Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Dump it Here

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Newt said:
Big downers on a Fri never much fun waiting to see what the US market serves up for our Monday.....
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I just wish the US Fed would get on with it and rip that bloody Band-Aid off—just hurry up and put up interest rates so we can all get on with life. All this “will they won’t they” is just creating uncertainty.
 
Tomorrow will be a good day
My motto is, any day you don't lose is a "good day". I'm expecting a "good day" tomorrow as I only trade the ASX.

Thinking is underrated
Trading psychology is something most people don’t think about but at times like these, it's unavoidable. The possibility of losing money can easily corrupt your thinking & force you to make the wrong decisions at exactly the wrong time. Your biases can lead you down the wrong path if they are not aligned with reality.

Skate.
 
othmana86 said:
A bit quiet in here. Hopefully everyone’s systems has reverted them to cash during this decline.
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Nope. Swing system getting busy and 75% invested with a bunch of buys for Thursday, daily EOD closing out a bunch of positions on Thu and will remain about 20% invested and my weekly still 50% invest but that may well change come Friday.
 
Skate said:
Tomorrow will be a good day
My motto is, any day you don't lose is a "good day". I'm expecting a "good day" tomorrow as I only trade the ASX.
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Tomorrow will certainly be a welcome breather, but still 2 days of upcoming action in the US to deal with on Thursday o_O
 
The Edge
@MovingAverage & many more has the most basic thing you need to be a successful trader is an edge, an advantage in your trading that produces a positive net profit over the long-term. This edge is the culmination of all your research, planning, execution, & state of mind while managing your portfolio. When you want to make money over the long run, a good way to analyse a strategy is to look at the history of its returns. The time period that you do this is a contentious issue in this thread. Survivorship is the name of this game.

Skate.
 
Trading is a roller coaster of emotions
In my opinion, to be successful as a trader you need to be able to disassociate yourself from the money side of trading, & accepted that losing your money is a normal part of trading. Without the correct mindset, your decision-making process will be affected.

We all feel stress when we lose
It’s vital to learn how to accept losing money. The last two weeks have not been kind to trend traders & how you'll react in the short term when placed under stressful conditions is something we all need to learn. Controlling your emotions, training your mind to stay calm under pressure, controlling how & what you think is extremely important when the losses keep piling higher. I'm just saying, how you handle stress will decide whether you’ll be a success or a failure at trading.

Skate.
 
othmana86 said:
A bit quiet in here. Hopefully everyone’s systems has reverted them to cash during this decline.
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@othmana86 I hope the last few posts liven the thread as the last two days haven't been pretty for me personally. As @MovingAverage said: "Tomorrow will certainly be a welcome breather" it might just be the circuit breaker I need. I think it was @peter2 who said once: "you can tell when things aren't going well when everyone goes quiet"

Skate.
 
Skate said:
The Edge
@MovingAverage & many more has the most basic thing you need to be a successful trader is an edge, an advantage in your trading that produces a positive net profit over the long-term. This edge is the culmination of all your research, planning, execution, & state of mind while managing your portfolio. When you want to make money over the long run, a good way to analyse a strategy is to look at the history of its returns. The time period that you do this is a contentious issue in this thread. Survivorship is the name of this game.

Skate.
Click to expand...
What you're looking at below is the unit value of my weekly system. You can clearly see this week's drawdown, but as can be easily seen the system has had worse post covid drawdowns (look at late Jan / early Feb 2021) but while the portfolio's value has experienced considerable volatility since Nov of 2020 it has continued to move upwards.

unit value.PNG
 
MovingAverage said:
What you're looking at below is the unit value of my weekly system. You can clearly see this week's drawdown, but as can be easily seen the system has had worse post covid drawdowns (look at late Jan / early Feb 2021) but while the portfolio's value has experienced considerable volatility since Nov of 2020 it has continued to move upwards.

View attachment 136522
Click to expand...

Conviction
This is what I'm talking about "having the correct mindset" to trade with conviction. Well done.

Equity.jpg

Skate.
 
MovingAverage said:
What you're looking at below is the unit value of my weekly system. You can clearly see this week's drawdown, but as can be easily seen the system has had worse post covid drawdowns (look at late Jan / early Feb 2021) but while the portfolio's value has experienced considerable volatility since Nov of 2020 it has continued to move upwards.

View attachment 136522
Click to expand...
And this FY was great for MA; but in a week like this week, unless trading shorts, you can at best limit losses/be 100% in cash.
Part of life;
Obviously, any weekly system will leave you with frustration as you see the slaughter unwinds...but you chose weekly for a reason; my daily systems are all good and all cash..but they can not even hope to recover ...whereas who knows? the weeklysystems could jump on Thursday or Friday and recover some or all these losses;
note : if you have intraweek SL etc, that is a different beast......
 
MovingAverage said:
What you're looking at below is the unit value of my weekly system. You can clearly see this week's drawdown, but as can be easily seen the system has had worse post covid drawdowns (look at late Jan / early Feb 2021) but while the portfolio's value has experienced considerable volatility since Nov of 2020 it has continued to move upwards.

View attachment 136522
Click to expand...
I should add that this week's sell off has seen my system go into a drawdown of about 10%--well with the system's simulated max drawdown of around 20%.
 
Skate said:
Conviction
This is what I'm talking about "having the correct mindset" to trade with conviction. Well done.

View attachment 136527

Skate.
Click to expand...

"Conviction" is absolutely what it is all about. I hear you on the missed opportunity but my system was 100% cash at that stage because the index filter had the system turned off.
 
MovingAverage said:
"Conviction" is absolutely what it is all about. I hear you on the missed opportunity but my system was 100% cash at that stage because the index system had the system turned off.
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@MovingAverage, yes, I knew that your index filter (buy filter) was off. At the time & (not in hindsight), it was better to be "safe, than sorry". If the market kept the trajectory it was on you would have looked like a genius. No one expected the strong rebound. The quickness of the rebound caught most & it was unprecedented at the time. I should also say it caught commentators as well "forecasting" something different than what happened.

Skate.
 

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