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Thank you Skate, exactly the point I've been trying to make in another thread.
Thank you Skate, exactly the point I've been trying to make in another thread."If you do not find a style of trading and a trading market that match your talents and interests, you will not spend enough time in the state of flow to supercharge your learning efforts. Nor will you cultivate the second-order competence that will allow you to weather inevitable trading storms. Finding a niche means so much more than simply making money or having fun. It is the discovery of that worthy challenge that energizes you, tapping into your deepest sense of meaning.”
Don't mean to bring this thread back to crypto, but this headline's reference certainly gave me a good laugh.It's a punt. It's a gamble. What it isn't is real.
Crypto's is basically like stock in an empty company that doesn't do anything except promote the sale of its own stock. Crypto's such as Bitcoin is a fool's investment of those who trade hoping to offload it on someone dumber than themself. The mysterious world of cryptocurrencies is exciting at the moment for some - but for those without experience, trading these coins will eventually end in tears. If you are aware of the heightened risk of trading crypto & still decide to trade, well that's called an informed decision & not one I would agree with.
I've tried a lot of different MAs over the years but admittedly in the context of an index filter. Overall I keep coming back to the old fashioned simple MA as it seems to be the most robust across a range of different markets.
Don't mean to bring this thread back to crypto, but this headline's reference certainly gave me a good laugh.
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The lag has to be considered in the context of your overall hold times. Index filters are generally useless for short hold time of day a few days which is why I don’t bother with any index filter on my swing system. But on my weekly long only which can have an average hold time of many many months the lag generally has minimal adverse impactHow can we determine a trend?
It's been volatile trading these last few weeks & the effectiveness of a trend can be patchy. Using an "Index Buy Filter" has the ability to keep you out of the markets when unfavorable trading conditions exist. I should also remark that professional traders trade constantly. I also have a mix of Trading Systems that incorporate an "Index Buy Filter" where others don't.
An "Index Buy Filter"
Using a "Buy Filter" has limitations as the standard run-of-the-mill buy filters use a "moving average" to indicate when the index is off or on. Just by the very nature of using a moving average or its "variations" have a habit of getting you "out" a bit late & reentering the markets can also be "delayed". The lag associated with this type of indicator "is a killer in this game".
Skate.
I didn’t think too deeply about it—I just thought it funny as I’ve never heard anyone refer to an asset class as a venereal disease. It just appealed to my immature sense of humourMunger has made his feelings on crypto known in the past
“I hate the bitcoin success,” he said last year. “I think the whole damn development is disgusting & contrary to the interests of civilization.” Despite his apparent loathing, Munger said he was not completely opposed to the US Federal Reserve launching its own digital currency.
Charlie Munger on crypto: ’the whole development is disgusting
At the 2021 annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting live-streamed on Yahoo Finance, Warren Buffett & Charlie Munger address the crypto market. The 2 minute leaves no doubt on their feelings about cryptos.
Charlie Munger on crypto: ’the whole development is disgusting’
At the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders meeting live streamed on Yahoo Finance, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger address the crypto market now being valued at $2 trillion.hk.tv.yahoo.com
Warren Buffett: Bitcoin Is An Asset That Creates Nothing
Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett speaks to CNBC's Becky Quick about what he thinks about bitcoin & the cryptocurrency markets.
Skate.
Great post @Skate. Some good common sense advice in that video. It's not about timing the market...it's about time in the market.Fear is rampant
The Chief Investment Officer for Motley Fool Scott Phillips, explains that the ASX is tanking going on to say that you need to look at the bigger picture how to feel & what to do right now.
The short YouTube video is compelling
Skate.
okay, noted and agree - but how's your's different and what time frame/systems are you applying it to?An "Index Buy Filter"
Using a "Buy Filter" has limitations as the standard run-of-the-mill buy filters use a "moving average" to indicate when the index is off or on. Just by the very nature of using a moving average or its "variations" have a habit of getting you "out" a bit late & reentering the markets can also be "delayed". The lag associated with this type of indicator "is a killer in this game".
Skate.
i'm interested in hearing what you recommend to reduce this lag?
okay, noted and agree - but how's your's different and what time frame/systems are you applying it to?
a simple ma filter over the longer term on weekly or monthly systems is still significantly better than buy and hold
yes there will always be lag to exit and re-enter, 2008GFC took 15-18months and simple filter kept you out of the big drop but 20covid took 6weeks and you'd have probably not seen much difference.
Do you use any intraday strategies?Trading is a tough gig
These last few months would test any new trader as it's not been the most optimal time to trade. Even seasoned traders are not happy but it's nothing that we haven't seen before. Rest assured the good times will return, hanging in there will test your mettle. Your ability to cope well when difficult trading conditions persist may be the ultimate decider if you will be a profitable trader or not.
Skate.
Do you use any intraday strategies?
Are your systems long only?
now i guess most of your systems are systems i.e. systematic
have you seen Radge (US) MR performance today (last night) ??
Yes agree Commsec would be a bad choice for MR systematic approachNo, I don't.
Yes, they are.
Yes.
No, I haven't - do you have a link?
Also, I only trade the ASX
The commission would kill me trading a "Mean Reversion Strategy" on the ASX using CommSec. It's also a pity you redacted parts of the Share Trade Trader portfolio report. I would be interested to do the calculations.
Skate.
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