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Dump it Here

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qldfrog said:
Another reason these can not go up smoothly.if rba or fed push up rate, market crash, panic sets in with all the BTD retail crowd..AND governments become insolvent due to monstrous debt size...smooth then horror crash...
Click to expand...

Do you remember the "recession we had to have"...don't believe for a minute that they aren't prepared to allow the economy take a hit. Sometime things need a reset.
 
yes i agree , but please remember unofficial inflation ( erosion of buying power ) also is part of the mix , and that is a very clever escape artist

ideally valuations should come back to reality with increased productivity ( but don't hold your breath waiting for that )

a current trap is increases in earnings ( percentage-wise ) from a very low base after a troubled 2020
 
MovingAverage said:
Do you remember the "recession we had to have"...don't believe for a minute that they aren't prepared to allow the economy take a hit. Sometime things need a reset.
Click to expand...
they are quite ready for US ( you and me ) to take a hit , not so happy for the party donors and the companies they invest in privately to get smashed

in simple terms it will be the taxpayer ( maybe four or five future generations of them ) that will pick up the bill
 

"THE FINANCIAL SYSTEM IS AN ENORMOUS BLACK HOLE", SAYS LONDON PAUL OF THE SIRIUS REPORT.​




now if the things discussed in this video confuse you , don't feel bad , the current complexity is designed to confuse almost everybody

go find the movie ' The Big Short ' and use that as your beginners lesson ( especially the derivatives and credit swaps part , but DON'T ignore the packaged bonds and mortgages part either )

DYOR
 
Just a note: i am guilty as hell here.and feeling so.
Dump it here might not be the best place for the last few posts.
Mea culpa, i started it?..this should probably go in the Great Reset thread, or a more general economy thread.
Have all a great weekend.
As i look at NYSE so far, it is not a good look for the coming weeks and our systems risk profile
I noted gold and pm up, BTC down..so not a digital gold?
And AUD..outch
 
Ok, so the RBA has had its fun with low interest rates…now get on and crank up the offical cash rate. That will fix things up.
 
qldfrog said:
Amd market will crash..maybe..honestly i would be very happy to have TD available at +3pc over inflation..but i can dream
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HOPEFULLY , the market would retrace ( or more likely correct ) to test buyer support , because many buyers are chasing yield ( especially me ) so there is some pressure on some investors ( and fund managers ) to have that money working .

the important question on the Australian market ( we have solid hints the US and UK markets are using heavy levels of leverage ) is how much leverage is being used by traders/investors , even if ASX listed stocks are over-valued the amount of FORCED selling in the dips is very important .

the ASX is not over-valued everywhere ( thank goodness ) but as usual the popular stocks are ,

now obviously there is always the chance of a major over-reaction in a downturn , because there are still supply-line issues and virus concerns , and massive quantitative easing to push liquidity ( or the impression of it ) into the economy , so some investors won't be full of confidence in the near-term future ( despite the rhetoric )

now i haven't been investing in the money market for much longer than the stock market ( i started to take notice of it from 2008 ) but in my short experience in TDs the rates CHASE the real inflation increases but look good because of the manipulation in 'official inflation rates '

( thank you Kevin Rudd for alerting me to the complexities of the money markets , when he came out with the 'deposit guarantees ' , the research needed drew me much deeper than i expected )

now i suppose the unasked question in the Australian business scene , is what do the business results ( and job figures ) look like without the extraordinary measures , like jobkeeper and rent moratoriums
 
divs4ever said:
some investors won't be full of confidence in the near-term future ( despite the rhetoric )
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A short extract from Berkshire Hathaway 2021 Annual Shareholders Meeting
Warren Buffett warns new entrants to the stock market that stocks don’t always go up & it’s not as easy as it sounds to identify the winners out of thousands of other companies at their early stages. Warren Buffett is considered one of the most successful investors in the world and has a net worth of over 100 billion dollars.

