Dump it Here

[Skate]

As a chartist, yes, PRU is looking like it is ready to breakout and is screaming a buy. In the context of Action Strategy, in my opinion, the volatility seems to have died down and I see this as the reason for the sell signal. This is only my opinion and I am still on my training wheels.

PRU - from a different perspective



Skate.

 

[Skate]

PRU - from a different perspective



Skate.

 

[CNHTractor]

Half the fun of trading is figuring out what others are doing & why

Hi Skate, probably a bit late in the night for me, and maybe a glass of red too late as well.

However, given @ducati916, comment re Volatilty not being in play then I have tried to look at chart using Index Filter, Stale Stop and Trail stop as follows:

I have looked at it form a stale stock perspective using

StaleStop = ROC(C,13)<0;

as a reference point.

Likewise, I have looked at a trail stop of 20% or 10% if index filter is negative. The index filter I have used is

 C < MA(C,50);

Obviously, the parameters [i.e. period] used for Stale Stop, Index Filter and Trail Stop are key.

Using the above I have the following weekly chart:



I will revert to looking at the charts tomorrow to see whether I can pick a pattern.

 

[ducati916]

@Lewie made a few points in his recent post giving me an opportunity "not to respond" but to make a few general comments as a system trader.


"I'm trying to invest on the basis of fundamentals"
1. What criteria should you use to pick a stock? Well, you can either use fundamental analysis (the study of balance sheets, PE ratio, P&L statements, also researching any known facts about the company & its managers, even the company’s historical performances) or you can use technical analysis (the study of charts)

2. I prefer technical analysis as I believe all that is known about a company, has already been factored into the share price already.
Skate.

1. Expanding on Technicals v Fundamentals. To start, assume that it will take an equal amount of work/study to become competent in either discipline. Further that should you study both, they will be complementary in some aspects and contradictory in others.

Once you have overcome that initial hurdle, TA becomes far more time efficient. You could analyse 1000+ stocks on a technical basis in the time it takes to analyse a single stock via FA. As Mr Skate has already alluded, even completing a thorough analysis via FA, your analysis can still be woefully inaccurate due to information that is hidden. I had an extended discussion with Mr VC here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/the-education-of-an-investor.34402/page-9 on CZZ, which in my analysis was a fraud, but, like Enron, rose magnificently higher in price until it was taken private. Which was pretty lucky, as the fraud was starting to slip out.

Far better, if you are set on adding FA to your repertoire, to study macro economics and file down to sectors. Aggregates of stocks in an industry are more accurate than individual stocks, rather like psychohistory in Asimov's Foundation trilogy. Even better, focus on the market as a whole.

2. Ultimately, FA is only really a required skill if you plan on LBO transactions, as actual cash-flow is vitally important in this area. Just buying and selling stocks can be accomplished with just TA. You want long term? Just run your buy/sell program indefinitely. You are holding a basket of stocks: simply the stocks in the basket change periodically.

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

extended discussion with Mr VC here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/the-education-of-an-investor.34402/page-9 on CZZ, which in my analysis was a fraud, but, like Enron, rose magnificently higher in price until it was taken private. Which was pretty lucky, as the fraud was starting to slip out.

Interesting, i had the same opinion of CZZ and a not so healthy debate with monsieur VC years ago : I view them as fraud in the penal way: these guys should have landed in jail
Fake products, breaking commercial and quarantine laws,and morally destroying real beekeepers for their short gain.ugly.not surprised if this leaked to their annual reports.
A shame i missed your side, will read...

 

[frugal.rock]

plan on LBO transactions,

LBO ? LBW I understand... howzat!

Could it be Leveraged Buyout?

"What Is a Leveraged Buyout?
A leveraged buyout (LBO) is the acquisition of another company using a significant amount of borrowed money to meet the cost of acquisition. The assets of the company being acquired are often used as collateral for the loans, along with the assets of the acquiring company."
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/leveragedbuyout.asp

 

[Newt]

Half the fun of trading is figuring out what others are doing & why
When information is supplied it helps you become a detective that adds value to your learning experience. I could go into depth & explain why each position is being sold in the Action Strategy this week but that's not the point.

