Dump it Here

[Skate]

When buying "dips" turn_to_shit
When you've made a "trading or an investing mistake", cut your losses quickly as you can have another go when the market turns around & when the price starts to increase. Selling doesn't mean you can buy it back.

On the flip side
It pays to remember, before you sell a quality company, you're giving up the "long-term growth potential" of your buying decision. At times, deciding what to do next or what to do for the best can be the excruciating side of trading. It's for this very reason you need a solid trading plan "you can stick to".

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

When buying "dips" turn_to_shit
When you've made a "trading or an investing mistake", cut your losses quickly as you can have another go when the market turns around & when the price starts to increase. Selling doesn't mean you can buy it back.

On the flip side
It pays to remember, before you sell a quality company, you're giving up the "long-term growth potential" of your buying decision. At times, deciding what to do next or what to do for the best can be the excruciating side of trading. It's for this very reason you need a solid trading plan "you can stick to".

Skate.

Selling doesn't mean you can not buy it back.?

 

[Skate]

Selling doesn't mean you can not buy it back.?

Selling doesn't mean you can’t buy it back.

@qldfrog thanks for making the correction, a point I was trying to make. I have changed the word & made it bold in the quote above as the time has expired to make the change in the relevant post in question.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Long-term investors roll with the punches
There is something to behold about long-term investors, those living off the dividends don't "give_a_shit" about the fluctuations of the markets. This style of investing is less stressful when you adopt this attitude.

Big "Ben" looked like a genius
Back in 2016, I was speaking to a large investor who recounted how his family regarded him as an investment genius "for not selling" at the bottom of the 2008 financial crisis where the rest of the family did. I'll never forget the reason "why he didn't sell".

Why didn't Big "Ben" sell?
It was simply because "he didn't need the money" at the time. I've found those with money to invest, invest with "long-term growth" in mind & normally are unshakeable in their resolve.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Corrected repost
As the time has passed for a correction I have made the correction & reposting the slight change.

When buying "dips" turn_to_shit
When you've made a "trading or an investing mistake", cut your losses quickly as you can have another go when the market turns around & when the price starts to increase. Selling doesn't mean you "can't buy it back".

On the flip side
It pays to remember, before you sell a quality company, you're giving up the "long-term growth potential" of your buying decision. At times, deciding what to do next or what to do for the best can be the excruciating side of trading. It's for this very reason you need a solid trading plan "you can stick to".

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Muddling words
I've posted about muddling words before & how they can totally change the meaning/message of what was originally intended.

It's a human flaw
I often muddle words like "would & wouldn't" & now "can & can't". In my defense, which is no defense really, in my haste to post I'll make an occasional mistake because "I don't proofread", even though I should.

From the mouth of a Rhodes scholar
Tony Abbott - "however smart, however well-educated, however experienced.. is the suppository of all wisdom."

Not quite the same as a repository
Tony Abbott meant to say "the repository of all wisdom." but he was so close. We all do it from time to time.

Skate.

 

[Richard Dale]

Thanks to everyone else too. But consider - some people will never be able to hit a golf ball, no matter how much instruction or training they undertake. It's simply not in them. Well, when it comes to coding, that's me. It's not in me, and I have no desire whatsoever to learn it (beyond the basics, I mean). When I go on the AB forum, that's usually what I'm met with - "Learn to code!". I already have someone I pay for major projects. For little things like figuring out how to round some numbers, really all I'm after is the answer. I'd already tried to do it myself - in fact wasted many hours! Why do that when an expert can whip up the answer in under a minute?

Programming is best learned through trial and error. It takes a lot of it get proficient. For some, the penny drops quicker than others. Intuition is a major part of programming. It's like doing cryptic crosswords for the first time versus doing them every week for five years.

Of course, if you decide that your time is best spent elsewhere, you then need to take a skeptical view on any code provided to you since you have limited ability to even read/understand the code.

I recommend you budget for any external programming to be performed twice (or more) by independent parties in a "clean room" development process.

Develop a test suite that covers many varied inputs. If the implementations all return the same results, you can have a lot more confidence that you've got what you've paid for.

I actually do this for my own trading systems - implement in multiple environments (eg. AmiBroker, Python and RealTest). If my rules are robust they should all come out the same. If they don't, it's time to find out why... in my experience this shows various "gotchas".

 

[Skate]

I have always said "Stop losses don't always work"
And
" They never work when you need them the most"

Sorry Captain Skate and other Back-testers. That is why I don't trust any back testing that has not been done manually

@Captain_Chaza is absolutely correct in making those two observations.
(1) "Stop losses don't always work" & (2) " They never work when you need them the most"

But in defense of a "Stop Loss"
Mathematical "Stop losses" are better than nothing. Trading is unpredictable. Not knowing what's going to happen next is half the excitement of trading. Trading is a constant struggle & without a mechanical system in place, it would be near impossible for me to be profitable.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Admittedly trading has been tough this calendar year
After reading Twitter one of the traders is down $1m (ouch!!) this calendar year.

