Dump it Here

Skate · 25 July 2023

Why are a few traders successful?
The simple answer is that the majority of traders are losers. Trading carries inherent risks, and many traders end up losing money in the markets, even more than they can afford. However, with the right precautions, these risks can be managed.

The most common reasons traders struggle include
(1) Insufficient knowledge or experience.
It takes time to develop the skills and experience to trade well. Jumping in prematurely often leads to losses.

(2) Emotional decision-making.
Fear, greed, and panic can cloud judgement and cause poor trading choices. Mastering emotions is critical. If you don't get this one right the game is most likely over before it begins.

(3) Lack of trading discipline.
Straying from risk limits, overriding system rules, or trading plans usually hurt trading outcomes. Developing discipline takes work, time, and energy.

(4) Overtrading.
Been there, done that. Excessive trading activity often just racks up fees and creates a distraction. Less is often more with trading.

(5) Inadequate risk management.
Sloppy money management means unavoidable losses become catastrophic. Risk control must be robust and your primary concern.

(6) Impatience.
Trying to force wins accelerates losses. Patience and waiting for opportunities are integral parts of trading. Timing the entry is important.

(7) Not knowing when to sell.
Simply holding a position too long will eventually turn a winner into a loser.

Even seasoned traders face losses at times
It's not because of their trading strategy but rather due to the fact that markets are unpredictable. However, those who trade prudently, addressing the above common pitfalls, put themselves in a much better position to navigate risks and achieve lasting success. The keys are education, emotional maturity, discipline, risk awareness, and patience.

Footnote
Trading well is achieveable for those who respect the challenge and commit to it.

Skate.

Skate · 25 July 2023

Randomness kills enthusiasm
It's worth noting that there is an element of randomness in trading. Even with a perfectly executed setup and solid risk management, some trades may simply be losers due to factors beyond your control.

50/50 is "that the best" trend traders can do?
On average trend traders will have 50% of trades winners and 50% losers. Some traders may have a higher win rate than others, and some may have a lower win rate but still be profitable due to their risk management and position-sizing of their strategy. The key is to focus on your overall profitability rather than trying to win every trade.

Skate.

Skate · 25 July 2023

Successful trading is not just a matter of luck
To achieve success, traders need to focus on areas they can control, such as developing a comprehensive trading plan, implementing effective risk management, and mastering exit strategies. A robust trading plan includes clear goals, trading style and timeframes, risk management rules, and entry and exit strategies based on technical analysis.

Let's dispel the myth of luck in trading
Effective risk management involves determining the appropriate position size, using trailing stops, and maintaining a favorable risk-to-reward ratio. To optimise profits, traders must develop a solid exit strategy by setting clear profit targets, employing multiple exits, regularly reassessing and adjusting their strategy, and maintaining discipline. By focusing on these key aspects, traders can increase their chances of success and dispel the myth of luck in trading.

Skate.

Gringotts Bank · 25 July 2023

Skate said:
Why are a few traders successful?
The simple answer is that the majority of traders are losers. Trading carries inherent risks, and many traders end up losing money in the markets, even more than they can afford. However, with the right precautions, these risks can be managed.

The most common reasons traders struggle include
(1) Insufficient knowledge or experience.
It takes time to develop the skills and experience to trade well. Jumping in prematurely often leads to losses.

(2) Emotional decision-making.
Fear, greed, and panic can cloud judgement and cause poor trading choices. Mastering emotions is critical. If you don't get this one right the game is most likely over before it begins.

(3) Lack of trading discipline.
Straying from risk limits, overriding system rules, or trading plans usually hurt trading outcomes. Developing discipline takes work, time, and energy.

(4) Overtrading.
Been there, done that. Excessive trading activity often just racks up fees and creates a distraction. Less is often more with trading.

(5) Inadequate risk management.
Sloppy money management means unavoidable losses become catastrophic. Risk control must be robust and your primary concern.

(6) Impatience.
Trying to force wins accelerates losses. Patience and waiting for opportunities are integral parts of trading. Timing the entry is important.

(7) Not knowing when to sell.
Simply holding a position too long will eventually turn a winner into a loser.

