Dump it Here

[qldfrog]

@qldfrog I've used both (TSI) indicators with success combing an "AND" & "OR" statement annexed to the buy condition. Using both indicators reduce false breakouts of forming trends.

A simple line of code
Using the zero-line of the "True Strength Index" (TSI) oscillator has strong trading applications, so has the "Tend Strength Index" (TSI) under certain conditions - using both indicators with filters & tuned parameters certainly adds value.

Sample Code for @qldfrog
BuyTSIsetup = TSI AND sig > 0 OR TSIndicator > 1.65;

In English
When the double smoothed (TSI) & the signal line are both higher than zero - forms the first part of the buy condition. The "OR" statement becomes an additional buy condition. So, if the "Tend Strength Index" (TSI) is greater than 1.65 (the standard measure of trend strength) is the other buy signal (but limited). Add parameters & other filters to the system & it becomes a worthy trend strategy.

Skate.

if it helps:
working with TSI, I get indeed VERY good win rates:in the 60% '
well well above my usual figures..yet I do not manage to better my existing system overall return, DD CAR etc
This is a new situation for me, so maybe I need to check my exit in a different light
very interesting

 

[MovingAverage]

Nah different thing.

At the moment the market is getting smashed by inflation expectations. But there are some things which run up (and run HARD) when inflation goes up - banks for example.

View attachment 121690

The inverse correlation between the two (the fact that they move in opposite directions to each other) provides a golden opportunity if a flip in the opposite directions is only temporary like this ultra-high-tech graph I've drawn has.

You would obviously only do this if you think that the two curves are going to revert to their previous trend/what we see at the moment is only temporary though (which I do).

That’s all good stuff, but to be honest I’m a humble retail system trader and I can’t code that stuff into my system so don’t bother ?. Appreciate that it’s serious stuff but it’s just not on my radar

 

[over9k]

Ah yes, it's all macroeconomic stuff so a totally different thing.

 

[Skate]

Jack Bogle
"If you've bought right, all you have to do is hold tight"

Timing the markets (System Trading)
It's often said that timing the market rarely works but as a systematic trend trader, that's all I do. The accuracy of system trading is disappointing but profitable. I've made a series of posts about how I "jump on & off trends". Timing when you hop on is "significant" but timing when to hop off is "critical" - to the performance of any strategy.

Time in the markets (Value Investing)
This type of investing can be referred to as a "buy & hold" passive investment style. Buy & Hold strategies, relies on the theory that "overtime" markets go up, driven by solidly profitable companies. I'm not saying you can "buy & take your eye off the ball" but rather check periodically that the original investment decision is still applicable.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

There is an alternative way to make money (in the markets)
Fear is the emotion traders constantly battle evident with the COVID flash crash a year ago. At the time of the crash, no one was sure how deep or how long the crash would persist. Fearfulness is the emotion "why traders" sold in March 2020. To be perfectly honest "I'm included in this group" as I was fearful of losing "open profits".

The decimation of trading accounts
There are others who at the time did so to stop their trading account from being decimated. At times "panic selling" is a wonder drug in relation to trading but as an investor, it never quite works out that well.

Re-entering the markets
I re-entered the markets quickly not because the market was going back up but rather panic selling was abating. Some were fearful of a second dip as they believed more pain was yet to come. Fear was also the emotion, why some traders didn't jump back in at first "lacking confidence" to do so. Others who jumped back in - did so but not to their pre-Covid levels.

When traders sell, it gives others an "opportunity" to buy
Capitalising on falling markets is the same as having a punt that the theory of "mean reversion" really works (most of the time). The "timing" of an investment doesn't carry the same weight as the "timing" of a trade.

Investing when there is a pricing mismatch
Historical evidence & previous trading experience of respected traders guide us - how "extraordinary" returns can be achieved when investing when there is a pricing mismatch.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Learning to understand
I don't often post links to videos but I'm suggesting you watch the YouTube video below - it might be the best 82 minutes that you can invest in your trading education.

