Dump it Here

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Hi
Thought I'd see if there is any interest among retirees exchanging thoughts on stocks to hold for dividends and (usually) franking credits for income purposes.I'm 74 and my wife and I have a SMSF. 30% of this is in cash and earning very little of course. The other 70% is in the ASX and generally very conservative. Any other retirees out there who would care to share what they're up to?

@Muschu - What a great thread & topic most retirees are interested in.

Disclaimer
I'm 66 & retired, I'm also a very active systematic trend trader, trading multiple strategies.

Experience
Every member enjoys a different level of experience & expertise with varying levels of skill & risk tolerance, meaning there is no one answer. Taking that into consideration there is nothing I can add to your thread that would be personally helpful to you. Everyone will find their own style of trading, or investing no matter what others have to say.

Trading & Investing
Your thread topic & question has given me an idea for a 'Dump it here' post. I'm going to make some general posts on the topic.

30% in cash
Whether it's under the mattress, buried in the backyard or sitting idol in the bank it's an opportunity lost.

Think about how long are you going to live?
How would you invest if you knew you could live another 20 or 30 years after retiring?

Invest conservatively
Once you retire at 65 all the current advice is to invest conservatively but if you’re planning on living for another 20 or 30 years investing conservatively may not be the best advice. If you are in the retirement phase of your SMSF there are compulsory withdrawals every year with the additional burden of inflation biting into your funds balance so a little more aggressive investment plan may be the way to go.

In Conclusion
Trading is an emotional roller coaster and how you manage your psychology really matters even more than your investment vehicle selection. Everyone tends to find their own level of expertise & will be driven to make their decisions based on this.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Retirees & being afraid
People, not only retirees are afraid of things they don’t understand. It’s a shame, because trading is a lot less complex than most people think. Investing and trading in the stock market has some risk, as do all asset classes that offer good long term returns, however, risks can be minimised and returns can be magnified with the right strategy. Anyone can buy and sell shares, it’s how we choose these and then how we manage our position that dictates how successful we will be.

Fear of failure
Everybody has a fear of failure at some level - at times we’ve all been fearful that perhaps we are not enough. Even when we know what to do, our fear can keep us from executing our plans. As a result, rather than face our natural fears, what do we do?

When in doubt
When people are in doubt, they tend to look to others to confirm their behaviour. Some people would rather adopt others’ opinions rather than form their own.

The law of least effort
You will think as little as possible.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

We are a lazy bunch
Human rarely think for themselves, they find it too uncomfortable & believe others known more than they do. One our design flaws for the most part of our species simply repeat what they are told, believe what they are told and become upset if they are exposed to any different view & reject information right in front of their eyes because it is contrary to what they want to believe.

Personal Responsibility
There are so many that refuse to take responsibility when trading go wrong, the problem is always caused by someone or something else. We all know that draw downs and losses are part of the trading process, so take it on the chin and be the ‘best loser’ you can possible be.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Investment strategy rather than trading
Retirees believe you can't teach old dogs new tricks & trading seems out of their reach so they start off investing in listed investment companies (LICs), Index Funds or just a handful of Banks to play it safe. Investing like this is simple, quick & perceived to be risk free.

AFI and Argo
There are many listed investment companies such as AFI and Argo Investments, both of which I have invested in that has given me access to high quality investments at a low cost. You can keep your investment strategy robust & straightforward by using index funds. The resources are out there to get started without a significant investment strategy, even without much money or knowledge.

Being active
Trading is about taking control of your investments. It's about being active & not passive. You can minimise your risk by learning to sell quickly & decisively. Selling is one of the most underrated & unappreciated tactical tool any trader has. Being quick & nimble to act when the time is right even quicker to retreat and sell at the first sign of trouble. Being a trading wimp really helps.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

The Holy Grail of investing
The truth is that there is no Holy Grail when it comes to investing or trading & there is no easy and simple answer to be consistently profitable in the stock market. The best approach to the market is highly subjective as @Muschu is finding out. The best approach depends primarily on you and your particular strengths and weaknesses.

Profiting from the stock market
Profiting from the stock market is exceedingly difficult to do consistently over a long period of time because the market is irrational and emotional. It moves in a manner that has little appreciation for what we might think is reasonable. When the market goes down, it tends to sink further than seems possible. When it rallies, the moves often last longer than seems logical. If you try to apply common sense and logic to the market, you will end up quite frustrated.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

What’s happening to the markets.
If you read @bigdog "nyse-dow-jones-finished-today" thread each day it has an underlying theme of "Yo-Yo" trading due to the prospects or perceived progress in the trade war between the U.S. and China & frankly I'm getting a bit over it.

WHY?
Traders at the moment have a "sell first and ask question later mentality," as worries about the US economy continued to rattle investors spooking the markets. Traders realise tariffs are a handbrake on trade, the lifeblood of the markets proving Trump's trade war with China is dragging on traders confidence.

Uncertainty
Traders hate uncertainty & its appears it’s the same each day when it comes to Wall Street. US markets are not only having choppy weeks at the moment but also they are having choppy daily trading sessions, fluctuating hundreds of points.

Yo-Yo trading
It's hard to handle Yo-Yo trading & it's even harder to get a handle on it.

In conclusion
"Yo-Yo trading plays havoc with systematic trading"

Skate.