Even seasoned traders face losses at times
It's not because of their trading strategy but rather due to the fact that markets are unpredictable. However, those who trade prudently, addressing the above common pitfalls, put themselves in a much better position to navigate risks and achieve lasting success. The keys are education, emotional maturity, discipline, risk awareness, and patience.

Footnote
Trading well is achieveable for those who respect the challenge and commit to it.

Skate.

Yes the numbers are stacked against us. I think it was Etrade in the US who did the first assessment of retail trader performance. I can't find the link now - probably taken down. They said something like 90% of their clients lost money over the longer term. Another CFD provider has a warning on their site that 75% of their clients lose money.

Aiming to become a professional trader is like aiming to become an elite sportsman or movie star. It's simply not possible for more than a few to make a living at it. Those who do make it will earn about $250k pa. (according to the ATO). Traders rank among the highest earners in Australia, but so do elite athletes. It doesn't take into account all those who worked hard and failed. The numbers they give are not averages - they simply look at the highest earners and investigate what work they're doing.

Investing / trading to supplement income is more realistic for me, and probably most others.

Anyway... play on.

Skate · 26 July 2023

A drunk dances to the song "Rasputin" by Boney M. Just when you thought a drunk couldn't be any more entertaining.

Skate.

Skate · 26 July 2023

My wife of 48 years said "Let's go upstairs and make love"
I told her to choose one, I can't do both.

Skate.

Skate · 28 July 2023

Skate.

Gringotts Bank · 29 July 2023

One of the biggest hurdles in trading is implementation, ie. placing the actual orders.

some examples:

- Broker limitations, eg. available order types, pricing discrepancies (esp with CFDs), speed
- Platform limitations, eg. time-outs for complex indicators, lack of bid-ask data
- Data feed limitations, eg. missing or incorrect data, spikes
- Personal time limitations, ie. excessive screen time requirements
- Internet latency limitations, (important when scalping)
- Assuming automation will be possible or easy. Sometimes it's simply not possible. When it is possible, it is a far bigger task than most realize. It needs a highly accomplished programmer, a lot of time and cost to set up.

It's not easy, because implementation often has to come near the end of the process, and by then it's usually too late. But it's definitely worth considering early on "Will I actually be able to implement this?".

farmerge · 29 July 2023

Gringotts Bank said:
Yes the numbers are stacked against us. I think it was Etrade in the US who did the first assessment of retail trader performance. I can't find the link now - probably taken down. They said something like 90% of their clients lost money over the longer term. Another CFD provider has a warning on their site that 75% of their clients lose money.

Aiming to become a professional trader is like aiming to become an elite sportsman or movie star. It's simply not possible for more than a few to make a living at it. Those who do make it will earn about $250k pa. (according to the ATO). Traders rank among the highest earners in Australia, but so do elite athletes. It doesn't take into account all those who worked hard and failed. The numbers they give are not averages - they simply look at the highest earners and investigate what work they're doing.

Investing / trading to supplement income is more realistic for me, and probably most others.

Anyway... play on.

Mr G it is always most pleasant when a trade brings a profit,
I do day trade but not to the level I used to.
Won some, lost some.
Now just concentrating on a handful of stocks and pickingnup small profits, which is working well for me now.
Small wins soon add up to a reasonable amount.
I look at it now as a source of passive income.

Gringotts Bank · 29 July 2023

Mr G. is a character on Summer Heights High.

ducati916 · 29 July 2023

jog on
duc

farmerge · 29 July 2023

Gringotts Bank said:
Mr G. is a character on Summer Heights High.

View attachment 160233

So sorry Mr GG somehow left off the 2nd "G"

Skate · 30 July 2023

What a great start to the new year
The Australian stock market weathered a volatile 2022-2023 and has shown resiliency so far in the new year. However, uncertainty remains high looking ahead.

Key factors like inflation and interest rates will continue driving market sentiment and performance. The RBA could slow its rate hike pace, helping calm the markets. However, global growth fears still loom. Australia's economy remains heavily tied to commodities, making it vulnerable to ongoing fluctuations in prices and demand, especially from China.

Forecasting the market's direction in 2023 is difficult amidst so much uncertainty. But history shows patience tends to be rewarded over panicking during market turmoil. Maintaining prudent risk management strategies will aid traders in navigating ahead. Periodic volatility is inevitable, but markets have always eventually resumed upward trajectories after downturns run their course.

