Dump it Here

[Skate]

For a start I don't believe there should be a Technical Analysis V Fundamental Analysis. In my opinion a trader/investor should use both and to the best of that person's ability. I am stronger at TA as I am visual and can see patterns quickly and easily. I can recognize when a chart is going up as opposed to down. This is not as simple as it sounds. You need to practice recognizing this.

Some people look at a chart for a three month period and it looks as though it is rising. If you look at the same chart for five, ten or even fifteen years, it may be falling with a massive downward overhead trendline/resistance line which can cut your trade right out with a single blow. I still struggle with FA but recently looking at Luu's FA charts I am bginning to see some interesting things I had never seen before. I am beginning to see what is potentially important FA information. I just needed to see that stuff on a chart.

I worry sometimes when people quote companies' "fundamentals" and then parrot the bullsh!t story line put out to catch the gullible.

There is always an underlying reason for the price of a company at any given time. It is the entire combination of all the FA known and the insider information that is reflected in the price.
Neither FA nor TA can save you from a massive price collapse but normally a serious price collapse tends to only happen to a stock when it has been travelling sideways at a higher level or has already started falling.

My favourite TA tools - Very long historical views of a company, hand drawn support and resistance/trend lines, Positive Volume Index, MACD, volume, swing trade calculations, certain patterns and I am now beginning to look at Fibonacci levels as well.

TA does not have to be this complicated though. Just recognizing the price up ( rising support line), price top across (overhead resistance line), price down shape (falling overhead resistance line) price bottom across (support line) is good enough for a person who feels more comfortable with FA.

Short term trading is really only viable using TA. Setting entry and exit levels is critical for successful trading IMO regardless if you are going long or short.

Bottom line, I would never enter a longer term trade without doing a full TA and to the best of my abilities FA analysis. Using only one technique is like fighting a battle with only one arm.

Ann, reading chart patterns & researching the fundamentals of a company is subjective & is wholly in the eye of the beholder as the interpretation can differ from one trader to another.

Fundamental analysis (No - it's not for me)
Fundamental analysis is no (fun) to carry out & it's time consuming, basically a background check of how company has performed and operated in the past assuming the information passed on is accurate.

The problems with Chart Patterns (I don't know what will happen tomorrow let alone using hindsight to determine it)
Patterns looks good in the middle of the chart when you can only trade at the hard right edge. We all tend to be experts looking at chart patterns in hindsight.

Coding (yes, I can relate to this method of trading as it gives me confidence to place a trade - a mechanical trading system)
Coding a trading idea stands head & shoulders above all the other tools available to me in my trading tool box.(IMHO)

Coding a strategy works for me & for others it's probably a different kettle of fish.

What's the nice thing about people
They are all different

What's the nice thing about traders
They are all different

Skate

 

[Ann]

Ann, reading chart patterns & researching the fundamentals of a company is subjective & is wholly in the eye of the beholder as the interpretation can differ from one trader to another.

Pretty much everything in life is subjective and can be interpreted in a multitude of ways, why should TA and FA be any different Skate? So where is the problem with this?

Fundamental analysis (No - it's not for me)
Fundamental analysis is no (fun) to carry out & it's time consuming, basically a background check of how company has performed and operated in the past assuming the information passed on is accurate.

One only needs to find those few critical pieces of information and have them presented in a way which can be interpreted by the individual to offer insight and value, but that will be subjective. If a person has no idea what they are looking for, they will rarely find it. One needs to work out what is being looked for and then go after that information, disregarding all else.

The problems with Chart Patterns (I don't know what will happen tomorrow let alone using hindsight to determine it)
Patterns looks good in the middle of the chart when you can only trade at the hard right edge. We all tend to be experts looking at chart patterns in hindsight.

Not so Skate, as long as you can draw support/resistance lines going up, across and down you will see the potential direction and there will be warning levels from which to trade regardless of which side of the mountain you are looking. You just need to practice. I can see the potential future of TLS quite easily, I bet a lot of people who can't even chart will see what I can see. But as with all things in the future, stuff happens and there are no guarantees in life, same with a chart. However if you are watching the road ahead you can see the white lines either side, or yellow in this case.