System trading
I've noticed in this game that even trading a robust strategy offers little protection when the markets are unfavourable.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

"Stop Loss" exit
I consider the last line of defense is a "Stop Loss" exit. Depending on that exit "alone" to save your bacon is dangerous. As @Captain_Chaza explained, the "Stop Loss" will let you down when you need it most.

Soccer is a team sport -10 players & a goalie
I'm just saying for the ball to get into the net, it has to pass 10 players & a goalie. I consider the goalie as the "Stop Loss" in trading "the last line of defense"

Before the price hits a "stop loss"
Consider applying additional protection to save your capital. Those who rely solely on a "Stop Loss" risk the chance of heavy drawdowns that could be much greater than they can stomach.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Trading has been tough this calendar year (2022)
But at times there were glimpses of hope during that period that system traders were able to capitalise on.

The HYBRID & PANDA Strategies
They are two mature strategies that I've posted extensively about two strategies that I have traded over many years. Both are robust & perform well when the markets are being kind. When conditions are unfavourable they simply step aside, waiting for the next rise. Both are trend systems that are not correlated.

It's been a struggle but both strategies have paid their way
The charts & records for this calendar year will be posted in the next post to show when the positions were taken & sold. Also, there were a few drawdowns marked in red that exceeded my expectations. The Exit strategy is also on full display. Trading has been tough this year but there were some good results.

Skate.

 

[DrBourse]

Hi Skate....

May as well throw my thoughts on the topic of "Stop Loss"......

IMO, Traders should not get too involved with Stop Loss points - I do not use a Conventionally Accepted Stop Loss or Trailing Stop Loss System….I feel that those systems belong to the Longer Term Investors….

Once I have in my opinion, enough Signals/Signs from my Tools of Trade, I will act immediately….For example if a Bearish Candle Pattern and/or my Indicators suggest that a pullback or downtrend is imminent I will follow those signals and exit the Trade immediately....

If I were to use a % Stop Loss System (of say 2%) and my Tools of Trade gave me enough signals to exit for say 0.5%, I would be crazy to hold and watch any small loss be increased just because that “% Stop Loss System” told me I had to wait till my losses reached that magical 2% - it would be easier to just give some money away....Admittedly I sometimes exit a trade early – but I prefer to be cautious – and if my Tools of Trade suggest continued uptrend then I can easily re-enter the Trade....

The idea is to trade when there is a trade to be made, and even then you should 'Play the Trade' (like playing a Fish), you should not trade the $$$'s - get the trades right and the $$$'s will automatically follow.....

Most Traders use strict Stop Loss systems I primarily use my Indicators as my initial Stop Loss System, when they turn Negative, I jump - the other system is a "TSL" = Trailing Stop Loss of a $/c value - so had everybody been using some sort of Stop Loss they would have a small Trading Loss to use as a Tax Ded'n....

"You can assist whatever Stop Loss System you use by "Correct Stock Selection" & "Correct $$ Management" - for example - If you invest $50k in Penny Dreadful shares you will probably activate your Stop Loss System immediately, and if you are not quick enough you could lose the lot - On the other hand $50k invested in BHP shares would be a safer trade, less risk, probably less profit but better protection for your capital".

Suggest that you try this site http://www.incrediblecharts.com/ , lots of FREE Educational Info...On the Incredible Charts Home page, top right hand side, do a search for ‘Stop Loss’...
Also see my Manual pages 112, 116 & 160...Then do a Google Search for Stop Loss - dozens of good explanations there...

A lot of Day Traders prefer to use alarms rather than Stop Loss Triggers..... Most of the Software Trading Platforms (Metastock, Incredible Charts, etc) have an alarm system that may be of use to you..... I have an average of 20-25 alarms that I review Daily.... You can usually set these alarms on a SP, an Open, a Close, a High, etc, some can be set for release of an announcement - lots of other parameters may be available depending on the program.... the obvious drawback with alarms is that you have to be online when the alarm is triggered for it to be of any value...

DrB

 

[Skate]

I do not use a Conventionally Accepted Stop Loss or Trailing Stop Loss System

@DrBourse the point of my posts today was to display why depending on a "stop loss" in isolation is not the best course of action for a system trader. Relying on precise mathematical equations gives me the confidence to keep taking the signals, the strike rate is not high but it's a profitable way for me to trade. I try to explain how I trade to those who follow my post, & having the aspiration of trading this way.

It is hard to suck up a loss or a series of losses
When trading is unkind it doesn't automatically mean there is no money to be made. As you reference BHP, you can either trade the fluctuations or invest in the company over a longer time frame, the choice is there to be made.