For traders, flexibility is key in today's fluid environment. Staying committed to long-term plans while tactically adjusting to evolving conditions can help balance risk versus reward in any portfolio. With a keen perspective, market fluctuations can become opportunities rather than causes for alarm. 2023 will surely bring fresh challenges, but resilience and discipline can guide investors through uncertainty.

Summary
Patient and long-term focus may be rewarded for maintaining the resistance to panic selling into weak markets. But uncertainty and volatility likely aren't going away in the months ahead. Flexibility and prudent risk management will remain key attributes for traders navigating today's complex markets.

Skate.

Skate · 30 July 2023

IvoryWolf said:
Here's the Australian version in a video I released a couple of weeks ago:

@IvoryWolf, thank you for taking the time to share your trading insights in such an informative video. Your presentation offers a thoughtful summary of key concepts, and I appreciate you outlining your approach in a clear, educational manner. Any member who goes out of their way to help others get a big green tick from me.

Subscribing to your channel will provide me with an ongoing opportunity to learn from your experiences and perspective. I'm always looking to expand my knowledge as a trader, and your willingness to help others improve is truly commendable. Even if our trading strategies differ, I can still benefit from hearing your market analysis and techniques.

Content creators who generously give back to the trading community, as you do, are invaluable resources. I'm sure I will gain new trading ideas and skills from your future videos and commentary. Thank you again for your efforts to educate fellow traders on your channel - it is greatly appreciated.

Skate.

Skate · 30 July 2023

peter2 said:
Next, I'm thinking that the monthly review could be an exercise in self flagellation, showing all the trades I missed out on. Clearly, I'm unclear of the reasons for posting a monthly review. Instead, perhaps I can outline and display some near perfect setups that formed in July. If you like this idea, then post a like.

@peter2, I can't wait. The important thing about reviews they shine a brighter light on future trades.

I am delighted you are taking the time to review your recent and past trades as your insights will be invaluable not only for me but many others. A trade review with self-reflection illuminates key areas for improvement. By examining past decisions closely, we can apply those lessons to refine and enhance future trades. The opportunity to learn from experienced traders like yourself is so valuable.

Skate.

Skate · 30 July 2023

Don't tell me charts don't tell a story
Price charts reveal so much more than just a series of numbers or patterns. When you observe the charts closely, a compelling story emerges. The epic tale of the battle between buyers and sellers. The twists and turns of fear and greed. Success and failure. All played out in the tapestry of bars, candles, and volumes we analyse every day.

The charts provide the clues
As traders, we strive to interpret this financial story correctly. To understand the narrative the market is conveying. Why did price react here? What was the sentiment shift? How could I have anticipated this reversal?

Zooming in and out, technical patterns paint the landscape
Trends form mountain ranges. Support and resistance create boundaries. Breakouts shape dramatic turning points. The core elements of the market's story manifest visually on the charts. Volume adds texture and brings dynamics to the narrative. Large transactions foreshadow big moves.

No detail is insignificant when reading the charts
Those barely noticeable wicks become the seeds of reversals. The muted volumes before a huge expansion. Subtle shifts that build into massive trends. The wise trader sees what others miss. Price charts transform the abstract financial world into a visible story. Our goal is to immerse ourselves in the narrative to understand each scene, sensing directionality, and anticipating turning points. Then, with experience, we learn to participate skillfully in this never-ending trading story.

Skate.

Skate · 30 July 2023

The New Trading Landscape Post-COVID
The trading world has experienced immense change since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. What was once familiar terrain has shifted dramatically. As traders, we must adapt to this new landscape as volatility has intensified. The wild swings have increased volatility to historic levels. Strategies must account for amplified uncertainty and swift reversals. Preparing for unexpected turbulence is now essential.

Trading venues have transitioned
With work-from-home obligations, screen time has moved to home offices for many. Our trading environments have become more distributed. Our technology and analytics have advanced therefore flexibility and vigilance are mandatory in these dynamic times.

While rocky terrain awaits, an opportunity exists for adaptable traders
With education, you develop new skills, and traders can prosper even in uncertain times. This will require ongoing education, strategy revisions, and technological evolution. Though the way forward may be arduous, the path remains open to those willing to brave the journey. Every fluctuation in price is an opportunity in waiting.