 

[tech/a]

Id like to comment on fear of failure.

This was something as a youngster I often faced.
I learnt why. (I had fear).

Financially it was because I was risking a very large % of net wealth.
Having chosen to work for myself and create my own future it was always with me.

Failure meant a definite change in my plan for life.
I made my own wage for many years and at 40 found the power of leverage and compounding in property.
Suddenly I had a buffer—-equity in properties so expanded infrastructure in business including premises.

Always with my safety net.

Funny thing is I never used it
Never had to
That sense of safety in shackled me!

So now I have safety plans from insuring all projects over $100k and we do many in the 7 figure relm.To stops in trading and management plans for everything.

I’ve not felt that fear for many many years.

 

[Skate]

Id like to comment on fear of failure.

This was something as a youngster I often faced.
I learnt why. (I had fear).

Financially it was because I was risking a very large % of net wealth.
Having chosen to work for myself and create my own future it was always with me.

Failure meant a definite change in my plan for life.
I made my own wage for many years and at 40 found the power of leverage and compounding in property.
Suddenly I had a buffer—-equity in properties so expanded infrastructure in business including premises.

Always with my safety net.

Funny thing is I never used it
Never had to
That sense of safety in shackled me!

So now I have safety plans from insuring all projects over $100k and we do many in the 7 figure relm.To stops in trading and management plans for everything.

I’ve not felt that fear for many many years.

tech/a, this is exactly how others learn. (from your experience)

Skate.

 

[Ann]

Id like to comment on fear of failure.

This was something as a youngster I often faced.
I learnt why. (I had fear).

Financially it was because I was risking a very large % of net wealth.
Having chosen to work for myself and create my own future it was always with me.

Failure meant a definite change in my plan for life.
I made my own wage for many years and at 40 found the power of leverage and compounding in property.
Suddenly I had a buffer—-equity in properties so expanded infrastructure in business including premises.

Always with my safety net.

Funny thing is I never used it
Never had to
That sense of safety in shackled me!

So now I have safety plans from insuring all projects over $100k and we do many in the 7 figure relm.To stops in trading and management plans for everything.

I’ve not felt that fear for many many years.

tech/a, this is exactly how others learn. (from your experience)

Skate.

What was your personal take away lesson from tech/a's comments Skate?

 

[Smurf1976]

For a start I don't believe there should be a Technical Analysis V Fundamental Analysis. In my opinion a trader/investor should use both and to the best of that person's ability.

I still struggle with FA but recently looking at Luu's FA charts I am bginning to see some interesting things I had never seen before. I am beginning to see what is potentially important FA information. I just needed to see that stuff on a chart.

Using any and all tools which bring benefit seems like the sensible approach to me so agreed there. It's not FA versus TA, they're not mutually exclusive.

Human minds work differently however, sometimes very differently. You see FA and visualise it on a chart. I see one of your charts, change it into words and go and think about it well away from any visual reference (eg go for a walk).

Different approaches suit different people.

 

[tech/a]

Fundamental or Technical
Same result according to brokers figures
Over 90% fail

So you need something different
Standard F/A and T/A are hopeless.

 

[Ann]

Fundamental or Technical
Same result according to brokers figures
Over 90% fail

So you need something different
Standard F/A and T/A are hopeless.

A poor workman blames his tools tech/a. How many of your trades fail?

 

[Skate]

What was your personal take away lesson from tech/a's comments Skate?

Ann, thank you for the opportunity to unpack tech/a heartfelt post, I trust you ask with interest.

tech/a shoes
Most who have owned a business would be nodding in agreement when reading tech/a's post, most business owners have been his shoes.

Crippling
The fear of failure is crippling & no better demonstrated when venturing into business for yourself.

Business Loan
To be successful in securing a business loan it's needs to be secured by your family home. The first sign of worry comes from a lack of cash flow, arguments start with your suppliers, banks, you even start becoming delinquent on your rent not to mention the stress the family relationship is under - Ann, when your relationship breaks down its all over.

What do you lose
Your Marriage
Your family home
Your Car
You lose everything (& sometimes your own life)

HINT
Most marriages fall apart because of money & the lack of it, (I've never seen a relationship fall apart from having too much money) financial stress can tear the most loving relationships apart.