Clear as mud
Looking at the charts some positions will be obvious why they are being sold, where other positions will be a little more obscure. All chartists make up stories (in their head) about what they see in the charts & then go on to believe the story because of their ingrained bias. Biases are mental blind spots, it takes special effort to avoid falling into their traps. Often, we realize our errors after the fact & usually it's too late.

Let's not leave out the members who like to look at charts
The "Charts" always tell a story even if at first it appears that they don't. As traders, we are always playing catch-up with new information. As systematic trend traders, we are searching for the probability of what will happen next, sometime in the future. Punting on those probabilities can be hazardous to your wealth & emotions. The times when you get it right, can compensate you for the cost of constantly having a go.

Do the charts tell a story for you?
The red & green lines are the support & resistance lines for the 10 & 50 weekly periods.

Looking at the chart of [BUB]
It should be oblivious why it's being cut from the team.


Now let's look at these charts
What do you see?
What is the story?
Why are the positions being sold?

PRU - Perseus Mining

REX - Regional Express

Looking at the chart of [BFG] it looks so good !!
Why is it being cut from the team?

BFG - Bell Financial Group Limited Ordinary

Hopefully
Some members may like to "express their opinion" on the charts above or why the positions below in the list are being axed from the team.

It pays to remember
There is no "right or wrong" answers in the "Dump it here" thread but a variety of opinions, one very good opinion has already expressed by @martyjames

Skate.

Some more thoughts on the "exit puzzle" for these stocks....

Theory 1. All 4 reaching previous price action (e.g. nodes on Volume Profile - or price where large volume has previous transacted, before have to break out to new high)

Theory 2: ROC of ROC is slowing (deceleration of price)? Seem to recall you saying before Skate you look at ROC of price as well as acceleration for entry/exit filters.

 

[peter2]

Like many, I was surprised to see this weeks sell orders on a few positions in the Action Strategy. So what? It's @Skate system not mine. Skate will follow his system because he knows every detail and has done all the back testing.

None of us know all the system details. None of us have done all the back testing research that examined the past performance of the system.

This is a good example why it's almost impossible to trade someone else's system. As soon as we can't explain a few actions, in this case a few exits, doubt about the system sets in. Once we doubt a few exits we'll doubt a few entries and then we won't follow the system at all.

I'm not going to spend time trying to explain something when I don't have all the details. I will use this conversation to reaffirm my commitment to follow my systems.

 

[peter2]

Oh, and if you're interested BFG is a 1st green bar CAM buy with above average volume .



One system's SELL can be another's BUY.

 

[Rsthree]

Oh, and if you're interested BFG is a 1st green bar CAM buy with above average volume .

View attachment 105618

One system's SELL can be another's BUY.

This is a great example of why trading can be so challenging. You make your assumptions, you feel you have a solid grounding and then you're presented with a contrarian view, and then doubt and uncertainty start to creep in.

Btw, I love the presentation of your charts, particularly the added drama of the skull and cross bones.

 

[CNHTractor]

Some more thoughts on the "exit puzzle" for these stocks....

Theory 1. All 4 reaching previous price action (e.g. nodes on Volume Profile - or price where large volume has previous transacted, before have to break out to new high)

Theory 2: ROC of ROC is slowing (deceleration of price)? Seem to recall you saying before Skate you look at ROC of price as well as acceleration for entry/exit filters.

I have been looking at the “exit puzzle” and at this point I am not seeing a pattern

@Newt has made a few suggestions. I am not sure that I understand Theory 1 [Volume], nor do I see ROC slowing. Attached is my attempt to see patterns on the chart. I post CDV.au as an example. The bottom pane is based upon this code:

 _SECTION_BEGIN("SROC");
P = ParamField( "Price field" );
periods = Param("Periods", 15, 1, 200, 1 );
Plot( EMA(ROC( P, periods),20), _DEFAULT_NAME(), ParamColor( "Color", colorCycle ), ParamStyle("Style")  );
_SECTION_END();

There has been so much posted on the Action Strategy I am thinking I need to go back in time and re-read Skate’s posts

Before doing so @Skate are you able to tell us the Stop loss levels that you are using and also what stale stop parameters are used?