Generalisation of the content
The content is important but not in-as-much as the underlying methodology & thinking behind the specific content. If you are truly committed to making money in the markets - this video is in the must-watch category.

Video Length (1:12:23)
I'm sure most will pass on the opportunity to view the video because of its length. Most would rather read one-liners because it's easy & requires little effort. Reading a book or watching a video requires a tremendous amount of concentration. People by "human nature" are just like water & as water tracks the easiest path so do people. Self-education is lacking with most today, they want everything handed to them because they haven't the time to learn.

The 12-step recovery process of trading



Skate.

 

[MovingAverage]

Learning to understand
I don't often post links to videos but I'm suggesting you watch the YouTube video below - it might be the best 82 minutes that you can invest in your trading education.

Generalisation of the content
The content is important but not in-as-much as the underlying methodology & thinking behind the specific content. If you are truly committed to making money in the markets - this video is in the must-watch category.

Video Length (1:12:23)
I'm sure most will pass on the opportunity to view the video because of its length. Most would rather read one-liners because it's easy & requires little effort. Reading a book or watching a video requires a tremendous amount of concentration. People by "human nature" are just like water & as water tracks the easiest path so do people. Self-education is lacking with most today, they want everything handed to them because they haven't the time to learn.

The 12-step recovery process of trading



Skate.

Appreciate the link and I'm about 40 mins in, but I am getting the feeling this is an advert for index funds highlighted by all the negatives associated with active investments/funds. There is some good stuff in there, but just doesn't seem like a balanced perspective so far. Anyway, I'll stick with it to the end.

 

[Skate]

Appreciate the link and I'm about 40 mins in, but I am getting the feeling this is an advert for index funds highlighted by all the negatives associated with active investments/funds.

Generalisation of the content
The content is important but not in-as-much as the underlying methodology & thinking behind the specific content. If you are truly committed to making money in the markets - this video is in the must-watch category.

Advert for index funds
I made reference to this in my previous post. The underlying methodology & specific content is important - the self-promotional part of the presentation isn't.

There is some good stuff in there, but just doesn't seem like a balanced perspective so far. Anyway, I'll stick with it to the end.

Anyway, I'll stick with it to the end
Good work!

Skate.

 

[MovingAverage]

Advert for index funds
I made reference to this in my previous post. The underlying methodology & specific content is important - the self-promotional part of the presentation isn't.



Anyway, I'll stick with it to the end
Good work!

Skate.

Got to the end. I thought they did a good job on the high-level overview of the statistical properties. The point they made that I think people would do well to remember is that "risk is what generates your return". Thanks for posting.

 

[MovingAverage]

Got to the end. I thought they did a good job on the high-level overview of the statistical properties. The point they made that I think people would do well to remember is that "risk is what generates your return". Thanks for posting.

oh and I thought the actual ticker tape from the 29-32 crash was very cool.

 

[Skate]

Investing when there is a pricing mismatch
Historical evidence & previous trading experience of respected traders guide us - how "extraordinary" returns can be achieved when investing when there is a pricing mismatch.

Unloved (ASX:NCM)
I'm not posting to influence, but rather to put on record that my "Bee Strategy" is designed to find value, generating another signal last Friday. The latest (weekly) signal was for an entry into Newcrest Mining (NCM) last Monday. Even though the daily signal was for the 13th of March 2021.

6 Signals so far (ANZ, BHP, CBA, MFG, MQG, NCM)
I've posted that the "Bee Strategy" has produced 5 signals to date "since the Covid flash crash" back in March 2020. All positions so far have been taken. The "Bee Strategy" rarely produces signals but when it does, they are normally "on the money".