Investing in BHP since Jan 2021
The share price of BHP has not appreciated during this time but the dividends have been healthy. Admittedly trading BHP holds more risk but if done correctly the gains can be compounded over the same period.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

The HYBRID & PANDA Strategies
I've picked these two strategies to demonstrate the advantages of combining a few exit conditions to formulate an exit strategy rather than relying on a simple "stop loss".

The PANDA Strategy
This calendar year, in 9 months the PANDA Strategy eked out a modest return. The low drawdown of the "PANDA Strategy" restricts this strategy at times when trading is not favourable. In a bull market, this strategy grows an extra leg.


In the next post
I'll drill down a little further with the "HYBRID Strategy" to better understand what positions were entered & when they were exited. I've also marked the drawdowns that exceeded my expectations.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

The HYBRID Strategy
This strategy is a proven workhorse. I pride myself on having a respectable exit strategy but there are times a few positions will go through to the keeper.

At times "good enough" is "good enough"
Coding precise mathematical formulas on "known data" doesn't always translate well when trading against "unknown data", that's the problem with systematic trading in a nutshell.

@DrBourse touched on timing
Timing when to enter & when to exit a trade is important but how you play the 'fish' in the meantime is where the money is made. Those who buy & hold, (invest) simply ride the fluctuations. But to make serious money you need to ride the waves (trade) with precision to the best of your ability.



Drawdowns
3 times the drawdown over the last 9 months exceeded my comfort level. (marked in red)



There are times when you need to step out of the markets
Capital preservation is the number one consideration in this game. Trading is hard even in the "best of times" but if you don't know "when to hold them" & "when to fold them" it's called gambling.



Skate.

 

[marko53b]

Thoughts on Nick Radge's new Turn Key Strategy the ASX Weekly Swing Strategy?

 

[Sir Burr]

Thoughts on Nick Radge's new Turn Key Strategy the ASX Weekly Swing Strategy?

I’d be interested if there is third party testing and results provided over multiple periods plus a guarantee if errors are found, updated code provided.

Maybe someone like Thomasz

 

[Gringotts Bank]

The HYBRID Strategy
This strategy is a proven workhorse. I pride myself on having a respectable exit strategy but there are times a few positions will go through to the keeper.

At times "good enough" is "good enough"
Coding precise mathematical formulas on "known data" doesn't always translate well when trading against "unknown data", that's the problem with systematic trading in a nutshell.

@DrBourse touched on timing
Timing when to enter & when to exit a trade is important but how you play the 'fish' in the meantime is where the money is made. Those who buy & hold, (invest) simply ride the fluctuations. But to make serious money you need to ride the waves (trade) with precision to the best of your ability.

View attachment 147617

Drawdowns
3 times the drawdown over the last 9 months exceeded my comfort level. (marked in red)

View attachment 147618

There are times when you need to step out of the markets
Capital preservation is the number one consideration in this game. Trading is hard even in the "best of times" but if you don't know "when to hold them" & "when to fold them" it's called gambling.

View attachment 147619

Skate.

Do you do walk forward tests Skate? Even just a basic optimization on the first half of your data, then apply to the second half?

 

[Skate]

Do you do walk forward tests Skate? Even just a basic optimization on the first half of your data, then apply to the second half?

@Gringotts Bank all my strategies are tested within an inch of their lives.

I've had my HYBRID Strategy evaluated in the US (on the US markets) & in Europe (in their market) as I was curious if my HYBRID Strategy in its current form would be a tradable system.

Overseas Strategy Evaluation (evaluation email from Europe)
This is an (unaltered copy) of "one" email in a series that I'm prepared to share about the overseas testing of my Hybrid Strategy. I'm not prepared to discuss the results any further. The email returned to me is an unaltered summary of the Hybrid Strategy tested in Europe on a variety of markets around the world. Believing your own research is typically fraught with danger & when my money is on the line I try not to leave anything to chance.

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# email START

I found that in general, the strategy works well also in other international markets where there are a lot of inexpensive stocks. I tried some alternatives for the PositionScore but found that your criteria to be a very good fit for this system.

Thanks for the very detailed answer. Now I better understand your code and logic.

Your coding skill, in my opinion, is already pretty good since you implemented some features that are for sure far above the basics. While the original code could be refactored to achieve greater readability (something that in any case is opinionable), I did not find any major issues (the gfx part is pure aesthetics so it does not interfere with the actual trading system).

#email END
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In Short to your question
I've posted a long reply to say.. "Yes I test all my strategy constantly, testing never stops"

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Thoughts on Nick Radge's new Turn Key Strategy the ASX Weekly Swing Strategy?

@marko53b thanks for making your first post in the “Dump it here” thread. @Sir Burr gave you a great answer as it’s a brand new addition to “The Chartist Turnkey” stable. Realistically, being so new it’s far to early for other to make a comment. Further information & Backtest results can be found on the Chartist Twitter feed with a purchase link.

Skate.