Dump it Here

[Skate]

I think avoiding answering 3, 4, and 5 says a lot.

Sarcasm. Sledging. It's all the same Phil. You're as guilty as me. Goodbye.

@Nick Radge, I appreciate your input, but I must respectfully disagree with your assessment. I make a conscious effort to provide accurate information to the best of my ability & convey my thoughts & experiences. However, my knowledge is limited, & my opinions are solely my own. The "Dump it here" thread is an open platform, & I welcome any alternative perspectives to continue learning & improving. I firmly believe that respectful dialogue, even with opposing views, is essential to growth & development. If you feel that I have been unfair or inaccurate in my posts, I am open to hearing your perspective & correcting any misunderstandings. Your contributions to the "Dump it here" thread have been valuable, & I hope they will continue.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

" I only buy when the "Percentage of advancing positions in the watchlist exceeds 50%" & sell when the percentage of advancing positions in the watchlist is under 25%"

I'm a little dumb. Can you elaborate on "advancing positions"? Is that like signals, aka positions, generated by the system, or do you mean "advancing" symbols within the watchlist. So in the XAO, if 50% of symbols are rising, then we're good to buy?

@Nick Radge thank you for your interest in my "PercentageUp" timing filter. I try not to talk in technical terms as this is a beginner's thread but for you, I can expand the explanation & construction of this filter.

The "PercentageUp Filter" calculates the percentage of stocks in a watchlist that have closed higher than their open price averaged over a nPeriod removing the weighting from each position in the watchlist. The code first gets the watchlist symbols & then loops through each symbol in the watchlist. For each symbol, the code sets the foreign symbol & calculates the percentage of bars where the close price is higher than the open price. The code then saves the total number of bars & the number of bars where the close price is higher than the open price to static variables.

The percentage of bars where the close price is higher than the open price is then calculated by dividing the number of bars where the close price is higher than the open price by the total number of bars & multiplying by 100. The code then sets the PercentageBullish variable to "True" if the percentage of bars where the close price is higher than the open price is greater than 50%, & sets the PercentageBearish variable to "True" if the percentage of bars where the close price is higher than the open price is less than 25.

Finally, the "PercentageUp" variable is set to "True" if the PercentageBullish variable is True. Each variable "PercentageBullish variable" & the "PercentageBearish" variable performs completely different functions within the strategy.

Simply, the "PercentageUp Filter" is constantly calculating the percentage of stocks in a watchlist that have a bullish or bearish trend based on their closing & opening prices. The "PercentageUp" code retrieves the user-defined value for the watchlist filter using the GetOption() function & assigns it to the variable. Then, it uses CategoryGetSymbols() function to retrieve a list of symbols in the watchlist specified by the categoryWatchlist argument.

Next, the code initialises variables Up, Total, & period to zero. The If statement then checks whether the Status() function returns zero for the parameters, indicating that the code is being executed for the first time. If so, the code enters a loop that iterates through each symbol in the watchlist using a "for loop".

Within the loop, the code sets the current symbol as the foreign symbol using the SetForeign() function, which prepares the AFL for working with data from that symbol. It then calculates the percentage increase in price by dividing the Close price by the Open price, & increments the Up variable if the result is greater than 1 (indicating a bullish trend). It also increments the period variable if the Close price is not null. Finally, the code restores the price arrays to their initial state using RestorePriceArrays().

After the loop has been completed, the code saves the values of the Up & period variables to static variables using the StaticVarSet() function. Convert that to a ribbon & it's easy to understand the timing of this filter.

XAO time stamp (27/3/2023 @1pm)
At times a picture paints a thousand words.






Skate.

 

[Skate]

Timing is a critical factor when buying & selling a position
There is no better time to buy a position than when there is a larger percentage of the individual constituents are rising than not within the market or index you are trading. Overall, the price of a position can fluctuate significantly over time, making it ideal to buy when its price is low (at the start of a confirmed trend) & sell when the price is high (or momentum is stalling) to maximise your profits. However, predicting when a stock's price will rise or fall can be challenging & unpredictable. There are several reasons why timing is crucially important when buying a position.

