhaps someone in my family is quite ill and I'm taking some time to deal with that.

Alexander2023 · 10 October 2023

So the "collective Wisdom" of his Twitter Followers came up with that Regime Filter? It feels like a Cult on there.

I was going to post that Meme of a large group of parachutists, but won't be that unkind.

Have a Good Day everyone

(Brace yourselves. I'm sure the Flaming will begin on Nick's Twitter )

Alexander2023 · 10 October 2023

Nick Radge said:
Dear me...really? FFS, the ignorance here is astounding.

@Alexander2023
Wow - 3 posts and 3 attacks. How's the credibility...

Please explain where I have ever stated there is an impending crash? I have used Regimne Filters for over 20-years and the research that backs them up as useful tools are extensive. My portfolios constantly move between being fully invested and cash. They have done so for decades. It's no secret and I have written extensively about it.

@ divs4ever There are no adjustments to my strategies. They're all well within their tested boundaries.

@ Skate "Seeing traders like Nick Radge incur huge drawdowns.."
This is nothing more than an emotional comment and the precise reason why the exercise was run. My drawdown, in percentage terms, is a little over 20%. I think you, or anyone will be hard-pressed to find any trader on the planet that hasn't had a 20% drawdown at some stage. It happened in 2011 and again in 2018. Even so, my long term CAGR, even as at today, still stands at some +23%.

"I'm sure Nick is currently doing a bit of soul-searching to establish if he could have done better while sticking with the long game."
Or perhaps someone in my family is quite ill and I'm taking some time to deal with that.

Greetings Nick,

I received your Newsletter on Friday. The implied meaning I got was that your concern over Bond movements, Gold prices etc was of an impending Crash. If I am wrong I apologize.

Feel free to flame me on Twitter, I'm sure you all will.

Skate · 10 October 2023

Nick Radge said:
@ Skate "Seeing traders like Nick Radge incur huge drawdowns.."

My full quote
"Seeing traders like Nick Radge incur huge drawdowns highlights the risk of relying solely on historical strategy performance. Markets can quickly turn against us, and even the most reliable strategies can fail. If I were facing similar mounting losses while declaring "All my strategies remain well within tested boundaries," without adapting or taking steps to mitigate risk, you'd be justified in questioning my judgment".

Going on to say
"Even an experienced trader who has enjoyed profitable periods in the past has incurred huge losses over the last 18 months. It just goes to prove that even experienced skilled professionals like Nick Radge demonstrate that no one is immune to changing conditions".

Nick Radge said:
My drawdown, in percentage terms, is a little over 20%.

Recap
"The fact that he stopped reporting his results a month ago also raises questions about the effectiveness of his approach". "His trading performance for the calendar year 2022 was a loss of -$988,833, and for this calendar year 2023, his trading account is so far down -$248,895 as of the "16th of September, 2023" when he stopped reporting".

More to come.

Skate.

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