Dr Doom - Correction to be 30%

springhill · 11 August 2007

nizar said:
True but after 1929 it took 30 years to get back to breakeven in terms of the index

Surely WW2 which was smack in the middle of that thirty year period, which nearly bankrupted every country that was involved, had some effect in prolonging the downturn nizar? Those were exceptional times, not a shadow of our current global economic climate?

wayneL · 11 August 2007

springhill said:
Surely WW2 which was smack in the middle of that thirty year period, which nearly bankrupted every country that was involved, had some effect in prolonging the downturn nizar? Those were exceptional times, not a shadow of our current global economic climate?

WWII was a boon to the US. It pulled it out of depression.

wayneL · 11 August 2007

yonnie said:
there`s a lot of BS here.

what I want to hear from some-one is:

what are the global fundamentals - are they good enough that the subprime stuff will be forgotten in 6 months time?

is anybody capable of giving a reasoned appraisal?

I wonder if you actually have websites that give a generally trustworthy view of the economy?

thanks

The global fundamentals all rely on further expansion of credit.

That does not seem likely.

theasxgorilla · 11 August 2007

According to the gents over at CXOAG Faber has a 51% hit-rate for predictions.

Which half of the above points are right???

http://www.cxoadvisory.com/gurus/

Garpal Gumnut · 11 August 2007

yonnie said:
there`s a lot of BS here.

what I want to hear from some-one is:

what are the global fundamentals - are they good enough that the subprime stuff will be forgotten in 6 months time?

is anybody capable of giving a reasoned appraisal?

I wonder if you actually have websites that give a generally trustworthy view of the economy?

thanks

Many tipsters have a one eyed view of the market, bulls or bears. People are dynamic, looking for opportunities when one sector dries up, they go looking for another opportunity. The Homer and Marges of the US will have their house repossessed, sell their cars, but will then rent and continue to make do. They might even get fitter! Some guys who got lucky and rose to the top of the investment pile and got to manage millions or billions will go broke or top themselves. The rest of us will just get on with life. The market will recover, maybe next week, maybe next year, maybe 5 years. Its not a big deal. You just have to be lucky and pick the right moment to pile into the market again. Its luck. no chart or advice or seer or pundit will tell you when is the right time to get back in.

Garpal

theasxgorilla · 11 August 2007

springhill said:
Surely WW2 which was smack in the middle of that thirty year period, which nearly bankrupted every country that was involved, had some effect in prolonging the downturn nizar? Those were exceptional times, not a shadow of our current global economic climate?

I think this is true. Economic output (GDP) doesnt necessarily correlate highly with market indices and the reason for this, I believe, is that productivity can increase massively during war time (real or perceived, think Cold War), but due factors like government control over production people dont invest their cash into the sharemarket.

springhill · 11 August 2007

wayneL said:
WWII was a boon to the US. It pulled it out of depression.

Are you suggesting that everytime the US experiences financial trouble they should look overseas for someone to bomb the crap out of? :bigun2: :rocketwho That at least explains Iraq and their intentions towards Iran! Well that and oil

numbercruncher · 11 August 2007

yonnie said:
what are the global fundamentals - are they good enough that the subprime stuff will be forgotten in 6 months time?

The Politicians say the Fundamentals are fantastic, the evidence disagrees with them

It cant be forgotten in 6 months time because the show has only begun, more and more of these mortgages reset each month adding to the carnage.

Didnt the Russians used to say "nothing is surer to happen than once it has been officially denied" ?

I reckon the US federal reserve will practically be forced to drop Interest rates soon which will in turn open another can of worms i thinks!

numbercruncher · 12 August 2007

We can't see it, but the selling is still going on. It's just slower and it's opaque. If the average hedge fund is geared seven times then a $1 redemption leads to $7 of credit market selling. Redemptions create delayed geared selling and every day the unexecuted potential selling is building - because the redemption mechanisms are so slow.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/how-the-crunch-in-credit-bit-wall-street/2007/08/10/1186530616291.html?page=2

That article is a great read.