 

[aus_trader]

In conclusion
"Yo-Yo trading plays havoc with systematic trading"

So true, I think it plays havoc with any type of directional trading method as the markets chop around.

 

[Skate]

So true, I think it plays havoc with any type of directional trading method as the markets chop around.

@aus_trader you are spot on the money with that comment.

Trading price fluctuations.
System trading can heavily improve your decision making process, as all your decisions will be rule based & not discretionary. Keeping an eye on the important events & their implications is not essential if you trade purely based on technical analysis.

News items & tweets
Monitoring the news to make trading decisions can have a negative effect on my trading results even though I read @bigdog thread each day. I strictly focus on the technical side of trading as opposed to the fundamentals because price action is more important giving me a clear indication of how the market is performing. News items & tweets can affect the markets over the short-term but the longer-term trend is usually unaffected.

In my opinion
Pessimists cannot be successful traders because they’ll always be fearful & cynical about the outcome of every trade. Their emotions will drive their decisions making process even if they are systemic traders & sometimes it will get the better of them. Optimists in turn will look at the brighter side & hope for the best. (in my case I pray a lot)

Skate.

 

[investtrader]

yo yo ... more commonly called whipsaw

This has probably been posted somewhere on this forum but worth posting again. Great stuff!!

 

[qldfrog]

I

@aus_trader you are spot on the money with that comment.

Trading price fluctuations.
System trading can heavily improve your decision making process, as all your decisions will be rule based & not discretionary. Keeping an eye on the important events & their implications is not essential if you trade purely based on technical analysis.

News items & tweets
Monitoring the news to make trading decisions can have a negative effect on my trading results even though I read @bigdog thread each day. I strictly focus on the technical side of trading as opposed to the fundamentals because price action is more important giving me a clear indication of how the market is performing. News items & tweets can affect the markets over the short-term but the longer-term trend is usually unaffected.

In my opinion
Pessimists cannot be successful traders because they’ll always be fearful & cynical about the outcome of every trade. Their emotions will drive their decisions making process even if they are systemic traders & sometimes it will get the better of them. Optimists in turn will look at the brighter side & hope for the best. (in my case I pray a lot)

Skate.

Am deeply pessimistic but also scientifically minded..which does not help my like count in the global warming and trump related threads
System trading is the only way i can extract myself from negative trading influences
I believe hope that the pessimistic side will be avoided that way

 

[myrtie100]

Hahaha that Whipsaw Song is hilarious!
I especially like the line "File the News", excellent idea - filed in the circular filing cabinet.
That should sort out any pessimism

 

[Knobby22]

Old classic, I have always been very positive, two good trends gets you there.
You have to sell the duds.
You should read the news but ignore the crap. You shouldn't think you are smarter than the market.

 

[aus_trader]

Have seen this song before on ASF I think, but do like it a bit more each time I listen to it. Cheers investtrader.

I am guilty of reading and reacting to the news in the past, even as recently as a year or two ago which I can't hide from as I have documented in my spec trading . But I am getting better at absorbing the good bits of the news and further investigating those and verifying the facts, which I then incorporate into my planning as opposed to jumping in.

 

[Skate]

yo yo ... more commonly called whipsaw - This has probably been posted somewhere on this forum but worth posting again. Great stuff!!

Have seen this song before on ASF I think, but do like it a bit more each time I listen to it. Cheers investtrader.

@investtrader & @aus_trader - the video clip in question "The Whipsaw Song" I've posted this very thread. There is another very important video to watch in the same post - it's all about behavioural science & why "we won't take a bet".

I encourage you to hyperlink to the post & have a watch of the additional short 7 minute video - it's educational while very entertaining.

Found here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1006578/

Skate.

 

[aus_trader]

@investtrader & @aus_trader - the video clip in question "The Whipsaw Song" I've posted this very thread. There is another very important video to watch in the same post - it's all about behavioural science & why "we won't take a bet".

I encourage you to hyperlink to the post & have a watch of the additional short 7 minute video - it's educational while very entertaining.

Found here: https://www.aussiestockforums.com/posts/1006578/

Skate.

Just watched it, thanks Skate. It really simplifies explains clearly the concept of Risk/Reward and win rate, which is what we strive to achieve in our own trading methodologies in order to achieve a +ve edge.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[ducati916]

Profiting from the stock market
Profiting from the stock market is exceedingly difficult to do consistently over a long period of time because the market is irrational and emotional. It moves in a manner that has little appreciation for what we might think is reasonable. When the market goes down, it tends to sink further than seems possible. When it rallies, the moves often last longer than seems logical. If you try to apply common sense and logic to the market, you will end up quite frustrated.

News items & tweets
Monitoring the news to make trading decisions can have a negative effect on my trading results even though I read @bigdog thread each day. I strictly focus on the technical side of trading as opposed to the fundamentals because price action is more important giving me a clear indication of how the market is performing. News items & tweets can affect the markets over the short-term but the longer-term trend is usually unaffected.

Mr Skate;

There would seem to be some cognitive dissonance occurring within yesterday's multiple posts. So my question to you (based on the underlined) which refers to the 'longer term': what then drives the longer term (to which the technicals map)?

jog on
duc

 

[Gringotts Bank]

Having several optimized parameters is fine if the least profitable combination still creates a profitable curve.