 

[Skate]

There has been so much posted on the Action Strategy I am thinking I need to go back in time and re-read Skate’s posts. Before doing so @Skate are you able to tell us the Stop loss levels that you are using and also what stale stop parameters are used?

@CNHTractor, I've been out & just noticed your post. I have been watching the interaction & discussions about the list of sell positions of the Action Strategy this week. They are all fair comments & some are very good. All the recent posts about the Action Strategy, by the way, show a level of interest. When I get some free time this afternoon I'll make a post that some may find interesting as it's something new & a bit out there. The problem will be to explain it "succinctly without being boring".

Backgrounding
I need to set the background. Some might have missed the turn in sentiment this week. Volume, Volatility & other metrics compared to the previous 16 weeks "things have changed". The last week & a half has been the turning point. What worked back weeks ago won't work going forward (the markets have changed).

Read a few of Duc's post & read the moderation of his words
@ducati916 knows the shift has been on for a few weeks now & his projections are solid (his posts align with a few of my technical indicators). The shift is not like a light switch (on or off) but more like a dimmer switch & it's turning clockwise, the room is getting brighter.

Different markets require a different strategy
Here is a thought, what if we can switch the strategy to take advantage of a changing market. That's a unique feature of the Action Strategy, it can gauge sentiment & "dance to the music being played".

More to come.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

@CNHTractor, I've been out & just noticed your post. I have been watching the interaction & discussions about the list of sell positions of the Action Strategy this week. They are all fair comments & some are very good. All the recent posts about the Action Strategy, by the way, show a level of interest. When I get some free time this afternoon I'll make a post that some may find interesting as it's something new & a bit out there. The problem will be to explain it "succinctly without being boring".

Backgrounding
I need to set the background. Some might have missed the turn in sentiment this week. Volume, Volatility & other metrics compared to the previous 16 weeks "things have changed". The last week & a half has been the turning point. What worked back weeks ago won't work going forward (the markets have changed).

Read a few of Duc's post & read the moderation of his words
@ducati916 knows the shift has been on for a few weeks now & his projections are solid (his posts align with a few of my technical indicators). The shift is not like a light switch (on or off) but more like a dimmer switch & it's turning clockwise, the room is getting brighter.

Different markets require a different strategy
Here is a thought, what if we can switch the strategy to take advantage of a changing market. That's a unique feature of the Action Strategy, it can gauge sentiment & "dance to the music being played".

More to come.

Skate.

very good and a bit scary as last week is the first week the sum of my systems posted a loss..not gone that way for a long while.even my pure volatility one while going as planned overall did not do much
hum food for thoughts

 

[Newt]

Mmmm- so a regime filter, presumably based off Duc's volaility teachings. If so, to alternative settings, or a change in underlying strategy?

Totally accept Peters comments earlier about sticking to your existing strategy, but never too proud to get my head around some new element of trading that might one day translate into an improvement.

Just modeling different strategies, timeframes, universes can often cast a new light on existing strategies, which parameters are robust and those that might be getting into curve fitted territory.

 

[Skate]

Let's talk about switching parameters, settings & functions
Trading strategies vary in performance from one strategy to another. Some strategies are better suited to certain market conditions than others, that's a given. Why can't we have the best of both worlds & combine a few different strategies into one. I've done it with my "Hybrid Strategy" which is a combination of similar trend following strategies, all racing to be the first to enter a trend. Taking this idea one step further, to the next level, what if the "Action Strategy" could be two strategies in one. Here's the rub, what if we can have one set of parameters for one type of market & a different set of parameters when the sentiment of the market switches.

A cryptic post
The "Action Strategy" was setting up to switch modes during the week & I made a cryptic post on Wednesday that some may have missed or paid little "lip service" to it. The post can be found here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1080051/ if you re-read the post "it will make more sense now"

I also made these comments last Wednesday as well
(a) "Even the best traders found it difficult to pick the change of market sentiment" &
(b) "When does a bear market start to become a bull market? (Do they sneak up?)