Business happiness is a positive cash flow
In business, happiness is a positive cash flow. Business revolves around money, that's it in a nutshell.

Put yourself in tech/a shoes
Ann, if you have started a business from scratch or even purchased a business you would have understood tech/a post, a post from this heart - if not you wouldn't understand.

Fear of failure
Ann, everybody has a fear of failure at some level - at times we’ve all been fearful that perhaps we are not enough. Even when we know what to do, our fear can keep us from executing our plans.

Fear related to trading
We all feel that sinking feeling in our guts after we enter a trade and that trade go slightly against us our emotions kick in and if the fear is strong enough, we might cut the trade short to escape the unpleasantness, hijacked by our emotions encouraging us to do the wrong thing at the wrong time.

Fear stops us from having a go
Many people never start trading because they’re worried about losing their money. It feels like you have to spend a lot of time and energy to get it right and if you don’t, then you might lose all of your money. So fear or self-doubt keep you from getting started. The very act of getting started is much more important than getting it right.

Ann, with additional information, please re-read tech/a post

Skate.

 

[satanoperca]

Id like to comment on fear of failure.

This was something as a youngster I often faced.
I learnt why. (I had fear).

Financially it was because I was risking a very large % of net wealth.
Having chosen to work for myself and create my own future it was always with me.

Failure meant a definite change in my plan for life.
I made my own wage for many years and at 40 found the power of leverage and compounding in property.
Suddenly I had a buffer—-equity in properties so expanded infrastructure in business including premises.

Always with my safety net.

Funny thing is I never used it
Never had to
That sense of safety in shackled me!

So now I have safety plans from insuring all projects over $100k and we do many in the 7 figure relm.To stops in trading and management plans for everything.

I’ve not felt that fear for many many years.

So you have never failed?

Or have reduced your fear of potentially failing?

 

[Skate]

Pretty much everything in life is subjective and can be interpreted in a multitude of ways, why should TA and FA be any different Skate? So where is the problem with this?



One only needs to find those few critical pieces of information and have them presented in a way which can be interpreted by the individual to offer insight and value, but that will be subjective. If a person has no idea what they are looking for, they will rarely find it. One needs to work out what is being looked for and then go after that information, disregarding all else.



Not so Skate, as long as you can draw support/resistance lines going up, across and down you will see the potential direction and there will be warning levels from which to trade regardless of which side of the mountain you are looking. You just need to practice. I can see the potential future of TLS quite easily, I bet a lot of people who can't even chart will see what I can see. But as with all things in the future, stuff happens and there are no guarantees in life, same with a chart. However if you are watching the road ahead you can see the white lines either side, or yellow in this case.

View attachment 91287

Why I lean towards a coded strategy ?

Removing your emotions
Mechanically removing your emotions from your strategy is a big reason why systems trading is becoming so popular. Trading outside market hours also helps avoid the mania of the open market.

Trendfollowing
I use a weekly trendfollowing strategy & place my orders before the market opens hoping to be settled at the opening price of the day.

It also makes backtesting simulations much easier. There are so many more advantages of a mechanical trading system than those few points listed.

I'll be back trading on Monday, sitting on the sidelines takes its toll.

Skate.

 

[Ann]

Why I lean towards a coded strategy ?

Removing your emotions
Mechanically removing your emotions from your strategy is a big reason why systems trading is becoming so popular. Trading outside market hours also helps avoid the mania of the open market.

I don't have emotions when I trade Skate. I have my entry and exits in place before I even commit a dollar.

Trendfollowing
I use a weekly trendfollowing strategy & place my orders before the market opens hoping to be settled at the opening price of the day.

It also makes backtesting simulations much easier. There are so many more advantages of a mechanical trading system than those few points listed.

I'll be back trading on Monday, sitting on the sidelines takes its toll.

I like to be in control, I would never concede my control to a mechanical program created by a third person.

I am happy to sit and wait, patience can be its own reward. I like to circle my prey before bringing it down.

 

[Skate]

I don't have emotions when I trade Skate. I have my entry and exits in place before I even commit a dollar.



