Dump it Here

[MovingAverage]

Holy Frack!!

The thing that I was really surprised about is that when I asked it to generate the swing system where average trade profit was 5% it added a few lines of AFL that used ATR to filter out relatively low volatile stocks—theory being low volatile stocks weren’t capable of generating 5% profit

 

[Newt]

You inspired me to finish signing up properly with ChatGPT thanks MA. Will have to play. Never would have thought to ask it to generate AFL in a million years. Impressive.

Would be interested in how you go testing its ideas - could be a new thread idea.

Separately, are your non-BO systems/MR etc doing any good in this current trading environment?

 

[MovingAverage]

You inspired me to finish signing up properly with ChatGPT thanks MA. Will have to play. Never would have thought to ask it to generate AFL in a million years. Impressive.

Would be interested in how you go testing its ideas - could be a new thread idea.

Separately, are your non-BO systems/MR etc doing any good in this current trading environment?

I’ve only being playing with ChatGPT to generate AFL code this past week but have to say my first impressions from this week are that it’s seems reasonable at generating base code which can then be “tuned” to my requirement. It is far from perfect code, but certainly save a lot of time. I’ve found that the more specific I am with my requests the better the code is. For example, when I asked it for code with a 15% DD it inserted a stop loss and interestingly inserted code for ATR based position sizing. I also found asking it to generate the code specific to ASX (my interest) made for some interesting code variations. Was hoping to have some of the backtesting on the ChatGPT code done today but personal commitments got in the way so hoping to share result here early next week.
Yes, my two main live trading system are a break out and a mean reversion swing system. Unsurprisingly the Breakout system has been struggling (as most breakout systems are) but the swing system has been doing pretty well this past 3/4 months. If you’re interested I’ll post up the swing system actual live trade results for you tomorrow.

 

[Newt]

Yes, my two main live trading system are a break out and a mean reversion swing system. Unsurprisingly the Breakout system has been struggling (as most breakout systems are) but the swing system has been doing pretty well this past 3/4 months. If you’re interested I’ll post up the swing system actual live trade results for you tomorrow.

Yes please. Never had much luck with MR for ASX, so would be interested MA. Also in any figures for your ChatGPT work too. Interesting stuff

 

[MovingAverage]

Yes please. Never had much luck with MR for ASX, so would be interested MA. Also in any figures for your ChatGPT work too. Interesting stuff

Here is the summary of my swing trades over the past 3 months. Few things for you to keep in mind--my position sizing is dynamic so dollar profit amount can vary for the same % gain, I enter on open but more often than not close out a position intra-day but in some instances can close out a position at open of the following day. For those not familiar with swing trading profit on each trade tends to be slim.

I could get all trades on the one screen so there are 4 other trades not show here that occurred in the first week of Dec. 3 of those trades were closed in the green while one closed in the red, but either way what is shown below will give you a feel for it's activity over past three months.

 

[Rabbithop]

Pressing for time while overseas so I am gonna dump it here. Watch BRN...what a up rise..I am a holder.
Any comment on my call for LYN at 7 n PLS at 4...both for low n trading purpose.

 

[noirua]

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[Skate]

Nick Radge has been known to pop in from time to time here

It's been a while
Having other matters to attend to has resulted in the lack of time to make comments in the "Dump it Here" thread. @Nick Radge made a great Twitter post today about the logic of waiting for favorable market conditions.

Nick is reaching out for something new
There has also been a kind gesture of Nick to test the perceived logic vs the data. Well, I have such an idea, of using a "Percentage Up Filter" an indicator that I've made many posts about. I've explained the logic behind the idea & the direct correlations of this indicator in relation to the markets.

More to come.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

The Percentage Up Filter
If @Nick Radge takes up this challenge to test the perceived logic vs the data of this indicator that calculates the percentage of stocks in a watchlist that have a bullish or bearish trend based on their closing & opening prices. The indicator loops through the symbols in a watchlist calculates the percentage of stocks with a bullish trend & assigns a value to the variable in an eleven-step process.

This metrics alone decide when I should buy
Let me qualify this last statement. The "Percentage Up Filter" decides WHEN to buy not WHAT to buy. Using the "Percentage Up Filter" improves the accuracy of my strategy by avoiding the negative impact of an Index Filter that Nick commonly uses. (By the way, I think an “Index Filter” is better than nothing)

Skate.

 

[rcw1]

Welcome back Skate, very nice to see your posts.

Kind regards
rcw1

 

[Skate]

Over the years I’ve created my share of indicators
They are never perfect, but they work well for me. I have observed that there is a defined correlation between the "Percentage Up Filter" above 50% and the All-Ordinaries Index rising at the same time, & restricting trading during these periods increases the chances of profitability.

2023 hasn't been kind to trend traders
In the next few posts, I'll give the signals since 1st January 2023 & you will also notice when I'm standing aside. Also, I'll post a few graphics that should be interesting & one that will be an eye-opener.

In conclusion
Incorporating metrics into the buy condition & using the observed correlation could be an essential step toward improving trading success. When the "Percentage Indicator is above 50% (the ribbon is green) it's a safe time to enter the markets & it definitely works for me.