The 6th weekly signal (NCM)
The weekly "Bee Strategy" generated a signal for (NCM) on Friday the 19th March 2021 for a "buy at the open" on Monday 22nd March 2021. The "Bee Daily Strategy" generated the same entry signal on the 13th of March 2021. I prefer to trade "Weekly" as in IMHO - weekly signals confirm the trend a little better (cutting out the majority of false starts)

Alternative to trading
Investing rather than trading can be at times less stressful, an alternative way to grow your capital base. With trading, you buy a position hoping sometime in the future you can offload it to someone else at a higher price. Investing applies the same principle but the "hold time" increases.

Set & Forget Investing
The "Bee Investment Strategy", invests for dividends & capital gains. Investing at times can simply be a "set-&-forget" way of parking trading funds for the long haul. If positions are added at the "right time", investing this way can be stress-free. (you still need to have a system in place (to generate the signals) rather than entering on a gut feeling).

Time dependant
Over time there is a double whammy, dividends, & capital gains. The "dividends can be reinvested" through their dividend reinvestment plan (DRP) - most large caps provide this feature or you can have the dividends paid into your bank account for living expenses, it’s up to you to decide how the dividends are dispersed.

Investing can be scary
No investment strategy is safe, but value investing can at times be less risky. I'm just saying "when you can't take a trick" or when "system trading" is a hard slog there are other ways to park substantial funds waiting for the tide to change.

Daily Chart - (NCM)


Skate.

 

[Skate]

I suspect that it is the wrong market environment for a BO system. A BO system is a real bull market system. The current market has moved from Bull to neutral, or even possibly a very early Bear. We won't really know until a little further down the track, but either way, now is time to play defence.

jog on
duc

There are alternatives
When systems are not behaving as expected (due to market conditions) - value investing can be the alternative. (rotation of strategies)

Skate.

 

[ducati916]

There are alternatives
When systems are not behaving as expected (due to market conditions) - value investing can be the alternative. (rotation of strategies)

Skate.

Two responses to this:

(i) absolutely have at least 2 systems, one for bull and one for bear as a minimum; and
(ii) is 'value' a bear market system?;
(iii) if so, is it combined with some version of $cost averaging or are you still operating some form of hard exit?

I have seen the posts on the value system. Is this a 'technical' scan of 'value' or are there fundamental screens added to the technicals? I have never seen a purely technical scan for value. It is always combined with fundamental screens. Even then, you should actually check that the numbers provided in the financials are legitimate. There was the instance of a honey maker cooking the books, outright fraud, that was punted as a 'value' stock.

jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

Two responses to this:

(i) absolutely have at least 2 systems, one for bull and one for bear as a minimum; and
(ii) is 'value' a bear market system?;
(iii) if so, is it combined with some version of $cost averaging or are you still operating some form of hard exit?

I have seen the posts on the value system. Is this a 'technical' scan of 'value' or are there fundamental screens added to the technicals? I have never seen a purely technical scan for value. It is always combined with fundamental screens. Even then, you should actually check that the numbers provided in the financials are legitimate. There was the instance of a honey maker cooking the books, outright fraud, that was punted as a 'value' stock.

jog on
duc

(i) Multiple Systems
You are absolutely correct. It's wise to have systems that work in all markets (horses for courses)

(ii) Value investing
IMHO value investing works in all markets as the strategy looks for mispricing (only)

(iii) Dollar Cost Averaging
Value investing is very reliant on indicators. The drawback of "trading by indicators" is each time the condition is met a "signal is generated". The good thing about "trading by indicators" - it allows dollar-cost averaging.

Is this a 'technical' scan of 'value' or are there fundamental screens added to the technicals?
I'm a numbers guy. Fundamentals are unreliable (AFAIC), not only for the issue you raised (cooking the books) but for a few other reasons as well.

I have never seen a purely technical scan for value
Terminology can at times muddy the waters (or a post). When I talk about "value investing" I'm referring to investing in mispriced securities. I've never had much joy trading "mean reversion systems" for a couple of reasons (1) short holding periods (2) associated high "commission costs" but that's not to say that we can't build on the premise of the idea (not the idea).