I like to be in control, I would never concede my control to a mechanical program created by a third person.

I am happy to sit and wait, patience can be its own reward. I like to circle my prey before bringing it down.

Ann, let me repeat myself..

What's the nice thing about people
They are all different

What's the nice thing about traders
They are all different

Skate.

 

[tech/a]

A poor workman blames his tools tech/a. How many of your trades fail?

Discretionary index trading short and long 30-40%

Systematic
When it’s turned on long and short
60% for 1 and 48% the other

So you have never failed?

Or have reduced your fear of potentially failing?

Failed heaps of times
No fear of failure it’s expected

 

[Ann]

I asked a simple question of you... "What was your personal take away lesson from tech/a's comments Skate?"

I was not expecting a diatribe from you just a simple response. Addressing me by name once is sufficient, twice is permissible any more than that sounds condescending. Avoid over using someone's name, it is rude and sounds manipulative.

Ann, thank you for the opportunity to unpack tech/a heartfelt post, I trust you ask with interest.

I did.

tech/a shoes
Most who have owned a business would be nodding in agreement when reading tech/a's post, most business owners have been his shoes.

My father owned an engineering company. It convinced me it is a fool's path.

Crippling
The fear of failure is crippling & no better demonstrated when venturing into business for yourself.

I learnt from my father running your own business was totally rdiculous and not worth the effort.

Business Loan
To be successful in securing a business loan it's needs to be secured by your family home. The first sign of worry comes from a lack of cash flow, arguments start with your suppliers, banks, you even start becoming delinquent on your rent not to mention the stress the family relationship is under - Ann, when your relationship breaks down its all over.

Loans are poison, you dance to another man and the economies tune.
When the relationship breaks down, often your family have no where else to go and no means to leave because all your assets are 'in the business'.

What do you lose
Your Marriage
Your family home
Your Car
You lose everything (& sometimes your own life)

Unless you always seem to manage to find another line of credit, there is always a con to be had....my sociopathic father's teachings.

HINT
Most marriages fall apart because of money & the lack of it, (I've never seen a relationship fall apart from having too much money) financial stress can tear the most loving relationships apart.

Money has nothing to do with a good relationship. Buffet's first marriage failed, his wife complained he was too interested in making money, Amazon's owners marriage has just failed, in fact the more money one has the greater the risk for multiple marriage failures it appears....how many wives has Trump had?

Business happiness is a positive cash flow
In business, happiness is a positive cash flow. Business revolves around money, that's it in a nutshell.

Bingo, that is my #1 FA indicator for a strong business. See FA isn't so hard if you think about it Skate!

Put yourself in tech/a shoes
Ann, if you have started a business from scratch or even purchased a business you would have understood tech/a post, a post from this heart - if not you wouldn't understand.

You have no idea how much I know about the harrowing existance of running your own business, I lived in the nightmare from birth.

Fear of failure
Ann, everybody has a fear of failure at some level - at times we’ve all been fearful that perhaps we are not enough. Even when we know what to do, our fear can keep us from executing our plans.

There are some emotions I can't feel. Fear is one of them, it just converts to the feeling of power. I quite welcome failure, it is a great teacher.

However I do understand that fear can paralyze but maybe that is a good thing, it may be a person's protector.

Fear related to trading
We all feel that sinking feeling in our guts after we enter a trade and that trade go slightly against us our emotions kick in and if the fear is strong enough, we might cut the trade short to escape the unpleasantness, hijacked by our emotions encouraging us to do the wrong thing at the wrong time.

As I said before, I don't have emotions when I trade, I have an entry and a stop-loss level which I stay with. I am never too injured by a reversal. Although, these days they rarely occur unless I am just mucking around with a test trade, which I do sometimes.

Fear stops us from having a go
Many people never start trading because they’re worried about losing their money. It feels like you have to spend a lot of time and energy to get it right and if you don’t, then you might lose all of your money. So fear or self-doubt keep you from getting started. The very act of getting started is much more important than getting it right.