Miner · 12 August 2007

It is an interesting article and so are the threads.
I noticed there are many comparisons of 1930 crash and great depression. Besides other things in 1930 BRIC did not exist and the technology was not advanced, so was the lack of communication. World was dominated by USA, UK, Germany, Italy and Japan. Russia was a communist country and China / India did not exist in economical map. So let us not panic too much !
IF we see the nearest crash in 1987 it revived in short time. If we see the big crash of 9/11 the market went down and recovered. The golden rule will be watching fundamentals and not to panic. The second will be a fatal mistake by any investor including those mum and dads who know nothing about shares but invested on their shares.
I urge to all investing community that we spread the calm ness even we have lost some good money (I did but not panic striken) and watch the market for a week not committing heavily unless the fundamental is strong.

I am a common Joe Blog and do not have knowledge like many experts in this forum. So please do not think I am telling you how to suck eggs. But I have also seen how experts have failed - because we are all human and even two best economists do not agree with each other.

Regards

Miner

vishalt · 12 August 2007

funny how these hack analysts expect disappointing earnings but each quarter most companies beat/smash them

theasxgorilla · 12 August 2007

Garpal Gumnut said:
You just have to be lucky and pick the right moment to pile into the market again. Its luck. no chart or advice or seer or pundit will tell you when is the right time to get back in.

I have been testing random entry/exit systems for kicks (sick I know) and I have come to agree with this. BUT, I also agree that if you redistribute the wealth among the people and don't change the rules it'll end up back in the hands of the same people again given enough time. Wealth, like winning, seems to involve a certain state of mind.

theasxgorilla · 12 August 2007

vishalt said:
funny how these hack analysts expect disappointing earnings but each quarter most companies beat/smash them

I suspect that has as much to do with the magical application of "general" accounting principals as it does to do with mis-diagnosis of the situation. Hack analysists, particularly those with a bearish slant, mis-diagnose so often because they underestimate the capitalists' ability to window dress and the punters' willingness to fall for it.

tech/a · 12 August 2007

they underestimate the capitalists' ability to window dress and the punters' willingness to fall for it.

A solid reason NOT to follow Fundamentals when deciding on a trade.

yonnie · 12 August 2007

somebody mentioned that if you follow wyckoff, you are able to determine the top and bottoms of markets, waves and minor stuff.

so was that the top @6,4something of the ordinairies?

yonnie · 12 August 2007

tech/a said:
A solid reason NOT to follow Fundamentals when deciding on a trade.

in another thread you said that you will know when the time is there to be out of the market.

are you still in?

Kimosabi · 12 August 2007

yonnie said:
there`s a lot of BS here.

what I want to hear from some-one is:

what are the global fundamentals - are they good enough that the subprime stuff will be forgotten in 6 months time?

is anybody capable of giving a reasoned appraisal?

I wonder if you actually have websites that give a generally trustworthy view of the economy?

thanks

The sub-prime debacle has only just begun.

There's another 18 months of ARM's to reset.

I reckon the correction could be more than 30%.

insider · 12 August 2007

for those who are out... let's hopes so

Sean K · 12 August 2007

I'm still calling contained correction. It's always like this in the middle of all the panic and emotion. Sub prime will effect a % of the market, but it's not going to wipe it out for a sustained period. There's too much money floating about. World economies are powering. Interest rates low. Low unemployment. We might be peaking, but that doesn't create a crash. I wait to be proven wrong.

insider · 12 August 2007

Of course Kennas... I think whoever is on the bulls side or the bears side in the end it's all just wishful thinking

Dr Doom - Correction to be 30%

springhill

Make the drill work for YOU

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

wayneL

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

Garpal Gumnut

Ross Island Hotel

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

springhill

Make the drill work for YOU

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

numbercruncher

Beware of Dropbears

Miner

vishalt

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

theasxgorilla

Problem solved... next bubble.

tech/a

No Ordinary Duck

yonnie

yonnie

Kimosabi

insider

Sean K

Moderator

insider

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Dr Doom - Correction to be 30%

Make the drill work for YOU

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!

Problem solved... next bubble.

Ross Island Hotel

Problem solved... next bubble.

Make the drill work for YOU

Beware of Dropbears

Beware of Dropbears

Problem solved... next bubble.

Problem solved... next bubble.

No Ordinary Duck

Moderator

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