Scanning for value
For the technical traders, I use 3 indicators that look for mispricing. Using the 3 indicators in conjunction with each other paints a picture. The picture is incomplete until a directional move is confirmed. (that's what I'm after). Index selection, strict parameter setting, stringent filters, & PositionScore defines the confirmation. Admittedly this type of strategy delivers infrequent signals. (downside)

I use 3 Indicators
There are just three indicators I use in the "Bee Strategy" (MACD, RSI & StochD). By folding indicators back on themself are self-confirming (double confirmation for a better word). Only the (StochD & MACD) are used in this manner. The RSI is the final arbitrator. Simple, effective & easily implemented.

I try hard to promote new ideas
My idea of buying mispriced securities is not for everyone - but trading the "Bee Strategy" (value investing) works for me.

Skate.

 

[frugal.rock]

There are alternatives
When systems are not behaving as expected (due to market conditions) - value investing can be the alternative. (rotation of strategies)

I personally love the good old discretionary "system" which just rolls along with the punches and is always adapting on the fly, as is required by the ever changing market dynamics...IMO

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/attachments/24032021-port-jpg.121780/

 

[Skate]

I personally love the good old discretionary "system" which just rolls along with the punches and is always adapting on the fly, as is required by the ever changing market dynamics...IMO

https://www.aussiestockforums.com/attachments/24032021-port-jpg.121780/

No discretionary for me
The 50/50 - 80 rule scares me to death.

50/50 - 80 rule
The 50/50-80 rule simply states - when there is a 50% chance of getting it right (given the choice of the call) you will be wrong 80% of the time. Meaning I wouldn't trust myself making a discretionary call (I don't process those skills - where others do).

Skate.

 

[ducati916]

I have never seen a purely technical scan for value
Terminology can at times muddy the waters (or a post). When I talk about "value investing" I'm referring to investing in mispriced securities. I've never had much joy trading "mean reversion systems" for a couple of reasons (1) short holding periods (2) associated high "commission costs" but that's not to say that we can't build on the premise of the idea (not the idea).

Scanning for value
For the technical traders, I use 3 indicators that look for mispricing. Using the 3 indicators in conjunction with each other paints a picture. The picture is incomplete until a directional move is confirmed. (that's what I'm after). Index selection, strict parameter setting, stringent filters, & PositionScore defines the confirmation. Admittedly this type of strategy delivers infrequent signals. (downside)

I use 3 Indicators
There are just three indicators I use in the "Bee Strategy" (MACD, RSI & StochD). By folding indicators back on themself are self-confirming (double confirmation for a better word). Only the (StochD & MACD) are used in this manner. The RSI is the final arbitrator. Simple, effective & easily implemented.



Skate.

Ok, now you have me really nervous. I simply don't have time to go deeply into the financials, so I just ran a quick scan.

So a couple of charts:

So the 1'st chart is just a bog standard price chart. Essentially, at the bottom last year it traded at $21 and change. It looks technically, a x2 bottom. I'm not sure where a 'mispricing' could enter into the scan, but...



Now the 'fundamentals':



I won't go into detail, but ugly.

How is this mispriced? Mispriced to its reserves as against POG/POC?


jog on
duc

 

[Skate]

Ok, now you have me really nervous. I won't go into detail, but ugly. How is this mispriced?

Backgrounding
When I'm posting ideas into the way I trade, I always discuss the thinking behind the methodology. More importantly, I always display the "signals in advance" when discussing trading positions taken.

Rearward looking
I'm not a fan of hindsight bias nor a fan of those who explain trading after-the-fact. Charts do tell a story but it rarely reveals the direction of the next bar or bars. It's well worth remembering, we all trade on the right-hand side of a price chart.

Signals
Weather signals are just signals - interpreting the signals gives a fair indication of the weather to come. Trading signals do much the same but the markets are more unpredictable due to the nature of emotions.