The name of the game is taking advantage of market trends
The stock market can experience fluctuations, & it's essential to be aware of these trends. If you buy a stock when the market is on an upward trend, you may be able to sell it at a higher price later, making a profit. Yet, holding a position too long & it's very easy to turn a profitable position into a loss. It's the "selling" that determines the profitability of any strategy & it's very important to time this procedure precisely.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

How do you maximise your returns?
Buying a stock at the right time can lead to higher returns, that's a given. For instance, if you purchase a stock when it's at its lowest price & it later increases in value, you can make a significant profit. This is why "timing the market" is so critical. Opportunities come more often than funds will allow so never be disappointed in missing a signal move.

Reducing your risk
Buying a stock when its price is high can be risky as there is a higher possibility of a price correction, leading to losses. When the "PercentageUp" ribbon turns red markets/indexes usually follow with a retracement. By timing your purchase, you can mitigate risks & improve your chances of making a profit.

Overall, timing is super crucial
When buying or selling any position the timing can affect your potential returns & overall trading results. Therefore, it's important to do your research, stay informed about market trends, & have a solid "trading plan & strategy" so you can make an informed decision about when to buy & sell any or even your next positions.

It's that time again
To hop off the soapbox.


Skate.

 

[monkey_zu]

Are you trading just the watchlist, or is the watchlist selected to be representative of the overall market (ie your watchlist is what you believe is the market leaders so you expect them to rise before the market rises)?

 

[Skate]

Are you trading just the watchlist, or is the watchlist selected to be representative of the overall market (ie your watchlist is what you believe is the market leaders so you expect them to rise before the market rises)?

Hello @monkey_zu, I trade by following a watchlist, which can consist of anything, but in my case, I focus on the XAO, also known as the All Ordinaries Index. I prefer to limit my trades to this index. I recently brought the "PercentageUp Filter" to the attention of @Nick Radge, after he requested comments on his Twitter feed. I have shared numerous posts about this timing filter, emphasizing its correlation with rising markets. If you are interested to know more, use the [Search] function of the forum using keywords by Skate.

Skate.

 

[monkey_zu]

I guess what I'm asking is, is the watchlist just whatever you are interested in trading, or is the selection of what goes onto the watchlist really the 'magic sauce'? Surely if they are correlated to the start of an uptrend in the XOA, then it's the constituents of the list, rather than the way the variable is calculated, that is important because they must be frontrunners?

 

[Nick Radge]

Thank you for the explanation of the PercentageUp filter.

Breadth filters have merit in some forms, but are not necessarily robust across a variety of strategies. Indeed, when I test breadth filters, I see instances where they can work well, yet on different strategies, they fall over. Not a good sign of robustness.

Unfortunately with just 1-year of backtested data, no stress testing data and no historical constituent data, it's difficult to assign any credibility to what you're showing. My only guess, based on my limited experience, is that there is data mining at work.

Until further evidence is provided I have nothing more to add to this discussion.

 

[Skate]

I guess what I'm asking is, is the watchlist just whatever you are interested in trading

Correct.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Thank you for the explanation of the PercentageUp filter.

Breadth filters have merit in some forms, but are not necessarily robust across a variety of strategies. Indeed, when I test breadth filters, I see instances where they can work well, yet on different strategies, they fall over. Not a good sign of robustness.

Unfortunately with just 1-year of backtested data, no stress testing data and no historical constituent data, it's difficult to assign any credibility to what you're showing. My only guess, based on my limited experience, is that there is data mining at work.

Until further evidence is provided I have nothing more to add to this discussion.

@Nick Radge, I want to thank you for responding to my suggestion regarding a timing filter that has worked well in my trading. I shared the idea and its mechanics with you so that you could fulfill your promise to "code up the idea & check it against your base system".

However, I was disappointed that you dismissed the timing filter so quickly without assessing its potential. I hope that you will reconsider & give it a fair evaluation. I agree that breadth filters may not be universally robust across all strategies, & their effectiveness can vary depending on the market conditions.

I understand your scepticism about the validity of my "PercentageUp Filter" due to the limited backtested data I've provided. I also appreciate your concern about avoiding data mining in developing trading strategies. Thank you again for your feedback, & I will keep your points in mind as I continue to refine my approach to trading.

Skate.