If you have fear, you clearly don't have confidence you know what you are doing. If you don't know what you are doing, don't trade. If one wants to trade, give yourself a budget of money you are prepared to commit to losing in order to train yourself. This then is not a loss it is an investment in education and should be regarded as such. If you are still not confident after you have invested your education fund, find another area of investment or just go for a LIC or an ETF.

Ann, with additional information, please re-read tech/a post

I read it slowly and carefully the first time. You have given me no additional information to warrant a re-read.

 

[Ann]

. How many of your trades fail?

Discretionary index trading short and long 30-40%

Systematic
When it’s turned on long and short
60% for 1 and 48% the other

Failed heaps of times
No fear of failure it’s expected

Crikey, I would have spat the dummy and flounced off a long time ago with losses like that! More power to you for sticking with it!

 

[Skate]

For whatever reason I find the [name/user] feels really rude and impersonal

Avoid over using someone's name, it is rude and sounds manipulative

I apologies again for being really rude to you, it was never my intentions to be manipulative.
I have refrained from using a members [name/user] in any of my posts since you brought this to my attention & in future I'll refrain from addressing you more than once.

Thank you Ann for bring this to my attention once again..

Skate.

 

[tech/a]

Crikey, I would have spat the dummy and flounced off a long time ago with losses like that! More power to you for sticking with it!

All good.

Discretionary

6/10 at 3R wins
4/10 at .7R losses

Pretty tough I know!

Systematic

4/10 at 5.6 R wins and
6/10 a5 1 R losses

Tough again but long and short trading I’m happy.

Others may do better.

I’ve not seen any of your trades Ann so can’t comment on your trading ability.
You seem to have a good handle on vanilla T/A

 

[Value Collector]

I must read the book. I enjoyed the movie.
To me it was the discovery of the McDonalds brothers original burger bar and the efficiencies they had set up.. with the convenience to the customer being rapid delivery.
I might be wrong but Kroc really discovered the real estate factor as a work around because he had problems dealing with one of the brothers? ...Ahh not sure ... I must watch it again

The book is much better than the movie, the movie is for entertainment, but the book is educational.

 

[ducati916]

While Skate, I'm sure is quite capable of defending himself if he so chose, I will do so as in my short time of reading his posts I have found him to be exceptionally polite and patient.

Also there are some rather obvious lessons to be learned.

So:

"I was not expecting a diatribe from you just a simple response. "

I suggest you look up the meaning of the underlined word.

"Addressing me by name once is sufficient, twice is permissible any more than that sounds condescending. Avoid over using someone's name, it is rude and sounds manipulative."

I would disagree.

"My father owned an engineering company. It convinced me it is a fool's path."

As a 'trader' you are self-employed. You are a 'business', unless you are employed to trade for someone [bank/hedge fund/etc].

On a bigger picture basis: without those who engage in business, we are back to hunting/gathering. Only through specialisation/diversification of production can we continue to consume: which by definition means someone has to create and run businesses. If you are an 'employee' you are employed by a business owner.

"I learnt from my father running your own business was totally rdiculous and not worth the effort."

Such a generalisation is both ill-informed and disrespectful to those that do.

"Loans are poison, you dance to another man and the economies tune.
When the relationship breaks down, often your family have no where else to go and no means to leave because all your assets are 'in the business'."

A 'loan' is a tool like any other. It can be prudent, it can be dangerous. Again, simply a generalisation without merit.

"Bingo, that is my #1 FA indicator for a strong business. See FA isn't so hard if you think about it Skate!"

As has been demonstrated on another thread, recognising legitimate cash-flow from simply cash-flow, is not as straightforward as one might imagine.

"There are some emotions I can't feel. Fear is one of them, it just converts to the feeling of power. I quite welcome failure, it is a great teacher."

Possibly you are unique in the human race.

"If you have fear, you clearly don't have confidence you know what you are doing. If you don't know what you are doing, don't trade."

Skate is referring to a 'business', not to trading. Even if it were 'trading' as a business, if you have quit your job, have taken your savings/loan/whatever and undertaken the business of trading, if your trade expectancy is below that initially contemplated and the rent/mortgage/bills/etc are due [as they always are], I would argue it is only natural to feel stress/fear.

I would seriously consider tendering an apology to Skate.

jog on
duc