The short 12-minute YouTube video is well worth a watch


Skate.
 
yes i should probably consider whether to recover the investment cash from TUA , it has been a nice run since the spin-off

( i bought some extra TUA to go with the holding issued via the demerger )

thanks for the heads up ( am mostly preoccupied trying to find sensible places to park money )
 
not only Buffet giving notes of caution ( but of course you should always be cautious , in a bull market or not , so as not be caught up negatively in over-reactions )

i haven't been watching Buffet closely this year is he still sitting on a big pile of cash reserves "
( which makes sense for Buffet/Berkshire because they have the opportunity to be an alternate financier , when they spot an opportunity )
 
Skate said:
Trading isn’t about getting rich, it's more about financial independence supporting yourself without an income, being able to choose to live your life on your terms.
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Warren Buffett is a smart & kind-hearted person who has "lived his life on his terms"
Buffett was born in Omaha, Nebraska. In his youth, he developed an interest in investing & made incredible stock market returns over his career. As a boy, he knew the power of saving & making money. It's no wonder he conquered the financial world. With the passing years he came around to see his ability to help others.

divs4ever said:
I haven't been watching Buffet closely this year is he still sitting on a big pile of cash reserves
Click to expand...

@divs4ever, if you haven't seen this documentary it's well worth a look. It's an uplifting story of what drove him to be the successful person he is today.

Becoming Warren Buffett 2016 HBO Documentary
Being the weekend, it's the perfect time to unwind & watch an interesting documentary about Warren Buffett from his youth to today.



Skate.
 
i think Buffet is trying to talk us out of 'set and forget ' for individual stocks ( i am more in the 'buy and watch school ' but then i am still trying to learn more about the market and investing )

another way to see Buffet's idea from a different perspective is to see how many 100 year old companies are listed on the ASX , now granted some have changed the business model or the industry they participate in , and some have had a detour via bankruptcy/restructure .

i am not against index funds , but i do use them sparingly as an insurance against poor stock selection , currently i am more biased towards a variety of LICs tapping the manager's wisdom and research abilities , BUT if there was a proper market melt-down i would probably up my index fund holdings during the investor confusion , and let them ride any recovery wave
 

@qldfrog, the "Platinum Strategy" is just that, a "strategy" that produces buy & sell signals. The beauty of trading using the "Exploration Analysis" for signals is that if the signal falls foul of your trading plan you can elect to take or pass on the signals. Positions being held without an exit signal allow you to sell them when your trading plan overrides.

"A Trading Plan"
A trading plan "decides" if you will enter or exit a position, not the strategy. A "Trading Plan" trumps a "Trading Strategy". Buy & sell signals are generated using a mathematical formula & nothing more. The rapid decline of the last few weeks has caught everyone by surprise. Weekly systematic traders would have felt the burn that was unavoidable. It's a perfect reminder of why a trading plan trumps a trading strategy. Trading revolves around decisions.

Skate.
 


I've had another suggestion from a group member
"What about we liquidate all positions as the Index Filter is off & start fresh when the tide changes"

I've explained
Trading using the "Exploration Analysis" signals allows you to trade any number of possibilities. This method of trading the "raw" signals allows you to exit & join at any time. The signals are "PositionScored" in as much as the signals are scored by price in "ascending order". There are some companies I refuse to buy & if they are a "listed signal" I pass them over & just take the next signals. When it comes to exit signals they are non-negotiable. If you get an exit signal, exit without hesitation.

I'll wait a little longer
There is another who wants to join the group & trade the signals. Being indecisive he wants to wait & see "how" the strategy performs in the short term before investing (which is fair enough). The "Platinum Strategy" allows you to be a "cafeteria trader". What this means is that you can "pick & choose" which signals to take as each signal has the same chance of success.

The Platinum Strategy
This strategy would be one of my most cautious strategies to trade without stifling performance. The only criticism I have "trading this strategy" is that it's out of a position quick smart if "momentum" doesn't carry through in the "short term". By the way, this is by design.



Skate.
 
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