 

[monkey_zu]

So, I can make a list, any constituents (of XAO), any size of list, and if half of them are rising it will correlate to a rise in the overall market? Seems something is missing here

 

[rcw1]

So, I can make a list, any constituents (of XAO), any size of list, and if half of them are rising it will correlate to a rise in the overall market? Seems something is missing here

Good evening monkey_zu:
Welcome to Aussie Stock Forums. Not entirely sure what you are trying to say.
Have read of this and see how you go.

Watchlist: Definition, Purpose, and How To Create One

A watchlist is a list of securities being monitored for potential trading or investing opportunities.

www.investopedia.com

Hope this helps.
Have a very nice evening.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Skate]

So, I can make a list, any constituents (of XAO), any size of list, and if half of them are rising it will correlate to a rise in the overall market? Seems something is missing here

@monkey_zu the "PercentageUp Filter" that I've been discussing is essentially a market timing filter that helps me time my entry into the market. To gain a better understanding of how this filter works, I suggest researching the filter using the [Search] function using the keyword "PercentageUp" as posted by Skate.

There, you'll find a wealth of information, including a detailed discussion of the filter & my explanations of its mechanics. While there may be some repetition of information, it will provide a more comprehensive understanding of the filter's benefits & limitations. I appreciate your interest & willingness to learn more about my approach.



Skate.

 

[monkey_zu]

Good evening monkey_zu:
Welcome to Aussie Stock Forums. Not entirely sure what you are trying to say.
Have read of this and see how you go.

Watchlist: Definition, Purpose, and How To Create One

A watchlist is a list of securities being monitored for potential trading or investing opportunities.

www.investopedia.com

Hope this helps.
Have a very nice evening.

Kind regards
rcw1

Skate is saying that his percentageup filter is based on checking if more than 50% of his watchlist are trending higher, and that this same filter is very accurate in signalling the start of an upswing of the XAO. But the watchlist is not selected as the market leaders, and are just what he is interested in trading. Just seems to me the size and makeup of the list must have some impact on how well it correlates to the start of a market swing. Or I'm missing something, which is very possible.

 

[monkey_zu]

@monkey_zu the "PercentageUp Filter" that I've been discussing is essentially a market timing filter that helps me time my entry into the market. To gain a better understanding of how this filter works, I suggest researching the filter using the [Search] function using the keyword "PercentageUp" as posted by Skate.

There, you'll find a wealth of information, including a detailed discussion of the filter & my explanations of its mechanics. While there may be some repetition of information, it will provide a more comprehensive understanding of the filter's benefits & limitations. I appreciate your interest & willingness to learn more about my approach.

View attachment 155025

Skate.

Thanks I'll have a look

 

[monkey_zu]

Thanks I'll have a look

I did a search. Not really any more info under 'percentageup'. So the watchlist you are using in your filter is the same as the watchlist you are trading? Does making a watchlist from a random selection from the XAO universe change the results?

 

[Skate]

I did a search. Not really any more info under 'percentageup'. So the watchlist you are using in your filter is the same as the watchlist you are trading? Does making a watchlist from a random selection from the XAO universe change the results?

Theoretically you could use any watchlist. As I haven’t researched what you are asking I can’t give to an affinities answer.

Skate.

 

[Nick Radge]

"I understand your scepticism about the validity of my "PercentageUp Filter" due to the limited backtested data I've provided"

So post a 20-yr backtest. And do so with the correct data.

Can't see why it's so difficult.

 

[Skate]

"I understand your scepticism about the validity of my "PercentageUp Filter" due to the limited backtested data I've provided"

So post a 20-yr backtest. And do so with the correct data.

Can't see why it's so difficult.

@Nick Radge, I understand that you may have further questions about the 'PercentageUp Filter.' However, before asking for more details, I would appreciate it if you could review the information & evidence I have already shared with you.

The timing filter is designed to enhance the performance of any strategy, & I am confident that it can have a significant positive impact on your base system. Instead of repeatedly asking for additional information, I kindly request that you prioritise studying the materials I have provided & conduct your independent research on the timing filter.

Please keep in mind that no matter how much additional material I supply, it will never be exhaustive enough,

Skate.

 

[ducati916]

Alternatively, you can just use the ADX. Exactly the same principle.



Picks a trend up or down.

0-25 is no trend.
25-100 trend

jog on
duc