What I do know is that the markets shift unpredictably & the bounce can come in sneaky ways
As one trading day rolls into another, the days start to blend & most will miss the (market sentiment) change being so close to the action. This is where my "Sentiment Filter" shines as it picks the slight nuances & subtle differences between a few variables that drive the "Sentiment Filter".

Parameters are dependant on a sentiment filter
What if there was a way to make a strategy to be dual purpose much like an "American Gridiron" football team. Markets have 3 phases, they go up, they go down & they go sideways. Wouldn't it be an advantage to know which phase is which & when is the line in the sand crossed? Also, why do we have to have a static line, what if the movement of the line was conditional on an Amibroker [if, else Statement].

How does an (if, else Statement) work?

never too proud to get my head around some new element of trading that might one day translate into an improvement.

The [if] keyword executes [statement 1] if the expression is true (nonzero) - [if else] is present & the expression is false (zero), it executes [statement 2]. After executing [statement 1] or [statement 2], control passes to the next statement. Also have a read here: https://www.amibroker.com/guide/a_keywords.html for a clearer picture of [keywords]

In a nutshell
If the market sentiment is "true", use [Statement 1] if false use [statement 2]. The code executes either [statement 1 or statement 2] than it passes to the next statement controlling which parameters & settings come into play.

One final check
The positions purchased with [statement 1] "do they meet" the buy condition of [statement 2] - if "true" hold, if "false" sell.

The positions below didn't make the cut (The remaining position in the "Action Strategy" passed the new statement)


NFL consists of an offensive team & a defensive team (two teams in one)
Backgrounding: In American football, each team has 11 players on the field at one time. Under the rules, teams are allowed unlimited free substitutions, that is, teams may change any number of players after any play, at any point in the game. This has resulted in the development of task-specific "group" of players within any single team. The "offence group of players" (the team with possession of the ball, which is trying to score), has a different method of play to the "defence group of players" (the team trying to prevent the other team from scoring & at the same time is tasked to take the ball from them).

Let's switch strategies dependant on market sentiment
There is nothing stopping the "Action Strategy" switching to meet the sentiment of the markets, one set of parameters to handle one type of market where the other handles the complete opposite. For those looking for the perfect strategy, there isn’t one, so in the meantime, why re-invent the wheel, let's try to make a better one. Let's trade the markets as they present, I say just "go with the flow" or "dance to the music being played"

Summary
I trust this puts to bed the reason why the positions listed above failed to make the new team.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

One point which puzzles me a bit Mr @Skate, you mentioned Wednesday..and i remember reading your posts last week and thinking What? We are not at week's end.
Do you also track daily moves?
We were just discussing the pro and con of daily vs weekly.

 

[Skate]

One point which puzzles me a bit Mr @Skate, you mentioned Wednesday..and i remember reading your posts last week and thinking What? We are not at week's end. Do you also track daily moves?
We were just discussing the pro and con of daily vs weekly.

@qldfrog, I trade weekly & track all the daily moves. I update the progress of every strategy at the end of every day, meaning I’m across every Strategy. I’m a facts & figures man & I’m crunching numbers all day.

I’ve got to come clean
I don’t think like a trader, I don’t act like a trader but I’m constantly thinking of what returns are available versus the risk involved. Being a trend trader I’m after “meat of the move” over & over, that’s it in a nutshell.

From my “Bookmaking” days
I’m playing the odds of large numbers. Trading as with bookmaking it’s all about the mathematics, it’s never about the gamble.

Simplicity of trading
As traders we just want to know what to buy, when to buy & when to hop off the ride “which is so important for profitability”. Trading this way works for me.

Skate.

 

[over9k]

Skate - you're clearly a pure maths/numbers guy. I like talking to quants as I'm the complete opposite and both of us always know or can figure out something that the other can't.

Thought about adding some intuitive/instinctive/gut analysis to your method?

 

[qldfrog]

I update the progress of every strategy at the end of every day, meaning I’m across every Strategy. I’m a facts & figures man & I’m crunching numbers all day

That's 2 of us..I do the same but did not expect you to: i imagined you as detached by wisdom and experience of the day to day fluctuation, floating above peons like me
You are human after all:
More seriously, thanks for your answer

 

[Skate]

Skate.