Since COVID
There have been some traders who have taken the opportunity presented, whereas others decided to tread more carefully

Skate.

Skate · 30 July 2023

peter2 said:
It occurs to me that I could use the review work to create a list of desirable attributes that I want to see in a chart for a trading setup. I already use some checklists while looking through the scan results. (Aside: I'm thinking about @Skate hybrid system. It's the sort of system I'd create).

The power of combining strategies
Combining individual trading systems into a single Hybrid Trading Strategy can yield strong results. By blending complementary analytic approaches, traders benefit from an expanded perspective of the market from multiple analytic frameworks. At its core, the Hybrid Strategy is about the multiplicity of indicators, filters, and parameters. When three strategies are combined they observe the markets from different angles.

With more arrows in the quiver, the Hybrid harmonizes into a potent trading methodology. Each trading strategy offers unique technical indicators to identify trends and momentum. Used individually, these strategies send trade signals based on their particular parameters.

Multiple indicator sets compete to generate early signals. The hybrid harmonizes into a cohesive system with more detection power. With more lenses analyzing markets, more trade opportunities are revealed.

The hybrid combines seamlessly without added complexity. The component strategies integrate smoothly to amplify profitable signals. Years ago, I traded these methods individually, noticing each captured unique opportunities. Combining them unlocked a powerful methodology.

Simulated Backtest (All Ordinaries Current & Past)
1st Jan 2020 (Covid) to today - $100k portfolio (10 positions as suggested by Peter)

FYI
The Hybrid Strategy is a 40-position Trading Strategy.

Skate.

Gringotts Bank · 30 July 2023

Skate said:
The New Trading Landscape Post-COVID
The trading world has experienced immense change since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. What was once familiar terrain has shifted dramatically. As traders, we must adapt to this new landscape as volatility has intensified. The wild swings have increased volatility to historic levels. Strategies must account for amplified uncertainty and swift reversals. Preparing for unexpected turbulence is now essential.

Trading venues have transitioned
With work-from-home obligations, screen time has moved to home offices for many. Our trading environments have become more distributed. Our technology and analytics have advanced therefore flexibility and vigilance are mandatory in these dynamic times.

While rocky terrain awaits, an opportunity exists for adaptable traders
With education, you develop new skills, and traders can prosper even in uncertain times. This will require ongoing education, strategy revisions, and technological evolution. Though the way forward may be arduous, the path remains open to those willing to brave the journey. Every fluctuation in price is an opportunity in waiting.

Since COVID
There have been some traders who have taken the opportunity presented, whereas others decided to tread more carefully

View attachment 160253

Skate.

Hi Skate, I'm wondering how you calculate buying and selling pressure on XAO when XAO has no volume? Or it plotted against XAO (and calculated via other means?).

Skate · 30 July 2023

Gringotts Bank said:
Wondering how you calculate buying and selling pressure on XAO when XAO has no volume? Or it plotted against XAO (and calculated via other means?).

Buying and Selling Pressure Indicator
The Buying and Selling Pressure Indicator (developed by another) has invoked a lot of interest which is actually a very simple indicator using the excursion of the price.

Many times it is just a matter of how we are looking at the data
We can glean a lot of information if we look at the data the right way. The buying and selling pressure indicator is also the same case. It's a very simple Indicator, using the Open, High, Low, and Close and the Volume. It obviously not a Holy Grail, but does give a very good picture of the buying and selling pressure.

The "raw buying and selling indication"
Is provided in terms of a Histogram. Green bars above zero show the buying pressure and the red bars below the zero line show the selling pressure. This presents a good visual representation of the dominating pressure.

The second is a "smoothed version"
This version with a yellow line representing the selling pressure and a turquoise line which represents the buying pressure. If the turquoise line is above the yellow line it would mean that the buying pressure is more and vice versa. The difference between the two is plotted as a Histogram. This is a cumulative value of the buying and selling pressure and provides an easy visual presentation of the dominating pressure.

The trifecta
The two indicators the (Raw and Smoothed Buying Pressure Indicator) and the (Percentage Up Filter) can easily complement any trading strategy.

Skate,

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