The All Ordinaries
The chart below demonstrates the correlation between the "Percentage Up Filter" that signals a safe entry point just when the market is starting to rise.




Skate.

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Over the years I’ve created my share of indicators
They are never perfect, but they work well for me. I have observed that there is a defined correlation between the "Percentage Up Filter" above 50% and the All-Ordinaries Index rising at the same time, & restricting trading during these periods increases the chances of profitability.

2023 hasn't been kind to trend traders
In the next few posts, I'll give the signals since 1st January 2023 & you will also notice when I'm standing aside. Also, I'll post a few graphics that should be interesting & one that will be an eye-opener.

In conclusion
Incorporating metrics into the buy condition & using the observed correlation could be an essential step toward improving trading success. When the "Percentage Indicator is above 50% (the ribbon is green) it's a safe time to enter the markets & it definitely works for me.

The All Ordinaries
The chart below demonstrates the correlation between the "Percentage Up Filter" that signals a safe entry point just when the market is starting to rise.

View attachment 154724


Skate.

Looks interesting. Like a composite index on Amibroker, or something different?

AFL Function Reference - ADDTOCOMPOSITE

www.amibroker.com

.

 

[Skate]

The "Percentage Up Filter" decides WHEN to buy not WHAT to buy
Let me post up all the buy & sell signals from one of my strategies for this calendar year 2023.

The "Exploration Analysis" Signals
This analysis is simple to read, understand & execute, nothing could be simpler. This report is colour coded & even explains why the position was sold with the "weeks" in the trade.




The Backtest Signals
These are the corresponding signals generated through the Backtest method, but not my preferred method as the backtest has been repainted with additional information (after the markets open) rather than before. I trade in the pre-auction so it's critical I have the information displayed in the format that CommSec uses making the process extremely simple.



Next, I'll display the action & results from those trades
Also, I post up a "Backtest Report" that displays the results & important metrics that accompany those trades.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

When Trend Trading Works
@Nick Radge Twitter post graphically displays in a nutshell why trend trading works. Sitting on the sidelines during the other periods adds profitability to the strategy returns.



The expanded view
The green shading is the backtest period of January 2023.



Trading during 2023
The trading results have been profitable. In the next post, I'll post the backtest for that period & the trades taken.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Backtest Report (2023)
The backtest is from 1st January 2023. (10 X $20k positions)








The trades
These are the 10 trades taken & their results.




Best Result (WBT)
From the trades list above the chart for (ASX:WBT) displays the signal bar & the buy-sell bars). A take-profit stop exited the position. It appears the exit was a little premature but as they say, "Little fish are sweet"





Worst Result (GOR)
After looking at the chart the position was setting up nicely but unfortunately, it didn't follow through.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Nick's WTT Comparison
Over the same period, @Nick Radge WTT strategy struggled to find traction. To be fair this is my version of his strategy & the corresponding results. If they are wildly off the mark, I'm sure Nick will correct the records by posting his offical backtest results.

To be honest I'm not a big fan of the way Nick posts results
Each time the backtest report is updated all the relevant results tend to "shapeshift" meaning they tend not to be all that accurate with each corresponding update. The results are not correlated.

Let me explain what I mean
Previously I gave captures directly from his website that displays the issue I have with the way he displays information that is his promotional material to sell a product.

Previous screen capture
Nick was given the opportunity to explain but chose to stay silent on the discrepancies highlighted below.




Skate.

 

[DrBourse]

View attachment 154723

It's been a while
Having other matters to attend to has resulted in the lack of time to make comments in the "Dump it Here" thread. @Nick Radge made a great Twitter post today about the logic of waiting for favorable market conditions.

Nick is reaching out for something new
There has also been a kind gesture of Nick to test the perceived logic vs the data. Well, I have such an idea, of using a "Percentage Up Filter" an indicator that I've made many posts about. I've explained the logic behind the idea & the direct correlations of this indicator in relation to the markets.

More to come.

Skate.

Great to see you back on deck Skate.

 

[Nick Radge]

Wow...that took all of 12 minutes to start trolling again....

...imagine how good you'd be if you spent more time working on yourself rather than putting your time into dumping on me

 

[Skate]

WTF
@Nick Radge could you explain why there are discrepancies in the Backtest results? The Monthly Data table is from your official website updated to November 2022. Yet the latest update of the WTT Strategy displays something totally different. The WTT strategy from your "TurnKey Range" with favorable backtest results to clinch the deal.





The latestest WTT backtest results is "wacko-jacko"
All I'm saying is for you to compare the pair. I'm afraid at this point I'm calling bull****-on-the -latest-results.

Silence is not golden
Nick, do you have an explanation for why the backtest results are off the chart as there is no correlation?




Side-by-side comparison
I'm sure "blind Freddy" could spot the difference



Confirmation
This capture has been lifted from "The Chartist" website, displaying there is no difference between the information lift in isolation with the entire capture.



Skate.

 

[Nick Radge]

Yes, I can explain. Its very simple actually. And I have explained to people that have approached me with a genuine query...which was only one btw.