6 Signals
I have posted the timing of the 6 positions taken so far, being (ANZ, BHP, CBA, MFG, MQG, NCM). The "Bee Strategy" allows large values to be invested, it's just the nature of the beast.

Summary
It's safe to say @ducati916 has a different view "at-the-moment" of (NCM) than I do, plain & simple.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

A bit of schadenfreude from this chart

How apt is that
Schadenfreude is a German word & we don't have an English equivalent. The word is best described as an emotion. Rather than feeling sympathy, "pleasure is derived from another person's misfortune"

The screen capture below has been taken from @ducati916 thread (without permission)
It's a fair summation (AFAIC) of the emotions experienced by many. Being a "trader & investor", has struck a chord. For me, the timing is a little off but that's the (S&P 500) chart.


I'm assuming we all felt the burn of the "Covid Flash Crash"
Sometimes traders & investors like to pigeon-hole themselves into one particular style. By being open to combining styles may provide the best opportunity to make the most profit. Fear & greed directly drives the markets & it’s our perception that creates the value at any given moment. While one person sees a buying opportunity of a lifetime, another sees the complete meltdown of the markets. Deciding when to be in the market & when to stay out is a personal decision (that's usually driven by emotions). Emotions can be good & bad, recognising the difference is the secret to trading.

In the next post
I'll post a similar chart, a chart of events - the timeline as it related to "my trading" during & after the (Covid Flash Crash).

Skate.

 

[Skate]

This is how the "Covid Flash Crash unfolded for me
1. @bigdog raised the first warning with me on 25th February 2020.
2. As a systems trader (no matter what) I don't action any position until the strategy indicates to do so.
3. The "Get The Fu¢k Out" (GTFO) filter activated on Friday the 28th of February 2020
4. All my positions were liquidated at the open on the 3rd March 2020.
5. The "Bee Strategy" (a value investing strategy) generated buy signals on (19/20/23rd of March 2020) & all positions were taken.
5. I recommended "trading" on Monday the 11th May 2020 & have never stopped to this date.
6. The "Bee Strategy" analysis generated (coughed up) the final two buy positions (to complete the strategy) this month (March 2021)
7. Recent "trading" has been a slow grind, but with a combination of strategies, it's all sweet.



Confirmation Posts
Value investing to me is investing in "mispriced" securities

@investtrader this "perceived value" style of trading is not dependant on a "sustained rally" but buying in the "hope" that sometime in the future the price will go back to the mean - using our trading experience (the Bee Strategy). I imagine there will not be a trigger for upside volatility in the short term & having money sitting in cash is unproductive. Making large investments in quality shares at a lower price has three benefits (1) Price appreciation over time (2) Dividends being paid along the way & (3) Idol money being put to work.

Two recent purchases
I have recently purchased $200k of each (1) BHP & (2) ANZ for the three reasons I mentioned above.

The reason for the mass exit (GTFO Filter)
The GTFO filter performed as intended & saved my bacon. The hemorrhaging of "open profits" was cauterized by the GTFO filter to stop the bleeding.

I'm posting about one of my filters (the "GTFO" Filter)
I've exited all my positions (28th February signals) & now I'm in (100% cash) sitting on my hands these last few weeks. The last few weeks have highlighted the importance of an "exit strategy" & why the timing of an exit is so critical. I thought it would be appropriate to make a post about the added protection I have built into all my strategies, the "GTFO" filter.

Summary timeline of the ("Bee Strategy")
1. On the 19th & 20th, March 2020 (BHP & ANZ) were taken
2. On the 23rd March 2020 (MQG & CBA) were added to the strategy.
3. This month March 2021 (MFG & NCM) completes the 6-position portfolio.

Trading evaluation
By providing my actual trading timeline & chart (with notations) - hopefully, go some way of benchmarking for others. By referring back to a snapshot of trading shines a light on "what we did", challenging ourselves, looking for improvements in preparation for the next major impact.

Skate.